Have been up since 3:30 AM today (had to drive friend to airport). Tired. Go at it.
Friday, April 4, 2025
Thursday, April 3, 2025
About This Cavoli Statement ...
... which everyone discusses. It is for Senate Armed Services Committee, and it is filled with 404 propaganda.
Russian forces on the frontlines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force. Russia is not just reconstituting service members but is also replacing combat vehicles and munitions at an unprecedented pace. Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year—but is on pace to replace them all. Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes. As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.) Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined. Not all of Russia’s military capability has been degraded by the war.
I have news for those who read this. There was never any doubt that Russia outproduces a whole NATO combined, but Russia didn't lose "400 air defense systems" or "13, 000" artillery pieces. Combat math simply doesn't support these fictitious numbers. Russia surely did lose some AD systems and a number of artillery pieces, but those numbers are nowhere near this fantasy. Well, at least he admitted the other part. Numbers of tanks and armored vehicles are also extremely exaggerated. Especially when considering COFM.
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Nothing New Here ...
... and it was discussed on so many occasions.
The US military would be unprepared for a protracted war with China due to shortcomings in the defense industrial base, President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Joint Chiefs of Staff has said. In his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday – part of the confirmation process – retired Lieutenant General John Caine stressed that rivalry with China remains one of the most pressing issues facing the US. ”The threat posed by China to American interests in the Indo-Pacific is real and growing. The US needs to work with allies and partners to deter China’s aggression in this region,” he claimed.
Let's rewind a little bit. It is 1971 and Nixon jumps off the ship of the Gold Standard. Behind all "investment" and monetary psychobabble hiding the reason for that was, of course, Vietnam War, which towers as the main reason for Nixon Shock. The US of 1971 industry-wise would make modern US look like a third world country but even then, the US couldn't sustain it.
John Caine is correct, however, when pointing this out:
He added, however, that Beijing “still has deficiencies in commander proficiency, long-distance logistics, urban warfare, and… modern warfare experience writ large.”
What he forgets to say is that the US also lacks such an experience and in terms of combined arms of scale the US, largely self-proclaimed, "lead" is gone forever--continental warfare imposes a completely different set of conditions and requirements on the nation-state with which the US is simply unfamiliar. Not to be outdone, however, are these guys:
FIRST ON FOX: A group of influential conservatives and lawmakers is warning the Trump administration that the U.S. does not have the tactical nuclear weapons to fight China if war breaks out in the Indo-Pacific. A 13-minute video obtained by Fox News Digital and set for release Thursday by the Heritage Foundation argues the U.S. nuclear arsenal is outdated, with the newest weapons nearly 40 years old – about as modern as a grandpa's vintage Corvette. Military experts across Washington have begun gaming out the potential scenario if China invades Taiwan and the U.S. comes to the island democracy’s aid.
They are also not wrong when stating that the US nuclear arsenal is outdated. No, these are not physical nukes which are outdated, these are delivery systems which are nothing more than classic ballistic ICBMs which are facing their greatest challenge of preserving the credibility against the background of (primarily Russian) fast developing anti-ballistic and anti-hypersonic capabilities. But whenever the term "democracy" is used--I laugh. So, popcorn, popcorn ... bring it on))
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