Russian MoD.

 Statement: 

In accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, V.V. Putin, a truce is declared for May 8–9, 2026, in honor of the celebration of the Soviet people's Victory in the Great Patriotic War. We expect the Ukrainian side to follow this example. At the same time, we have taken note of a statement made by the head of the Kyiv regime in Yerevan at the European Political Community summit, which contains threats to strike Moscow specifically on May 9. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the festive events. Should the Kyiv regime attempt to carry out its criminal plans with the aim of disrupting the celebration of the 81st anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will launch a retaliatory, massive missile strike against the center of Kyiv. Russia—despite possessing the capabilities to do so—has previously refrained from such actions for humanitarian reasons. We warn the civilian population of Kyiv and the staff of foreign diplomatic missions of the necessity to leave the city in a timely manner.

This is for bloodthirsty fanboys who want to make a show out of war. Here is for your consideration. That will be a demonstration (if it comes to it) of what will happen then to Paris or London, or Berlin, which is long overdue for stone rearrangement. I am talking about conventional strikes. 

Simon Watkins Is ...

 ... a hot air balloon trying to cope with his little cozy universe born out of ignorance coming crushing down on him. He is an academic fraud with degree in journalism and English literature from Oxford. That means he has no serious education or background other than in speculation with virtual assets. He is also British, and that exacerbates the whole situation for the guy who is not really a professional. So, he pulls BS out of his ass. 

Iran has a long history of being screwed over by Russia, and last week’s meeting in Moscow between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the U.S.–Israel–Iran war suggests nothing in that dynamic is about to change, according to extremely well-placed sources on both sides who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com over the weekend. On the one hand, Tehran’s perennially baseless optimism that “this time will be different” was on full display in Araghchi’s excited praise for the marvels of the two countries’ so called ‘strategic relationship’. On the other hand, Moscow responded with all the warmth of an international telephone operator: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that Russia stands ready to offer “goodwill or mediation services”, with no indication of any upgrade to the relationship service package. It fits so neatly into the familiar pattern of this abusive relationship that one wonders whether social services should be called. Or perhaps Moscow’s disinterest is merely an act — a way of masking the deep and broad assistance from Tehran that it so clearly craves?

First, let's clear something upfront--Oilprice has NO "well-placed sources" in Moscow. None, zilch. This derives from the fact that unlike tabloid-ridden shithole of London drowned in scandals, Moscow takes its contacts at the highest political level extremely seriously and keeps them out of reach of media (and MI6, not to speak about some losers from Oilprice) leaving Peskov to deliver classic diplomatic platitudes for general public--frustrating for tabloid-"educated" frauds like Watkins. So, Watkins, who has no idea about how strategic relations are built and, especially, how assistance is provided, simply makes shit up. He simply has no tool kit to grasp what ISR is and why the US has been humiliated. 

In related news, even Watkins' resource, which deals in virtual non-physical BS shows today:

Which means physical oil selling for $140 and up. But come to think about it, they do have their "sources" in Moscow--a collection of cherub graduates of VShE who sit as clerks in all kinds of offices and collect all kinds of BS rumors about Kremlin. But in the end, Watkins' sanctimonious mind cannot take the fact that Russia is awash in cash, while Anglo-world as a whole is paraded as impotent. Boy, that's gotta hurt. 

Getting Ready ...

 ... for the new work week.

As Promised ...

 ... back to Operations' fundamentals. Or why West loses wars. 

Bayesian.

My video today (it should be available for everyone in an hour or so) talks about what this blog and my YT especially are all about from the inception. Sure, visuals, explosions, drones, tanks, aircraft and red and blue arrows on maps (which are as far removed from real military maps as possible, with some exceptions you all know) that the nature of war and REAL combat has been completely drowned in this tactical minutiae by all kinds of fanboys who never served a day in uniform as a grunt, forget about officer rank with real military experience. At some point all this pseudo-military noise gets to you and I used today's lull in "political news" to deliver some doze of war reality as seen from those who plan and execute those plans in REAL war. 

So, the primer to those who never heard about Markov Chains or Bayes and Bayesian Networks. This is not difficult on a conceptual level. 

Bayesian statistics combines prior knowledge with new data to make decisions. It provides a flexible way to update beliefs as new information becomes available. Unlike traditional methods, Bayesian statistics quantifies uncertainty and provides a more dynamic view of data. This article explains basic ideas like prior knowledge, likelihood, and updated beliefs. It also shows how Bayesian statistics is used in different areas. 

Here is a key and also the entrance into Operational ART. Why it is called such.

Bayesian statistics provides a probabilistic framework for reasoning under uncertainty. It is valuable in scenarios with limited data or prior knowledge. At its core is Bayes’ Theorem:

Here: 

• P(θ∣D) is the posterior probability: The updated probability of the parameter θ after observing the data D
• P(D∣θ): is the likelihood: The probability of observing the data D given the parameter θ
• P(θ) is the prior probability: The initial belief about the parameter θ before considering the data
• P(D) is the marginal likelihood: The overall probability of the observed data D for all possible values of θ

Do you see what is highlighted yellow and underlined? Well I will repeat again what real military professionals are dealing with--RESOLUTION of UNCERTAINTIES. And here comes the main issue--why West loses its wars. Speaking plainly--it has fucked up beliefs both in enemy's capabilities and gross overestimation of own ones. This clusterfuck hasn't been fixed, it is impossible to fix. Not with present crop of NATO planning officer corps which is largely incompetent, arrogant and lacking military culture required for the war of the XXI century. It has been proven empirically time after time since 2022. It is institutional catastrophe. So, here is my little introduction to COGNET and how you POPULATE networks and how handling beliefs (yes, Bayesian Networks are belief networks) and uncertainties separates a true operational artist from some three-star ass-kisser. This is your frame of mind you need to understand what is in my today's video about how operational planning is done. 

Iyah May.

No comments. She said it all. 

It Doesn't Matter.

The thing which many people still don't get--Russia negotiates for the sake of negotiations. I don't know how many times I have to explain this:

Ukrainian officials are expressing frustration as U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner repeatedly visit Moscow but delay a promised trip to Kyiv. The hesitation reflects both stalled Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks and Washington’s focus on the Iran conflict, raising concerns in Kyiv that U.S. diplomacy is no longer balanced. Polls cited in local analysis show most Ukrainians doubt U.S.-led negotiations will succeed, with only a minority viewing the U.S. as a reliable partner.

It was repeated by Russian side, including two days ago in Putin's call to Trump that ALL aims of SMO will be achieved. There will be NO "settlement", there will be capitulation either willingly or through full physical annihilation of 404 as a country. 

Meanwhile, POTUS--tell me this is AI? 

Per possible resumption of attacks on Iran. My take, after I recovered from Homeric laughter form Larry's description of the matter:

Donald Trump must have stayed at a Holiday Inn last night because when he departed the White House on Friday to head to Florida to give a speech at The Villages, geriatric community known for Sexually Transmitted Diseases, he thought he was a lawyer. Friday, May 1st, marked the day that he is required by the War Powers Act to seek Congressional approval to continue the war in Iran. But Trump, thinking like an ambulance-chasing attorney, announced that the war with Iran is over.

Is that you cannot put anything, including the most stupid and senseless thing, past this POTUS. Including, of course, a resumption of attacks and even "ground operations" with the force so inadequate for achieving any sensible results that it WILL result in heavy casualties for the US military. Well, what can I say--pop-corn time.