About White Noise, Again.

Larry is doing a superb job of breaking through the white noise and tactical minutiae constantly, now Saker did a good write up on all this tactical-operational BS. 

In Russian there is an expression “this is unpleasant/upsetting but not dangerous” (это обидно, но не опасно).  I think that this fully applies here: nobody in Russia is particularly happy about what is taking place (except maybe the Russian General Staff IF we assume that this is all a big trap the Russians deliberately created, and there is some evidence for that as the force concentrations prior to this attack were reported by numerous observers, so it was hardly a secret that the Ukronazis were about to attack somewhere in the northeast).  But we need to really keep aware of the proportions of what is happening: after six months of warfare, this is the first and only Ukrainian attack which shows some real capabilities, and it is all limited to a rather narrow corridor within the Russian tactical defenses only!  As I said, these are strong tactical attacks and clashes, but the size of them does not even amount to a real “battle” or “offensive”, at least not in the military sense of the word.

So, it is a tedious task to explain to laymen all intricacies of operations, real ones, and what comes in their planning. But I will add even more gravitas to this whole thing--strategy, a real one, not some BS "taught" in political science courses. 

Here is me yesterday trying to draw the larger scheme of things:

Defining this whole affair as a white noise created by tactical minutiae. The hardest thing in life is grasping this seemingly simple principle of the "in the grand scheme of things". What we are facing today is a complete remake of the world order and, effectively, a wrap-up of the 20th century with real victors coming back for their spoils. But describing this is a whole other matter and that is why I tell my publisher about the new book--not yet, not yet...

First Reactions.

Saker today posted on UNZ Review a thorough and excellent analysis of political implications of Putin's March 1st speech. There are already first meaningful, unlike Western media incompetent BS, reactions from US establishment which begin to pour in. They are exactly what Putin and Russia were aiming at. Consider this yesterday's letter from US senators. 

Amid Heightened Tension, Markey, Merkley, Feinstein, and Sanders Press Trump Administration to Jumpstart New Strategic Talks with Russia

While this letter is still full of BS and lies, it is, however, very instructive in terms of revealing a deep rooted, even on the highest levels of American political power, misconception of Russia's intentions. The whole thing is not just about START, albeit this too, it is about much larger global strategic framework which seeks more than just nuclear arms control, however important--it is about, indeed, as I stated a week ago, coercing the United States into the discussion of the whole spectrum of international problems, most important of which is immediate necessity to stop military conflicts in the ME and making sure the United States takes realistic position on that. 

For the last 20 years the United States was going around the world, from Yugoslavia, to Iraq, to Libya, to Syria, to Ukraine, inciting conflicts, murder, atrocities all in the name of fictitious "values" of which the world just about had enough. This stops now. As the US senators letter states:

There is no guarantee that we can make progress with Russia on these issues.  However, even at the height of Cold War tensions, the United States and the Soviet Union were able to engage on matters of strategic stability.  Leaders from both countries believed, as we should today, that the incredible destructive force of nuclear weapons is reason enough to make any and all efforts to lessen the chance that they can never be used again.  

I have some news for them--there is a guarantee, because the world changed and US policy-makers are about to learn how much. It is, obviously, not a very pleasant process for many "exceptional" people but it is about time they started learning how to behave responsibly. Paradoxically, this may be the only way to preserve the United States and turn it into normal country behaving like equal among equals. This letter might be (???) the first step. After all, and I quote myself: 

American self-proclaimed hegemony is over where it really matters for any real and perceived hegemon—the military field. It was over for some time now, it just took Putin’s speech to demonstrate the good old Al Capone truism that one can get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone. After all, Russia did try a kind word alone, it didn’t work and the United States has only itself to blame.