The Perils Of Mosquito-II

The idea of a small ship capable of carrying out large tasks is, certainly, not new. After all, already mentioned, Jeune Ecole imagined naval combat being conducted by the swarms of small torpedo and cannon-boats, which would be controlled by the telegraph. One of the main factors which influenced Jeune Ecole was the invention of the shell and Canon-obusier (or shell-firing cannon) by Henri-Joseph Paixhans, which changed drastically, including an improvement in accuracy, the main striking weapon of the fleets--naval gun. Russians demonstrated the effectiveness of Canon-obusier in the Battle Of Sinop in 1853, when Russian Squadron defeated Turkish Fleet. The shell-firing cannon came of age in this battle. It also made it onto the small ships.

We know the rest of the story, that is until new weapon emerged. 

This weapon sent shock waves through naval world, when on 21 October  1967, Israeli Navy's INS Eilat was sunk by a two-missile salvo of Soviet-made Anti-Shipping Missiles (ASM) P-15 Termit (Styx), launched from Egyptian Soviet-made Komar-class (Project 183) small missile boat. The fact that the boat with 61 ton of displacement could sink a 1700 ton destroyer not by a torpedo seemed obscene at the time. Well, it is not obscene anymore. As Operation Trident by Indian Navy in 1971 demonstrated to a devastating effect--few Osa-class (project 205) boats armed with Styx  ASMs were capable to achieve a strategic result despite a minuscule displacement of combatants. And then, of course, came Falkland War which was an eye-opening experience for many in Anglo-Saxon naval community. Royal Navy did its duty well and won the war but paid a steep price. ASM not only has arrived as a viable naval strike weapon, it has arrived as THE weapon of the naval warfare, which was a really bad news for the US Navy's carrier trade union. 

Sure, one may say (and many do) that mosquito ASM capabilities are really not that great. Sure they are not by the very fact that this kind of fleet is called Mosquito for an engineering (and Russian convention of naming its missile boats classes after mosquitoes)  reasons and is not capable to carry an immensely important component of ship's defense--a capable Air Defense Complex. Left to its own devices, any missile boat ends like the Libyan Fleet in the action in the Gulf Of Sidra in March of 1986 against....US Navy. The chances of these few Libyan boats, armed only with Osa Air Defense Missile Complexes against overwhelming fire-power of the US Fleet were, frankly, approaching zero. But in this operation, as well as in Falkland War, both US and Royal Navies fought what was essentially Sea Control Battles against the opponents who would attempt to challenge them in what today could be termed as A2/AD  (Anti-Access/ Area Denial) framework. Argentinians, although defeated, fared incomparably better than Libyans. It took Royal Navy's HMS Conqueror and outstanding performance of RN's pilots from British carriers to break Argentina's attempts to deny Royal Navy access to the occupied islands. 

The outlook for the Mosquito fleet, however, changes drastically  when it is deployed and used  properly. And, as both successful (sinking of Eilat) and disastrous (Battle Of Latakia) for Arabs use of the missile boats demonstrates, they can be used from the naval base location, without any deployment even within nations' littorals. The problem with Arabs, though, was in the fact that....well, to put it mildly, they had neither means nor abilities to use their boats effectively. In fact, in this funny business of Sea Denial, A2/AD, what have you, the main thing is, as Admiral Sergei Gorshkov pointed out in his The Sea Power Of The State  (not the Sea Power AND The State as it is known in the West), interaction.  In other words--you want to deny the enemy access, say, to your littoral, be ready to do it with the use of heterogeneous forces which will be able to interact--that is act in concert towards achieving the same A2/AD goal. For the green water fleets, and it is there where the bulk of the "mosquitoes" to be found, which are run by even mildly competent leaders--the main task will remain to provide conditions for the missile boats to launch their main weapon. To do so, they will need to avoid the fate of Libyan missile boats in the Gulf Of Sidra. That means two major conditions to be fulfilled against the navies which count Force Projection as their main doctrinal goal and that leaves us with very few navies in the world, headed, of course, by the US Navy and its whole structure honed for blowing shit up anywhere in the world where alleged US national interests are "threatened"--these conditions are viable Air Defense and ASW (Anti Submarine Warfare). Today, there is only one navy in the world, which can provide, however barely, the existence and survival of its mosquito component against any adversary--Russian Navy. Russians always had pretty good understanding (and experience) of the shortcomings and advantages of the missile boats and that is why today, Russia develops not one but two different types of the missile boats, which will be able to fill the niche inside the heterogeneous forces package, capable to deliver needed amount of high explosives to the pre-determined location at the pre-determined time. In fact, Russian navy deploys today the only boats in the world capable of purely naval combat (that is against surface targets) and for the strikes to a strategic depth on such theaters as Europe or launch missiles from Caspian Sea to Persian Gulf. 

    

I propose, that the development of these kinds of ships (boats) and of the missile complexes they carry is completely new, paradigm-shifting, development but before I continue, hopefully during the Labor Day weekend, I want to make some important points. 

Disclaimer: I know, there are armies of internet "warriors" who browse world-wide-web constantly in search of the virtual fights and who do not understand that behind all this fancy military lingo is the reality of the combat with blood, suffering, torn limbs, horrible burns, torturous deaths. I am terrified by the possibility of Russia and US going to war, but I am also terrified by the blood-thirst of all kinds of patriots who are ready to fight somebody, while sitting in the chairs as I am doing now. 

I have a profound respect to US Navy, its glorious history and many people, who served and still serve there, some of those people are my closest and dearest friends and they are not war mongers. However, the continuation of the posts on mosquito fleet, inevitably, will lead to a description of the scenario which is in the air, but, hopefully is not becoming a reality, in which US Navy will try to test Russia's littoral defenses and this scenario will, certainly, involve participation on a massive scale of Russian Navy's mosquito capabilities, which, as some already guessed, will be covered in the air and from beneath by necessary means which, in Russian language, are called Naryad Sil  (Required Force--what is Naryad and why it is called as such, in English it means dressed, is a separate discussion;-)   Meanwhile, I leave you with the question of why late Admiral Cebrowsky's (hell, try Zumwalt and his Project 60) ideas of Street Fighter will not work in US. 

“Severodvinsk” launched cruise missile

Mosquito Bite.

As I wrote some time ago about Russian Navy's newest Karakurt-class small missile ships, these ships will have a very potent air defense system, navalized Pantsyr, installed on them. This was confirmed today by Deputy Defense Minister of Russian Federation Yuri Borisov at the ceremony of laying down latest project 22800 (Karakurt) MRK "Shkval" (Squall) at Pella shipyard, not far from St. Petersburg.  Unlike other, now very famous, Byan-class (project 21631) MRKs, armed only with rudimentary Gibka air-defense complex, navalized Pantsyr gives 800-ton Karakurts  ability to not only effectively defend themselves against a variety of air threats but even perform AD functions while operating as escorts. 

It is too early to speculate on what this navalized Pantsyr will be, but it is clear that its naval version will retain both missiles and guns in complex. It is an extremely intelligent system and it brings a completely new capability to a small ships which already pack a tremendous punch both in anti-ship and land-strike configurations and are capable to operate up to 3,000 miles from the base.

It was a dream of Admiral Aube, known for his fanatical support of Jeune Ecole,  to see such a fleet operating on the high seas. Well, looks like his dreams, as well as validation of Jeune Ecole concepts, have finally been fulfilled....150 years later. Talk about maturity of technology. Mosquito fleet is coming out, missiles and guns blazing, to change naval warfare forever. We are, as incomparable Captain Wayne Hughes wrote, in missile age and there is no escaping it.  Complex networks of MRKs, SSKs, land based aviation, integrated vertically and horizontally, capable to absorb a blow and then strike back with immense force--we are at the cusp of a revolution in Sea Denial and A2/AD.

   

Some Technological Issues For The Russian Navy.

No, I am not talking about those well-known issues of re-tooling and modernization of wharves and issues related to that. No. I am talking about the issue of a fleet facing a completely new technological reality, aka Real Revolution in Military Affairs, and being forced to adapt literally on the run with all that follows, including rewriting its own fighting doctrine, tactics and reviewing its force structure. Enter this damn 3M22 Zircon and Marshal Shaposhnikov, now officially, a destroyer (instead of being Large ASW Ship in his previous life) and long time "reservist" K-132 Irkutsk of Oscar-II (project 949A) SSGN. The hint with Shaposhnikov was obvious. Compare this picture from from 2017:

With this, from October 2019. 

See the difference? It is huge, Shaposhnikov has two large technological holes created behind her, now lone, 100-mm gun and those holes are, obviously, for UKSK (3C14) VLS. Now, it has been revealed that apart from seemingly obvious mix of Kalibr's 3M14-3M54-91RT family missiles, Shaposhnikov WILL carry, drum roll, 3M22 Zircon.   

БПК "Маршал Шапошников" и подлодка "Иркутск" смогут применять ракеты "Циркон". АПЛ "Иркутск", в частности, модернизируют до уровня 949АМ

Translation: Large ASW Ship Marshal Shaposhnikov and submarine Irkutsk will be able to use Zircon missiles. Submarine Irkutsk, specifically, is being modernized to project 949AM level.

This, obviously, explains a "delay", or rather "progression" of modernization plans for Shaposhnikov. As for Oscars, their Zirconization was obvious from the git go. In fact, Russian Navy's Zirconization is now an established fact. These ships are for Russia's Pacific Fleet, which is in desperate need for modernization (it is ongoing as I type this) and is getting to be (back) a key stability factor both in nuclear deterrence and in Asia by conventional means. Just imagine one of these things stuffed with Zirkons and Onyxes to the hilt hanging out somewhere under the cover of Russian ASW and fighter-interceptor aviation, and latest SSKs.

See the possibilities now? 

TOOD

This is not anymore A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) "bubble", this is (may I copyright this?) Theater Of Operations Denial (TOOD) doctrine in action. But then again, traditional geopolitics as it was conceived in times of steam and ironclads is dead as are dead old fighting naval doctrines. But I warned about it years ago, didn't I? Here is one of such warnings. 

I propose, that the development of these kinds of ships (boats) and of the missile complexes they carry is completely new, paradigm-shifting, development but before I continue, hopefully during the Labor Day weekend, I want to make some important points.

Disclaimer: I know, there are armies of internet "warriors" who browse world-wide-web constantly in search of the virtual fights and who do not understand that behind all this fancy military lingo is the reality of the combat with blood, suffering, torn limbs, horrible burns, torturous deaths. I am terrified by the possibility of Russia and US going to war, but I am also terrified by the blood-thirst of all kinds of patriots who are ready to fight somebody, while sitting in the chairs as I am doing now.

I have a profound respect to US Navy, its glorious history and many people, who served and still serve there, some of those people are my closest and dearest friends and they are not war mongers. However, the continuation of the posts on mosquito fleet, inevitably, will lead to a description of the scenario which is in the air, but, hopefully is not becoming a reality, in which US Navy will try to test Russia's littoral defenses and this scenario will, certainly, involve participation on a massive scale of Russian Navy's mosquito capabilities, which, as some already guessed, will be covered in the air and from beneath by necessary means which, in Russian language, are called Naryad Sil  (Required Force--what is Naryad and why it is called as such, in English it means dressed, is a separate discussion;-)   Meanwhile, I leave you with the question of why late Admiral Cebrowsky's (hell, try Zumwalt and his Project 60) ideas of Street Fighter will not work in US.

I don't think I need to add anything here. 

Update: I need to add something here, after all. LOL. Zvezda TV already ran news video on this whole issue. In Russian. Pay attention to update (modernization) of good ol' pr. 1234 with 16 X-35 Uran anti-shipping missiles. 

The Perils Of Mosquito (conclusion).

I was about to continue with fairly extensive conclusion on the topic of Mosquitoes when, well, Russian Navy, or, to be more precise, Red Banner Caspian Flotilla simply demonstrated what those small missile ships, granted, accompanied by a larger corvette Dagestan, can do. The file on REAL distributed lethality is, finally, open. 4 ships, with total displacement of about half that of a single destroyer and the price tag even less than that, launched the salvo of 26 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Some time later, those missiles hit 11 targets of terrorists in Syria--about 1500 kilometers away. Strategic ramifications of this are colossal, it was clear already before, but after today it became a reality of an immense power of modern missile weapons and those seemingly "unimpressive" platforms which carry them. After all, the range of Kalibr is up to 2500 kilometers and GLONASS' combat (not civilian) CEP  (Circular Error Probable) is rumored to be about 0.4-0.6 meters, that is 1.5-2 feet. 

Will Russia put active homing device on Kalibrs? Possible, but 5000 kilometer range cruise missiles are already in line for procurement.

P.S. Now I have to rewrite almost completed article for Proceedings submission. The article about, and you may have guessed it already, what else--Mosquito fleet.  

 

The Perils Of Mosquito-I

When incomparable Captain Wayne Hughes published his seminal Fleet Tactics And Coastal Combat, I guess, Mahan worshipers and Carrier Trade Union (c) went apoplectic.  

              

                             

To write about "missile era", "coastal combat" and describe small, missiles' armed US Navy's fictional Cushings to demonstrate an example of real naval combat--that is a heresy in the US Navy, which, as none other than Elmo Zumwalt put it, got used to "travel first class". Yet, Hughes' book gained a cult status among both naval aficionados and professionals, some of whom, such as Admiral Blair (at a time, C'n'C of Pacific Command) or Vice Admiral Lauthenbacher Jr. (at a time, Deputy CNO), gave the book and the author absolutely rave reviews. I can only join in my deepest admiration for Captain Hughes and his brilliant mind. 

The ongoing disaster with LCSs and huge issues with AD/A2 for US Navy only underscored the problems which develop with the fundamental premise of the Sea Control (that is, largely, US Navy) fleet, as Hughes puts it, is "Saying that navies don't "purchase and possess real estate" as armies do is to emphasize the navy as a means toward the end of controlling an enemy on the ground. Rarely is the center of gravity of a conflict on the sea or in the air." The international consensus, at least for the last two decades, is that the US Navy is doing just fine when providing the freedom of the seas and keeping Shipping Lanes Of Communications (SLOC) open. The set of the problems emerges within littorals, the coastal combat and US Navy's function of  Force Projection when it is against, and you may have guessed it already, peer or near-peer power. Of course, the US Navy thinks that it can fight and win the battle on the high seas, or open ocean, against any enemy and here US Navy has ample reasons to think so--it is, presently, undeniably the most powerful navy in the world with a superb naval tradition and combat history. But magnificent naval battles Americans won against Japan on the WW II teach only limited lessons on the modern combat. Why it is so is quite obvious--nuclear weapons and anti-shipping missiles. 

US Navy, at least its Carrier Trade Union, doesn't like anti-shipping missiles. So much so, that I will simply post here the scan from Admiral Zumwalt's marvelous memoirs  On Watch:    

              

You can easily make your own conclusions on what can only be described as the sabotage of anti-shipping missiles (ASM) development in the US Navy. No surprise then, that even today US Navy cannot deploy any true supersonic, let alone hyper-sonic, ASM. But here is the issue--some other power, of which we speak not as of yet--does have those and, apart from understanding their utility for fighting on the high seas, it developed this absolutely atrocious idea that those Mach 2-3, long range ASMs, with the development of miniature solid state electronics and improvement in propulsion could be very valuable in the littoral. Moreover, one doesn't have to spent 12 billion dollars to attain the saturation threshold of ANY air defense system to solve this one and only, most important, contemporary problem of any navy--the problem of a "leaker". In fact, this could be done for a relatively small price and can (and it did) solve the issue of the safety of own littoral. After all, the final target the fleet is on the land. It is there, where hostile government has a seat. 

For decades, during the Cold War, naval staffs of both US and USSR were calculating the probabilities of success, respectively, in attacking and defending the Soviet/Russia coast. And it was then that Russians invoked the spirits of Jeune Ecole  and its radical, for its time, ideas that, as Theodore Ropp summarized it about Jeune Ecole:

1. The weaker fleet would stay at its bases and refuse combat.

2. The stronger would be forced to do the same, for fear of the torpedo.

3.The only significant naval activity would be commercial warfare.

4. Warfare would be absolutely merciless, disregarding the laws of war.

You can read Eric Dahl's brilliant expose on Jeune Ecole in Naval War College Review here:

NET-CENTRIC BEFORE ITS TIME The Jeune École and Its Lessons for Today 

 We do not concern ourselves here with pps.3 and 4, since they require additional, and extensive, elaborations, but pps.1 and 2 capture the essence of the Coastal (or Littoral) Combat superbly, when pp.1 is corrected with addition of a single caveat:

The weaker fleet would stay at its bases and refuse combat on the high seas.    

In the littoral, however, under the defensive umbrella of own coastal aviation, screens of SSKs, which are honed for operations in this type of waters, the weaker fleet, armed with modern ASMs and well networked, becomes a true deadly menace for any navy. What used to be called a mosquito fleet becomes capable of sinking any enemy ship thus rendering enemy's capital ships useless when trying to "project force"  and that may have truly strategic, and even global, ramifications. Just like that. This reality is beginning to dawn on US Navy. Hence, however disastrous, program of LCS, which was based on Admiral Cebrowsky's "Street Fighter" concept (correct one, I may add).  In the end, FERs (Fractional Exchange Rates) do define the outcome and there is no better exchange rate (including financially), then to provide conditions for 1 billion dollars worth of assets do the job  on the force whose monetary value runs into tens of billions, while its mission could be killed by about 10 to 15 million dollars worth of leakers.  This is an excellent exchange rate from any point of view. Thus is A2/AD issue which torments US Navy today--at least it is an indicator that the Navy with so much combat history is trying to stay realistic, despite a horrendous news of the production for the sequel for Top Gun ;-) That is scary......

           

To be continued.....

First Down, Many More To Go.

As was expected, the first Project 22800 Small Missile Ship (Karakurt-class) was floated out on the eve of traditional Russia's Navy Day celebration (last weekend of every July). It is the first ship, traditionally named after wind calamities, Uragan (Hurricane), of the large series--13 similar boats are in a different state of completion over several Russia's shipyards. First three ships of this class will not have a navalized version of the famed Pantsir AD complex, all following those first three will have it. This will give these 800 ton displacing ships an immense bang for a buck in surface warfare scenarios. 

getting ready

 

Stern view

afloat

Thus Russian tradition of building serious littoral forces, now with a very impressive reach to a strategic depth, once one considers 3M14 capabilities, continues. This is not to speak of pure anti-shipping punch these boats pack. Unlike now globally known Project 21631 Buyan-class missile ships, Karakurts have better sea keeping properties which, most likely, will allow them to venture painlessly into Mediterranean in anti-shipping (and, of course, land-attack) role in support of Russian fleet operating near Syria. This will be serious addition considering the fact that with navalized Pantsir installed Karakurts will provide a superb short-range (up to 20 kilometers) air defense cover. 

Operational and strategic implications of this Mosquito fleet actively entering its In Being  phase, are immense, way out of proportion with the modest size of these ships. With such ships counting in dozens and packing such a punch one can only guess how this all may play out in the nearest future.

No Shit, Or The End Of Irony.

Sometimes one has to simply avoid commenting. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that Moscow and Beijing should be included in the global effort to stop terrorist groups from using the Taliban-run Afghanistan as ground to stage attacks abroad.“I strongly agree that the whole international community, including Russia and China, needs to work to prevent Afghanistan being a place where terrorist groups can operate freely and prepare, organize, plan, finance attacks against our own countries,” Stoltenberg told the Telegraph.The NATO chief echoed the words of UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who said last month that countries like Russia and China would have to be brought in to help check the situation in Afghanistan after power there was seized by the Taliban.

Sergei Viktorovich, help! 

Or, just to remind everyone Boris Gromov and Dmitry Rogozin 11 years ago (again). Stoltenberg, this is for you: 

In fact, we were the first to defend Western civilization against the attacks of Muslim fanatics. No one thanked us. On the contrary, everyone was impeding our actions: The United States, NATO, Iran, Pakistan, even China. After the withdrawal of the Soviet Army, the Najibullah government that we left behind in Kabul remained in power for another three years.

No more defending from Russia. Western Civilization doesn't deserve it anymore. Meanwhile, Taliban states that: 

ТЕГЕРАН, 5 сентября. /Корр. ТАСС Никита Смагин/. Движение "Талибан" (запрещено в РФ) заинтересовано в налаживании отношений с Россией, Ираном и Пакистаном. Об этом заявил в воскресенье в интервью ТАСС глава Высшего совета спасения Афганистана, бывший полевой командир "Талибана" Мохаммад Акбар Ага. "Россия является нашим соседом. Мы должны выстраивать широкие отношения с Москвой, поскольку это в интересах и талибов, и РФ, - сказал он. - Иран и Пакистан - также страны, с которыми нужно налаживать отношения. Мы нужны им, и они нужны нам".

Translation:  TEHERAN, September 5. / Corr. TASS Nikita Smagin /. The Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) is interested in improving relations with Russia, Iran and Pakistan. This was announced on Sunday in an interview with TASS by the head of the Supreme Council for the Rescue of Afghanistan, the former field commander of the Taliban, Mohammad Akbar Agha. “Russia is our neighbor. We must build broad relations with Moscow, since this is in the interests of both the Taliban and the Russian Federation,” he said. “Iran and Pakistan are also countries with which we need to establish relations. They need us, and we need them. "

Will see. 

Here is some treat, a bit of innards of Karakurts and a meeting with my good ol' M-504 (they powered ships I served on) now modernized and expanded to M-507 engines. In Russian. 

Mosquito fleet is here to stay and it is not going anywhere. In fact, its strike potential will only grow.

There Are Always Consequences.

I am talking about Finland and Sweden and them joining NATO. First, there have been economic measures from Russia which are helping now to bankrupt a number of Finnish industries. Now, the question: what happens if you take a number of these:

Then take this:  

And do classic maneuver by forces. Like this:

Well, you get this:

Военно-технический ответ на расширение НАТО готовят на Ладожском озере — оно может стать местом запуска ракет малыми ракетными кораблями (МРК). Минобороны провело комплексную работу по изучению возможностей базирования кораблей и выполнению боевых задач в этой акватории, сообщили источники «Известий» в военном ведомстве. По результатам исследований, которые шли несколько месяцев, признано, что МРК могут эффективно действовать в Ладожском озере. Эксперты отмечают, что это адекватная мера после расширения НАТО на северо-западе: отсюда корабли могут держать под прицелом Финляндию.«Это вполне здравый военно-технический ответ на вступление Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО. Ладожское озеро достаточно большое. Во время Великой Отечественной войны там действовала Ладожская флотилия, после войны дислоцировались различные силы. Это хорошая идея — обеспечить стрельбу «Буянами» и «Каракуртами» по целям НАТО. Кроме того, этот район не так хорошо известен разведке альянса, как балтийские базы», — рассказал «Известиям» военный историк Дмитрий Болтенков.

Translation: A military-technical response to NATO expansion is being prepared on Lake Ladoga - it could become a missile launch site for small missile ships (SMRVs). The Ministry of Defense has carried out comprehensive work to study the possibilities of basing ships and performing combat missions in this water area, sources in the military department told Izvestia. Based on the results of research that took several months, it was recognized that RTOs can operate effectively in Lake Ladoga. Experts note that this is an adequate measure after NATO expansion in the north-west: from here ships can keep Finland at gunpoint. “This is a completely sound military-technical response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Lake Ladoga is quite large. During the Great Patriotic War, the Ladoga Flotilla operated there, and after the war various forces were stationed. It is a good idea to ensure that Buyans and Karakurts fire at NATO targets. In addition, this area is not as well known to alliance intelligence as the Baltic bases,” military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.

You see how simple it is to operate when you have alternatives in case someone decides to fight war with Russia in the North. Same as Caspian Flotilla can navigate from Caspian Sea to Azov Sea and further. That's the power of the mosquito fleet with draughts allowing it to navigate internal river and lake routes while having weapons' ranges of more than 2,500 kilometers. Finland and Sweden made their choice, now Russia is making hers. Just in case...

Citius, Altius, Fortius, Etc.

The Olympic motto which translates, from Latin, as Faster, Higher, Stronger is fully applicable to weapon systems' design, granted that sometimes Higher becomes Lower. Russia takes these principles to heart when making her weapons and it is not difficult to predict, really, what comes next. As TASS reports:

MOSCOW, January 8. /TASS/. New Kalibr-M cruise missile with a range of over 4,500 km is currently under development in Russia for the Russian Navy, a source in the military-industrial complex told TASS on Tuesday."The newest high-precision ship-based Kalibr-M cruise missile with a maximum firing range of more than 4,500 km is being developed for the Russian Navy. The creation of the rocket is at the stage of scientific research and financed by the Ministry of Defense," the source told TASS. The source clarified that the development of the missile was included in the state armament program until 2027, and "the rocket must be transferred to the fleet before the end of the program."

Anyone with even rudimentary understanding of modern warfare and technology can easily arrive to the (correct) conclusion that TLAM variant of 3M14 with 4,500+ kilometer range immediately translates into some anti-shipping variant of 3M54 whose range is measured not in high hundreds (currently it is officially 660+ kilometers) but in thousands kilometers. All, I underscore, all signs in missile development by USSR/Russia were pointing to one destination for decades now--very high velocities (current 3M54 accelerates, while violently maneuvering, on terminal approach to almost M=3) and very long ranges. It seems Russian Navy is moving into this territory steadily. 

Ramifications are enormous--they allow even weak in terms of air-defense carriers of such missiles to stay way out of ranges of any, including aircraft carrier attack jets, adversary's weapon systems and turn even mosquito fleet, properly integrated with national reconnaissance/targeting system, into peer to even most advanced and expensive weapons of the opponent. If terrifying Kinzhal requires MiG-31K or TU-22M3M to launch, 3M54 (and 3M14M TLAM) and what, it seems, comes after that can strike from anywhere to anywhere on any types of targets. In TLAM variant--4,500+ kilometers, not too shabby once placed on ocean-going ships such as pr. 22350 Gorshkov-class or submarines. So, striking US East Coast doesn't even require crossing GIUK gap, while the strikes on US West Coast could be easily done by missile ships and submarines from Kamchatka's immediate littoral under the umbrella of ASW and Air Defense aviation. This was coming for sometime and it is simply normal, natural development of the weapon systems which Soviet, and now Russian, Navy made the core of its striking power, you know--like in Olympic motto.  

Strategic Missile...Boat, literally?  Looks like.

Karakurts.

Not gonna lie--I always had it for mosquito fleet. Having seen and experienced organization and the scale of 2nd and 1st Rank ships and subs, often informal, closely kneaded crews with much more interpersonal relations at smaller combatants--that was always attractive for me, as well as for many others. Today, when one sees those state-of-the-art small ships which pack an enormous punch, one is forced to rethink the whole meaning of the service. In the end, modern Buyan-class or Karakurts can strike anything in Europe without even leaving their bases in the Baltic or Black Sea.  Things changed so much today.

Uragan's Bridge

Uragan and Typhoon

Uragan

Thanks to the guys from Airbase for these photos.   

Now You Know.

Yes, those Russian shovels.  

Laser-guided, some of them are INS and GLONASS guided with command updates, active radar seekers and shit. Meanwhile, this text is now being circulated in Russian media. Here is the part of it:

Любопытный текст с анализом действий ВС РФ и ВСУ от западного военного эксперта, предположительно перевод с форума ветеранов военной академии West Point: "Spirit of the Desert: …Поскольку украинцы проявляют поразительную нечувствительность к человеческим потерям, сегодняшнее изменение тактики украинского командования я рассматриваю как оправданный подход в поиске «ключа» к русской обороне. Классические атаки по нашим боевым уставам предполагают предварительное подавление и разрушение оборонительных позиций противника артиллерией и авиацией, а так же одновременное уничтожение его органов боевого управления на глубину полосы обороны и недопущение подходов его резервов. Поскольку у украинцев практически нет авиации и они существенно уступают русским в количестве артиллерии, классические атаки не приводят ни к чему, кроме массовой потери дорогой боевой техники на подходе к русским позициям, дезорганизации и деморализации атакующих с последующим отступлением. Почти три недели таких атак так и не смогли прорвать русскую полосу обеспечения, кроме того, было потеряно, как мне сказал «G-3» из USAREUR-AF в Stuttgart, уже до четверти наших «Bradley», и они сейчас вынуждены экстренно отправлять две роты «Bradley» и много другой техники на пополнение и восстановление боеготовности двух бригад ударного соединения украинцев. В этих условиях нашими парнями, совместно с украинскими командирами была разработана тактика «москитного» продвижения – непрерывных атак русских позиций небольшими тактическими группами украинской пехоты...

Translation: An interesting text analyzing the actions of the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine from a Western military expert, presumably translated from the West Point military academy veterans forum: "Spirit of the Desert: ... Since the Ukrainians show amazing insensitivity to human losses, I consider today's change in tactics of the Ukrainian command as a justified approach in search of a "key" to the Russian defense. Classic attacks, according to our combat regulations, involve the preliminary suppression and destruction of the enemy's defensive positions by artillery and aircraft, as well as the simultaneous destruction of his combat command and control organs to the depth of the defense zone and the prevention of the approaches of his reserves. Since the Ukrainians practically there is no aviation and they are significantly inferior to the Russians in the amount of artillery, classic attacks do not lead to anything, except for the mass loss of expensive military equipment on the way to Russian positions, disorganization and demoralization of the attackers, followed by a retreat.Almost three weeks of such attacks could not break through the Russian moreover, up to a quarter of our Bradleys have been lost, as G-3 from USAREUR-AF in Stuttgart told me, and they are now forced to urgently send two Bradley companies and many other equipment for replenishment and restoration of the combat readiness of two brigades of the strike formation of Ukrainians. Under these conditions, our guys, together with the Ukrainian commanders, developed the tactics of "mosquito" advance - continuous attacks on Russian positions by small tactical groups of Ukrainian infantry ...

I couldn't find the origin of this. So, guys, a request--if some one can find it, please provide a link. If this text is true--it is literally the most preposterous shit I ever read on operations (and tactics). It defies imagination and tactical and operational truisms of concentration of forces. Not to mention the fact, if to assume the text being genuine, of treating ukies as worthless cannon fodder.  

Hunchbacks. The Ships Of My Officer Youth.

Cannot believe they pulled this from archives. This is one of the first hulls of what would become a workhorse with incredible sea-keeping properties--project 205P ships. Naval Units of Border Guards KGB USSR workhorse, almost 300 tons of displacement armed to the hilt. Here is 1972 documentary about one of the first hulls of those amazing ships which became known as Hunchbacks in Border Guards and which would perform some amazing feats of service (including actual naval combat) on all Soviet/Russia's seas and oceans. 

I served on many of those and we went to sea when no one else would dare. Here is one, at the 2nd pier in Baku (our brigade) in mid-1980s. 

These ships still come to me in my dreams because time after time they were doing things you wouldn't expect from them. By the time I got to them in 1985 they were updated with satellite navigation (Cikada) and other new, digitized, perks but no matter--those were our home at sea. 

I spent time on many ships and subs in my life, from magnificent Kiev and pr. 641B SSK to Oscars, but these ships still make my heart beat faster each time I see them. This may explain, I guess, my attraction to US Navy's (later USCG) Cyclone-class ships. I am still a mosquito navy guy, deep down. In the end, these were tight, almost family and much less formal, relations within crews. We were ready to die for each-other as were those ships. Just to give some impression--these boats had official angle of capsizing (the angle at which ship...well, capsizes) of 89 degrees, they literally would pull your ass out of deadly angles. I know, they saved my, and my crew's, sorry asses on a number of occasions. 

Perils Of Mosquito (re-opened).

So, the news are that two hulls of Project 1241 Molnya missile boats which remained in the state of limbo for a while will be completed by the shipyard Vympel to specifications of Project 12418 missile corvettes. 

Molnya (Lightning) To Become A Thunderbolt (In Russian) 

For those who do not remember, those ungainly ships went into existence as Tarantul-class missile boats in 1970s and even US Navy had one  (former DDR Navy's Hiddensee) serving at Naval Air Warfare Center in Maryland in 1990s. Latest iterations of venerable Tarantuls, however, are a different game. Project 12418 corvettes are armed with....drum roll..16 Uran-E (Switchblade) missiles. 

Here is the model: 

 Here is a movie:

 Here are Vietnamese Navy's (export) versions:

There will be obvious upgrades, including latest electronic suite for corvettes for the Russian Navy. 

What does it all mean? Considering the fact that in Sea Denial and A2/AD business a salvo means a lot, it means that theoretical salvo of Russian Navy in the theater, where these corvettes will be serving, grows by additional 32 anti-shipping missiles. That is a lot, to put it mildly without resorting (which I will eventually) to the specifics of Salvo Equations and coefficients which constitute them. Obviously, such corvettes have very limited Air Defense (for now) and no ASW suites to talk about, but they fit perfectly into the littoral A2/AD settings where other heterogeneous forces will be taking care of air defense and ASW. Now consider the fact that Russian Navy is actively building Project 22160 Patrol Ships (these ones carry UKSK and have a very respectable air defense) and this clearly indicates that Russia is building her Navy "from the shore" thus indicating a very defensive posture. Will Russia eventually build full blown Blue Water Fleet? Here is the puzzle: will it be Power Projection or Sea Denial Navy? I guess the latter is the most likely scenario.   

What's Next In Arms Race? Or, The Forms Must Be Obeyed.

Daniel Larison arrived three days ago to a conclusion that Donald Trump Doesn't Know How to Negotiate. Well, we have known that for quite some time now. As Larison notes:

As we have seen, Trump’s bullying, maximalist approach does not work with other governments, and this approach cannot work because the president sees everything as a zero-sum game and winning requires the other side’s capitulation. The result is that no government gives Trump anything and instead all of them retaliate in whatever way is available to them. He can’t agree to a mutually beneficial compromise because he rejects the idea that the other side might come away with something. Because every existing agreement negotiated in the past has required some compromise on our government’s part, he condemns all of them as “terrible” because they did not result in the other party’s surrender.  

Of course, the foundation of this lack of negotiating skills--yeah, let's say it is just that, for now--is common for pretty much majority of US power elite--it is a malignant belief in own exceptionalism. Trump is flesh and blood of this culture, it is just that not having any serious scholarly nourishment or life experiences beyond the NYC real estate hustling, he delivers the message in the most crude and risible form. So, Trump is merely a cruder, less sophisticated form of US elites. He, most likely after brainwashing by his very own so called national security team, simply finished off INF Treaty. He, quite naturally, blamed Russia for violating this Treaty and, in two weeks after INF Treaty's demise, the United States launched the missile outlawed by this very treaty, thus creating a variety, of mostly sarcastic, reactions in Moscow, who, as we all know from the ever truthful US media, was blatantly violating the said treaty. The whole situation could have been really comedic, if not for it being very serious and that was precisely the mood with which Vladimir Putin responded to, what we all knew for years now, inevitable deployment of American TLAMs in the Aegis Ashore installations and other places in Europe. 

Russia says it won’t sit idle after the US tested a missile that was banned by the INF. As a response, Moscow has an ace up its sleeves and it won’t need to enter into a Cold War-style arms race, military analysts have told RT.No longer bound by the milestone Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) – which the US unilaterally scrapped – Washington recently tested a ground-launched version of its Tomahawk cruise missile.On Friday, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he is not up for an all-out arms race, but ordered the military to evaluate and find reciprocal answers. So, what is Russia likely to have in store to counter the emerging threat?

First, let's recall what the INF Treaty was about and why the United States decided to kill it. As was stated not for once, INF Treaty was extremely favorable to the United States for a while because it didn't cover sea-launched intermediate range weapons--a precise domain in which in the end of 1980s the United States had a vast advantage over Soviet Union, whose main intermediate-range strike capabilities were land-based. Cretin Gorbachev and his "team", in the moment of utter insanity, unilaterally threw in, for a good measure, Operational-Tactical Missile complex (OTR-23) Oka to be eliminated. Then, the USSR collapsed and Russia has unilaterally, again, this time through the will of alcoholic Boris and his team of thieves and robber-barons turned herself into the door mat for the combined West. In fact, by the end of 1990s it was difficult to see how Russia's military could recover at all, granted it was sabotaged every step of the way by Russia's "liberal" political top. Yet, here we are in 2019 and one has to wonder if Russia is realistically sorry because of INF Treaty demise. I don't think she is. 

I kept my focus on this issue for years now. Recall my series of posts  titled The Perils of Mosquito. Or, for that matter, my prediction (even before Putin's historic speech to Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018) that, at that time (2017), Russia's existing cruise missile arsenal was more than enough to provide for what Russian Military Doctrine of 2014 called a "power (as in force) strategic containment by conventional high-precision stand-off weapons".  Remember this? 

Iran knows for sure that should the unthinkable but not improbable happen, such as an American attack on the Russian forces in Syria, Iran will not be left standing on the side—she gets immediately “involved” whether she wants it or not. So, the logic goes, why not make the best of it when all bets, other than nuclear, will be off. Iran may as well have Russian forces on her side and in her airspace, which, obviously helps significantly. But that also opens another serious operational possibility in case of a real conventional conflict in the area between Russia and the US—a scenario Neocons, due to their military illiteracy and overall detachment from the strategic reality, are dreaming about. Putting inevitable emotions aside and looking at the factual side of things, Russia’s Military Doctrine since 2010, reaffirmed in 2014 Edition, views the use of stand-off High Precision as a key in strategic force containment, as Article 26 of a doctrine clearly states. Russia doesn’t want war with the US, but if push comes to shove Russia is totally capable of not only reaching US ground assets, such as CENTCOM’s Qatar forward installation but, what is even more significant, also the naval ones in the Persian Gulf.  

Then came the Speech and a tectonic shift in the warfare which pushed warfare beyond present capabilities of the American military-industrial complex. One of many hints that (real) professionals in the US understand what they are facing now was this, four days ago:  

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon is pulling the plug on a billion-dollar, technically troubled project to build a better weapon that would destroy incoming missiles. The move is aimed in part at considering new approaches to missile defense at a time of rapid technological change. The announced reason for canceling the Boeing contract, effective Thursday, was that the project’s design problems were so significant as to be either insurmountable or too costly to correct. Beyond those immediate concerns, the Pentagon is considering whether it needs to start over with designing a defense against intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, such as those North Korea aspires to build, as well as newly emerging types of missiles.

Pay attention to text highlighted in yellow. Those "newly emerging types of the missiles" are precisely those hyper-sonic maneuvering quasi-ballistic and cruise missiles which Russia developed for all three domains (land, air, sea) for her armed forces and those are already deployed. The only "response" the United States has at its disposal is to go for quantity of good ol' subsonic iterations of venerable Tomahawk and all kinds of other slow variations of TLAMs such as JASSM or allegedly super-pooper "magical" weapon such as CHAMP. All this is fine and dandy, but the issue for the United States is two fold:

1. She doesn't have hyper-sonic weapons and is years, if not decades, away from fielding a working prototype, forget IOC or fully deployed weapon system. 

2. Unlike Russia, American anti-missile systems are....well...let's recall what Publius Tacitus wrote about that:

A friend of mine who has expertise in these matters wrote me: Any air defense engineer with a security clearance that isn't lying through his teeth will admit that Russia's air defense technology surpassed us in the 1950's and we've never been able to catch up. The systems thy have in place surrounding Moscow make our Patriot 3's look like fucking nerf guns.

S-500 is already in serial production. What's coming next is simply a matter of speculation but it has to be understood that Russia not only is capable to match and then over-match greatly any strike capability of NATO in Europe or in US proper, Russia has means to blunt if not to completely repulse a massive strike of slow subsonic or theater ballistic missiles on her territory.  Numbers should help. 


Putin and his advisers continue to express concern with TLAMs being loaded into the MK-41 cells of Aegis Ashore in Deveselu, Romania, and Redzikowo, Poland. Even the brief glance on the map allows to conclude that Polish site will be primarily a threat to Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia, due to a relatively short flight time of about 15 minutes (140 miles between Redzikowo and Kaliningrad), while missiles launched from Deveselu would have to be airborne for at least 40 minutes, including half of a path over water, to strike Sevastopol. 40 minutes is a very good time to not only have anti-missile complexes completely engaged (well, 15 minutes is also fairly generous) but to have response delivered to European facilities and to launch at North America. Strategically, in military terms, for Russia very little changes in terms of ratio of forces. In fact, as I write non-stop for years, Russia has qualitative edge over the United States in missile technologies for at least a decade, if not more. Russia's protestations, expected as they are, and having in them a very sincere component of traditional Russian aversion towards any kind of hostilities and arms races, are, nevertheless, primarily of the Frank Herbert's Dune Landsraad's tradition of "The Forms Must be Obeyed". 

But, diplomatic and media-PR posturing apart, military balance sheet between Russia and NATO in Europe in case, God forbids, of the serious escalation is very clear. NATO (US that is) has a salvo and has no defense against the response to put it in layman's lingo. NATO can launch at Russia and hope that some of it's salvo, most of it subsonic and fairly easily defended against, will leak through multilayered state-of-the-art anti-missile defense. What comes in response against Europe and US cannot be defended against--US has nothing in its arsenal that can meet and blunt dramatically the salvo of supersonic weapons, against hyper-sonic weapons--zero defenses and this will stay such for a long while in this strategic tic-tac-toe game in Europe. Of course, this is European contingency, there is also a Chinese, of Far East, one, but Russian response will be about the same--new anti-missile complexes and new strike weapons on the Far East. 

Meanwhile, Russia continues to evolve as Eurasian primary military power pole and new massive military exercises Center-2019 are yet another proof of that:

Russia and seven of its allies, including China and India, will send 128,000 soldiers to train in mass anti-terrorism drills next month, the country’s Defense Ministry has announced. The upcoming maneuvers will take place a year after Russia and China staged 300,000-strong anti-missile exercises near the Chinese border. Those exercises, which were Russia's largest war games since the Cold War, took place amid heightened tension between the West and Moscow over NATO’s expansion in eastern Europe.Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that 20,000 pieces of equipment, 600 aircraft and up to 15 warships will be rolled out across eight Russian training grounds for the Tsentr-2019 (Center-2019) exercises in September.

These maneuvers will involve a wide use of Russian Armed Forces' combat internet and all those gizmos and gadgets of what came to be known as Net-centric Warfare. I guess Russia is getting ready to defend subcontinent after Mr. Trump declared that US defeated ISIS and it is now up to...well...read for yourself:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that other countries will need to take up the fight against Islamic State militants, citing Russia, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran as examples.Earlier this year, U.S.-backed forces reclaimed the last remaining territory once held by Islamic State militants in Syria. Since then, however, there has been concern about the militant group gaining new strength in Iraq and Syria."At a certain point Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, they're going to have to fight their battles," Trump told reporters at the White House, later saying India should also get involved."All of these other countries where ISIS is around ... all of these are going to have to fight," he said, adding that the United States did not want to spend "another 19 years" fighting the Afghan war.

Sure. United States wouldn't have spent those 19 years in Afghanistan if it wouldn't have aided those very mujaheddin in 1980s who, together with the remnants of a demolished Iraqi Army and other jihad-minded humanitarians, constituted the core of both Taliban and ISIS. But we all know that hindsight is a 20/20 vision and one has to think now how the new "arms race" initiated by the United States will be viewed in the hindsight twenty or so years down the road, granted we all survive Mr. Trump's lack of negotiating skills, including skills in recognizing that he surrounded himself with militarily incompetent neocon fanatics and Israeli-firsters who, together with Wall Street Neo-liberal economic fundamentalists, are behind America's demise in military, economic and geopolitical senses. One may add a mental one, too.