Showing posts with label Kursk Battle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kursk Battle. Show all posts

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Yes, We Know ...

 ... it takes "5 hours for Russian tanks to be in Kiev", per Mr.Trump. Obviously, Donnie has a very peculiar relations with geography and with the movement of armor columns on march, but here is what's wrong with his "beautiful" assessment. For starters--here is a theoretical and shortest distance from Sumy to Kiev at which Russians theoretically can "march".

As you can see from the map "as crow flies" distance is around 300 kilometers, if to imagine that Russians attended DJT school of advanced military studies and want to cover this distance on tracks (and wheels) alone--doable, but kills motor resource of the hardware--the speed of the armor column of such nature could be, and that is a good result, on average about 25-30 kilometers per hour. So, if we take 300 kilometers and divide it by 30, we get around 10 hours. But that is theory. 

If DJT wants to have an idea (of course he doesn't, he knows it all) what does it mean to move motor rifle battalion on march, here is a good primer from ... Soviet Defense Ministry on how to plan (battalion is the first tactical unit which actually has own staff) and move in column. It is in Russian, but a lot of it is understood in terms of CO Decision, planning and shit like that. Simple stuff, no math is needed for DJT. 


This is BEFORE the battalion does anything with piu piu and other exciting shit. A model of moving a whole damn tank army when need be--is a 320 kilometer march (in one day this formation of 951 tanks and self-propelled guns managed to cover more than 100 km) of Pavel Rotmistrov's 5th Tank Army which engaged Hausser's panzer Corps literally on the go. Rotmistrov's army lost almost a third of its tanks during this march. Pay attention to this chapter of Hausser's life--a reason why the US Army has no idea about the war on the Eastern Front and strongly believes that it won WW II. 

Following the war, Hausser participated in the work of the U.S. Army Historical Division, where under the guidance of Franz Halder, German generals wrote World War II operational studies for the U.S. Army, first as POWs and then as employees. 

But I digress. So, you get the idea about what it would be to move an army size formation to Kiev. Granted Russians want to take the city of almost 3 million, which they don't--only American generals who listened to Wehrmacht and SS generals fairy tales would believe that Russians want Kiev. But I am on record--operational planning? Nah, they don't know what this is. 

Meanwhile, the warm up at the front is ongoing today--Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk axes. 


More from today;


You see, Russians made a slight and very pleasant mistake, they slightly OVERestimated the staying power of the VSU and broke through faster than anticipated. Hey, not bad. What you see on the maps is called putting the enemy on the split and this exhausting pattern will continue until the order is given. What this order will be, we just have to wait and see. Tomorrow Donnie will be trying to "scare" Putin, LOL)) Donnie, get real military professionals into your Cabinet, albeit it is too late now. 

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

They Wanted Kursk Battle.

They've got it. This is for those who get lost in scales and proportions--a reminder. This all has been happening at the small wedge of the Kursk Oblast initially about 400 sq.km (roughly 154 square miles). This is roughly the area half that of the area of NYC. "Brilliant" NATO planners, especially British, who for some reason consider themselves masters in whatever (primarily chicken shit), pumped into this wedge this "thing", which today doesn't exist anymore. Latest from Russian MoD. 

So, NATO losers decided to kill a whole combined arms army (or roughly the whole of British Army by comparison) of Ukrainian and NATO "advisers" cannon fodder and ... they succeeded, Russians took care of it. Here are the numbers. By the time all disjoined (fractured) groups of shell-shocked, panicked and demoralized wandering remnants of VSU will be completely mopped up, the personnel losses may reach 70, 000. But what's more--the thing which Western militaries simply block out, because it really hurts their feelings--these are kill ratios. While Russian forces did sustain losses, the kill ratio in Kursk is not even an average of 1 to 10-12, it is somewhere on the order of 1 to 15-20. It is a slaughter of the elite, most fanatical and the best trained troops NATO could provide (average VSU "elite" combatant is better than any combatant from the NATO armies, the US Army included). They are not there anymore. 

They also excelled at executing their own who didn't want to die under Russian fire. The body of evidence of atrocities not only against own, but Russian POWs and civilians is overwhelming. NATO militaries are forever stained as good only at killing defenseless. This is the end of any kind of "high" (from pot?) moral ground the US Army ("the force for good" like providing ISR for Nazi regime in Kiev and manning its long-range fires against civilians) tries to pretend it occupies--it doesn't. Vladimir Putin was clear--treat ALL of the VSU who committed atrocities as terrorists. Guess what, NATO "advisers" will not have the protection of Geneva, plus--being a de Facto barrier troops (that's where NATO excels too) shooting into the backs of retreating hapless VSU is a war crime and atrocity. So, let's wait and see what Mr. Witkoff tells his counterparts in Moscow this week ... 

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Leaning On London...

 ... new details begin to emerge from this FUBAR by NATO in Kursk. But before we go there--here is the phenomenon of being grossly overrated. Mind you, this is not me writing this, these are American historians. 

LAURENCE REES: And who’s the most overrated person?

GEOFFREY WAWRO: From World War Two? I could add someone who really made their name in World War Two, obviously Charles De Gaulle. ....

LAURENCE REES: Someone who actually did well out of it, but actually there’s a PR spin to it, so didn't entirely deserve their reputation.

GEOFFREY WAWRO: Well, an obvious example would be someone like General George Patton on the American side because there’s been so many books about him and the movie starring George C. Scott about Patton. So he’s become an iconic figure and very much attached to everything Americans think about the Second World War. But there’s a very dark side to Patton, the casualties that he was willing to take. He is pitiless about American casualties. After the liberation of Paris when they’re moving on to attack Germany, and he attacked Metz, he took part in a frontal attack against entrenched German troops and tanks behind a river barrier and took awful casualties, and this was something that Patton was willing to do in order to keep the momentum moving forward but also to assure his own fame. So I think there’s work that needs to be done on Patton. He was energetic, aggressive, a great American hero, he didn’t lack bravery and I don’t think he was doing this to sort of pass the burden onto his troops, he would welcome the burden himself. But there was something about his Generalship that was a little bit crude for the 20th Century.

LAURENCE REES: Yes, and that’s something that people aren’t aware of, necessarily.

GEOFFREY WAWRO: Right. 
Well, Patton wasn't called a "master of chickenshit" by GIs for nothing. But if you want to see true masters of chicken shit, go no further than London and British military's "General Staff" aka officially the org headed by the Chief of Defense Staff (Radakin guy). These guys still venerate their Waterloo, which in the end didn't change much, but they continue to reside in their bubble thinking that they have a great military record in combined arms operations. They don't, not even close. In the end, it was US Army, namely Hodges' 1st Army and especially its heroic 2nd and 99th divisions which took the brunt of Wehrmacht's last gamble in Ardennes in 1944. They are, in other words, overrated beyond belief, in fact--utterly grotesquely. But why, you may ask, I concentrate on them? Very simple--the hint which flashed briefly through London Times and few other UK tabloids via piece with a symptomatic title Britain’s Kursk Invasion Backfires?
And you know what? This time Washington may be telling the truth, at least partially. This debacle in Kursk had London written all over it, as also was confirmed by Colonel Maduro, I mean Alexey Leonkov (in Russian). 
So, IT IS, or rather, WAS London's "operation" and it bore all hallmarks of British military "thought"--amateurism, ignorance, delusions of grandeur and lack of any experience in modern warfare. They also do not study military history and warfare in Sandhurst, Joint Services Command and Staff College or in RUSI and Chatham House. The idea that the staff of the army with zero serious military record, pathetic armor and air force, and having the actual combat ready force the size of the Northern Stand of the Elland Road Stadium (FC Leeds) is beyond preposterous. It is pathetic. 
 
I am a consistent critic of Washington for both foreign and domestic issues, seeing as once beautiful country (the US) is being run into the ground, but the US is a superpower still, however declining! UK is not even in the same universe, especially fighting Russia whose military record dwarfs that of the US. If not for the Falklands and Reagan's warning to Argentinians that the US will remove barriers to the use of nukes, UK literally has no record whatsoever other than doing false flags, killing civilians, kidnapping them and other shit for which UK military brass sticks more funny letters to their already bloated prefixes for their titles. The only title they don't have is a force capable of serious operational planning especially against the guys who demolished time after time the best forces combined West could muster. And so, as more information becomes available, they thought they could achieve their insane "objectives" using the best cannon fodder 404 could field. This, plus their SAS and other "advisers" running the show. Boys, go back to school... It was primarily Russia's Border Guards and some hodge-podge units which met them on the 6th and whole "plan" went bye-bye. After that the whole Russian routine unfolded:
Here is one of the flags of this vaunted and trained by British 82nd Brigade of VSU. Now Russians are mopping up this creme de la creme from Kursk area. How many Anglo DRGs are now rotting in Kursk forests will know in due time. But here is the deal--they better wake up in London to a reality of being amateurs compared to the Army which shifted the paradigm in warfare and has capabilities which do not even come in the wet dreams to KCB, ADC, WTF, CNN Sir Tony Radakin nor to anyone in RUSI, because they never heard of those things. As to fighting Russians in Kursk--they better ask spirits of Erich Von Manstein, Walter Model or Hermann Hoth--they'll tell.  
 
For those listening to Leonkov with translation--pay attention to how many times he calls out those pseudo-patriotic media in Russia most of which are "manned" by open and shadow VSU/GUR assets such as Podolyaka, Rybar, Military Informant, Colonel Cassad and others, including in Anglo-sphere many of who you know, and keep in mind that out of all physical advantages listed in the Field Manual 3-0 the US has none left. The only nominal advantage is in "information" but even this doesn't work on the land which saw the death of Nazi panzers. Thinking that some amateurs who are headed by a lawyer (yes, Radakin is a lawyer) can stand on this ground is laughable. Why don't London take MacArthur's advice and just fucking fade away from the arena of big boys.

Friday, August 23, 2024

To Those Who Forgot...

 ... today is the anniversary of the conclusion of the Kursk Battle. I underscore again German numbers on any operation and losses are primarily fiction as is most what is written in the West (that is to say written by Wehrmacht losers). So...


 

The map is up to the August 1st, but the battle concluded on August 23 through conclusion of Orlov Strategic Offensive (Operation Kutuzov) and Belgorod-Kharkov Strategic Offensive (Operation Rumyantsev). This is Moscow State University summary, based on actual Red Army and Wehrmacht archives, not sore losers fairy tales by Wehrmacht generals:
The Battle of Kursk, which involved the largest tank battle of the Second World War, was fought on the steppe of Kursk oblast between July 5 and August 23, 1943. It was initiated by the Germans who, in retreat after their spectacular defeat in the Battle of Stalingrad, concentrated 50 divisions, two tank brigades, three tank battalions, and eight artillery assault divisions comprising 2,700 Tiger and Panther tanks, some two thousand aircraft, and 900,000 men in all. The Soviet forces, consisting of General K. K. Rokossovskii’s Army of the Center, General N. F. Vatutin’s Voronezh Army, and the reserve army of the Steppe Front under General I. S. Konev, numbered 1.3 million troops, 3,600 tanks, and 2,800 aircraft. The German offensive, code named “Citadel,” involved two simultaneous thrusts against the Soviet-held northern and southern salients. Both were successfully repulsed, and by July 12, the Soviet forces had gone over to the offensive. On August 4, the city of Orel was liberated and by the 18th the German army took up defensive positions east of Bryansk. It had lost 30 of its 50 divisions and up to 500,000 men killed, wounded or missing in action. From its victory in the Battle of Kursk, the Soviet Red Army went on to liberate most of Ukraine in the autumn of 1943, marching into Kiev on November 6. Although Western historiography traditionally marks the beginning of the German downfall to the D-Day invasion of Normandy, the crushing defeat of Kursk makes a more likely turning point for the war.

It was a cataclysmic event, which ended Blitzkrieg once and for all. It also dwarfs any operation by Allies in its scale, scope and ferocity, also being the largest armor clash in history and precisely because of that it is being rewritten in the West non-stop for sheer propaganda purposes. I will be talking about it tomorrow and why they are so desperate to rewrite history. For now the link to Ira Alksnis spot on description of the main reasons (in Russian).   

Meanwhile:


NATO (let's call it what it is) decided to play diversionary-recon group (DRG) with Russian Army at the border of Belgorod Oblast. Here is how it all ends for them.

Friday, July 28, 2023

No, It Doesn't Fear...

... M1 Abrams "being captured". It fears it being paraded the same way German Leopards have been paraded--destroyed. 

Russians promised to display defeated NATO weapons in fronts of embassies of NATO countries in Moscow. So, I am sure seeing burned Abrams in a front of US Embassy in Moscow would be a humiliation the US doesn't want to face. But, at this stage one has to ask the question--where did the US get the idea of being a premier armor warfare power? From defeating inept Middle Eastern armies? I know there are many fans of IDF armor warfare and technological masturbation to Merkavas which lasted exactly till they faced off with Kornets at Litany. 

Plus, there is this teeny-weeny issue which is not counted--there is also a huge bounty for NATO weapons and it is paid by a number of Russian very rich patriots, such as Grigory Leps and they did pay out already. I don't know what current rate is, but I am sure there will be many takers. Especially considering Russian history with this type of the warfare. 

At this time I am not even sure that those people in the US heard of that:

Do they even have a grasp of the scale? I doubt it. In related news, Challengers are avoiding appearing on the front-lines of SMO. Evidently they have "issues", wink, wink;))  

Just a refresher how it usually looks like:

I thought I will just put it here for people to keep in mind that no US servicemen knows what is it to defend his family and home. Russians did it for 1, 200 years. In the end, Russians created this monster:
 
Which would simply blow up any Wehrmacht tank to smithereens with its 122-mm gun. Today, choices are so much wider across all domains. It is like a candy store for those hellbent on destruction. So, I just wanted to remind you about this.

Friday, July 7, 2023

Why It Might Be Over...

... sooner than we think. My friend Marat Khairullin gave yesterday a superb sitrep (sadly only in Russian): 

He describes in detail a sorry state of VSU, which is corroborated by other reliable sources, but goes further and describes occasions on which frontline VSU units have been actually... cooperating with Russian Army. The statistics of even regiment-brigade level sniper groups (number of those groups varies, but it is more than a few) is altogether terrifying since it is pretty normal for one of each such groups to kill between 20 to 30 VSU personnel in a single night. That gives a good perspective on a scale of VSU losses and also confirms my constant point that Russian MoD is very conservative in stating VSU losses. 

But even these "conservative" estimates are terrifying. Here is butcher's bill for today from Russian MoD. 

In 7 days--almost 5,000 KIAs. No wonder then that it is reported now that many VSU soldiers simply refuse to attack and prefer to sit in trenches without moving--totally understandable. Which brings us to Larry's excellent piece yesterday, which I also discuss today in my new video which will be up shortly. 

Although the video is a lame attempt at humor, the narrative/meme is not a joke. Many younger officers genuinely believe that we have Russia over a barrel and can take out Putin at will. It is one thing for the average guy or gal on the street to believe such nonsense, but it is terrifying to learn that many U.S. military officers, both junior and senior (including Flag Officers, i.e. Generals), are so deluded.

This is not surprising at all--average modern US Army company level officer, especially "taught" military history on the examples of Patton's "exploits" and the "yardstick" of turkey shoot in the Gulf, wouldn't take seriously nowadays the history of Operation Zitadel (started on July 5, 1943) 80 years ago and the scale of events US Army simply has no experience of dealing with. Yes, July 5-July 12, 1943--Zitadelle, after that--Kursk Offensive Operation. 


This scale is beyond the experiences of the US Armed Forces, as is Stalingrad, Operation Bagration, Liberation of Balkans and many other things and they simply cannot take it. And so is SMO. Only one American historian of note--David Eisenhower, the grandson--had enough courage to point to the 800 pound gorilla in the room which was and remains a professional envy. Considering the fact that America's resurgence and superpowerdom originated in WW II, acknowledging military and geopolitical realities of the last 85 years on a political level in the US would mean undermining America's mythology not just militarily, but on a national level and would represent in itself a Koschei The Immortal proverbial tip of a needle, which, when broken, kills him. But it merely reinforces my position for many years, decades really, that the US never realized itself as true continental power because this realization comes only through continental warfare of scale. One simply cannot buy itself a military history no matter how one tries. 

Thursday, August 4, 2022

Where, Let Me Ask, Where...

... do they take their numbers from? It is no wonder that US and UK run VSU "operations" are not only defeated, but expose a complete professional inadequacy of US and UK military operational planning. It is bad and unprofessional which calls in question military professionalism of those who "plan" them. Evidently, issues of awareness and knowing "thy enemy" are not taught in Anglo-American military educational facilities anymore. No wonder. Daniel Davies writes a fantastical piece in which he concludes:

Virtually the only way Ukraine could succeed in an offensive against Russia in Kherson region at this time would be if they pulled a page out of the Soviet playbook from July 1943. In the Battle of Kursk, for example, the USSR was willing to throw over two million men into the meat grinder against the German Wehrmaht in a massive tank battle. The Soviet Union sacrificed 800,000 troops lost, but inflicted upwards of 200,000 casualties on the Germans in the process. But the Red Army had more men than the Germans and Hitler’s troops were never able to recover from the loss of so many men and tanks, but especially they never replaced the experienced troops. From that point on, the Soviet army drove Germany all the way back to Berlin.  Unless Ukraine is willing to sacrifice upwards of a million men – something the Russians may not be able to match, regardless of how many planes, tanks, and rockets they have – Zelensky’s forces have no valid shot at driving Russia out of Kherson. 

I am not going to talk here about absolutely bizarre "interpretation" of Red Army's Kursk Strategic Defensive Operation July 5-23, 1943, how it was known in USSR and was in response to Wehrmacht's Operation Zitadelle (Citadel) and which saw human, armor and air carnage of unimaginable proportions, which resulted in final strategic shift of the WW II in Europe after which the Blitzkrieg met its match. But the issue, apart from Davies' obvious sheer fantasy about Kherson, is the fact of this, I quote it again:

In the Battle of Kursk, for example, the USSR was willing to throw over two million men into the meat grinder against the German Wehrmaht in a massive tank battle. The Soviet Union sacrificed 800,000 troops lost, but inflicted upwards of 200,000 casualties on the Germans in the process.  

Davies references the US History Channel, evidently not understanding, that most of the Anglo-American WW II historiography of the Eastern Front is based on... right, German sources, much of which are self-serving in trying to "explain" how, after what amounts in German "sources" of Eastern Front, Red Army was losing 1,000 soldiers for 10 of Wehrmacht's, of 100 combat aircraft for 1 lost Luftwaffe fighter, or 100 T-34s for 2 or 3 Tigers, those incompetent Russkies, somehow crushed unified forces of Europe, from Finland to Germany, to Italy, to Hungary, Romania and other armies and somehow, obviously because of "bloody Stalin" ended up in Berlin and hoisted the Red Flag over Reichstag in May of 1945. 

Well, we will start with this, and this is old, from 1996 by Glantz, who later, together with House elevated even more the Wehrmacht's "historical" perceptions' influences on the American view of the Eastern Front:

But let's address the issue of Red Army's "sacrificed 800,000 troops". We will open the most authoritative source of Red Army's losses and this is, of course, Krivosheev's publications meticulously derived from all available Russian Defense Ministry WW II archives. Let's take a look at the "spread" so to speak of Kursk Strategic Defensive Operation, which could be counted as "Counter-Citadel." Here is the table from Krivosheev's 2001 Rossiya i SSSR v voynah XX veka: poteri vooruzhyonnyh sil. Statisticheskoe issledovanie (in Russian). Moscow: OLMA-Press. ISBN 5-224-01515-4.

As you can see yourself, at Kursk Red Army had total 1,272,700 personnel on three Army Groups (Fronts) at the front with a width of 500 kilometers and with retreat of Red Army forces upon defensive operation between 12 to 35 kilometers. Total "non-returnable" (KIA and MIA) losses in 19 day of this operation amounted to 70,330. Sanitary losses amounted to 177, 784, which in summary gives us 177, 847 total Red Army losses at Kursk. OK, but one may ask, but what if, what if History Channel also counted Red Army's losses in the immediate follow-up, in fact overlapping with Kursk Strategic Defensive Operation, Orlov Strategic Offensive Operation "Kuuzov", which lasted from July 12 through August 18 of 1943? OK. It is not exactly Kursk Battle but let's take a look:
As you can see yourself Red Army sustained 112, 529 KIAS and MIAs, Sanitary--317,361 and total of 429,890. But even if sum those TOTAL losses we still get 607, 737 for all duration of the Kursk Battle from Jule 5 through August 18. Of course, we need to add Belgorod Strategic Operation (Operation "Rumyantsev") which lasted August 3 through 23 and then arithmetically we may get somewhere around 800,000, but, pardon my French, where did they find 2 million men, when in reality the number of Red Army combat troops never exceeded at the peak 1.4 million. But while we get very accurate numbers of Red Army's losses and forces, once we get to Wehrmacht, we get thrown immediately into the German military casuistic approach to "statistics" and, often, down right "estimates" (a euphemism for falsifications) which are the ones which continue to dominate American views. 
 
Davies states that Wehrmacht sustained 200,000 casualties at Kursk Battle. Hm, we need to start from the start because at Kursk Red Army fielded in reality (per Glantz, House and declassified Soviet General Staff documents), get this: Red Army total: 1,337,166 of which combat troops were 977,219. Wehrmacht, combat troops: 777,000. As you can see yourself the ratio is not what Western historiography really mentions, preferring to use German numbers, much of which tend to minimize own losses and grossly inflate losses of the Red Army and these numbers migrate constantly into Anglo-American historiography and are utterly unreliable from purely military point of view, unless one wants, indeed, to subscribe to a view that average Wehrmacht soldier was killing before being killed himself 5-6 Red Army soldiers. But here is the trick, if one considers inevitably higher losses of attacking side during offensive, we DO have a reliable number of specifically Wehrmacht's (minus Axis allies) losses in the period of time which covers precisely both Stalingrad and Kursk Battles. Namely from 1 September 1942 through 20 November 1943 Wehrmacht's total of non-returnable (KIAs, MIAs and disabled) on the Eastern Front amounted to 90% of all casualties in that period: 2,077,000 x 0.9 =1,870,000. It amounted to permanent (irrevocable) losses of Wehrmacht alone on the Eastern Front to 6,923,700. And we use here Earl Ziemke's numbers.
 
In fact, 200,000 Wehrmacht's "losses" in Kursk Battle is utter fiction. Real number of Wehrmacht's irrevocable losses is around 430,000 per Military-Historical Journal («Военно-исторический журнал», 1960, № 5, стр. 86—87) which explains WHY Kursk Battle, together with Stalingrad, were decisive in destroying Axis forces strategic offensive poyential on the Eastern Front and lead to a turning point in WW II. It is not just some statistical trick, it is tactical and operational military reality corresponding to numbers, or, vice-versa, if one wishes. But it inevitably raises the question: if one draws strategic and operational picture based on Nazi "statistics" and beaten to death cliches about Red Army, it is INEVITABLE that such versions of "military science" and operational art are bound to produce time after time, both gross overestimation of own capabilities and gross underestimation of such of the enemy. Patton's Syndrome. We saw it in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and we observe it live in Ukraine with NATO C2 parading itself as a bunch of amateurs. 
 
Listen to excellent discussion by Alex and Alexander. 

They speak precisely about this issue, with such military planners who are behind VSU, no wonder the US cannot win any war in the last... well, fill in the blanks yourself.  One cannot learn anything when one's lessons are primarily made of fantasies. It is a good advice to get one's facts straight before expressing historical views such as Daniel Davies did about Kursk Battle. But then again, in the world where Wehrmacht sustains 200,000 casualties in total in one of the most decisive historic victories of the Red Army, it is also normal for said Red Army to "rape" 2.5 million German women and Russian Army "run out of ammo and smart weapons"... three months ago. 

P.S. See about fake Wehrmacht "statistics" in VPK-Kurier written by professional (in Russian). The Price of Kursk Battle (Part II). A methodical military-scientific demolition of BS from Wehrmacht's cooked books, including their Anglo-American sycophants who created a caricature from the war.

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Speaking of Harpoons.

Konashenkov today confirmed that several "launchers" of Harpoons have been annihilated by Russian Armed Forces, namely by OTRK Iskander (in Russian). They have been destroyed in Berezan of Odessa Oblast. Here is this Berezan town. 

Berezan is located in about five miles from the shore of the Black Sea and it is totally natural for Ukies to move their equipment constantly but it goes without saying that anti-shipping missiles such as Harpoon should be located for launch within reasonable distance from water to "squeeze" as much as possible from their range which is rather very limited--220 kilometers for air launched (AGM-84) Harpoons. Those who watched my video yesterday, with my second comment on the wet dreams of Philip Breedlove, I posted there this illustration of the range to which any Harpoon carrier should get to have a chance at launching at Crimean Bridge). In Russian this is called рубеж пуска (launch line or range) and as you can see--it is not easy to put it mildly. 
All of this space is totally within Russian or Russia-controlled territory and waters and that leaves pre-positioning areas for those Harpoon launchers naturally within this search area: 

So, we are looking at approximately (and high probability density distribution) 160 x 50 = 8,000 sq. miles area to be searched. It is fairly large but with a number of space-based and signit assets Russia has it is totally possible. That fate also befell many of the US weapons shipped to Ukraine and we are now in the full blown ISR warfare between Russia and the US. US is losing and Russia openly warned about knowledge of US personnel's location both at the front lines and in C2 centers. Wiping them out with high-precision weapons is not difficult. As some of the personnel of LDNR militias says, they know when they face US and UK groups, and I quote, "because they fight better than current VSU and they know how to maneuver, but it is not going to help them." This is from the report by Alexander Kotz. 

As I already stated not for once: Pentagon and CIA planners of VSU "offensive" which was to start in early March and was forestalled by Russia launching SMO on 24 February, have miscalculated, again. It is one thing to plan operations against Taliban or Saddam's Army, totally another to plan something against Russian Armed Forces and especially based on ignorance of Russia's military-industrial capability. As I already quoted my good media buddy Colonel Trukhan:"They (Pentagon) are not going to out-think us". Rings especially true on the anniversary of a cataclysmic clash of Soviet and Wehrmacht's armor at Prokhorovka during Kursk Battle in July of 1943. 

Anyone among those "planners" even bothered to look at the scale and scope of that battle? While one may legitimately challenge History's Channel's numbers, traditionally under-reported for German side, the forces that clashed at Kursk were (per Glantz and House, page 217) 1,337,166 (among them 977,219 combat troops) for the Red Army and 777,000 for Wehrmacht, Red Army tanks: 3,400. Wehrmacht: 2,451. Artillery for the Red Army: 19,794, Wehrmacht: 8,170. Combat aircraft for Red AF: 2,650, Luftwaffe: 2,500. This mass of troops and equipment clashed on July 5 and it all resulted on July 12, 1943 in a cataclysmic event at Prokhorovka. So, the question is: what strategic and operational experience US and UK planners have to face in a form of Russia's General Staff? Right. The answer is obvious. And that is the primer for today.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Why Michael Peck Is Not A Military Historian.

He surely portrays himself, and I quote from his biography, as:
I'm a defense writer, avid gamer and history buff. I'm currently a contributing editor for Foreign Policy Magazine, a writer for the War is Boring defense blog and of course a contributor at Forbes. My work has also appeared in the Washingon Post,Slate, Defense News, USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer and other fine publications. I'm a contrarian, an iconoclast, and I know that not everyone will agree with me. That means I must be doing something right. 
He holds some degree, in what else--Political Science--and that is about the extent to which his actual competencies stretch.  Obviously, if being a "contrarian" and "history buff" are qualities required for speaking out on some serious military issues, then, as I pointed out not for once in this blog--there should be no surprise with US "achievements" in geopolitical and military spheres. This is not to mention that someone who thinks WaPo or Slate to be "fine publications" has to really create an immediate alertness to a possible BS. And BS Mr. Peck produced aplenty in his, yet another, ignorant piece titled:

Why the Battle of Kursk Might Just Be the Most Misunderstood World War II Battle

And here is the issue immediately--there is nothing misunderstood about that Battle. It was studied in so much detail by now that no amount of Peck's BS can obfuscate the fact of him lacking even remote knowledge of the basic facts. Of course, he covers his BS with this:

Pointing this out takes nothing away from the bravery and skill of the Red Army, any more that it disparages the Western Allies to point out that the Soviets fought and destroyed the bulk of the German army. But today, as America and Russia confront one another, it is worth remembering there was a time when both nations cooperated to save the world from a new Dark Ages.

It is a load of patronizing BS not because it takes anything away from the Red Army, which Peck does exactly(I'll show it below)  but because, most likely, he knows it. If he doesn't--then he should stick to writing for Papua-New Guinea's (nothing personal per se against this fine country) publications. Here is a first "bomb":

On July 10, Anglo-American troops landed on the beaches of Sicily. Two days later Hitler informed his generals that he was canceling the offensive and transferring the SS Panzer divisions to Italy, to repel any Allied landings on the Italian peninsula.

Obviously it is a complete crap since WW II has NO recorded facts of transfer of SS or Wehrmacht combat units from the Eastern Front to the Western one, the other direction? All the time. But here is what really happened:

Western historiography would continue to quote in unison Mainstein's assertion that allied Operation Husky, as Sicily landing was known, would force Hitler to shift some of his crack divisions from Kursk area to Italy. What was omitted, of course, was the fact that the only division which actually made it to Italy, completely without its heavy equipment which was transferred to Das Reich and Totenkopf SS Panzer Divisions, was Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler Division. Both Das Reich and Totenkopf were never transferred to Italy and were redeployed to the so called Mius-Front, which was a heavily fortified German defensive line along the river Mius in Southern Russia. There they would face another Red Army offensive. Moreover, Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler Division was deployed to and then remained stationed in Northern Italy mostly for garrison and punitive functions, which could hardly be called combat tasks. This Division would find its end on the Eastern Front, with some remnants of once crack unit surrendering to the US Army in the West.

Damn facts!! Oh am I being a "contrarian" or an "iconoclast"? The offensive was stopped because a Husky? Dir Mr. Contrarian even take a look at what Mius-front was, or what was transpiring there and why those 2 crack SS Divisions were sent namely there? Then, of course, our "iconoclast" comes up with another trivia.

Military theory holds that the attacker should outnumber the defender three-to-one, and that fighting through dense fortifications will render an attack ever more costly

Well, military "theory" holds that one calculates a required force and "designs" its structure often with the use of serious staffs and long and tedious calculations and "modelling" which was done even in WW II times and in reality was about same ol', same ol' ability to mass (concentrate) its forces on a key axes. Obviously Mr. Peck never learned that at proverbial Schwerpunkts the ratio of forces could reach sometimes 20 to 1 but here we are getting ahead ourselves and getting into serious operational issues which even for WW II could be fitted into C3ISR. But the real wowser from Peck comes here:

7. Kursk was an Anglo-American victory as well as a Soviet one:
Just as the SS Panzers were about to achieve a decisive breakthrough -- or so Von Manstein claimed -- an Anglo-American amphibious force landed on Sicily. Hitler called off Operation Citadel and transferred the SS Panzer divisions to Italy. The timing was coincidental. The Anglo-Americans didn't land on Sicily to support the Soviets at Kursk, nor could they have mounted a large amphibious invasion on such short notice. But the practical effect was to draw German troops from the Eastern Front at a critical time.

You see, friends, what was a real contribution of the US 7th Army of 66,000 men lead by Patton or Montgomery's 115,000 men facing about 60,000 German troops in Sicily, most of them later successfully evacuated, to a titanic struggle on the Eastern Front is difficult to comprehend. Of course, those crack SS divisions factually never fought Allies in Italy, but that, as you can see, doesn't bother Mr. Peck in the least. In this case, I agree with Peck's assertion--Battle of Kursk is the most misunderstood battle by Michael Peck. In fact, I have reasons to suspect that he knows shit about it, as well as about Eastern Front, as well as about WW II in general.  Highlighted in yellow is a completely contrived, counter-factual BS. I guess that is what one gets when one becomes a military history "buff", or maybe it is a buffoon?