Patrushev Is Not "Hinting" ...

 ... he says it directly. 

«Однозначно речь идет о диверсионном акте, выполненном на весьма профессиональном уровне. Уничтожение участка подводного трубопровода — сама по себе достаточно сложная задача, особенно если требуется максимально незаметная работа без привлечения специально оборудованного судна. В случае ''Северных потоков'', очевидно, эту задачу решала высококлассная команда диверсантов, обладающих большим опытом работы на значительных глубинах и в непростых гидрологических условиях Балтийского моря»,— убежден он. По словам Николая Патрушева, «далеко не каждая армия или спецслужба в мире имеет в своем составе пловцов, способных грамотно и, самое главное, скрытно реализовать подобную акцию». «Одна из спецслужб, способная выполнить эту задачу,— знаменитая британская Специальная лодочная служба. Это одно из старейших военно-морских диверсионных подразделений, которое заявило о себе во время Второй мировой войны,— отмечает Николай Патрушев.— Кстати, сейчас предпочитают не вспоминать, что буквально накануне подрыва «Северного потока» в этом районе Балтики проводились учения ВМС НАТО».

Translation: "We are clearly talking about an act of sabotage carried out at a very professional level. Destroying a section of an underwater pipeline is a difficult task in itself, especially if it requires the most undetectable work without the use of a specially equipped vessel. In the case of Nord Stream, this task was obviously carried out by a highly qualified team of saboteurs with extensive experience of working at significant depths and in the difficult hydrological conditions of the Baltic Sea," he is convinced. According to Nikolai Patrushev, "not every army or special service in the world has swimmers in its ranks who are capable of competently and, most importantly, covertly carrying out such an action." "One of the special services capable of carrying out this task is the famous British Special Boat Service. This is one of the oldest naval sabotage units, which made a name for itself during the Second World War, notes Nikolai Patrushev. By the way, now they prefer not to remember that literally on the eve of the explosion of the Nord Stream, NATO naval exercises were conducted in this area of ​​the Baltic.”

He correctly states that German "version" of sabotage is "ridiculous", which it is, but then again--anything coming out of West's establishment media is ridiculous by default and is nothing more than propaganda. Such as this piece of dung from WSJ:

It is one of the daily reminders that US establishment has NO serious experts in Russia, warfare and economics. You cannot fix it--the system itself is utterly corrupted and non-functional. Per dynamics of SMO--yet another "volunteer" has been kidnapped from the streets of 404 and now will be disposed of at the line of combat contact.

In related news which are not news but repetition of the same shit over and over again:

President Donald Trump said he was ready to sanction Russia after Moscow launched its largest air attack against Ukraine since the start of the war on Sunday, setting Kyiv’s government headquarters on fire and killing at least five, including one infant. Forty-four more were injured in the attack that the Ukrainian Defense Department said included over 800 Shahed-type strike drones; 9 Iskander-K cruise missiles; and 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which hit residential apartments and set ablaze the building where the Cabinet of Ministers convenes.

The destruction (rather minor, all things considered) and fire have been caused highly likely by SAM of whatever is left in terms of Patriots or whatever else in Kiev--the only place which has some pathetic remnants of missile AD in 404. 

Yes, as you might expect--infants are a normal presence in Council of Ministers building everywhere. So, sanctions, yes--Russia is quaking in her boots. But Kiev does look somewhat ... smoky today. 

The SMO continues. 

LOL)) Yes, LOL!

 Freakshow continues)))

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Thursday that he’s naming Secretary of State Marco Rubio as acting national security adviser to replace Mike Waltz, whom he is nominating for United Nations ambassador. Trump announced the moves shortly after news broke that Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong were departing the administration just weeks after it was revealed that Waltz added a journalist to a Signal chat being used to discuss military plans.

Nebenzya will make a complete idiot out of this guy in UN publicly. DJT, of course, couldn't foresee that the neocon trash he imported into his admin will sabotage him/s. And while everyone discusses the "mineral deal" which has no meaning for reality on the ground, Nikolai Patrushev makes an important comment on upcoming BaltOps 25:

НАТО на учениях вблизи российских границ отрабатывает сценарии с захватом Калининградской области и превентивными ударами по ядерным арсеналам. Об этом в интервью ТАСС заявил помощник президента РФ, глава Морской коллегии Николай Патрушев. По его словам, Североатлантический альянс второй год проводит самые масштабные за последние десятилетия учения, «на которых отрабатывает сценарии наступательных действий на большой протяженности — от Вильнюса до Одессы, захвата Калининградской области, блокирования судоходства на Балтике и в Черном море, превентивных ударов по местам постоянного базирования российских сил ядерного сдерживания».

Translation: NATO is practicing scenarios involving the seizure of the Kaliningrad region and preemptive strikes on nuclear arsenals during exercises near the Russian border. This was stated in an interview with TASS by the Russian presidential aide and head of the Naval Collegium Nikolai Patrushev. According to him, the North Atlantic Alliance is holding the largest exercises in recent decades for the second year, "in which it is practicing scenarios of offensive actions over a large area - from Vilnius to Odessa, the seizure of the Kaliningrad region, blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preemptive strikes on the permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces."

While I am on record for decades now that it is conventional power which matters in military affairs--the competition NATO has lost--yesterday Ania asked me a pointed question: how many nukes it will take to "calm" NATO down. It goes without saying that Russia can sink every NATO fleet in Baltic conventionally, but it must be understood--any real move on Kaliningrad means immediate nuclear response, including at NATO's military political top. Conventionally, NATO (US included) is a paper tiger, but considering a complete insanity of European political "elites", turning some of the European and UK sites into parking lot could become necessary. We, of course, can discuss after that the algorithm of escalation (or de-escalation) after initial "lesson", but Russia can go with her own version of the Ledeen Doctrine: “Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.” Rephrase it in accordance with present situation from Russian point of view and the list of candidates pops up immediately. I'll give you a hint--the US will do nothing.

Leopold the Cat was appealing to his adversary mice non-stop. Guys, let's live like friends. But in the end, he had to take Ozverin pills to calm things down.

While Inevitable Unfolds...

... for 404 and NATO, Nikolai Patrushev visits Borei A-class boomer Emperor Alexander the Third. She is for now at the North, but it is a Pacific Fleet SSBN. 

Next in line, this time for Northern Fleet, is Prince Pozharsky, which should be commissioned this year. 

I want to stress, Russia's strategic missile submarines production is impressive, to put it mildly and is increasing the gap with the US not just in state-of-the-art platforms but with latest versions of Bulava SLBMs capable of delivering of hypersonic gliding blocks. This is a generational loss, against the background of the delays of both Sentinel ICBM and Columbia-class SSBN. Hence the leak from uber "classified" (LOL) nuclear weapons guidance form the White House. 

Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat. In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea.

It is a classic approach to "do something", which is nothing but PR and simulation of meaningful activity, when initial conditions are clear and no matter what one does they cannot change anymore. Here is GAO giving some heads up:

All six offensive hypersonic weapon efforts GAO identified have placed a high priority on delivering quickly, with all intending to deliver a “minimum viable product”—one with the initial capabilities needed for users to recognize value. Four of the efforts, however, are not soliciting user feedback to determine what capabilities to include in their minimum viable product, a leading practice for product development identified by GAO in July 2023. In addition, four efforts have not adopted leading practices for using digital engineering tools, another leading practice for product development. These tools include virtual representations of physical products. Employing modern digital engineering tools and directly soliciting user feedback both have the potential to speed up the design process, reduce costs, and develop a more usable product. While DOD has identified and analyzed cost risks, the cost of these weapons is difficult to estimate. This is in part due to DOD's limited experience developing and fielding hypersonic weapons. For example, the Navy's estimate for Conventional Prompt Strike—among the most mature cost estimates available—compensates for the lack of quality historical data by relying heavily on the views of subject matter experts. Expert views are best used sparingly, as they can be prone to bias, unless estimators analyze and account for that bias. Addressing this and other issues in accordance with GAO leading practices for cost estimates could provide Navy decision-makers a more accurate estimate.

As I already stated--you cannot buy technical expertise based on technological and engineering culture which is utterly alien to the United States and its weaponry. Absolutely the same goes for operational and strategic experiences of Russia, which are also beyond reach now. It is all about "limited experiences". If that hasn't been enough, the shit accumulates on ISS:

Notably, NASA's Commercial Crew Program Manager Steve Stich obliquely referenced this during his most recent press availability on July 25. Stich was asked whether NASA would certify Starliner for operational missions if the vehicle returned to Earth autonomously but ultimately safely. "There are a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner," he said. "Starliner was designed as a spacecraft to have the crew in the cockpit. The crew is integral to the spacecraft."

Port concerns

The International Space Station has two docking ports for crew vehicles, and these must accommodate both Crew Dragon and Starliner. At present, one of these ports is occupied by the Crew-8 spacecraft, which is due to return to Earth fairly soon. The other port is occupied by Starliner. One source at Johnson Space Center said the concern is that NASA cannot afford to "brick" one of its two crew docking ports. For this reason, if NASA decides to return Starliner autonomously, it must be certain the undocking software update will work.

This is becoming ridiculous. Wait until they will tell us (it is already known) that undocking may create problems and the damn thing can damage the port, in the best case scenario, in the worst... well, let's not go there. 

Meanwhile, somebody begins to suspect something. 

It is called Operational Art, that even a setback could be turned into operational-strategic success.

Patrushev Out--Shoigu In.

Belousov will become Defense Minister, Shoigu becomes the Secretary of Security Council instead of Patrushev. Shoigu, however, moves to his new position retaining much (and getting even more) of responsibilities he had as Defense Minister--as the head of the Commission on Military-Industrial Complex, plus he will be in charge of weapons' trade (in Russian). Here are some details:

According to Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin opted to assign a “civilian” to lead the Defense Ministry, citing the necessity for the agency to embrace innovation and progressive concepts. Peskov further mentioned that Shoigu, in his capacity as secretary of the Security Council, will serve as the president’s deputy within the commission on the military-industrial complex. The Kremlin’s spokesman added that Valery Gerasimov, the head of the General Staff of the Defense Ministry, will remain in his current role. Peskov noted that it will be revealed in the coming days who Nikolai Patrushev’s successor will be after his departure from the position of Security Council secretary.

Belousov is an "executioner" who will mop up whatever is left in Defense Ministry in terms of its apparatus corruption and streamlining many of the decisions in terms of everyday operations. This also has to do, methinks, with Timur Ivanov's and his network of economic criminals (and possibly foreign intel assets) who used SMO for their own interests. Nothing will change in terms of General Staff, that is people who run SMO. 

Meanwhile, this is how "military targets" look like for NATO--civilian apartment blocks--in Belgorod.

This is the only thing they know how to do in war--attack civilians. One of the issues which makes them so butthurt--Russian Forces are extremely cautious in terms of civilians in 404, hence an incredibly low count of civilian casualties in 404. Certainly, nothing even close to genocide by fake Israeli Army which is good only at "offensives" against women and children. I am sure they will teach Israeli "combat experience" at West Point as a way to "fight" the war.

When Mr. Patrushev...

 ... says something, it means he has huge reasons to do so, unlike it is the case with spokespersons circus in the West who simply lie to your face.  Same goes for Mr. Bortnikov--the Director of FSB. 

МОСКВА, 26 мар — РИА Новости. Показания задержанных по делу о теракте в "Крокус Сити Холле" подтверждают украинский след, заявил директор ФСБ Александр Бортников журналисту Павлу Зарубину, который выложил видео в Telegram-канале."Первичные данные, которые мы получили от задержанных, подтверждают это. Поэтому будем дальше дорабатывать информацию, которая должна нам показать — реально присутствие и участие украинской стороны или нет. Во всяком случае, пока есть основания говорить, что это именно так", — сказал руководитель спецслужбы.

Translation: MOSCOW, March 26 – RIA Novosti. The testimony of those detained in the case of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall confirms the Ukrainian trace, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov told journalist Pavel Zarubin, who posted the video on the Telegram channel. “The primary data that we received from the detainees confirms this. Therefore, we will further refine it information that should show us whether the presence and participation of the Ukrainian side is real or not. In any case, for now there is reason to say that this is exactly the case,” said the head of the special service.

 

Bortnikov also pointed out the obvious "interest" of Western special services in Crocus-City atrocity. So, as you can see--404 and Budanov are already being dealt with, now it is the matter of establishing the main "customer". This may take some time but we already know the circle of suspects and they are not in 404. As I pointed out not for once, at this stage neither Russia as a state nor Russians as people give a flying fuck about what West thinks or says, only what it does. Russia reacts appropriately. As Mr. Medvedev said (in Russian)--it would be good for France to send a couple of regiments to Russia to be annihilated. This is your answer in regards to the "direct conflict" with NATO. Russia will kill anyone who enters 404. It is one thing when Petr Tolstoy says it, however important MP he is, totally another when the deputy chair of Russia's Security Council says so. Medvedev is NOT a "bad cop" in tandem with "good cop" Putin--he is a genuine hawk who hates the West viscerally. He has some reasons for that. So, for NATO it is the time to exhale and praise the Lord that Vladimir Putin won these elections. Medvedev may yet run in the future and, believe me, he will win. Meanwhile, for French troops, if they ever make it--Welcome to Hell.

Scott's Excellent Talk...

 ... at Judge's. 

Plus, for those who continue to doubt numbers. Here is today's RT headline:

The number of Ukrainian servicemen killed since the counteroffensive began has now surpassed 83,000, Russian Defense Ministry data shows 

I reiterate, we still do NOT know the number of KIAs in the rear of 404. This number is huge due to relentless Russia's salvos of stand-off weapons at locations, assembly areas of VSU and 404's military-industrial infrastructure. We are easily looking at least at half-a-million KIAs for VSU... so far. More is coming. Shoigu's estimate of SMO continuing through 2025 is a good estimate, once one considers that 404 is NOT even the main target, NATO is. Or, broadly speaking, as follows from Patrushev's program article--Pax Americana, a euphemism for "rules-based order". It is unsustainable, especially when sheer incompetence of Western "elites" and military-industrial weakness have been exposed dramatically.

In Order For Me...

... to not repeat myself while elaborating on Putin's and Patrushev's interviews, I decided to give a very short, radically insufficient, overview: 

Their desperation is palpable.

Russia’s crude oil exports by sea have held above the 3 million barrels per day (bpd) mark in the past six weeks, after the EU ban on fuel imports from Russia took effect and after Moscow said it would lower its production by 500,000 bpd, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. In the most recent week to March 24, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports fell by 123,000 bpd but were still above 3 million bpd, at 3.11 million bpd, per the data cited by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. While weekly shipments can be very volatile, tanker tracking in the six-week period to March 24 also showed a similar small decline in Russian shipments. This suggests that Russian crude oil exports have held resilient this year, and the voluntary production cut hasn’t shown yet in Russia’s crude exports to the global market. Most Russian exports are headed to China, India, or “unknown destinations” in Asia, which, history shows, usually means that the cargoes end up in one of the two biggest Asian importers of crude.

But Tolstoy left us with those insights which are true and universally applicable: 

Yes, it was like a dream in which a man fancies that a ruffian is coming to attack him, and raises his arm to strike that ruffian a terrible blow which he knows should annihilate him, but then feels that his arm drops powerless and limp like a rag, and the horror of unavoidable destruction seizes him in his helplessness. 

Don't expect the crowd inside the beltway ever reading this novel, let alone understanding and learning from it. 

Patrushev Framed The Narrative...

 ... and Peskov started to follow it. 

The US and NATO are already taking part in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although indirectly, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Tuesday. He was commenting on a statement made earlier by the secretary of Russia’s national security council, Nikolay Patrushev, who called the ongoing hostilities a "confrontation of NATO… with Russia." "Both NATO and the US are definitely taking part in this conflict, although indirectly, by proxy," Peskov said, adding that, although both Washington and Brussels maintain they have no intention of getting involved in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, "de facto they have already become an indirect party" to it. The US and its allies, including the NATO nations, "pump Ukraine full of arms, [share] technologies, and intelligence data… Their involvement in this conflict is obvious," the spokesman for Russian president Vladimir Putin said.

Meanwhile Colonel MacGregor and Judge discuss today the whole thing. 

Pay attention to MacGregor's views on NATO tanks, especially M1;))

Pardon My French...

But no shit! Didn't I warn about it more than seven years ago? So, now the US side admits it.

The world is reshaping into a tri-polar configuration, with the US, Russia and China being the "great powers," a top American general has said. He then explained why he thinks the US must "put a premium" on keeping its influence. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, admitted that the years of US domination may be over.

We're entering into a tri-polar world with the US, Russia and China being all great powers. Just by introducing three vs two you get increased complexity.

Milley believes that maintaining the peace between the "great powers" in a tri-polar configuration will be significantly more difficult than in Cold War times, when two powers were at odds. Rapidly developing technologies also add up to the complexity, according to the general, with the world becoming "potentially much more strategically unstable than, say, the last 40, 50 or 60 years."

I am not going to lie--for the last decade or so I don't take any geopolitical and military assessments coming from the United States' establishment, even less so from the European one, seriously. And here is the issue, the use of tenses is wrong; this one because we are not "entering into a tri-polar world" we are ALREADY in it. But hey, as they say, better late than never. There is no military solution for the West's crisis because West will cease to exists as such in case it tries. Yet, some signs are hopeful. 

We don't know what CIA Director Burns and Nikolai Patrushev really talked about, but I can bet my ass on that "hackers" issue was not the most important item on their agenda. 

CIA Director William Burns met with a top Russian security official on Tuesday, a spokesperson from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow confirmed. At President Biden's request, Burns was leading a delegation of senior American officials on a two-day trip to Moscow."They are meeting with members of the Russian government to discuss a range of issues in the bilateral relationship," the spokesperson said.  The interaction comes amid simmering tensions with the Kremlin, although at the same time, the Biden administration is trying to foster a more stable and predictable relationship after issuing a raft of sanctions for past offenses in April.  

What did they talk about? I will go out on a limb here and will say that at the center was a discussion of the American "proposition" on how to "divide" the world into the spheres of interest without unleashing a major war. Russian media were extremely sterile when reporting on this visit--couple of general words and that's about it. The acceptance of the fact that Pax Americana is no more is a good start but that is not enough. By far the most important issue here is recognition by the United States of its own real scale and power. This seems to be a good start.

The Biden administration is reportedly considering a revision to US nuclear doctrine, with national security officials said to be debating whether to declare that the “sole purpose” of its atomic stockpile is deterrence.The National Security Council is holding a series of inter-agency meetings this month regarding changes to the US’ “nuclear posture,” according to the Washington Post. Unnamed officials told the paper a new nuclear policy would be announced in early 2022.President Joe Biden is said to be in favor of the revision, which would narrow the circumstances in which the US would use nuclear weapons. If ratified, they would be used only to deter a direct attack or retaliate after a strike. During his campaign for the presidency in 2020, Biden expressed his support for a ‘sole purpose’ declaration and pledged to put it into practice.

But that is not enough, If this happens--great, but the combined West is in a full scale "warm" war against Russia and until the issue of Country 404 is resolved a lot remains to be talked about, because Russia DOES NOT want to feed this shithole. 404, however, is desperate to start some shit in a desperate attempt (on advice from its US and European curators) to get Russia involved, not understanding that such an involvement will mean a catastrophic end to 404's statehood and utter demolition of its military, security and political institutions. I am 100% positive that Patrushev explained to Burns how this may end badly. I am pretty sure that was one of the main issues discussed in Moscow and Burns was, most likely, put on notice that once 404 decides to "go big", Russia wouldn't care how many American (NATO) military and "intelligence"instructors, who infest 404, will die in the first 30 minutes of Russia's response. 

CIA played and continues to play a crucial role in destabilization of 404 but Russians are not exactly Taliban, which still handed a humiliating military and political defeat to the United States, and they have the exact targeting for most places where NATO people are concentrated. So, once 3M14s and X-101s get airborne those people will have around 20-30 minutes to get out of the way, if those will be Iskanders and Kinzhals--they will have no time. Make your own conclusions, Iran, at least, gave ample warning. 

 

In related news, Vladimir Putin basically confirmed what we all already know that Zircon begins serial procurement starting in 2022 (in Russian), he also pointed out that he is satisfied with both Kinzhal and Peresvet confirming their "unique" characteristics. He also stressed (yet again) the importance of AI and speaking about GOZ-2033 (State Defense Order) he mentioned some new weapons, without specifying them, so, I guess, more robots, faster hyper-sonic weapons, increased speed of decision making and who knows what else, I am sure some S-600 or 700 is already in works. I am also sure the so called 6th generation aircraft will appear down the road there too. All that to provide Russia with state-of-the-art defense capability which also will ensure that the planet remains relatively peaceful any cataclysms in the combined West notwithstanding. 

Russia Is Game.

Nikolai Patrushev already expressed himself (that means Russia's leadership position) on this AUKUS thing.  RT reports:

A new geopolitical deal that will see the US and UK team up with Australia to station nuclear submarines deep down in the Pacific Ocean is a hostile step aimed not only at Beijing, but at Moscow too, a top Russian official claims. Nikolay Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, told the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper on Tuesday that the pact between the three nations, known as AUKUS, will inevitably be yet another military bloc aimed at containing and confronting the two strongest non-Western powers.According to the interview, Patrushev compared the pact to QUAD, a strategic dialogue format between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, designed to strengthen Washington's position across Asia. According to him, the group is “a military-political bloc with a pronounced pro-American character.”“Just the other day, another military bloc was formed in the region – the American-British-Australian AUKUS, which pursues the same goals,” the top official went on. According to him, the new deal, which will see London and Washington hand over the technical know-how for Canberra to develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, is a threat to “the entire security architecture in Asia.”

Of course, it is a threat and Russia, being Asian power, I am sure, will aid China in this matter but for now we can only speculate what will Russia do specifically. As I stated before, the immediate focus is on pr. 971 Schuka (NATO Akula-class) SSNs, many of which are being upgraded to SSGNs. China has cash, a lot of it, Russia has technology and it is totally conceivable to see China seeking Russia's assistance in developing advanced SSNs. What forms will it take? We will see soon enough. I will address some tactical and operational issues re: Indian Ocean SLOCs later--here, China, indeed, faces odds stacked against her, since the US Navy can support, at least initially, guerre de course of submarines, including through deployment of CBGs, which will preclude effective actions of China's ASW/Patrol aviation. Base in Pakistan (Gwadar) thus could get a serious boost in turning it into a full blown Chinese naval base and that will help address a serious vulnerability of Indian Ocean SLOCs which for China have an existential importance. 

Meanwhile, refresh your memory with this piece from more than 3 year ago:

Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant-II, Or China The Omnipotent. 

The issue is NOT new. 

Pretty Clear And Without Double Meaning.

Verbatim:

«В контексте прозвучавших со стороны наших партнеров оценок в отношении крупной региональной державы, которой является Иран, хотел бы отметить следующее: Иран был и остается нашим союзником и партнером, с которым мы последовательно развиваем отношения как в двустороннем плане, так и в многосторонних форматах. В этой связи любые попытки представить Тегеран в качестве главной угрозы региональной безопасности и тем более поставить его в один ряд с ИГИЛ* или другими террористическими группировками для нас неприемлемы».

Translation: In the context of assessments from our partners in relation to an important regional state, such as Iran, I would like to point out next: Iran was and remains our ally and partner, with which we steadily develop our relations in bi- and multilateral formats. In this case, any attempts to present Tehran as a main threat to regional stability and equate it with ISIS and other terrorist groups are unacceptable. 

This is Russia's Security Council Secretary (in realty, second most influential man in Russia after Putin) Nikolai Patrushev's statement today in Jerusalem at the meeting with Netanyahu and Bolton.  Recall what I wrote more than two years ago:

If to discount a highly improbable, yet still possible, version that this whole situation is a political theater to cover up something more substantial and logical happening behind the stage, a very serious military alliance between Russia and Iran may begin to emerge very soon. At this stage, it seems to be a very logical and sensible step. Russia and Iran (through Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea) are tightly connected both by geography and now by common security objectives. Russia will not allow any kind of hostilities, much less regime change in her Caspian underbelly. Iran knows it and she has to make her moves in economic field to accommodate Russia's efforts. Iran may start with buying Sukhoi Super Jets 100s and signing the contract for deliveries of MC-21 passenger jets after their trials are over by 2019. This will be a very good step, while Russia makes sure that Iran's armed forces are properly armed. 

I guess, Patrushev was more than explicit today in Israel. It is yet another "win" for Trump's Administration and those "wins" and "victories" continue to pile up. It seems that Iran's path to SCO is pretty much predetermined now. Iran already had experience of hosting Russia's VKS and it is well-known fact--where Russian "little green men" or "little green S-400s" or "little green SU-35s" appear, wars tend to wind down or not start at all. Interesting to hear what Iranians are thinking about it. I guess, Putin will have some things to tell DJT at Osaka this week, and no, I don't mean assurances that Russia did not interfere with Israe... pardon me, US elections.  Boy, these events are picking up the pace. Amazing.    

Bolton Speaks.

OK, John Bolton gave Russia, namely her National Security Council head, Nikolai Patrushev, the last Chinese warning against meddling in US elections--we now know that Russia already has evil plans to "meddle" in these elections by means of investing another 97 cents or, maybe whole 97 dollars, in trying to subvert American democracy and promote communism. We know that because US media, known for their integrity and honesty, talk about this all the time. So Bolton was very stern while warning evil Russkies against that.   

Then Bolton added that:

Patrushev had not sought Russian waivers on sanctions during their talks, he added.  

I can hear a surprising, and desperate in some quarters, "Wha-a-a-a-t?" from most (not all) American Russia "scholars" and "journalists" who still reside in their make-believe universe and are still waiting for Russia to crawl back to their feet begging for mercy. Yes, any minute now. But jokes aside, Bolton was not meeting Patrushev for this BS. Bolton might be an aggressive neocon of sorts but he is not completely stupid and is at least aware of the real score. Here what is at stake:

Bolton, a critic of the New START treaty agreed during Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration, said the two sides did not set a date for deciding what to do about the treaty due to expire in 2021.“We are very very early in the process of considering what we are going to do with New START or the INF treaty,” he said, referring to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces pact. 

That is warmer, much warmer. The United States wants to discuss START only, what a surprise, on American conditions. US thinks it can negotiate from this position, but, of course it cannot since it is not in such position anymore. Not for quite some time. These conditions could be expressed (it is not mine) in this simple phrase: You, Russia, reduce weapons which you have in exchange for us, America, reducing weapons which we don't have. This is not going to fly, obviously. So, because the United States realistically cannot close the gap in, at least openly disclosed, weaponry any time soon, it will try the last, it thinks trump (sorry), card it has--economic warfare on a big scale. That, plus deploying whatever it has all around Russia waiting for the next Gorby or drunkard like Boris emerge from the deep recesses of Russia's political cellar. Russians do not really give a damn as long as somebody doesn't do a really stupid thing and tries going "hot". After watching performance by Mr. Mudd and, considering his very high post in national security hierarchy, I have to allow for a non-zero probability of some spoiled brats on the top pushing, out of noble indignation with those nasty evil Russkies, for a military solution. 

So, what's left? Well, Patrushev is an immensely powerful figure in Russia and is more than authorized to explain to Bolton how real situation looks like. Of course, as always there will be a lot of PR on the US side and Russia will continue to seek compromises when necessary but, I am sure, Bolton was presented with the case in this first meeting that either it is quid-pro-quo or nothing at all. Choice is America's. I think the bargaining started but it is not about Grand Deal--time for that is long gone. How to call this process? Feel free to try your imagination. 

UPDATE: Ah, speak of the devil, or as Russians say--the grand piano in the bushes (Royal' V Kustakh). I don't hold Leonid Bershidsky in any serious regard in terms of serious global and economic policies--one can not expect any competence from liberal Russian bankster and journo by (Western) education, but even he has to admit:

As the U.S. begins to consider an all-out economic war, the two strategic questions it needs to answer are: what it is willing to pay to extract any concessions from the Putin government at all, and how long it is prepared to wait. Macroeconomically, Russia, with unemployment at a record low, modest inflation and $400 billion of international reserves, is unlikely to collapse before the U.S. unleashes a global energy or debt crisis that could prompt its allies to desert it. If less than maximum pain is applied, Russia could manage for years with relatively low growth. That is the basis for Putin’s calculations. It bodes badly for the current direction of U.S. policy. If Washington inflicts as much pain as it can — and nothing changes — it will be a painful failure for the superpower.

The point I am trying to make for years now is not just that US and its political and so called "intellectual" classes are absolutely unaware of real Russia--that is not really the news--US Russian "studies" field is pathetic. The point is that they are unaware about American real standing, military and economic, globally. That's the problem. The problem also with the Western geopolitical calculus--it simply doesn't work. As per "macroeconomic"--each time when I hear (read) this economic psychobabble, I cringe.