About (Russian) Government. Fast Thoughts.

MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. The Russian government will consist exclusively of highly-qualified professionals, Acting Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He stressed that the objectives for the future Cabinet set by the president had been enshrined in the Executive Order on Russia’s National Goals and Strategic Objectives to 2024 signed on Monday. When asked whether the new Cabinet, which is expected to consist of those deputy prime ministers who had previously held senior positions, will be able to fulfill these goals, Peskov noted that the government had not been formed yet. "You haven’t heard (the candidates for) the ministers, wait (until they are appointed)," he said.

It seems that there is a lot of panicky and gloomy mood about re-nomination of Dmitry Medvedev as Russia's Prime Minister and speculation about new (old?) Cabinet configuration. For those who are in such a mood, read below:

Any Russian Government will do whatever Vladimir Putin and Russia's National Security Council tell it to do. 

Dmitry Medvedev is a technical Prime Minister, literally—a caretaker and he was such for a very long time now. He knows his bureaucracy better than anyone, despite the fact that he can sometimes be clumsy and underwhelming. But some preliminary info on the Vice PMs is not bad and appearance of, as an example, Yuri Borisov in such a position is a very good sign. Unlike Dmitry Rogozin, who is a journalist by the education, Borisov offers an immense command, scientific-engineering (Doctor of Sciences) and industry background. In the end, it was him, not Rogozin, who really ran Russia's Military-Industrial Complex and we all know what this complex can do. The same positive goes towards removal of Shuvalov and Dvorkovich from Cabinet. Now, this rumor about Kudrin—he is not going to be, if he appears at all, in any position of power to formulate any policy in government, not to mention nationally. Certainly not as a liaison for negotiation of "surrender" to the West as some suggested. People sometimes simply forget that in modern day Russia it is Putin and his immediate team who formulate policies. I see no signs of him "surrendering". Quite opposite, actually.

My main interest is who will become (if rumors are true) a new Defense Minister instead of Shoigu—that is a huge one. And, of course, one has to ask the question if Lavrov comes back. These questions are by far more important than some speculations on Kudrin. Let's face the cold hard fact—Russia is not building communism. For all nostalgia about those times, overwhelming majority of Russian people do not want a complete return of that system. Taking best form it—and there was a lot of good in it—absolutely! Deal with oligarchs and return stolen wealth? Sure! But the times of total state-control, and ownership, are gone and Russia's reproach with socialism this time around is already very different—it is a way of evolution towards real social state and it is inevitable, Russian culture and history considered. So, my suggestion—just calm down and simply observe actions, not words. In the end, there are many (in fact, very many) tangible successes in the last 4 years—hardly a sign of people not knowing what they are doing, especially with West waging a very real war against Russia. Just buckle up. 

"Strategy".

About "strategy"--the term so abused in pop-media that people simply lost the meaning of strategy as means of attaining desired objective in general, and of the political objectives of a war in a military sense. Allow me to quote my poor dear self (I know, not the ethical thing to do). Here it is, from my piece from last year:

Size does matter and so does range and speed whenever anyone talks about weapons. It seems that there is a great deal of confusion which perpetuates itself in regards to a relatively small Russian military contingent in Syria. The most popular indicator of this confusion is a never ending discussion of a possible American attack on the Russian forces in Syria, primarily on the air base Khmeimim. Can such an attack, once one considers the size of forces US can deploy against Russians, succeed in “defeating” them? ... At issue here is not the fact that Russia is a nuclear superpower—everyone knows that. Even the most rabid American Russophobes know this and can grasp, however slightly, the concept of their poor dears turning into radioactive ash pretty fast if they do the unthinkable, such as attacking Russia proper with nuclear weapons. Syria, however, is a bit different—the escalation to a nuclear threshold could, indeed, be controlled by those who hold a decisive advantage conventionally.

This was written long before Vladimir Putin's speech on March 1 this year. Things changed drastically since then. Against the background of USS Harry Truman CBG doing its thing allegedly against IS targets in Syria, Russia, whose main objective in the area is not to allow the mess there go out of control and deter any suicidal desire to unleash wider conflict made her point today.  

  

Ten MIG-31 fighter jets fitted with Kinzhal air-launched missiles on test combat duty. 

"It is a cutting-edge weapon, namely a hypersonic long-range missile capable of overcoming air and missile defenses. It is invincible, having serious combat might and potential. The MIG-31 is its carrier as the jet is the most fitted for accelerating this missile to required speeds," he said. "In support that it is not something exotic, [I’ll say] today ten jets have gone on test combat duty and are ready for use depending on the situation," Borisov said.

This is a clear cut warning against doing anything stupid since Russia here does control escalation (God forbids) in a precisely conventional (that is non-nuclear)  way--any surface asset of any navy today is simply defenseless against single, not to speak of ten, hyper-sonic Kinzhals' salvo. It is one thing to demonstrate force, totally another--having counter-force capable of defeating any combination of demonstrator's forces. That is precisely the case here with Eastern Mediterranean and Russian bases in Syria. As long as the parties involved understand the strategic score, everything should be fine, otherwise we may be in line for a rather dramatic demonstration of the weapons which already completely redefined  naval warfare and nobody in their own mind wants this demonstration. My feel (hopefully correct) is that American side on a political level (the one which only matters in a decision making process) finally begins to get the "message" from people who do understand real ramifications and that is what was needed from the get go. Russia doesn't want to fight the US and her strategy works. With increasing number of hyper-sonic weapons of Kinzhal or Zircon capabilities being procured the outcome of purely conventional war in the Eastern Med is very easy to predict but I hate to even venture there. 

Over Moscow

Just a small visual representation of the kill-zone with the range of 900 miles being covered with possible drop points for two Kinzhals with Mach=2+ capable Mig-31s launching from immediate readiness from some airfields in Crimea and Krasnodar. It would take roughly 10 minutes to reach a drop zone and then with Mach=10 Kinzhals with their speed of 2+ miles per second having about 900/2=450 seconds, or 7.5 minutes to reach targets in Eastern Med. In all--17-20 minutes to respond. I do not imply anything here--I merely wanted to demonstrate the order of magnitude of ranges and speeds involved. In any possible conflict I don't think that Kinzhals will attack CVN itself. Enough to "peel off" Aegis carrying destroyers and cruisers. That is basically what Borisov said today.   

A Very Sensitive Issue.

These are Russian comment which gained most upvotes to a video of the American Green Berets dying in Niger in October 2017. 

не сдались, молодцы, достойно отстреливались. терпения и выносливости Родным,а погибшим-земля пухом. а гневные отзывы-не обращайте внимания,тряпки диванные только пишут и обиженные твари.

Translation: did not give up fellows, valiantly fought back. Patience and endurance to their Relatives, and to the deceased-the earth in down (Russian for--RIP on birds down)). As for angry responses-do not pay attention, only arm-chair door mats and offended low-lifes write them.  

Another one: 

Жаль,по человечески ! Хоть и Амеры но все же солдаты ! 

Translation: so humanly sorry. Although Americans but soldiers. 

Now this from ABC this Wednesday:

Four Army special operations soldiers killed in action during an ambush in Niger last October were part of a largely inexperienced and lightly-armed team outmatched by ISIS fighters who exploited bad decisions by U.S. commanders, families of the fallen soldiers and other sources briefed on the military investigation told ABC News.“They were left on their own and it was The Alamo. They were abandoned,” the parent of one of the American commandos who died told ABC News. “The sad thing is, they didn’t realize they’d been left behind, and by the time the other guys attempted to get to them, it was probably too late, and they’d been killed.”

The reason this whole story came to my attention was this article in TAC yesterday about surviving US Afghan War veteran. And the word which dominated this piece was "futility". But here is a conundrum, and a moral one for me personally--I supported the US war in Afghanistan even before 9-11, after--that was a no-brainer, but 17 years later what do we have? Apart from idiotic meme of "war on terror" (how one "fights" terror is beyond me) the whole idea that one can and must fight Jihad was completely discredited by US actions in Iraq, Libya and Syria--places where Arab leaders (all right, for politically correct--dictators) were natural allies in this fight, not to mention another "dictator"--a Russian one. All that was squandered for neocon criminal agenda of fighting wars in the ME for the benefit of Israel and Saudi Arabia, while neglecting the fight which must have been waged. In Syria today US almost openly supports Al Qaeda and ISIS outlets. I am not talking about despicable lap-dogs of UK and France. 

But the issue, of course, is much larger than merely operational or tactical--a failure for which four real American heroes paid with their lives. The issue is cultural and social. There are many ways of dealing with them--not just some COIN "strategies" or ideological-political mantras repeated by US policy-makers most of whom never served a day in the uniform but most of whom bear responsibility for the US uselessly squandering all huge pool of the good will, say, Russians had towards the United States in the immediate wake of the 9-11 tragedy. Even here, the United States wanted to stay exceptional and refused to recognize that, no matter how dramatic despicable acts on 9-11 were, Russia by that time was fighting Islamic Jihad international in Northern Caucasus for 7 years, with some 30 000 Russian civilians simply gone as a result of genocide in Chechnya and a string of terrorist acts all over Russia, including taking the whole maternity ward hostage in the town of Budyonnovsk. US media cheered for Chechen "freedom-fighters" and condemned Russian authorities. 

Yet, very few Americans know that Russia made a gift to the United States after 9-11, a monument:

Russians know that the real fight is not futile, it just has to be fought differently--not the way United States did it for the last 17 years. For that, the United States must change dramatically, but will it? I don't know, but it is needed to make sure that the lives of  Staff Sgt. Dustin Wright, 29, Staff Sgt. Bryan Black, 35, an Army support enabler, Staff Sgt. Jeremiah Johnson, 39 and Sgt. La David Johnson, 25 were not lost in vain. The fight is not futile when it has clear goals and real intent. This is my off the caff thought for Friday.

About 22800.

Thanks to the efforts of wonderful professionals and naval enthusiasts from Airbase, behold, as was promised, the third Project 22800 Small Missile Ship Shkval (Squall) with navalized Pantsir. The ship should "hit" the water after tomorrow, May 5. 

 

These small (800 tons of standard displacement) ships which also are classified sometimes as corvettes pack an enormous long-range punch, now they also have a system to fight back those who may decide to strike back. This occasion also marks the official entrance of Pantsir into the service with Russian Navy. The occasion is more important than it may seem. Navalization of what became arguably the best gun-missile short range (20 kilometers) air defense complex in the world means that this system will be installed on remaining 15 ships of this class, plus it will see service elsewhere on larger ships. One would be safe to assume that similar ships, granted with downgraded export versions of 3M54 and P-800 Onyx (Yakhont) will have, if not already, an immense export potential.  Admirals Teophile Aube and Popov would have been happy. Mahan? Well... that is a separate discussion.  

UPDATE: and she is afloat. What a little elegant beast. 

   

Ironic Smile.

And a face-palm to boot. US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman's recent statement in Vladivostok, I am sure, saw many smiling faces at the round-table he was speaking to. People were smiling (ironically) against the background of remote but recognizable thunderous Homeric laughter which was heard from huge open spaces and all nooks and crannies of Russia's 11 (or is it 10 now?) time zones.  In what can only be described as a bad joke, Huntsman stated that President Trump:

has said repeatedly that he wants a better relationship with Russia. Repeatedly. And he has said quite clearly that he would like to engage personally with President Putin. Every time I’ve met with President Trump or talked with him about this subject, many times now, he’s said the same thing. From day one ... I think my President is very sincere when he says that he wants a stable, predictable, manageable U.S.-Russia relationship. And I think President Putin would like the same thing.

Obviously, people are free to think and say whatever they want. I, for once, from day one was very sincere in my desire to become first a firefighter, then cosmonaut and then a manager of an electric power substation, but life influenced a minuscule insignificant, in a larger scheme of things, me in a very different way. All my sincerity went out of the window and I ended up receiving an equivalent of M.S. in naval engineering and B.S. in what is defined as military sciences. Oops. So much for me being "sincere" when pursuing my desires.  

President Trump is not a minuscule insignificant person--the opposite is true. By the virtue of the Office he occupies he is an extremely important person in a global sense. Yet, as none other than Machiavelli stated: "The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him."(c) Right. Do I have to continue form here? I will. I already elaborated on the fact that I don't buy anymore all this Trump is a hostage of the Deep State" narrative. Trump is not a hostage and, frankly, these almost two-year long "signaling" of desires to be for everything good and against everything bad in US-Russian relations are not borne out by reality. There is not a single fact which testifies to any desire to have any normal relations to Russia and the issue here is not that Trump doesn't want that. The issue here is HOW Trump wants these relations—he wants them on US conditions and that is not a "deal". It is the same good ol' exceptionalist diktat approach which led the world to the brink and US to an increasingly pronounced decline. This approach, obviously, is not going to work with Russia, it already didn't work, and even if Russians understand (they do) that Trump is driven by the politics of November 2018 mid-term elections, nobody in Russia (with exception of fanatic Russophobe liberals) gives a damn anymore about what White House thinks. A simple fact of the matter is that at this stage Russian-American relations are wrecked beyond any repair. Trump may want whatever he wants but US Establishment is unanimous in seeing Russia as the enemy number one and Russians also know this damn well.

In the end, Donald Trump sees Russia as merely a temporary disposable utility and he cannot see Russia otherwise, once one considers a full totality of "intelligence" on Russia which is being spread from the American very political top down to mere mortals. As Patrick Armstrong's yesterday's piece title correctly says:

           No, Your Intelligence Is Actually Bad. Very Bad

As you may all know, I wrote a whole book on how bad, in fact, atrocious this "intelligence" is. Also on how dangerous it is. And it is very dangerous, since yet another "Chemical Weapons" provocation is being readied in Syria (in Russian) and we may see, yet again, Trump's desires, as an example, to "withdraw" from Syria being dashed. I am not even sure he can predict himself, what I am sure, though, is that Mr. Bolton is in a good position to give some insane "advice" and, oh, the irony, we may again hope that the only adult in Trump's Administration, James "Mad Dog" Mattis will have enough power of persuasion to prevent a dangerous escalation which may lead to a catastrophic global consequences.

So, Mr. Huntsman may say whatever he wants but he cannot undo a massive damage which was dealt to a global strategic stability and Russian-American relations by this very same President who allegedly wants all those wonderful things with Russia. Nobody of any position of power wants anything positive with Russia in Washington D.C. And that is the reality of it, including the Machiavellian reality of Trump's Administration infested with Russophobes, American "exceptionalists" and neocons—a precise combination of ignoramuses which made modern United States not capable of any treaties or agreements, which are not worth the paper they are written on. 

It is a very sad state of the affairs and repeating diplomatic mantras will not help it. The worst part is that practically nobody in D.C. with the exception of some real military professional people in Pentagon and possibly few in the so called Intelligence Community understand that the only American "relations" with Russia possible at this current moment are those of negotiations about an American role in a new, very visible and tangible, world. But even this opportunity is being missed. What comes after that? If we avoid a global war, the most likely outcome will be the "signing" of the terms of capitulation by the US. I know it sounds humiliating and I personally don't like this outcome, so to avoid one it is either now, in the very nearest future, or… well.  The time of words has ended and the US has only itself to blame in this matter. If Donald Trump cannot do it, then what are his words or his Office worth?         

   

I Think WALL-E and Eva Had A Child.

There is no denial of absolutely endearing, charming and lovely relations between WALL-E and Eva in the cartoon which will now live forever as an enduring monument to love and simply as a stunning masterpiece of a cartoon film-making. But, those robots sure as hell did have relations, I think. And they had a child, or brigade or two of them, wink, wink.

                                             +

    

                                = 

LOL:

  

 

Nuclear Titanic?

I am no specialist in "energy" issues, but what was labeled in the West (of course) a Nuclear Titanic (or Floating Chernobyl, if one prefers), still departed to sea and eventually should be towed to Vilyuchinsk on Kamchatka. 

Yet, no matter what one says--and to be sure many "environmentalists" are going apoplectic in the West and in Russia--Akademik Lomonosov floating Nuclear Power Station is an incredible feat of real hi-tech engineering. 

Displacing 21,500 tons, this "barge" is capable of providing electric energy for the cities with population of up to 200,000 people. Vilyuchinsk (aka Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky-50) being the main base of Russia's Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines (in reality it is Rybachyi which is right across Vilyuchinsk) seems a natural place for it, even in a purely dramatic sense, the town is stuffed with nuclear power and propulsion to the hilt anyway and will continue to see new arrivals of nuclear powered submarines in the near future. Two of Borey-class (project 955) strategic missile submarines are already based there, more are coming, including newest Yasen-class (project 885) SSGNs and modernized Oscars (project 949A) all getting there.  In general, Russia's Far East will need more energy, especially for cities growing along the coast and this type of energy supply seems very convenient. 

Of course, once one speaks about Kamchatka, one should always remember that it is a very seismic area (I can confirm that first hand) and some parts facing Pacific of this huge peninsula are known to be subjected to tsunamis, some of them very large. But Vilyuchinsk, together with Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky didn't see a serious tsunami, even with consideration of a couple big ones, earthquakes, striking Petropavlovsk in 1970s, for many decades. In fact--centuries for Petropavlovsk. Krasheninnikov Bay also seems to offer good protection. And then, of course, as tragic experience with Kursk demonstrated--Kursk's reactors automatically shut down, upon catastrophe unfolding, as was designed. In this sense Lomonosov's reactors safety is way better than of any land-built nuclear power station, especially in seismic areas, and especially so incompetently, if not negligently, engineered as was the case with Fukushima. So, we will see if this historic first will turn out to be a Nuclear Titanic or will simply work for many years as a reliable source of energy for future settlements along the coastline.