The US Abrogated INF ...

... due to the loss of military expertise and due to the alternative universe it lives in when it comes to Russia. 

Moscow believes that conditions for maintaining the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the US have “disappeared” and “no longer considers itself bound” by it, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. The INF Treaty, which banned ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500–5,500km, collapsed in 2019 when Washington withdrew, citing Russian violations. Moscow has denied the claims, accusing the US itself of developing banned missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the collapse of the INF will significantly erode the global security framework. “The Russian Foreign Ministry notes the disappearance of conditions for maintaining the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar weapons and is authorized to state that Russia no longer considers itself bound by the corresponding self-imposed restrictions previously adopted,” the statement reads.

The US didn't recognize that warfare changed dramatically and incompetence and arrogance didn't allow Washington to understand that it lost the arms race. Now, the only thing the US has in this respect is the so called Typhoon--MK41 VLS stuck on the wheeled truck and loaded with same ol' TLAMs. And the hope of making LRHW to become an actual weapon, not media fodder. 

Slow (subsonic) TLAMs look like a clunky VW from 1960 trying to race Formula-1 from 2025. The arsenal of intermediate range weapons Russia already has is monstrous, from newest extended range Iskanders (1,000 + km) to Oreshnik, to Zircons, to 3M14M (4,500 km range) to other systems getting ready for deployment--it is a mismatch, especially when one factors monstrous Russian Air Defense, of a historical proportions. This is the end of West's domination and everything what is happening today is just an attempt to shape a narrative to use as a fig leaf trying to obscure a defeat of the West amidst of the conclusive salvos of the WW II. Yes, WW II. 

In related news, the accumulation of VSU forces is reported near the border of Bryansk Oblast--they may try to repeat "Kursk" and kill those 50,000 they accumulate there. They have no other option. Or rather, here is one of their options:

How's that "maneuvering" going which they think they can do as prescribed in FM 3-0, how about those long range fires. We all know the answer. 

I Mentioned It Once...

 ... I will repeat again, when Russians invoke God, that means shit got really serious--those opposing better run. That means it is metaphysical and the latest recruitment video by Russian MoD is a clear challenge to the West's satanism on display in Paris recently.  

It is a famous Russian quote from Alexander Suvorov (which in itself has roots in Europe) during his crossing of Alps in 1799: "We are Russians, God is with us". So, here we are--a universal language understood by most of humanity and an open acknowledgement of the metaphysical fight against the West. So, it is very indicative of the present situation the world is in. 

In related news, yet another boy from MGIMO makes a conclusion on INF issue while having about zero competencies. While correctly chastising Trump for quitting INF Treaty he arrives to the conclusion which is typical for people of his background: 

Eventually, the consequences of US missile deployments will depend on whether the military or the symbolic aspect comes to the forefront. If the US limits itself to deploying a small number to symbolize its “boots on the ground”, there is a chance of preventing the new arms race at an early stage. However, if hundreds of missiles will be deployed in order to ensure Washington’s total operational dominance, there is a risk of an unprecedented escalation – which, of course, it would be best to avoid.

I have news for him and his "research" fellows from the same club of nincompoops who infest all kinds of "think-tanks":

1. He evidently doesn't understand what "operational", let alone "operational dominance" are. It is expected from people with no particular education and whiteboard professional "experiences" which preclude them from grasping military balance and warfare of the XXI century;

2. That is why this Chekov guy didn't get the message that far from being able to deploy "hundreds" of missiles, the only tool the US has in Europe is to place there the "Typhoon" thingy which is truck based good ol' MK-41 VLS for... good ol' and nearing obsolescence TLAMs, BGM-109 Tomahawks, you know. Ah yes, and this LRHW which the US doesn't have and will not have for some time. 

Chekov, obviously doesn't understand that the US is not even in the same league in terms of RUK/ROK with Russia, not to mention a dramatic mitigating factor of Russia's Air and Anti-missile Defense. But serious military and engineering incompetence is expected from these guys. They could sell their BS as "expertise" in the XX century, today--it is packaging "political science" BS into "product" and passing it as "analysis", which it is not. And I don't even mention here the fact that Russia outproduces COMBINED West in terms of stand off weapons by a colossal margin and those weapons are truly monsters whose combat-proven capabilities are simply beyond the reach of the combined West. Well, I will repeat again--ANY serious modern geopolitical analysis requires today a very serious military or intelligence background, and even those are not guarantee against being stupid. The faster these "researchers" with degrees in International Relations, Journalism or Political "Science" get the message--the better it will be for the overall mood of the public being bombarded with their incompetent BS. As per most, not all, of Russian "Americanists"--they are academic failures precisely because they don't have the grasp of foundational principle of geopolitics--balance of power, which is a first derivative of military-industrial capability of the nation. 

As Schumpeter warned about it in 1943:

All those who are unemployed or unsatisfactorily employed or unemployable drift into the vocations in which standards are least definite or in which aptitudes and acquirements of a different order count. They swell the host of intellectuals in the strict sense of the term whose numbers hence increase disproportionately.  

Mr. Chekov should read this classic work. It may help him in understanding his own lack of qualifications for passing judgement on anything military or applied geopolitics related. Those require a much higher levels of education and intellect.

Yep, That's About Right...

Larry nails it. 

Trump (and his cabinet) are definitely culpable in what is going on today. The guy couldn't get a decent cabinet in two years, and when he appointed Bolton as NSA--forget it, it was over. Trump, most likely, is going to win elections. You think anything will change? No. It is going to be same ol', same ol', but wrapped into different rhetoric. Medvedev nailed it four days ago--the US is facing the defeat it could never have conceived. Consuming own fairy tales about "defeating Hitler" or "winning the Cold War" will do it to you. Now, the reckoning has come. What are you going to do? Go nuclear? Good luck with that...

You Get Gorbachev Only Once a Century.

Or even millennium. Cowardly, very narrow-minded and hollow. He is, certainly, one of the most outstanding dumbfvcks in history who managed to destroy his country, granted it needed some changes, and who became an embodiment of human incompetence. Despite leading Soviet scientists and military people telling him that Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars) was mostly smoke and mirrors, Gorbachev and his cabal of "reformers" decided that they can use SDI as one of the excuses for entering negotiations with the United States on matters of Strategic Arms Limitations, Anti-Missile Defense and humiliating and grossly disadvantageous for USSR INF Treaty which was presented by Gorbachev as an "achievement", when in reality it was nothing more than surrendering already emerging decisive Soviet advantage across the whole spectrum of weapon systems. The problem, of course, was the fact that Gorbachev being a door mat for his late wife and being a stubborn village jackass, wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola, nor could recognize, despite multiple warnings, that he was played as a preschooler by the West.  

Gorbachev was dealing with cartoons and a lot of speeches ABOUT SDI, while having under his command what already then was becoming not only the best Air Defense system in the world but some of the most advanced and breakthrough technologies in both weapon systems and their enablers. But the guy was a moron with agenda and he, probably, wasn't that disposed against being duped to start with. He had a "plan" and we all know how well it worked... for the West. But time never stands still and tables tend to be turned once in a while. Obviously SDI turned out to be nothing more than a PR trick and once the heritage of tractorist Gorbachev and alcoholic Yeltsin was dealt with, new strategic and technological reality begun to emerge, being the sum of all things described above and more, not least a complete loss by Russia and Russians of any trust to a combined West. All this resulted in Russia declaring a new era of warfare and of global balance of power shift on March 1, 2018.  I wasn't melodramatic or driven by pathos when wrote then:

I don't want to sound dramatic and I knew that there were and are always surprises in Soviet/Russian weapons but today's revelations from the highest podium in Russia about Kinzhal were shocking. The balance of power just shifted dramatically, with it the naval warfare as we knew it is no more. It is OVER!    

As it turned out, I haven't been dramatic enough. I did, however, predict already then that the new task of the United States in a face of a radical shift in power balance will be to mount a concerted effort to drag Russia at the negotiating table and try to push as many of new Russian weaponry as possible under the umbrella of one or another type of the treaty, which should mitigate somewhat a strategic catastrophe (from the Western point of view) which real revolution in military affairs brought about. First Russian-America meeting on strategic stability took place yesterday and voila'. As Interfacx reports:

Москва. 29 июля. ИНТЕРФАКС - Москва готова обсуждать с Вашингтоном свои новейшие системы вооружений, включая "Кинжал" и "Посейдон", но не видит оснований для постановки вопроса о потенциальном ограничении возможностей России в этой сфере, заявил "Интерфаксу" в четверг замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков. "Для американцев эта тема представляет интерес, мы, естественно, от разговора не уходим. Суть нашей позиции в данном вопросе: для постановки вопроса в такой плоскости, а именно потенциального ограничения наших возможностей в сфере этих новейших систем, никаких оснований нет. Мы все уже давно объяснили американцам, какие из наших новейших систем подпадают под действие продленного в феврале ДСНВ. Когда эти наши системы будут ставиться на боевое дежурство, мы, разумеется, будем действовать в полном соответствии с требованием договора, в этом нет никаких сомнений", - сказал он, отвечая, в частности, на вопрос, обсуждались ли российские новейшие системы вооружений на переговорах в Женеве.

Translation:  Moscow. July 29. INTERFAX - Moscow is ready to discuss with Washington its latest weapons systems, including the Dagger (Kinzhal) and Poseidon, but sees no reason to raise the issue of a potential limitation of Russia's capabilities in this area, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax on Thursday. "For the Americans, this topic is of interest, we, of course, do not avoid this conversation. The essence of our position on this issue: there are no grounds for bringing this issue in this plane, namely the potential limitation of our capabilities in the field of these new systems. We already explained to the Americans long ago which of our newest systems are subject to the START Treaty extended in February. When these systems of ours are put on alert, we, of course, will act in full compliance with the requirements of the treaty, there is no doubt about that, "he said , answering, in particular, the question whether the Russian advanced weapons systems were discussed at the talks in Geneva.

In other words. you want to talk about those systems? Sure, let's talk, but we are not putting, say, Kinzhal up for negotiations and the United States has practically nothing to offer in return to start with. Sure, there is the issue of anti-missile "defense" in Europe, but it is not the "defense" part which worries Russia, because the West has no systems which can intercept even meaningful part of Russia's missile salvo. The issue are MK-41s VLS which can accommodate TLAMs. Simple as that, but even if to imagine that the United States will be ready to bargain, neither Kinzhal nor Poseidon are "strategic" weapons in a traditional sense. Neither are Tomahawks, BTW. But let's cut all Bullshit and face the reality. Of course, Kinzhal even when carries a conventional warhead, can shift military balance in any theater of operations as fast as the first half-squadron (6-8) of MiG-31Ks could be deployed there, which is the matter of hours, half-a-day tops. Soon all military districts and fleets will have their own squadrons of those; then, the time is cut to a half-hour before on duty "couple" gets airborne. After that ANY surface fleet of any configuration which is within 3,000 kilometer radius of those MiG-31Ks, forget about TU-22M3(M) (that could be an overkill, with each of them carrying 2-3 Kinzhals), has nothing left to do but disperse and hope not to be near capital ships, such as DDGs and CVNs. 

Ryabkov's words in conclusion speak volumes: 

"Мы будем прежде всего заботиться о том, чтобы мы гарантированно были защищены от любой агрессии со стороны любого потенциального противника, включая США, а уже потом, когда мы будем иметь стопроцентные гарантии в этой сфере (сейчас они есть, но их нужно поддерживать на должном уровне дальше), уже потом мы будем смотреть, возможно что-то дальше, невозможно...это вопрос открытый, он очень сложный, и в любом случае США должны понимать, что никаких односторонних уступок, никаких просто шагов навстречу им, просто их пожеланиям без готовности США идти на компромисс, учитывать наши интересы, наши озабоченности в разных сферах, связанных с тем, что США проводят в плане развития собственной военной организации, создания новых систем, появления их в разных регионах, - без этого ничего у них не получится с точки зрения "постановки под контроль" наших новейших систем вооружений", - сказал высокопоставленный российский дипломат.

Translation:  "First of all, we will make sure that we are guaranteed to be protected from any aggression from any potential enemy, including the United States, and only then, when we have one hundred percent guarantees in this area (now they are, but they need to be supported at proper level further), only then will we look, at a possibility of something further down the road... this is an open question, it is very difficult, and in any case, the United States should understand that there are no unilateral concessions, no simple steps towards them, just their wishes without the willingness of the United States to compromise, to take into account our interests, our concerns in various areas related to what the United States is doing in terms of developing its own military organization, creating new systems, and their appearance in different regions - without this they will not succeed with the point of view of "putting under control" our latest weapons systems, "said a senior Russian diplomat.

In diplomatic language it is called "fvck off". Russians are damn aware of what is coming next for Russia's Ministry of Defense, and considering today's contract for the first 10 battalions of S-500s signed, with first battalions being deployed in early 2022 (in Russian), we may only guess what is in works. Newest Yasen M-class Krasnoyarsk will be floated out tomorrow (yes, I know, it is The National Interest):

Russia's New Yasen-Class Submarine Is Here and It Looks Fierce. Yasen-M’s arsenal will be headlined by Russia’s new 3M22 Tsirkon winged anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile, which has a top speed of up to Mach 9 and is capable of performing mid-flight evasive maneuvers.

Now they are talking about the new generation of Peresvet laser-weapons coming soon and it is also clearly stated that navalized version of S-500 is in works and I can bet my ass on this thing being installed on Peter the Great during his (her) upcoming modernization. The only real subject of negotiations today regarding genuine strategic weapons are RS-28 Sarmat and Avangard and only in terms of some (emphasis--SOME) limitation on their deployed numbers and, as you may have guessed it already, IF Russia will discuss those, the price for the American side will be very steep. Because unlike Strategic Defense Initiative, these Russian weapons are not cartoons and PR-tricks. Those are already on combat duty or in IOC and if I would have been asked to characterize those people who run Russia today in two words, my characterization would have been: not Gorbachev. And really, how often you get a leader of a nuclear superpower who is a complete moron and a door mat. Once a century? 

As Was Totally Expected.

Russia will form additional Anti-Air (Anti-Missile) Brigades both at Northern and Pacific Fleets (in Russian). Those formations will be armed with S-300V4 (a very deep modernization of S-300V) complexes, which are on the tracked platforms, thus increasing their mobility in the most forbidden terrain, and they also are capable to develop firing solution while on the move. Those have two types of missiles capable of 150 kilometer and 300 kilometer ranges and taking out targets with the speeds of M=7.5 (that is hypersonic). So, here are the consequences of INF Treaty's "death" and anticipation of US missiles appearing close to Russian borders in the Far East. More about these complexes you can read (in English) here. 

As I said, not for once, China will be very interested, in view of the United States positioning her missiles closer to China, in the inflow of the latest in anti-missile defense from Russia and we can only speculate, at this point, about the volume of this inflow. I am positive it will be significant. Meanwhile, the United States is in rush to demonstrate that she has the means:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military has conducted a flight test of a type of missile banned for more than 30 years by a treaty that both the United States and Russia abandoned this month, the Pentagon said. The test off the coast of California on Sunday marked the resumption of an arms competition that some analysts worry could increase U.S.-Russian tensions. The Trump administration has said it remains interested in useful arms control but questions Moscow's willingness to adhere to its treaty commitments.

There are also some declarations about working on hypersonic weapons, but these are mostly for PR purposes. As for intricacies of the deceased INF Treaty I elaborated not for once on those--the treaty worked for the United States until she had advantage in sea-based weapon systems not covered by this Treaty. Once this advantage was lost--voila'--we have what we have now. 

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said this month that he hopes the Pentagon can develop and deploy INF-range missiles "sooner rather than later," but no specific timeline has been announced. He disputed the notion that abandoning the INF treaty will spark an arms race. "I don't see an arms race happening here," he told reporters on the day Washington and Moscow withdrew from the treaty. "Russia has been racing, if anybody, to develop these systems in violation of the treaty, not us."

Basically tedious, contrived excuses and lies, of course, lies--it is a normal MO in D.C. All that multiplied by sheer incompetence.   

Rostislav Ishenko On INF.

One of the best Russian geopolitical observers, Rostislav Ishenko commented on the death of INF Treaty and Putin's statement at Security Council meeting in this regard couple of days ago. Here are some crucial points he makes on Putin's statement. I already commented exhaustively on the change in the European theater with Kinzhal deployed to Southern Military District.   

Это значит, что, во-первых, Москва оставляет попытки сохранить Договор о РСМД или хотя бы вернуть США за стол переговоров. Во-вторых, Россия не намерена идти на уступки требованиям Вашингтона. В-третьих, российское руководство готово к дальнейшему повышению ставок Америкой, но указывает на опасность такой игры в «кто первый моргнёт», поскольку, если никто не моргнёт, результатом может стать полномасштабный ядерный конфликт с перспективой уничтожения если не человечества, то цивилизации. В-четвёртых, обещание нигде не размещать новые ракеты, пока это не сделают США, свидетельствует, что, как только США это сделают, Россия готова создать новые позиционные районы своих ракет.

ать далее: https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20190806/1024531595.html

Это значит, что, во-первых, Москва оставляет попытки сохранить Договор о РСМД или хотя бы вернуть США за стол переговоров. Во-вторых, Россия не намерена идти на уступки требованиям Вашингтона. В-третьих, российское руководство готово к дальнейшему повышению ставок Америкой, но указывает на опасность такой игры в «кто первый моргнёт», поскольку, если никто не моргнёт, результатом может стать полномасштабный ядерный конфликт с перспективой уничтожения если не человечества, то цивилизации. В-четвёртых, обещание нигде не размещать новые ракеты, пока это не сделают США, свидетельствует, что, как только США это сделают, Россия готова создать новые позиционные районы своих ракет

Читать далее: https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20190806/1024531595.html

Translation: This means that, first, Moscow abandoned attempts to save the INF Treaty or to make US go back to negotiating table. Secondly, Russia is not compromising despite demands from Washington. Thirdly, Russian leadership is ready for raising stakes by the US, but points out the danger of "who blinks first" game, because if nobody blinks--the result could be the full scale nuclear conflict with possibility of annihilation of if not humanity, then, of the civilization. Fourth, the promise not to deploy new missiles unless US does it, shows that Russia is ready to create new positions for her missiles. 

But here is what really is important in Ishenko's piece: 

Арсенал возможных ответов на агрессивную политику США у Москвы практически неисчерпаем. И Путин фактически заявил уже не о готовности, но о намерении перейти к действиям, как только нам покажется, что американцы перешли красную черту. Кремль отдаёт себе отчёт, что идёт опасная игра на грани мировой войны, но «зачем нужен мир, если в нём не будет России»?

Translation: The arsenal of possible responses by Moscow to aggressive policy by the US is practically limitless. Putin clearly stated not just about readiness but about direct intent to act, once Russia sees that the United States crossed the red line. Kremlin clearly understands that a dangerous game bordering on the world war is ongoing, but "why do we need world where there is no Russia"(c) (using Putin's quote).   

I deliberated on military means Moscow has at her disposal very extensively in the last two years. My new book also covers the issue in depth. I just wanted to suggest to read Rostislav's piece in full (Google Translate will do the job) and see for yourself what is the real mood in Russia.

William Perry Is Wrong.

Former US Defense Secretary William Perry, understandably, is upset with INF Treaty being officially dead. And reacting  to its death he noted:

The U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty today deals a great blow to nuclear arms control and global security, we are sleepwalking into a new arms race.

It is an honorable position, but Perry is wrong--we are NOT sleepwalking into a new arms race, we are already in it and the United States finds itself in a very unusual position--it needs to catch up with Russia, and, to a degree, China. I will omit here, not for once articulated rationales' behind the US withdrawal from INF Treaty, but US needs to "close the gap" as fast as it can. The American move was predicted long time ago and it is to develop a newer iteration of a good ol' Pershing (aka Euromissile) and load as many whatever will be deemed needed (Tomahawks most likely) into the Aegis-ashore installations in Europe, among few other things, measures that is.

The Pentagon announced that the US intends to develop conventional ground-based missiles previously banned under the INF arms control treaty, on the very day it expired following Washington’s unilateral exit."Now that we have withdrawn, the Department of Defense will fully pursue the development of these ground-launched conventional missiles,” a Pentagon spokesman said in an emailed statement on Friday.

Pay attention to this "conventional" qualifier. Sure. Conventional it is, wink-wink. Of course, DJT thinks that he may convince, by killing arms control treaties, China to join the party--wrong thinking. In general, I begin to suspect that Trump and his "team" are secret admirers of Pushkin who wrote to Vyazemski that "long ago the main slogan for every Russian person is the worse the better." Wait a minute... Could it be that Bolton is an admirer of Pushkin? Or maybe even...Russia. That should raise the suspicion among Washington D.C. commissars and American Chekists--could it be that in destroying arms control regime DJT, Bolton and others are acting in accordance to...Russian slogan. In fact, they are acting as...Russians who love this the "worse the better" principle! 

Indeed:

WTF is going on?

So, Russiagate, after all, could have been based on real facts of Russian meddling into American democracy by forcing Russian agents DJT (Colonel Trampov), John Bolton (Major Ivan Boltov) and others to implement the evil Russian concept of making shit so bad, that it may become really good, after all. Especially for military contractors. Damn you, Pushkin... Oh, wait. This whole thing needs to be thought over (this weekend)--there are so many signs that Russians as early as 1824, through Pushkin and, later, Dostoevsky, implanted this devastating idea that "worse is better" into American mind and in doing so convinced the United States to become non-agreement capable, ungovernable and utterly bankrupt, including running itself into the ground by trying to win an arms race in which there is only one competitor--the United States which races against itself in whatever little time is left for it to pretend itself scary. This is the situation which needs not Pushkin, though, but likely Gogol or Kafka to describe a full surrealism of contemporary American thinking, which is, indeed, the worse it becomes, the better it is seen for what it is.        

Significant. Very!

Recall a week or so ago US media based on some "sources" claiming tests of unlimited range cruise missile with nuclear power plant only "partially successful".  Well, here are better sources.

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. The tests of the compact nuclear power unit for cruise missile Burevestnik have been successfully competed in Russia, a source in the missile producing industry told TASS."A major stage of trials of the cruise missile of the Burevestnik complex, the tests of the nuclear power unit, were successfully completed at one of facilities in January," he said. The trials "sustained stated specifications of the reactor ensuring the missile’s unlimited range," the source added.

I do not take ANY Western MSM "sources" seriously, on the other hand big Russian news movers, such as TASS, developed a rather impressive record of real trustworthy news and reporting facts even when making such, traditional in business, statements as:

No official confirmation of the information provided by the source has been obtained by TASS.

Truth is, the dynamics of geopolitical re-balancing after Putin's historic March 1, 2018 Address to Federal Assembly, where he revealed weapon systems which already revolutionized warfare, changed dramatically--the United States literally went berserk in her desperate attempts to arrest own decline, including framing Europe by means of installing US intermediate range missiles, aimed at Russia, there in a futile (and really stupid, honestly) attempt to recreate conditions for American revival akin to post-WW II situation when the devastating war happens elsewhere and the US enters the stage after the war to collect on restoration. I kid you not--many in D.C. think like that, they really live in a delusion. 

Success with Burevestnik (Petrel) unlimited range cruise missile, capable to loiter for days (or weeks) before striking from the most vulnerable directions, has a major ramifications for people in Washington who do believe that the US proper can be defended. But here is my thesis from two years ago:

There is a popular point of view in some of Russia’s political circles, especially among those who profess monarchist views and cling to a famous meme of 1913 Tsarist Russia development statistics, that WW I was started by Germany to forestall Russia’s industrial development which would inevitably challenge Germany’s plans on domination of Europe. A somewhat similar argument could be made for the WW II, but, in general, preventive wars are nothing new in human history. While “preventive” argument may or may not be a valid one regarding WW I, there is no doubt that it could be used, among others, when explaining the origins of a war.

US now is in full blown "preventive war" mode against Russia and, to a large extent, China. I would, however, state that Russia stands as number one in this list precisely for the reasons of Russia redefining warfare, blowing out of the water myth of American military omnipotence. Hysterical reactions, including trying to label Russia a state sponsor of terrorism (LOL) in latest Graham-Menendez bill, are excellent signs of a complete state of "losing it". 

Introduction of Petrel into service will additionally create an enormous cognitive dissonance for US "elites" who will have to contend with new warfare reality of swarms of really "smart" missiles simply hanging "out there" while deciding what and when to attack. This brings another interesting twist to the dynamics of escalation to a nuclear threshold. Because Petrels have unlimited range they will be deployed in places where they will be beyond the ranges of US intermediate range missiles deployed in Europe (they will be deployed)--in other words, there will be more than enough time to launch them in case of US attack. How many? I don't know--20-30, maybe 100. After that--good luck catching them somewhere in Patagonia, over Brazil or in Africa, that is until they begin to converge on US targets. Well, you get the picture... I sense another "Star Wars" coming. That, plus other economic and ideological warfare means and, of course, increased doctrine-mongering. As per Petrel-Burevestnik, for people in D.C. who never read Maxim Gorky's Song of Burevestnik, they should really update themselves on what this poem is about and why Russians voted to name this weapon system Petrel, especially closing lines:

-Tempest! Soon will strike the tempest!
-That is the courageous Petrel proudly soaring in the lightning over the sea's roar of fury; cries of victory the prophet:

-Let the tempest come strike harder!    

INF Treaty Is Officially Dead.

When even Foreign Policy magazine feels the pinch: 

Withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty would take the United States one step forward and many steps back on international security.

One has to consider that not everybody completely lost their marbles in D.C. but, as I stated not for once, by now it doesn't really matter because after the US officially informed Russia about quitting the Treaty, Russians responded in kind and immediately after that proceeded with what largely was in place already.  

MOSCOW, February 2. /TASS/. The Russian government will allocate required funds for research and technological development (R&D) and for the development of new weapons following the United States’ withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF treaty), Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Twitter on Saturday.

What those R&D and actions could be? Very simple and expected--Russia will leverage her massive lead in both missile and anti-missile technology. As Putin termed it, Russia will start with "grounding" of 3M14 of Kalibr family cruise missiles, that is deploying them on the ground launchers, and then, surprise, surprise (not really)--development of ground-based hyper-sonic intermediate range missiles, while simultaneously deploying anti-air-missile complexes capable of dealing with exactly types of missiles the US has in mind. 

From the historic perspective Putin is being anti-Gorbachev in a most profound way. This all is not an accident, it is all part of largely healthy process of Russians reassessing their historic experience since 1980s, not least of which is the revision of the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and inevitable facing of the same ol' problem Russia will have to face in the nearest future with Taliban and ISIS having plans for Russia's soft Middle Asia underbelly. Expect charges leveled at Gorbachev for withdrawal in 1989 and Yeltsin for betraying Najibulla government in Kabul in 1991. These are the charges I leveled at these, one dead another still living, lowlifes non-stop for years. One cannot escape geopolitical fate. So, it is official and maybe it is all for the good. Let Europe, meanwhile, deal with this new reality. 

MAGA All The Way.

As was expected: 

The Trump administration is poised to announce Friday that it is withdrawing from a treaty that has been a centerpiece of superpower arms control since the Cold War and whose demise some analysts worry could fuel a new arms race.An American withdrawal, which has been expected for months, follows years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact, known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. It was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 500 kilometers (310 miles) and 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles). Russia denies that it has been in violation.

Obviously Russia is not in violation of that treaty, she simply has better missiles and because of that this whole thing, the INF Treaty that is, is dead. But not only that--the US needs similar weapons around China. So, all pretense of abiding by treaties and international law is thrown out, but we knew and anticipated this anyway. What is most fascinating, however, is how Trump's Administration became one of the most neocon-infested admins in recent history with even W having his doubts on such specimens as Bolton, not to mention a crooked psychopath such as Elliott Abrams. And here is how Daniel Larison assesses Trump:

The framing of this New York Times article on Trump and Venezuela is all wrong:

Mr. Trump’s forceful challenge to Mr. Maduro is the first such intervention in his anti-interventionist presidency, a sharp departure from an “America First” foreign policy aimed at extracting the United States from overseas quagmires and staying out of the internal affairs of other countries.

The analysis here is wildly misleading. The Trump administration has previously taken a keen interest in meddling in the internal affairs of several countries, including Yemen, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela, and he has publicly threatened to attack most of those countries along with North Korea. The latest decision to recognize the opposition leader as Venezuela’s interim president is an outgrowth of the administration’s consistent hawkish position over the last two years.

I have to agree with Larison here--it is not just bellicose rhetoric, Trump completely out of his own volition turned his MAGA into MAAA--Make America Aggressive Again. Not that it was very difficult to do to start with. In fact, he succeeded greatly by laying down the foundation for further American decline and loss of any respect. I have no reasons to like Maduro and all those South American "lefties" but if the regime change in Venezuela does occur (with Trump recognizing some young globalist stooge as legitimate president of the sovereign nation), one has to seriously think about American elites being completely unhinged. Trump is turning into proverbial American war-monger (narcissism was always with him as a malt) and one has to admit--he turned out to be no contest for the cabal of even moronic neocon shysters any person with even rudimentary knowledge of international system and geopolitics would have no problem figuring out. But not Trump--a NYC real estate hustler and TV personality. In general, he betrayed MAGA the same way he gave up on General Flynn, not understanding that if one wanted to change America's (and possibly world's) course away from oblivion one had to learn slightly more than how to built casinos and upscale (and grossly overpriced) condos. But in the end, one has to ask now the question--are there any normal and competent people left in D.C.? Call it a hunch, but I don't think there are any, anymore. And Trump comes across today as defeated and totally corralled by people he thought he was smarter than them. Boy, was he wrong and that is bad news for what remains of American Republic.   

We Have Been Through This Before, Haven't We?

Last time, the US got lucky that Soviet Union had a person at its helm who was hell bent on destroying the country and, as a consequence, shut down any serious expertise in the issue of what came to be known as SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative), aka Star Wars. Serious experts in USSR (military and scientists) desperately tried to inform Gorbachev that this SDI thing was mostly bluff and cartoons. They were ignored, Gorbachev needed an excuse, as Yakov Kedmi termed it, for meeting American "partners" in a doggy-style manner. We all know what happened next and, as usual, the United States learned all the wrong lessons from this. 

American idea of keeping a homeland completely defended from any kind of attack is understandable, it is also utterly utopian. Yet, acting both on wrong geopolitical (and historic, I may add) assumptions and out of interests of powerful military-industrial complex lobby and totally corrupt political system, US tries to repeat what she perceives her greatest triumph in the Cold War 1.0, facts and real history be damned.  So, the United States decided to: 

President Donald Trump ripped yet another page from Cold War strategy books Thursday by directing the Pentagon to look into developing a constellation of space-based sensors and interceptors that could stop missiles before they reach the United States. “We will de­stroy every type of mis­sile at­tack against any Amer­i­can tar­get, whether before or af­ter launch,” he told a crowd assembled inside the Pentagon auditorium. “When it comes to de­fend­ing Amer­ica, we will not take any chances. We will only take ac­tion.” The need for new technologies, the President said, was necessary to deal with the growing size and sophistication of missile arsenals belonging to hostile states, such as Iran, North Korea, Russia and China. In addition, he out­lined plans to install 20 additional ground-based inter­cep­tor mis­siles at Fort Greely, Alaska, a decision that was previously announced.

As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. While some are afraid of the arms race between the US and Russia (and China), truth is--this race never stopped. American political and intellectual top has become so sterile in terms of its, well, intellect, that the only thing it is capable of is to remain an old dog incapable of learning new tricks. This, plus a desperate desire to bury INF Treaty, which comes down to "intercepting" Iranian (LOL) missiles at Russian borders. But Deja Vu doesn't stop here. As ever confused German diplomacy starts its so familiar from 1980s, in slightly more modern arrangements, tune:

Moscow (AFP) - German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Friday called on Russia to destroy a controversial missile system Washington says breaches a key arms control treaty. "We believe Russia can save this treaty," Maas said after talks with Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, referring to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF). "It affects our security interests in a fundamental way."

Maas sings here from the American music sheet and it is totally expected from Germany. As I wrote some time ago, it is all about a generational lag in weapon systems between US and Russia. People in Pentagon are not idiots, at least some of them, they can calculate probabilities, required forces (missiles), math expectations etc. So, they know the score:

1. No system, unless it is based on a dramatically radical new technology, based on some bizarre physical principles (no, not lasers) can intercept any of Russia's newest weapons. This is decades away. Putting something ABM in Alaska against the background of RS-28 Sarmat or Avangard which can attack from any direction (how about through Mexico), is akin to treating 4th stage aggressive cancer with aspirin. But:

2. Pouring money into some systems, which are immensely expensive, will be good for US military-industrial complex which will greatly improve employment statistics and the fountain of desirable fat bonuses and new sinecures for retiring Pentagon people will erupt with a renewed force. 

Probably, the first indication that 1980s SDI trick will not work as desired is Russian rather nonchalant reaction to all this. Obviously, Lavrov expressed regret that INF Treaty is all but over (Russians know that START will follow) and all that chit-chat, but Russian military solution is already in place and what is left is to observe in amusement how the United States will continue to bankrupt itself by "investing" into something totally useless. There is another hypothesis here too: those people in the US who, actually, tried to study Russia, they couldn't fail to notice that Russia's recent (since mid-2000s) economic breakthrough was achieved by means of revitalizing Russian military-industrial complex (MIC), which was used as locomotive of hi-tech development. This will not work in US since Russian and American MICs are genetically different and have different effect on respective economies. For starters, incidents of Russian MIC producing enormously expensive dubious systems are dramatically lower than is the case in the US. 

As per actual weapons--the reason this whole thing is utopian and wasteful is because Russia (and reportedly China) is far ahead in developing anti-satellite weapons, which will act as interceptors for any space-based weapon systems thus degrading greatly any possible response. Here is 2017 report of the Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coates to Senate Select Committee on Intelligence:

Some new Russian and Chinese ASAT weapons, including destructive systems, will probably complete development in the next several years. Russian military strategists likely view counterspace weapons as an integral part of broader aerospace defense rearmament and are very likely pursuing a diverse suite of capabilities to affect satellites in all orbital regimes. Russian lawmakers have promoted military pursuit of ASAT missiles to strike low-Earth orbiting satellites, and Russia is testing such a weapon for eventual deployment. A Russian official also acknowledged development of an aircraft launched missile capable of destroying satellites in low-Earth orbit.

We need to be very clear on what is going on, especially after March 1, 2018 public arrival of a new paradigm in warfare--the US was put in a position which she thought she would never be in--a necessity to respond and to catch up. Destruction of Arms Control regime and attempts to replay Cold War 1.0 are such responses. Many observers, me included, noted already in 2014 that the United States was put into zugzwang, when each next move deteriorates position. Why it is so, my next book looks into these issues. In the end, nobody forced the United States to unilaterally abandon ABM Treaty in 2002, she did it completely on own volition and, may I add, wrong assumptions. And that was worse than a crime, it was a blunder. 

What Is This All About (INF Treaty, Again).

An interesting piece of news today caught my eye. At the expanded Ministry of Defense board in Moscow today, Shoigu informed about this:

"In November, the strategic Tu-160 missile-carrying bomber that underwent modernization successfully test-fired 12 Kh-101 airborne cruise missiles at the Pemboi range located beyond the Polar Circle," the defense minister said. The bomber made the salvo launch of missiles on the instruction of the Russian president, Shoigu said. The Russian Armed Forces are building up their strike potential to counter the deployment of the US global missile shield, Russia’s defense chief said

This announcement came on the heels of Putin himself asking a rather obvious question, which I was and am asking since the signing of this proverbial INF Treaty in 1987 and made my position (however inconsequential for the fates of the arms control regime) known not for once. President of Russian Federation was pretty much in the same vicinity today when stated that he still cannot understand why Soviet Union disarmed unilaterally and de facto accused Gorbachev of treason (in Russian). So, I think, at this stage this pretty much sums it up for Gorbachev and his cabal's activities, but let bygones be bygones and let Gorbachev die a pathetic loser.

Yet, the issue of INF Treaty still remains and it all comes down to a technological dimension. Russia does have a cruise missile salvo at mainland USA already and the weight of this salvo by very long range X-101/102 cruise missiles will only grow which comes with the program of both update and new construction of TU-160 strategic bombers. And then, of course, there are persistent rumors about future PAK-DA strategic bomber and whatever new cruise missile it will be carrying. Just two TU-160s landing in Venezuela last week created a rather furious reaction on the US side with Pompeo (who is neocons' neocon) providing a diatribe:

The Russian and Venezuelan people should see this for what it is: two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.     

Pompeo, obviously is not well informed about "suffering" of Russian people, for all very legitimate Russia's economic issues, but such an ignorance is expected from US top brass, especially from utterly corrupt organization which pretends to have something to do, for unknown reasons, with the art of diplomacy. But if to look pass increasingly irrational, bordering on hysterical, rhetoric emanating from Washington, Pompeo and others' worries are not without some rational justification, it is purely military one and the salvo of 12 X-101s in November from a single TU-160 surely serves as a good demonstration of the capability of these bombers to strike US territory both over the North Pole and from the South of the US proper. 24 X-101 missiles is a very serious argument in such a strategic consideration. 

Russia will continue to press the issue purely militarily; that was the whole idea from the inception--doing so in the field in which Russia pulled ahead dramatically in the last decade. Russians know that the US proper doesn't have really serious Air Defense, US anti-ballistic missile defense is also of dubious quality and it is, certainly, not designed to deal with serious, massive, salvos of stealthy, low flying cruise missiles. Russia is taking the "war" (or threat, if to be academic), a conventional one (Russia continues to be able to destroy US in nuclear exchange since 1960s, same goes the other way around) to the US proper. Putin, today, again was absolutely nonchalant when responding to the US leaving INF Treaty when speaking about ground-based missiles:

И, как вы понимаете, если у нас воздушного и морского базирования такие системы есть, то большого труда не составит провести соответствующие НИОКР и поставить их на землю, если потребуется

Translation: And, as you understand, since we have such sea and air-based systems, it wouldn't take much effort to conduct appropriate R&D and make them ground-based, if necessary.

I guess this sums it up pretty well and while the actual role of the arms race, traditionally grossly exaggerated, primarily based on statements by none other than Gorbachev, who continues to lie non-stop in order to whitewash a disaster his "rule" became, in the collapse of the Soviet Union is yet to be competently and seriously studied, there is very little doubt today that Russia, actually, is not against some form of "arms race" with the US. In fact, Russia got the US almost exactly where she wants her under present circumstances—Russia poses a threat of both nuclear and conventional (counter)attack on US territory. Russians know for sure:

1. That the United States has a legitimate need for updating her nuclear deterrent, as an example. Ohio-class SSBNs are becoming not only very old, they are also not as "invincible" as US propaganda likes to portray them. US also is in need, and its growing exponentially, to address the air (missile) defense of US proper and US is also in dire need for a doctrinal rethinking of her navy and ground forces. Here, we come to the next point:

2. American military manufacturing is not enormously expensive, it is prohibitively expensive especially in relations to a very hi end systems such as C4ISR. Russians know this and Russians can count too, even when having to navigate a jungle of American budgetary lingo and bizarre bookkeeping.

So, Russia is pretty content with nuclear weapons "competition" since she knows quite well what it may cost US to "offset" Russia's advantage in such systems. In general, this latest Russian MoD board was fascinating in many respects. Be that a number of 31 Yars and Avangards getting into full operational capability, or the fact that MiG-31Ks patrol now both Caspian and Black Sea on regular a basis (89 patrols with practical launches of Kinzhals were conducted so far this year)—this all testifies to a massive shift in military-strategic balance in the world and we are not even in a full disclosure mode on full capabilities of new weapon systems nor about what else is coming soon. One can only guess, granted with high degree of reliability, that by the end of decade of 2020 we will cross (if we all survive) into technologies which will completely redefine the way war is conducted between states—it will be very long range, hyper-sonic, low-observable, new physical principles-based and will leave no protection to those who still buy their own BS about exceptionalism.

Somehow, recent tone of many US "establishment" media, such as this ignorant piece by Dmitri Simes, testifies to the fact that:

1. Putin's March 1^st address to Federal Assembly did finally sink in in the US. Now, delayed by the primitive arrogance and desire to view itself as a big honcho, reactions begin to pour in and a range of a bizarre (often self-medicating and delusional) "doctrines" designed to address own increasingly manifest weakness is simply astonishing;

2. The growing realization that currently there is absolutely no even a faintest idea on how to extricate the United States from a serious existential crisis she faces and appearance of such an idea within US "establishment" is completely precluded because of the utter incompetence of people who run the US today, from her media, academe to political top. 

American ruling "elite" turned out to be a one trick pony and, as the old saying goes, you cannot teach an old dog new tricks. As failed experiment with Trump has shown, the United States will continue on her path to utter bankruptcy, unable to correct trajectory (mediocrities, who are in charge now, need not apply), and the main task today remains to prevent a global war, which is increasingly seen in the US by some as the only way to avoid a day of reckoning. Needless to say, this war is seen as possible in the US by people who have zero knowledge and qualifications in serious military issues and it is not a bad idea to keep reminding all kinds of neocon trash which runs Empire today from their comfy country clubs and offices that many of them will have their own personal conventional 3M14 or X-101 with their names on them if they decide to push for the real deal. 

UPDATE: Damnit, the moment I finished this post, GAO publishes their latest (and freshest) report and guess what, here is what they state (unless, of course one wants to accuse them in colluding with Russians):

The main question, of course, is: how much will it cost and when anything even remotely capable of dealing with a single hyper-sonic missile will be created in the US? I know part of the answer: it will take many years, it will cost astronomical sum of money and it will be marginally effective, if at all.