US "Intelligence" Community ...

 ... distinguished itself primarily with creation of fairy tales (aka narratives) and utter military incompetency. 

Russia plans to inflict maximum damage on Kyiv's energy sector by August 24 without waiting for autumn, Ukrainian media reported, citing the US intelligence community. It is reported that the Russian Army can even use a strategic reserve of ballistic missiles for strikes in order to achieve the maximum effect by the celebration of Independence Day.

This is a hallmark of the US military "intel" which is built around US military psyche like trying to tie some operations by Russian military to some "significant" date--a post traumatic addiction to Soviet dissidents' BS about Red Army doing things (like liberation of Kiev in 1943). This all is a result of historic and operational-strategic illiteracy, like applying fairy tales from WW II to modern warfare. 

Secondly, most of them will not understand a) what strategic reserves are, b) that Russia produces the number of long-range (stand-off) weapons of ALL kinds, INCLUDING quasi-ballistic Iskanders, in volumes which are order (now orders) of magnitude larger than what the US can produce, c) that in terms of latest iterations of UAVs of a long-range class such as Geraniums and Banderols (this is in effect a light cruise missile) reaching one thousand daily (like in 24 hours)--these numbers are beyond their grasp. I mean it literally--no US military and intel professional ever dealt with such production and casualties numbers ever, insofar as the last half-a-century goes. 

In fact, Russia's real military and intel professionals when making operational and strategic level assessments of the US war-making and war-fighting capability smile ironically. 

In the end, it was Pentagon and collection of its chihuahuas from UK, Germany, France et al who managed to kill almost 3 million of 404 males and resorted, naturally, to terrorism and war crimes. We are observing a train wreck in progress. 

Meanwhile, Russian Army liberated Western part of Malaya Tockmachka. 

The storm of Orekhov has commenced. 

You can see yourself where it is all going. 

In related news, they are correct ...

Nobody will be able to do anything about it. Nobody will even try. 

Civilian Warehouses In 404 ...

... have this funny propensity--each time they are hit, they begin to detonate. What a mystery!

I am wrecking my brain here trying to figure out why West-supplied baby food, diapers, toys are so violently explosive. Obviously a low quality product, right? I would be also very cautious around toilet paper from Germany or France--keep an eye (if you can--you are a superman) on your ass. In both senses, it may explode and not from the toilet paper only, if you know what I mean. 

A Bit Too Loud ...

 ... for regular cluster munitions. 

Unless the sound from them coincided with another much larger explosion. Doesn't matter, really. Kiev has no air defense anymore. Neither does NATO which has been thoroughly demilitarized 

Kiev Continues To Have ...

 ... boogie nights. Today is yet another one, very loud, many 3M22 Zircons, 3M14 Kalibrs, Iskanders et al. One of the, likely the storage of baby food (wink, wink), targets with purely civilian products detonates wonderfully in Kiev's suburb. 

A lot of noise and explosions. Trump called Putin yesterday and, likely, will call Putin after he meets green cocaine-addict in Istanbul at NATO summit in an attempt to bullshit unbullshitable yet again, but keep in mind--Russians are not interested to host Witkoff and Kushner again--tentatively they may get to Moscow in August, maybe--because there is nothing to talk about. I stress, again, for those who continue to get their news from media headlines--most of what you hear and read has no relation to reality, especially if you use Western media or the so called Russian voenwhores. 

Once the hype of 250th wears off and the spectacle of World Cup comes to an end, Trump Admin will be left with the consequences of everything what had happened in Gaza, SMO and Iran and they don't go anywhere and are here to stay. 

Kiev Had ...

 ... well, this will continue and it is all about blowing out the remainder of industrial, storage and C2 facilities. Mind you this is not just Kiev, whole of 404 is burning. 

Against the background of a catastrophe around Zaporozhie (that's the whole other can of worms), those morons in Wiesbaden group will try to repeat something akin to Krinki. Sure, the result (as my sources tell me) will make slaughterhouse at Krinki a stroll in the park in comparison for VSU. They desperately try to drag Belarus into it somehow, but no worries--Lukashenko is escaping travelling abroad and do not forget, he tacitly supported 404. Yet another attack on Belorussian bus today by Luka's "friends" in Kiev, official Minsk will take its sweet time to issue condemnation, or maybe not issue at all. 

Oh, It Is Too Late ...

 ... too late to mass riot in Kiev against TTzK. You should have been doing this in 2022 and maybe first-half of 2023. Now, your fate is to go and die for Nazis and NATO cowards. 

You cannot change anything now. The fate takes over. 

Arrival of 3M22 ...

 ... Zircons (four of them) into Goloseevskii district of Kiev this night. 

As you can see yourself NATO air defense is very effective (wink, wink) in intercepting these backward and highly inexpensive weapons. Nah, I am screwing with you))

This Is Systemic ...

 ... that means it will continue. Again, it is not just Kiev. Here is Kharkov having a jolly night. 

But Kiev is altogether--something else. 

Salvos of Iskanders, then 3M22 Zircons arrive, then Geraniums. 

Gargle, rinse, spit--repeat. That's 404's reality now. 

I Agree ...

 ... this is exactly what I told RT yesterday. Medvedev merely underscored. 

So, some parts of today's Kiev look like this. This is just a warmup. 

So, if EU thinks that Russians give a damn about some German or French diplomats, I have a bridge to sell. They all will die if they will be within the blasts' ranges and to hell with them. Europe is Russia's existential enemy and in its present form it must die. It will. 

Kiev's Party.

The reality is grim for 404, really grim, and it will get even worse.

There are now rivers of liquid shit all over the place and we can now talk about red alert danger of infectious diseases once it warms up. 

This all, and I will continue to stress it, the result of criminal activity on part of the combined West and 404 is now being made the lesson for corrupt, degenerate and incompetent Euro chihuahuas. For Europe, if it ever decides (and will be able to, which is highly doubtful) to even look wrongly at Russia--these will come really fast together with physical removal of European military-political top. 

Now to this: 

The New START treaty, which limits the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, officially expires on February 5, and Moscow has not received any formal response from the US on renewing it, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a press release on Wednesday. Russia will be ready to decisively counter potential threats, but will remain open to dialogue after the lapse of the last remaining strategic arms control agreement with the US, it added.

A clarification: Russia ALREADY countered and will continue to widen already an enormous capability gap. Especially when one considers the fact that ALL Russia's hypersonic delivery systems, deployed, as well as ones that we are yet to learn about, all without exception are delivery systems for nukes. Importantly, they saw real combat use, devastating at that, with conventional ordnance. To demonstrate, allegedly NON-strategic SSGN of project 885 Yasen-class can and carries nuclear tipped hypersonic 3M22 Zircon and P-800 Onyx and 3M14M Kalibr (4,500 kilometer range) missiles. 

32 of them. Is this, one may ask, a strategic missile submarine then? In essence--yes. Even in non-nuclear load the salvo of this sub can have a strategic effect, when nuclear ordnance loaded--well, it can devastate all naval bases on both coasts of the United States and deal a catastrophic blow to industrial base. Same goes for NON-strategic Oreshnik, which, in reality, is a strategic weapon. 

So, what mountain should the US climb to even get even? The obstacle is insurmountable. 

Kiev Now ...

 ... full decommunization is in progress. 

It is not just Kiev. There are some strange events happening in Kharkov and other places. 

And then, of course, the electricity disappears. 

Kiev Continues To Enjoy ...

 ... the return to its roots as a capital of 404. By roots I mean a historic 404 from the17th century. 

Those Russian communist achievements such as electricity, central heating, universal plumbing, industries et al which Russia gave 404 should be completely rejected by proud 404-rners, Russia merely helps them on their way back to the original 404. 

For People Who Still ...

 ... don't get it. That's strategy. 1. Demilitarization of NATO while disposing of VSU. 2. Regime change and denazification and decommunization of what's left of 404. This is Kiev this night. 

More of Kiev's decommunization. 

And now big targets, famous Dneproges. Machine hall and distribution facilities hit--massive fires, the dam is closed for traffic.  

This is also a demonstration--lite--to NATO what it can expect in case of escalation, as a process, the end result could be several orders of magnitude worse. 

Patrushev Is Not "Hinting" ...

 ... he says it directly. 

«Однозначно речь идет о диверсионном акте, выполненном на весьма профессиональном уровне. Уничтожение участка подводного трубопровода — сама по себе достаточно сложная задача, особенно если требуется максимально незаметная работа без привлечения специально оборудованного судна. В случае ''Северных потоков'', очевидно, эту задачу решала высококлассная команда диверсантов, обладающих большим опытом работы на значительных глубинах и в непростых гидрологических условиях Балтийского моря»,— убежден он. По словам Николая Патрушева, «далеко не каждая армия или спецслужба в мире имеет в своем составе пловцов, способных грамотно и, самое главное, скрытно реализовать подобную акцию». «Одна из спецслужб, способная выполнить эту задачу,— знаменитая британская Специальная лодочная служба. Это одно из старейших военно-морских диверсионных подразделений, которое заявило о себе во время Второй мировой войны,— отмечает Николай Патрушев.— Кстати, сейчас предпочитают не вспоминать, что буквально накануне подрыва «Северного потока» в этом районе Балтики проводились учения ВМС НАТО».

Translation: "We are clearly talking about an act of sabotage carried out at a very professional level. Destroying a section of an underwater pipeline is a difficult task in itself, especially if it requires the most undetectable work without the use of a specially equipped vessel. In the case of Nord Stream, this task was obviously carried out by a highly qualified team of saboteurs with extensive experience of working at significant depths and in the difficult hydrological conditions of the Baltic Sea," he is convinced. According to Nikolai Patrushev, "not every army or special service in the world has swimmers in its ranks who are capable of competently and, most importantly, covertly carrying out such an action." "One of the special services capable of carrying out this task is the famous British Special Boat Service. This is one of the oldest naval sabotage units, which made a name for itself during the Second World War, notes Nikolai Patrushev. By the way, now they prefer not to remember that literally on the eve of the explosion of the Nord Stream, NATO naval exercises were conducted in this area of ​​the Baltic.”

He correctly states that German "version" of sabotage is "ridiculous", which it is, but then again--anything coming out of West's establishment media is ridiculous by default and is nothing more than propaganda. Such as this piece of dung from WSJ:

It is one of the daily reminders that US establishment has NO serious experts in Russia, warfare and economics. You cannot fix it--the system itself is utterly corrupted and non-functional. Per dynamics of SMO--yet another "volunteer" has been kidnapped from the streets of 404 and now will be disposed of at the line of combat contact.

In related news which are not news but repetition of the same shit over and over again:

President Donald Trump said he was ready to sanction Russia after Moscow launched its largest air attack against Ukraine since the start of the war on Sunday, setting Kyiv’s government headquarters on fire and killing at least five, including one infant. Forty-four more were injured in the attack that the Ukrainian Defense Department said included over 800 Shahed-type strike drones; 9 Iskander-K cruise missiles; and 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which hit residential apartments and set ablaze the building where the Cabinet of Ministers convenes.

The destruction (rather minor, all things considered) and fire have been caused highly likely by SAM of whatever is left in terms of Patriots or whatever else in Kiev--the only place which has some pathetic remnants of missile AD in 404. 

Yes, as you might expect--infants are a normal presence in Council of Ministers building everywhere. So, sanctions, yes--Russia is quaking in her boots. But Kiev does look somewhat ... smoky today. 

The SMO continues. 

He Is (Was) The Guy ...

 ... responsible for planning terrorist and sabotage operations in Russia. 

Two can play the game, you know. Kiev's panoramas meanwhile are getting more picturesque with each night. 

Targeting Is Pretty Good ...

 ... for Russia's stand-off weapons. As you can see, SEAD in action. And yes, this is not SEAD they teach in NATO's military academies. Truth is, definition of air superiority as it is taught to, as an example, USAF is utterly obsolete. 

In Related News ...

 ... water is wet, fire is hot and concrete is hard. 

Russia Has Won the Ukraine War and ‘Defeated’ NATO. Key Points - The war in Ukraine is effectively over, with Russia on a clear path to achieving its objectives through a grinding war of attrition that has exhausted Ukraine and outlasted Western and NATO resolve. Russia's military has adapted, its economy has been reoriented away from the West despite sanctions, and its political regime under Putin remains stable. In contrast, Ukraine faces a critical and irreversible manpower crisis that no amount of Western hardware can solve. 

To those who still didn't get the message--it was over in Summer 2023 when the much touted "counter-offensive" exposed utter military incompetence of NATO and was defeated without effectively NATO forces even reaching the first line of defense. After that, it was just the method of demilitarizing NATO by Russia. That's what happens when your military history and "operational art" is nothing but a collection of fairy tales written by losers defeated by the Red Army in WW II and a sense of military exceptionalism endemic in America's founding. General Patton and all kinds of other rah-rahs. Result? 

Russians gave a bit of a taste in the last 24 hours. Here is one of the Kiev's powerplants leaving the chat.

You can also witness the "effectiveness" of NATO's (there is no former Soviet-Russian AD left--it is all NATO) AD--it is impotent in any configuration and quantity to stop modern stand-off weapons. While to demonstrate to you why any NATO efforts to pretend that it can fight Russia in Eastern Europe is nothing but PR BS--here is a screenshot of one of the LCDs in Ka-52 helicopter hitting the armor from the range of 25.3 kilometers by LMUR. 

Meanwhile Michael Vlahos laments: 

The US Navy's five roads to ruin. The establishment wants you to believe it's all about the number of ships but the rot runs much deeper, which can lead to delusional strategy.   

What do you mean can, it already did. Anybody who thinks that the carrier-centric navy in the 21st century is anything but the collection of fat juicy indefensible targets must have his head checked. TOE of 1990s has no place in 2025. 

Classic Patriot PAC3 ...

... "operation", first burst with whatever it has in launchers at something, then arrival of Iskander or any other long-range fire, and then it is over. Another one bites the dust. This is Kiev just now. 

I want to remind you a simple formula. Quantity in itself is NOT a guarantee, but even for Pkill of a single hypersonic target of 0.2 (which NO US AD complex can guarantee) we have this picture.

NATO simply has no AD suited for the 21st century. Period. 

Yes, We Know ...

 ... it takes "5 hours for Russian tanks to be in Kiev", per Mr.Trump. Obviously, Donnie has a very peculiar relations with geography and with the movement of armor columns on march, but here is what's wrong with his "beautiful" assessment. For starters--here is a theoretical and shortest distance from Sumy to Kiev at which Russians theoretically can "march".

As you can see from the map "as crow flies" distance is around 300 kilometers, if to imagine that Russians attended DJT school of advanced military studies and want to cover this distance on tracks (and wheels) alone--doable, but kills motor resource of the hardware--the speed of the armor column of such nature could be, and that is a good result, on average about 25-30 kilometers per hour. So, if we take 300 kilometers and divide it by 30, we get around 10 hours. But that is theory. 

If DJT wants to have an idea (of course he doesn't, he knows it all) what does it mean to move motor rifle battalion on march, here is a good primer from ... Soviet Defense Ministry on how to plan (battalion is the first tactical unit which actually has own staff) and move in column. It is in Russian, but a lot of it is understood in terms of CO Decision, planning and shit like that. Simple stuff, no math is needed for DJT. 

This is BEFORE the battalion does anything with piu piu and other exciting shit. A model of moving a whole damn tank army when need be--is a 320 kilometer march (in one day this formation of 951 tanks and self-propelled guns managed to cover more than 100 km) of Pavel Rotmistrov's 5th Tank Army which engaged Hausser's panzer Corps literally on the go. Rotmistrov's army lost almost a third of its tanks during this march. Pay attention to this chapter of Hausser's life--a reason why the US Army has no idea about the war on the Eastern Front and strongly believes that it won WW II. 

Following the war, Hausser participated in the work of the U.S. Army Historical Division, where under the guidance of Franz Halder, German generals wrote World War II operational studies for the U.S. Army, first as POWs and then as employees. 

But I digress. So, you get the idea about what it would be to move an army size formation to Kiev. Granted Russians want to take the city of almost 3 million, which they don't--only American generals who listened to Wehrmacht and SS generals fairy tales would believe that Russians want Kiev. But I am on record--operational planning? Nah, they don't know what this is. 

Meanwhile, the warm up at the front is ongoing today--Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk axes. 

More from today;

You see, Russians made a slight and very pleasant mistake, they slightly OVERestimated the staying power of the VSU and broke through faster than anticipated. Hey, not bad. What you see on the maps is called putting the enemy on the split and this exhausting pattern will continue until the order is given. What this order will be, we just have to wait and see. Tomorrow Donnie will be trying to "scare" Putin, LOL)) Donnie, get real military professionals into your Cabinet, albeit it is too late now. 

Yes, And?

Those admissions are important, of course. Especially from The National Interest tabloid which gave the start to all kinds of pseudo-military BSers like Michael Peck, as an example. After the departure of Dmitry Simes as its publisher, the whole rag went US exceptionalist until events overtook narratives. Now they admit:

America has all but thrown in the towel in the great race to achieve hypersonic weapons capability. Not only is China ahead of the United States in this domain, but the Russian Federation is apparently lightyears ahead of both. One such Russian system that is redefining the face of modern warfare is the 3M22 Zircon. This impressive system has now been married to the Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, giving the Russians an even more impressive—and lethal—capability.

For some reason they put rendering of Kinzhal above the piece, but in general conclusion is correct, despite the fact that 3M22 Zircon's speed is rumored to be more than M=9 and new generation of such weapons will fly even faster and further than already astonishing range of 1,500 kilometers.

The Zircon has already upset the precarious balance of military power between the United States and Russia. The growth of this system, while the Americans find it difficult to field its own similar system or to create countermeasures against hypersonic weapons, risks ensuring that the Russians enjoy the dominant position. Unless America finds a countermeasure or its own hypersonic weapons, that balance of power with Russia will forever tilt in Moscow’s favor. 

It was always about the balance of power and the myopia of NATO's procurement based on obsolete technological and, hence, tactical and operational views. What is most important, however, in all of this is relentless work by Soviet Union and Russia in developing a reliable and survivable system of both surface and space-based recon and targeting allowing for reliable targeting globally. By 1980s USSR had such a system--MKRC Legenda. Today it is Liana. Here, you can access a superb two-part article (by professionals, no less-Ph.Ds engineers) in Arsenal Otechestva (Arsenal of Fatherland) titled: The Concept of Perfecting of the System of Naval Space Recon and Targeting (in Russian). Part 1 and Part 2. On photo is a good ol' Korall-B from Oscar-II (pr. 949A) SSGNs. 

What they describe already exists and now expands. Plus, modern recon is much more than space-based systems--it is also and even primarily so a sensor (data) fusion across all types of heterogeneous sensors, which provides a reliable resolution of uncertainties. 

Meanwhile, Kiev had a night party today and rocked throughout the night:

At the very end you can see the arrival of either Kinzhal or Iskander and that gives you some idea about why the US has neither real hypersonic weapon nor, what is even more important, any means of intercepting it. Trump was "dissatisfied" with massive strikes by Russia. Well, what can I say ... too fucking bad.