In Theory I Should ...

 ... say Hooray, gallic pride (LOL) is back and people are protesting. Nah, it is all BS. 

French citizens expressed mass indignation at the appearance of soldiers of the Kyiv regime at the solemn procession in honor of Bastille Day. Residents of France reacted harshly to the publication of President Emmanuel Macron on the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation), RIA Novosti reports. The French leader posted video footage of the march of Ukrainian units at the main national holiday. "It's a shame to see the French armed forces marching alongside the Banderites. Russia is the only bulwark against fascism and Western decline," wrote one of the commentators under the post of head of state. Other users noted the inadmissibility of the presence of an army sympathetic to Nazi collaborators on the Champs-Elysees. Some users advised Macron to seek medical help because of his pride in such an event. Earlier, the leader of the right-wing Patriots party, Florian Filippo, also called the participation of the Ukrainian military in the celebrations on July 14 a disgrace.

Oh, come on, France--you voted for that, consistently. Enjoy.

No sympathy from me--your destiny is to march with Nazis and then disappear as people (the process is long under way). So, it doesn't matter who and how "protest" on X--the world saw the opening ceremony of Paris Olympics. 

When I State ...

 ... that professional level of NATO's top brass is appalling, I mean it. Here is French Admiral Vandier living la vida loca in La La Land. If he believes this amateurish BS he spews, what can I say ... 

Somebody has to tell him that his "exquisite" high precision weapons are outranged and outpaced by any modern strike weapon in Russian arsenal (we omit here comparison of numbers--the difference is two orders of magnitude) and that if he still thinks that Russia wants to invade Europe--thanks, but no thanks. If he wants to invade himself--his kindergarten military concepts are not going to help--he and his country will cease to exist. As Stalin once said about Soviet writers: "I have no other writers for you". I will rephrase--I have no other top brass for you. 

In Continuation Of ...

... statistics issue. Keep in mind, just for understanding what is going on--UK produces the best AD missile Europe managed to develop, Aster-30, at a rate of ... one per month. France and Germany do not fare much better. 

PARIS, July 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine and key Western allies on Monday announced an air-defence coalition that would include jointly developing a new anti-ballistic missile system as an alternative and cheaper solution to the U.S. Patriot system. With Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian ballistic missiles, ‌leaders gathered in Paris for a summit, where 10 countries, along with about a dozen firms from the defence sector, met to press on with ‌what they called the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition.

Considering a very low professional level of European militaries and R&D sector, apart from economic woes, it is difficult to explain that wholesale damage to NATO stooge in 404 is produced by what is called combined (комбинированные) strikes which include in themselves (in fact--majority) such means as drones, cruise missiles (including hypersonic 3M22 Zircon and supersonic P-800 Oniks) AND what amounts to quasi-ballistic maneuvering Iskanders. 

Europe has neither technology nor capability to do anything about it and so the whole "plan" here is for Europe to drown herself in debt and then start buying crappy American systems such as Patriot PAC3. SAMP-Ts, this euro AD complex was produced in "massive" numbers such as ... ahem ... 15 (fifteen) in total. So, well ... this is called defeat and Russians, contrary to Mearsheimer's amateurish concepts of "quick victory", will continue steam-roll NATO's arsenal while choking any attempt, however delusional, on narrowing the gap. Zugzwang. 

Statistics of Failure.

Giving a taste of scale for people who still cannot grasp a clear picture of the US military decline. 

Even theoretical probabilities bankrupt the US, practical ones? It is a race to the bottom. 

Yeah, And?

 As if it is something new. 

Oil prices jumped more than 8% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran, forcing traders to once again price in the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed above $82 per barrel during afternoon trading, gaining more than 8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged past $77 per barrel. Monday’s surge wiped out most of the losses that followed last month’s ceasefire, pushing Brent back above $82 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $77 as traders responded to the renewed fighting.

I am not a specialist in oil, but even I can grasp consequences, especially considering military dynamics in the Gulf where the US is stuck in the trap and cannot free itself from the inexorable march of history. The signs are clear, especially considering an appalling "effectiveness" of the US so called air (lack of) defense. 

Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese navies train. 

People asked me to comment on CNO Admiral Daryl Caudle's ideas about US Navy in his interview to Bloomberg. I will.

Larry Counts Hours ...

 ... as a former CIA analyst is supposed to. 

Let’s follow the timeline. According to the official story: 911 call from his DC residence at 8:30pm ET on July 11 for suspected cardiac arrest. He “died at home.” This is total bullshit! So let’s go thru the timeline. Senator Graham arrived in Kyiv between 09:45–10:45 local on July 10th. The train he took from Poland departed Warsaw at 18:15 hours local on July 9th. It was an overnight train. To arrive in Poland in time to take the 18:15 train, Lindsey would have departed Dulles International Airport at around 0700 local on July 9 — the flight from Dulles to Warsaw is 9 hours. So Lindsey Graham arrives in Kyiv by 11 am Friday morning. He meets with Zelensky and tours a drone factory. Then we are asked to believe that he returns to Washington, DC after spending less than 24 hours on the ground. Again, I call bullshit!! 

The earliest train back to Warsaw departs Kyiv-Pasazhyrskyi at 07:40–08:00 on the 11th and arrives Przemyśl Główny in the afternoon (~17:00–18:00). That is at least nine hours. That would make it roughly 1100 hours in Washington, DC. Let’s assume he has an hour to get to the airport and the plane takes off at 1900 hours local from Poland. The flight going west takes 10 hours… This means the earliest the plane could have landed at Dulles is midnight on the 11th. That is 3 ½ hours after Graham reportedly died at home. As I noted at the outset… The story of Lindsey Graham’s death at home is BULLSHIT!

I agree with Larry--the timeline issue is critical here. Could it be that Lindsey met his end in Kiev? I am not saying it is 100% but the probability is very high that he died in Kiev. Was he an accidental (or maybe deliberate?) victim of Russian strikes at the drone factory he visited or was something else involved in his demise? Who knows. But there is very little doubt that he was a war criminal, warmonger, supporter of terrorism and genocidal maniac. Good riddance. 

Remember The Title ...

 ... of my first book? 

Well, I was wrong--it is not a myopia, it is an utter, sheer lack of vision and grasp of what strategy is. Strategic planning? What planning? 

Key US weapons stockpiles remain significantly depleted and will come under even more intense pressure if strikes against Iran continue at the current rate, as President Donald Trump reiterated Friday that the ceasefire in the conflict is “over.” The situation with armaments could impact the American military’s ability to fight a potential future war with China or even North Korea, experts told CNN. “If the war continues at the rate it’s been going for the last [five] days … it would reduce stockpiles enough that there would be a new, higher level of risk … with the Indo-Pacific,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. The early phase of the Iran conflict, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, saw the US military expend thousands of key missiles used for long-range precision strikes and to defend against enemy air and missile attacks, according to analysts and previous CNN reporting.

Now they say that it may take between two to five years to "replenish"--it is akin to stating that I am between four to seven feet tall. 

But replenishment rates are low for key missiles, Cancian said — according to current fiscal year delivery schedules, the Pentagon is receiving roughly 15 new Tomahawks and 20 new Patriot missiles per month. There are no THAAD deliveries forecast in 2026. CSIS estimated it would take three or more years to rebuild those inventories to pre-Iran war levels.

Well, "pre-Iran levels" is an indicator that the US is incapable to fight even single medium-intensity conflict against subpar opponent and, most importantly, SUSTAIN it, period. This is not to mention the fact that it doesn't matter how many missiles for Patriot PAC3 or THAAD the US produces--the combat effectiveness of these systems is laughable. Are they that incompetent? Yes. Across the board. This is what happens when one gets too high on own supply of a second-rate militarist propaganda and military fairy tales. To illustrate, from three years ago:

This is the expenditure of the Patriot PAC3 missiles by a single battery before being wiped out (aka "slightly damaged" in Pentagonese) together with its combat crew by a single Kinzhal missile. This is half of the monthly production of these missiles by the US in a single tactical episode which lasted less than a minute. Count yourself.