US "Intelligence" Community ...

 ... distinguished itself primarily with creation of fairy tales (aka narratives) and utter military incompetency. 

Russia plans to inflict maximum damage on Kyiv's energy sector by August 24 without waiting for autumn, Ukrainian media reported, citing the US intelligence community. It is reported that the Russian Army can even use a strategic reserve of ballistic missiles for strikes in order to achieve the maximum effect by the celebration of Independence Day.

This is a hallmark of the US military "intel" which is built around US military psyche like trying to tie some operations by Russian military to some "significant" date--a post traumatic addiction to Soviet dissidents' BS about Red Army doing things (like liberation of Kiev in 1943). This all is a result of historic and operational-strategic illiteracy, like applying fairy tales from WW II to modern warfare. 

Secondly, most of them will not understand a) what strategic reserves are, b) that Russia produces the number of long-range (stand-off) weapons of ALL kinds, INCLUDING quasi-ballistic Iskanders, in volumes which are order (now orders) of magnitude larger than what the US can produce, c) that in terms of latest iterations of UAVs of a long-range class such as Geraniums and Banderols (this is in effect a light cruise missile) reaching one thousand daily (like in 24 hours)--these numbers are beyond their grasp. I mean it literally--no US military and intel professional ever dealt with such production and casualties numbers ever, insofar as the last half-a-century goes. 

In fact, Russia's real military and intel professionals when making operational and strategic level assessments of the US war-making and war-fighting capability smile ironically. 

In the end, it was Pentagon and collection of its chihuahuas from UK, Germany, France et al who managed to kill almost 3 million of 404 males and resorted, naturally, to terrorism and war crimes. We are observing a train wreck in progress. 

Meanwhile, Russian Army liberated Western part of Malaya Tockmachka. 

The storm of Orekhov has commenced. 

You can see yourself where it is all going. 

In related news, they are correct ...

Nobody will be able to do anything about it. Nobody will even try. 

Well, It Is Not ...

 ... for off-ramp for Trump or the US, it is for off-ramp for Pentagon geniuses who now are soiling themselves trying to calculate the probability of the wrecking ball of the blame for the FUBAR everywhere, from 404 to Iran, hitting them on their heads, with the proverbial rolling after that. 

Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achieve President Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter. “Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly. Caine is not alone in his view that the war has reached a crossroads. He has discussed concerns about the military options for escalating the conflict and raised the prospect of finding an off-ramp from the war with other key Cabinet officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, two of the sources said. The top US general has recently side-barred with some of those key, like-minded Trump advisers in an effort to facilitate interagency coordination and ensure they are on the same page ahead of meetings with the president. The aim has been to make clear the limitations and pitfalls of the available military options, including those that do not involve putting US boots on the ground, the sources said. “I think it is just his way of protecting the military,” one of the sources told CNN, referring to Caine’s discussions with other top national security officials within Trump’s cabinet about the Iran war.

They are protecting their behinds because none of them had courage and integrity to resign in protest to the insanity Trump and his Israeli handlers planned. And, of course, we all recall how Trump promised to end the war in 404 "in 24 hours". It is all about who is going to be left holding the bag with excrement. Bunch of losers and war criminals. 

Plans For the Weekend ...

 ... no, really)) 

For military porn--here is SU-35 doing what SU-35 does. 

Never forget, Russian Air Force performed dismally and is grounded)) 

"Tactical" Nukes ...

... are not going to help. All of it is an admission of being a weak conventional force. Russia went through it in 1990s but she always had mechanism for recovery, the US does not. Colby got the whiff of that--too bad he will not understand, neither will Pentagon generals, what real war is. 

US Lack of "Intel" ...

 ... and their "assessments" are done only for the propaganda reasons. Same as Pentagon's. That is why the US is no good at real war. So, here we have a new pile of bovine excrement.

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to three sources familiar with those reports. The intelligence assessments outline several possible scenarios for Russian escalation, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale incursion intended to challenge NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily crossing the threshold for an allied response, the sources said. While how and when Putin might do so remains an open question, one of the sources said he is most likely to escalate in some way by targeting the Baltics or Poland. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the recent assessments. US and NATO officials believe Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he is unable to secure a face-saving off-ramp to the war with Ukraine, the sources added, noting the Russian president’s window for choosing his next course of action spans between now and the next few years.

Yes, defeating NATO is now called securing "a face-saving-off-ramp". Keep in mind that not only NATO is a paper tiger, but it is a collection of military-intel mediocrities who also happened to be sore losers. The decline is so dramatic, not just in TOE terms, US Armed Forces is a force from 1990s, that is utterly obsolete, that there is no even moral metric left anymore. US Army is being turned into Israeli Army and that's about the level at which it will reside. Per "attack" on NATO "country". Well, Europe will die out on its own--let it rot. "Small-scale incursion"--if this will come, those amateurs in the US "intel" should know that it will become a very large-scale immediately and Brussels, Rammstein and Berlin will cease to exist. But you cannot explain it to them. 

Air-to-Air ...

 ... which is air defense. 

This is to remind you that drone warfare evolves and I posted numbers before--despite some dramatic videos, the actual success rate of 404 UAVs is about 4%. It declined since. Drone against drone is now a normal occurrence and Russia is the first and so far the only country which introduced a new service--Troops of the Unmanned Systems--and established military 5 year academy specifically for educating officer corps for this type of the warfare. Obviously, Russian Navy will have a say on that, because they will argue (justifiably) that surface and underwater drones are a whole other thing altogether. They are. 

Meanwhile, artillery and air force remain the most productive means of fire delivery. 

And same applies to tanks. 

If True, This Is A Decomposition ...

... of the force. I want to introduce a caveat immediately--there are occasions when officer mess hall eats differently from the rest of the crew. Special occasions, such as officers' birthdays, visits by important guests--the galley may cook a special meal--and something special officers bring onboard bought with their own money. The rest of the time--officers eat same food as their subordinates. Here is what Larry reports: 

During a conversation with the Marine’s mother, I mentioned the emails I had received from the sailor’s mom. The Marine mother, who does not know the lady who had sent me the emails, told me her son had the same experience, i.e., lousy chow and big weight loss. Pete Hegseth is calling these parents liars.

According to Ms. Mayes-Osterman: Both the Navy and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth denied reports of food problems. “My team confirmed the logistics stats for the Lincoln & Tripoli,” Hegseth said in a post on X. “Both have 30+ days of Class I supplies (food) on board. NavCent monitors this everyday, for every ship. Our sailors deserve — and receive — the best.” 

The only liar is Hegseth. He reportedly visited one of the ships and had a splendid meal in the Officer’s Mess. He did not eat in the dining facility for the enlisted personnel. That is a failure of leadership. My dogs eat better than these sailors and Marines. This is not just a problem on the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer. Similar complaints came from sailors posted to the USS Abraham Lincoln. The officers on board these ships have a duty and obligation to ensure their troops are properly fed. In theory, officers are supposed to eat last. But that is not the reality on board the ships conducting war missions off the coast of Iran.

Evidently Pete Hegseth thinks that his tour in Afghanistan and career of media personality make him a very special guest who can bypass galley realities of the ships on station and accept his great meal as a confirmation of everything being rosy with feeding the personnel. Of course, any deployment does have an effect on the weight, but if it is the "big weight loss"--this is more than just bad food or effects of protracted deployment, this means NOT ENOUGH food. 

Evidently the problem with feeding the personnel on these deployed ships persists. 

Well, deodorant should be the least of the concerns there. Food, water for showers and laundry, and functioning toilets should be. That's fundamental for deployment and the morale. What we observe, however, is a sheer incompetence on part of Trump Administration (no surprise here) and US military. This is a third world. This is also inadmissible. It has two layers to it, the first one, of course, is that the US shouldn't be there in the first place, the second--who allows these conditions to persist? As Stalin used to say--each problem always has a name.