It Has Been Posted ...

 ... in comments, but it is worth repeating by Dmitry Medvedev. 

The U.S.–Iran conflict has been put on hold. Predictably, both sides are claiming victory. So who won? First of all, common sense did – though faith in it was badly shaken when the White House started talking about wiping out Iranian civilization in one day. Still, the very fact that Trump agreed to discuss the 10-point plan is a win for the Iranians. The question is whether Washington will accept it, since it includes, among other things, compensation for the damage inflicted on Iran, the continuation of its nuclear program, and Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. The answer is clearly no. That would be humiliating and would amount to a real victory for the Islamic Republic. So what then? Back to war?

That’s possible. But there is also another option. Trump neither wants nor can sustain a long war, and he won’t find support in Congress for one, either. This means he must maintain the fragile ceasefire and pretend that everything is fine. Because every step on this board pushes the situation closer to zugzwang. But this is a game of chess with three players, not two: there’s also Israel, which is not playing on the U.S. side. It has no use for a ceasefire, and it has not achieved its objectives. It could very well make its own move: simply sweep all the pieces off the board. That makes the situation highly uncertain. Which also means the pigheaded European Russophobes will have to live in austerity mode for a long time. Because there is no cheap oil in sight…

Highlighted is the crux of the matter. I want to remind you:

A particular strategic policy must be devised for every war; each war is a special case, which requires its own particular logic, rather than any kind of stereotype or pattern, no matter how splendid it may be. The more our theory encompasses the entire content of modern war, the quicker it will assist us in analyzing a given situation. A narrow doctrine would probably confuse us more than guide us.

That's Svechin. The US "strategic policy", strategy and operational art is the always the same--launch whatever you have in stand-off weaponry (long range fires) and see what, like that proverbial substance, sticks. Svechin continues:

The first duty of the art of politics with respect to strategy is to formulate the political goal of a war. Any goal should be strictly coordinated with the resources available to achieve it. The political goal should be appropriate to one’s war-waging capabilities. To meet this requirement, a politician must have a correct conception of the relations of friendly to hostile forces, which requires extremely mature and profound judgment; a knowledge of the history, politics and statistics of both hostile states; and a certain amount of competence in basic military matters. The final statement of the goal would be made by the politician after an appropriate exchange of views with strategists, and it should help rather than hinder strategic decisions. 

As you might expect, it is not a secret, American politicians do not know what resources are, how they affect operational issues and, of course, average American politician thinks that he (she) is the brightest, most powerful and knowledgeable strategist because he (she) graduated Harvard or similar degree mill's political science or law school, while denying the same to their opponents. The fact that most people in US decision circle are highly uncultured, primitive uneducated hacks who know only apparatus games and staying elected (or appointed) doesn't occur to them. 

Rephrasing old military truism that "while amateurs discuss tactics, professionals discuss logistics", while amateurs discuss capitalization and stocks, professionals discuss tons, units, kilowatt-hours and correlation of forces and means (COFM). So, Medvedev is spot on here and if hostilities resume (it may happen), they will resume with Iran dominating the battlefield even more and being able to inflict much more pain on the US and that chihuahua in Levant which without its nukes and American welfare is a third rate power. 

This guy, however, was pushed to sue for ceasefire by his Israeli masters because neither could take it anymore. So, will wait and see what comes out of it in the long run. 

It Is In Russian.

But Mikhail Mishustin, Russia's Prime Minister--a motor behind Russia's economic growth--speaking to his cabinet today talks about ...

... well--what to do with Russia now sitting at the top of the energy world (and not energy only) and with Russia's return as a "reliable provider" of energy and other needs globally. I speak about it and sheer madness of Israeli puppet Trump in my today's video which should be up shortly. But Israel and AIPAC have destroyed the US and many people still cannot grasp the gravity of the situation. I warned about it for many years--I repeat: once the Hollywood myth of American "military might" is blown out of the water, it is over for the US as a self-proclaimed "hegemon". It did happen now. It took only 4 years (an instant in historic terms) to do so, and it takes one (just one) mistake to kill the empire. The US made two. 

Here is the state of the US today:

Genocidal sanctimonious Israeli-first asshole Mark Levin explaining to a Shabbos goy Trump what he must do for Israel. America be damned. 

In Related News...

 ... BS primarily occupies the space in the brains of NATO military "leaders" where such things as sound military education, experience, logic and Sun Tzu's triviality about "knowing thy enemy et al" should reside instead of this substance of bovine excrement, but who am I kidding.  

WIESBADEN, Germany (Reuters) - NATO will not be cowed by Russian threats but keep up its strong support of Kyiv, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on his first visit to the alliance's Ukraine mission in Wiesbaden, set to take over the coordination of military aid from the U.S. "The message (to Russian President Vladimir Putin) is that we will continue, that we will do what's necessary to make sure that he will not get his way, that Ukraine will prevail," he told Reuters in a joint interview with German public radio Hessischer Rundfunk on Monday. Rutte spoke at Clay Barracks, the U.S. base hosting the headquarters of the new mission, dubbed NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), which will gradually assume the coordination of Western military aid to Kyiv.

Yes, it is always a good idea of creating the commission on managing the previous commissions which have been created for the study of the issue on creating more commissions. 

Speaking in one of 12 green tents that house NSATU as it is built up, Rutte earlier on Monday addressed allied troops from more than a dozen nations already working on the mission that will, at a later stage, move into a nearby hangar and be complemented by Ukrainian troops. NSATU is expected to have a total strength of some 700 personnel, including troops stationed at NATO's military headquarters SHAPE in Belgium and at logistics hubs in Poland and Romania. The Wiesbaden base is also home to the U.S. unit in charge of long-range missiles that Washington will deploy to Germany temporarily from 2026, to counter what both countries describe as a threat posed by Russian missiles stationed as close as Kaliningrad, some 500 kilometres (311 miles) from Berlin.

Say what? How could they have allowed this thing to happen in the midst of... only 12 green tents. There should have been at least... three times more green tents. 

How can anyone plan aid and NATO operations for VSU in only 12 green tents is beyond me, plus--what kind of a joke is this? Why green tents? They should be pink or, at least, of some sort of light reddish hue. 

But, of course, the reality of the resources and scales is not known to such people as Rutte (look up his bio--the guy's background is... fabulous) who from the day one has a firm hand of Washington up his ass to assure that he doesn't deviate from the party line while NATO (a euphemism for the USA) is in desperate search of a solution to this conundrum. After all, in accordance to Pentagon and State Department "planning" Putin's "regime" was supposed to collapse some time late 2022--early 2023. Well, it is the end of 2024, and apart from demolishing best ever American proxy, the news are really bad. Like this:

МОСКВА, 15 окт — РИА Новости. Рубль по итогам августа впервые стал главной валютой для расчетов за импорт товаров и услуг из стран азиатского региона, следует из анализа РИА Новости данных Банка России. В конце лета его доля в платежах достигла рекордных 43,6% против 42,9% месяцем ранее. При этом удельный вес рубля превысил валюты дружественных стран в августе на 0,6 процентного пункта, что позволило российской валюте стать основной для оплаты поставок. Рекордную долю рубль также занял в расчетах за африканские товары, увеличившись на 0,5 процентного пункта — до 69,9%, а также за поставки из Океании, где им оплачивается 84,3%. В целом в августе российская валюта стала использоваться в импорте немного меньше — 44,7% против 45,9% в июле. Одновременно сократилась и доля дружественных валют — сразу на 2,2 процентного пункта, до 31,2%. А вот главными бенефициарами стали "токсичные" валюты, в которых стали оплачивать 24,1% российского импорта против 20,7% месяцем ранее. Главным образом это произошло за счет увеличения доли недружественных валют в расчетах за импорт из Азии (+1,1 процентного пункта, 13,3%), Америки (+8,3 процентного пункта, 71%) и Европы (+6,9 процентного пункта, 49,3%).

Translation: MOSCOW, 15 Oct — RIA Novosti. The ruble became the main currency for payments for imported goods and services from Asian countries for the first time in August, according to RIA Novosti’s analysis of Bank of Russia data. At the end of summer, its share in payments reached a record 43.6% against 42.9% a month earlier. At the same time, the share of the ruble exceeded the currencies of friendly countries in August by 0.6 percentage points, which allowed the Russian currency to become the main one for paying for deliveries. The ruble also took a record share in payments for African goods, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 69.9%, as well as for deliveries from Oceania, where it is used to pay for 84.3%. Overall, the Russian currency began to be used slightly less in imports in August — 44.7% against 45.9% in July. At the same time, the share of friendly currencies also decreased — by 2.2 percentage points, to 31.2%. But the main beneficiaries were "toxic" currencies, which began to pay for 24.1% of Russian imports, compared to 20.7% a month earlier. This was mainly due to the increase in the share of unfriendly currencies in payments for imports from Asia (+1.1 percentage points, 13.3%), America (+8.3 percentage points, 71%) and Europe (+6.9 percentage points, 49.3%).

These numbers (with minor fluctuations) are the material manifestation of what real military power buys one, not just sovereignty but the ability to trade with your partners in whatever currency and on whatever conditions one wants. And Kazan is coming...  

Why Russia Is Not Running Out Of Ammo.

The hint is in the latest statements by Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov, Ushakov and many others. To put it in simple terms: Russia is NOT running out of ammo, high precision stand off weapons, tanks and aircraft because Russia was getting ready for the war with NATO (euphemism for combined West) in which even SMO is but one of many fronts and operations. Surely, RUSI's report on the "return" (I never heard of it ever going away) of "industrial warfare" may have come as a surprise to West's "elites", but the truth is--human civilization and its, sadly, major product--the warfare--always ran, runs and will continue to run on such things as steel, aluminum, oil, other sources of energy, other materials which are crucial in production of anything war related starting from fuel and artillery shells to finished and highly complex things such as satellites, submarines and combat aircraft. No steel, aluminum, composite materials or oil--no civilization and no modern warfare. 

So, the latest data on steel, which comes into... everything in human civilization, and especially into war effort, for 2021 looked like this:

As you can see yourself, Russia, who is now fighting a whole of combined West is doing fairly well in terms of production of the key war material, and even with the estimate (e) qualifier in a front of its data, which means no accurate data, often by design of western sources, is roughly at 90% of steel production by the United States. Not too shabby, once one considers the fact of Russian population being more than twice smaller. And as I said, steel translated into shells, tanks, submarines and other things of this nature. OK!

What's the deal with other crucial material from which most of combat aviation derives--aluminum.  

Oh boy, the only hope for the US in this crucial material is its northerly neighbor of Canada. Without Canada's aluminum the United States is not even a player at aluminum market against Russia and India. Forget about China. And if one subtracts a magnificent American infrastructure she inherited from Asministrations of FDR or Eisenhower, among a very few others, overall state of modern American infrastructure is not that great. And once one begins to view the energy production, look at the latest for 2021:

Think about it. Russia, being twice smaller in population than the United States, produces 69% of American production of energy and more than half that of China. To produce a variety of both civilian and military products you need energy, a lot of it. And this is precisely the reason Russia is not running out of ammo and high precision stand off weapons, because Russia IS prepared to take war to where combined West realistically cannot, without obliterating human civilization. 

And even in this horrifying, unthinkable, business there are many indicators that Russia may survive in one form or another, while combined West will cease to exist physically. It is a horrifying scenario to even contemplate, but it is clear that Russia already has in place a serious ABM program, which will only expand and may, in the future, mitigate US nuclear deterrent. In fact, all indicators of that are in place. But then again, I warned about it for years when was calling on the US (Europe is not a factor here) to engage Russia on a whole host of issues of mutual relations in order to find modus vivendi. It is late now, especially against the background of an economic catastrophe unfolding for the combined West and the issue is now existential and metaphysical, not just geopolitical one. And Russia is not running out of ammo.

Ah, Olaf Scholz Got The Message.

Do I feel smug at this moment? Come on, I am just human with all my human flaws, can I allow myself  at least a brief moment of feeling good about myself and what I do? 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared for his war on Ukraine for at least a year before inciting it, and predicted Putin is likely to be able to maintain a drawn-out offensive for a "long time." Scholz made the comments in a Thursday interview with CBS News "Face the Nation" moderator and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan at the NATO summit in Madrid. The war on Ukraine has now dragged on for more than four months, and Russia is using its firepower to make incremental gains. US intelligence estimates that Russia currently holds about 20% of the country, mostly in eastern Ukraine.  "When will Russia no longer have the ability to continue this fight? When will Putin run out of weapons, run out of funds? Or can this continue for years," Brennan asked Scholz.

No one really knows, Scholz replied, but Putin's lengthy planning suggests he's prepared for a sustained war effort. "He has — he is perhaps the leader of a very great country with a lot of people living there, with a lot of means, and he is really doing this brutal war with — and he prepared for it [for] very long," Scholz said. "I think the decision to- to do this war was taken one year before it started or possibly earlier because he prepared for it. And so, he will be able to continue with the war really a long time."

Let me clarify some things here. 

1. Olaf Scholz cannot be viewed as a good source of expertise on anything related to warfare, real economy and, especially so, in relation to Russia. He simply has zero qualifications, even when one considers his present post as Germany's Chancellor. What he gets are some reports from a few remaining real professionals in BND and Bundeswehr who told him, I am sure, from the get go, about REAL situation. As the unlucky fate of some Germany's top brass testifies, such as Admiral Shonbach's forced resignation, Scholz was getting more or less reliable forecasting from the very start of SMO. But...

2. Western "elites" are simply incapable to hear "bad news" on anything because most of them are petulant children with the maturity level of high schools teenagers. Enough to take a look at the "levels" of the US State Department or other people from Biden Admin who pretend to run the country. As the result of all that, once the stream of, mostly fake, "news" (a euphemism for propaganda) from Ukraine dried up, reality, including the most important one--on operational and strategic level--began to bite. It hurts, I know. 

But recall, that from the inception I warned about a complete delusion about Russia exercised in the West even by people who are supposed to know. Even deeply respected by me as a true, who he is undoubtedly, military professional and, most importantly, thinker is not free from some obvious misconceptions about Russia. Such as Early Warning ABM capabilities. But combined West miscalculated in the most important aspect of Russia--her massive real economic capability which, in turn, drives Russia's huge mobilization, both economic and military, potential. Only now this "message" begins to trickle UP in both Europe and even Washington D.C. I warned about the dangers of this miscalculations since the very inception of this blog and, of course, in here:

It is worth mentioning, that ANY, I repeat it, any intelligence or military institution in the West is not up to the task of understanding Russia's mobilization potential, which the last 4 months demonstrated perfectly. The FUBAR with delusional thinking regarding West's weapons' deliveries to Ukraine and fantastical thinking of civilian leadership of the West combined with crude and unprofessional propaganda from the US military "experts" demonstrate perfectly how incompetent they are. In the end, I warned, that using the framework of Western "economism" in application to Russia is an exercise in futility, because the same framework doesn't work on West's economy at large either. 

Beaten to death cliche ascribed to many people ranging from Churchill to Metternich that "Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks" is just that--a cliche. In reality, it is just that the West was never really good at understanding of military and economic potential translating into the kinetic action. Let's face it--ALL, without exception, people in the decision making circles in the US know little about the world outside and especially so about Russia--it is a systemic illness of the US body politic as a whole and it is extremely dangerous. I will repeat, again, Russia study field in the combined West and, especially in the US is an academic fraud, populated by pseudo-"academic" shysters with soft Ph.Ds and Russia "expert" community is laughable because of its sheer incompetence, based in low intellectual level. 

But, if even Olaf Scholz begins to if not see (I doubt he is that smart) to, at least, articulate some realities which really matter, then it shows a very carefully hidden from the brainwashed Western public, some major tectonic shifts at least in Europe. Europeans, I know some, are waking up to the reality that the US, namely its neocon mafia in charge of the US foreign policy, would like to see Europe burn in continental war against Russia, while the US will seat it out and then, as in WW II, will come in to claim its spoils. Neocons are one trick ponies and utterly militarily incompetent people, but even such a door mat and America's slap bitch as Scholz begins to recognize that it may end really bad for him personally (that's the main concern) and for the country which he and his government so passionately want to finish off as a nation. So, something is afoot and Scholz suddenly beginning to speak as a man who finally had his two-hour briefing on introductory level geopolitics--you know, geography, industries, military and shit like that--is a good indicator of this. So, in this case, it is a positive development. 

In related news, a neocon rag laments: 

Ukraine’s forces have received less training over the recent weeks, which impacts their capacity to operate some advanced weapons systems, magazine Foreign Policy (FP) reported on Friday, citing sources. Since the launch of Russia's military offensive in the neighboring country in late February, Ukraine has been constantly asking its Western partners to provide them with more heavy weapons and to do so as quickly as possible. However, as a senior US defense official told FP, “the drumbeat of faster, faster, faster” does not always work well because “the Ukrainians needed to have the training to be able to effectively use these systems.” Meanwhile, the Ukrainian officials cited by the FP, complained on the one hand about the “too slow” pace of Western aid but, on the other hand, admitted that “beyond training for the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) and Western artillery, military training for their troops has dipped in recent weeks, leaving them unable to operate more advanced systems.”

Well, no shit geniuses. Main explanation (among few others) is the fact that VSU losses are catastrophic and most capable and smartest have been simply killed. It is a Volkssturm phase for 404, and it is accelerating as I type this. But you see, if those who matter would have been learning in their respective programs something of value and really tried, they wouldn't have to deal with this severe cognitive dissonance and they would have chosen a much more constructive and realistic approach to Russia and we all wouldn't be witnessing what we witness today, not to mention listening (reading) to old fool Kissinger's definitions of victory or loss for Russia. How this artifact is still around and is taken seriously by anyone is a complete mystery to me, but then again--at this stage the West needs to "arrange" face saving measures and not get involved with nuclear exchange with Russia as many neocons want.

They Still Cannot Resign Themselves...

... to a simple fact that UK is not a player in modern geopolitics. It is a small island nation with acutely manifested phantom pains of imperial greatness which disappeared completely after WW II and has been gone now for more than 75 years. Militarily United Kingdom is a midget with semi-autonomous "control" of her nuclear arsenal which in effect are the crumbs from the American nuclear weapons' table. Royal Navy, despite operating a couple of useless aircraft carriers, has only a very few nuclear subs as a real factor in any serious conflict. But the state of the British ground forces is altogether something out of a Benny Hill show, because for all intents and purposes those ground forces do not exist as a viable fighting force. Most importantly, UK doesn't have resources to build anything serious in terms of modern land war. But this is not how British military establishment views it. 

The new head of the British Army has issued a rallying cry to troops - telling them they need to be ready to face Russia on the battlefield.

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who started the job last week, addressed all ranks and civil servants in an internal message on 16 June, seen by the BBC.Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows the need "to protect the UK and be ready to fight and win wars on land", he says. He adds the Army and allies must now be "capable of...defeating Russia".A defence source told the BBC's defence correspondent Jonathan Beale the tone of the message - issued on the Ministry of Defence's internal intranet - was unsurprising.They said all armies train to fight, but the threat has clearly changed. Gen Sir Patrick noted in the message that he was the first Chief of the General Staff "since 1941 to take command of the Army in the shadow of a land war in Europe involving a major continental power".

To fight and win a modern combined arms war against Russia one needs a helluva more resources than UK has or will ever have. But even before one begins to factor in a rather pathetic state of British economy and military technological development, one has to consider a fighting doctrine issue. For starters, Russia is not going to attack UK, unless headless chickenhawks from NATO decide to commit suicide. But then it wouldn't matter anyway--Russia will rearrange stones in London and nothing UK (or, in broader terms, NATO) can do about it. But the issue is even larger, it is this ever present Barnett's 14 points paradigm in which UK is simply non-present with the exception of the financial factor, while the United States is already losing its share in those 14 points with increasing speed. But, in the end, the country which elects BoJo (or, rather, Bozo) as its PM can hardly hope to get itself out of an economic hole which it dug for itself and without it there is very little UK can do for "fighting Russia" other than to continue to buy overpriced and dubiously effective US arms. 

This also brings us to the issue of SMO and not just material resources but issues of C4ISR in which only two countries are competing against each-other and you already guessed it--these are Russia and the US. UK does not even count in matters of combat control, netcentric warfare, full ISR complex, including its space-based assets. So, that reduces any UK military force from today into the future to mere a cannon fodder addition to NATO (read US) military adventurism and I am on record--read my lips: the United States lost the arms race to Russia and the gap only grows. The demonstration of a superb ISR of Russia happened today (in some parts yesterday):

Russian warships have destroyed a Ukrainian command center with Kalibr cruise missiles, killing dozens officers, Moscow's Defense Ministry reported on Sunday. “More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed,” the statement outlined. The strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region. It hit a compound where commanders of several Ukrainian units had gathered for a meeting, according to Moscow. The ministry added that Kalibr missiles were also used to destroy 10 M777 howitzers and up to 20 armored vehicles that were recently delivered from the West, and had been stored inside a factory building in the southern city of Nikolayev.

Russian Duma already responded to these wet dreams of this British military "leader". 

«Вместо того, чтобы попытаться усадить Зеленского за стол переговоров, видные военачальники Британии начинают предаваться мечтам о создании необычайно мощной армии. Они уже грезят о походах и войне на европейском континенте. Но это не способствует улучшению ситуации ни на Украине, ни в Европе, ни в мире», – сказал Герой Российской Федерации, первый заместитель председателя комитета Госдумы по обороне Андрей Красов.«Сейчас весь Запад нацелен только на то, чтобы, как они говорят, «ослабить мощь России». Но эти амбиции неосуществимы. Дело в том, что наши Вооруженные силы обладают всем необходимым для того, чтобы выполнять поставленные перед ними задачи. И ярким тому примером служит специальная военная операция на Украине», – подчеркнул собеседник. Сами же намерения Патрика Сандерса «можно лишь охарактеризовать фразой «надежды юношей питают», отметил Красов. Он также указал на тот факт, что «Великобритании будет довольно сложно превзойти военную мощь России». 

Translation: “Instead of trying to bring Zelensky to the negotiating table, Britain's top military leaders are beginning to dream of building an extraordinarily powerful army. They are already dreaming of campaigns and war on the European continent. But this does not help improve the situation either in Ukraine, or in Europe, or in the world,” said Andrey Krasov, Hero of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. “Now the whole West is aimed only at, as they say, "weaken the power of Russia." But these ambitions are not feasible. The fact is that our Armed Forces have everything necessary to carry out the tasks assigned to them. And a vivid example of this is the special military operation in Ukraine,” the interlocutor stressed. The very intentions of Patrick Sanders “can only be characterized by the phrase “the hopes of young men are nourished,” Krasov noted. He also pointed to the fact that "It will be quite difficult for the UK to surpass the military power of Russia."

Krasov (in Russian) knows what he is talking about, he has a very rich combat (combined arms) experience as paratroop regiment CO, later as Deputy CO of Pskov (76th) air assault division. It is not like he has a degree in marketing. The fate of the West, especially Europe is already decided, and it is not pretty. So, Sir Sanders can dream whatever he wants but UK IS NOT a serious military power and without the US, which itself declines militarily dramatically, is a non-entity which would not sustain serious scale combined arms war for any duration of time. But, it seems, the only war Western generals are good at is the one in publicity and PR. The real combat record, however, is somewhat lacking, to put it mildly, and that should be kept in mind, whenever one hears from the America's lapdogs.

Here is London today:

And this is just the start. Things will get much worse, but I am sure Great Britain's General Staff already made a proper forecast, right? After all, this is what general staffs do--they provide strategic forecasts. In between planning for tolerance and discovery of new genders, and figuring out what people of UK will eat and how they will heat their houses. Other than that--it is all double plus good. Carry on, Sir. 

IngSoc was never closer than it is today.

Larry's Thoughts On Ukraine.

Not military ones, but economic ones.  

Until Joe Biden took office I thought that George W Bush had dibs on the “stupidest foreign policy blunder in history” award. His decision to invade Iraq rather than eliminate Al Qaeda hurt the United States and fueled international terrorism. But leave it to Joe Biden to one-up W by imposing sanctions on Russia that are inflicting an economic holocaust on the United States and Europe. Heck of a job, Joe. The ostensible reason for “punishing” Russia with sanctions that actually pummel the west was Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Now we all know that Ukraine was/is the poorest nation in Europe

Truth is, in 1991 Ukraine was left with the second economy in Europe (after unified Germany) and with a massive Soviet industrial, technological and scientific heritage. Ukraine was supposed to be a massive success. But it didn't happen and a major factor in this utter failure was not just the mutually exclusive cultural mix of the country, but the mentality of people, many of who are still stuck in a village and farm (khutor) paradigm (recall onion and potato "farming" at Maidan in Kiev in 2014). It is the world-view which has been so distorted away from the reality, that the term "ukrainization" begins to sound appropriate when applied even to the American political life both figuratively and literally. Not to mention, of course, as Larry correctly states, 404 becoming both a laundromat and a good "income source" for crooked US politicos and a source of a political machinations for the benefit of primarily (not exclusively, though) Democratic Party. That is why the title of Larry's piece is so correct: Why the West Lusts After Ukraine. Read this excellent write-up by Larry.

But, it seems, it all becomes a moot point because I read somewhere (don't remember where) that even NPR had to admit that Ukraine lied about the real state of the affairs on the fronts of SMO. Well, when you have NPR, which still promotes Russiagate as a factual story, admitting this, it goes without saying that the jury is in for Ukraine and, indeed, Stoltenberg's "formula"--meaning Ukraine ceding territory for peace--begins to preoccupy Western world. But that too is a moot point, because we don't know Russia's plans for Ukraine and something tells me that Russia may not be inclined to let Ukraine exist at all. But we'll see. I could be wrong, because, obviously, I don't have any access to the information Kremlin has about intricacies of present 404's "politics" and if there are enough (if any) political forces in Kiev which could serve as a ruling class for newly reconstituted Ukraine--a fully demilitarized and denazified rump fully dependent on Russia economically. I think we'll know soon enough. 

In related news, there is a hilarious article from the Defense News (a rather comical "military" publication) which states:

WASHINGTON ― Russia’s war in Ukraine is making clear to the U.S. Department of Defense that it must get logistics and sustainment right in the Pacific theater, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said Monday. Russia’s logistics and sustainment failures during its three-month-old invasion of Ukraine are a “very hard lesson” for Moscow, and the U.S. as well, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said at a DefenseOne event. “The Russians are operating on their own border, and yet we saw [their] substantial logistics challenges. For the United States to be effective in the Pacific, we already have a significant logistics challenge [to overcome], worsened by the reliance that we have on fuel,” Hicks said. “Making sure we understand how to go after that logistics challenge is one lesson that we can extrapolate, if you will, from what we see today.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost immediately faced challenges with logistics and difficulties getting food, water and supplies to troops. It failed in its early objective of taking Kyiv and occupying a large swath of Ukraine, and has now concentrated most its forces in eastern Ukraine. Hicks on Monday praised U.S. “logistics and information sharing” in coordinating allies to arm and equip Ukrainian forces. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is set this week to convene a third meeting of the U.S.-led Ukraine contact group, which has more than 40 member nations.

Apart from Kathleen Hicks being utterly unqualified for her job (and you guessed it, her Ph.D is in a political "science"), she also operates in alternative reality, because she continues to operate with pure BS and, obviously, she never learned real war history and didn't attend this Academy, where they actually teach how to supply modern armed forces in real wars. But then again, whatever it takes to hide oneself from being recognized as a sore loser and incompetent hack. In related news for Hicks, did she write anything on the issue of  logistics security in the war with a peer competitor which leverages its advantage in a targeting and stand-off high precision weapons, including long range hypersonic ones, when interdicting lines of communications in the ocean? I talk, of course, about China. Nah, I am being facetious. Those who want to see Hicks' "scientific contribution", you can easily read (if you have a few hours of your life to waste on a steaming pile of pseudo-academic BS) her "dissertation" here:

Change Agents: Who Leads and Why in the Execution of US National Security Policy

With such "specialists", no wonder the US finds itself in present predicament. 

Charlatans From Economics.

Generally speaking, what passes in the West and, by default, many other places globally for "economic science" is almost a complete BS, a pseudo-science, a euphemism for fraud and snake oil peddling. Long ago economics in the West has become nothing more than just another political and ideological tool in the arsenal of means which serve only one end--the recycling of Western political "elites" at the top while selling an illusion of a democratic choice to plebes. But sometimes the reality breaks through seemingly impenetrable barriers of BS, demagoguery, gaslighting and beaten to death economic tropes (how about the US economy being "first in the world") and even fraudsters cannot continue to deny it. 

FRANKFURT/LEUNA, Germany, May 16 (Reuters) - RWE (RWEG.DE) has opened an account in Russia to pay for gas in euros, a spokesperson for Germany's largest power producer said, preparing to meet Moscow's demands for a new payment scheme ahead of a closely-watched deadline later this month. Germany's economy minister Robert Habeck also sounded an optimistic note, saying the new method, which has led to confusion among European gas buyers and raised concerns about possible supply disruptions, would not cause any problems.

This is yet another one who did so and the list of EU "customers" opening those accounts is growing. Now even complete morons from European Commission, who helped to ruin European economy, cannot deny reality.

The country’s export earnings are expected to surge thanks to high prices and strong demand for commodities. “This will enable the government to support the ruble, vulnerable groups and the economy, limiting the decline in real GDP to 10.4% in 2022,” the report says. The EC predicts the Russian economy to stabilize as soon as in 2023, as the country is expected to adjust to the new reality. At the same time, GDP growth is projected to remain restrained next year, amounting to 1.5%, since the ongoing import substitution evoked by the departure of foreign businesses will not be effective enough.

Truth is, ANY, I underscore it--ANY info and conclusions on Russian economy from Western rating agencies, economic forecast and accounting firms, international banks and orgs are absolutely worthless, because the framework within which this whole well oiled machine of selling economic BS to Wall Street operates is totally removed from the economic reality on the ground which is much more complex than just debit-credit ledger or reports (always wrong and under reporting) on inflation. 

Yet, this news is as important, if not more, than any events on the ground in Russian SMO in Ukraine, because it is this geopolitical and geoeconomic background against which the war progresses in 404. For dopamine-dependent armchair "strategists", gamers and military porn masturbators, who need their daily doze of destruction, death and combat observed from afar, this news, same as such as news as Kherson Oblast already confirming its intent to become Russia's region (in Russian), same goes for Zaporzhskaya Oblast and other regions of primarily Southern Ukraine and this time, in 2022, not least through a windfall of cash due to dramatic rise in prices of resources, even against the background of overall combined West's economic decline. In the end, one may live just fine without new (and overpriced) junk of iPhone or new, also overpriced, brand hand bag, one cannot live without heat, electricity and food, despite Western economists trying to convince other people that one can. But even they now surrendered to a grim reality of doing as Russia tells them to do and it really hurts the pitiful remains of their self-respect. 

Plus, of course, the beginning of the process of surrender of Nazis, mercenaries and VSU blocked before that for month at the Azov Steel (recall how many "analysts" were crying foul when Putin ordered to simply seal off this plant?) does not add to already grim mood in the West (not to mention the remnants of 404) and even regurgitating military fakes from 404 does nothing to improve it. As you all know, I am not really interested in all this "tactical" minutiae of SMO (I leave that and deriving BS conclusions from it to all those Podolyaka, Kotenok, Cassad and other benefactors of monetization of their militarily illiterate crap) but insights, especially through VSU foreign mercenaries and Nazi POWs, provide a glimpse into the kitchen of Ukie resistance. Here is one (in Russian) among many thousands of other POWs. 

He complains that Polish and American mercenaries treated VSU badly, ate and drunk much better than VSU regulars, never sharing really, and, in general, used VSU personnel as their maids. Ladi-fucking-da, and what did they expect? For NATO people VSU are subhumans given only enough equipment and training to kill Russians (civilians primarily). No wonder all those NATO "heroes" evaporate once they smell the start of the real battle, not the safari-type hunting on Rooskies. Indeed, those damn Rooskies have tanks, artillery and high precision weapons--not a TOE all those NATO people used to facing in war. 

While I radically disagree with Rostislav Ischenko that Russia didn't expect 404 resistance--this is not how military planning on a strategic and operational level works and how decision trees are acted upon--but even he, and he surely knows 404 orders of magnitude better than me, had to admit (in Russian) that disintegration of VSU has begun, and even the latest about the removal of Ukies' big honcho of Territorial Defense (battalions) which continue to sustain appalling losses on the front, is another indication of the ongoing implosion. Again, Austin didn't call Shoigu to talk pleasantries, he demanded the immediate "cease fire". I also radically disagree with Ischenko on his interpretation of the American aims in 404, but Ischenko is not a military man and he doesn't know the US that well. So, here is your primer for Monday and we need to be patient.

The Technology Of Sacrifice.

On the altar of "democracy" and globalism--a euphemism for being eaten by the US. Here is the excerpt from my latest book:

In December of 2019 the cost of $0.38 per kWh (kiloWatthour) of electricity for an average German household was the second highest in the world, after Bermuda. For comparison, the same kWh in the United States cost $0.14, and in Russia—$0.06. For businesses, Germany’s price for kWh was $0.23—the highest among developed nations, with the United States at $0.11. Russia was at $0.08; China was at $0.10. The conclusion thus is inevitable. Given that Germany has the highest energy costs in the world for a developed industrial economy the prospects for Germany’s survival as a totally independent competitive advanced economy look increasingly slim, once one considers not only Germany’s energy policy but that of the EU as a whole, which among competent industrial and energy professionals creates a sense of bewilderment. 

It is 2021 now and Electric Rate website updated today (or yesterday) gives pretty much the same spread which looks like this: 

Well, pretty much all of the EU is in this table (see the rest of it on the website) and, inevitably, the greener they will become less competitive (not that EU can produce a bargain anymore) and, thus, survivable they will be. The US, in this particular case, is having a moment of schadenfreude, because it still hasn't been completely "democratized" by democrats, and at this stage GOP being utterly corrupt and in the pockets of a big oil is a...good thing.  For now. Not that the US is far behind, but at least it has more resources to avoid going full blown "back to caves" mode and it is still--you die today, I--tomorrow. Strategically, the United States will be happy to see Germany depart as an economic power because that opens opportunities for the United States in Europe. From resources to commodities. Even under the most favorable conditions Germany's energy costs were enormous (both for population and businesses). But if we begin to look at a broader picture, which is a production of some key materials which are crucial for advanced manufacturing, we may stumble on Germany's by far not impressive position. Here is steel production: 

Here is production of aluminum:

Once you begin to view things within the framework of physical economy, the trend of West's economic decline becomes visible. Here is another one:

And we can do this until hell freezes over while repeating meaningless mantras about Germany's "export-oriented economy", we have to understand that the times of the chimera of the Free Trade are over and appropriate adjustment of the economies is happening right now. For Western leaders brought up on the primarily Anglo-Saxon economic economic ideas--ideas generated by the sea-faring island nations insulated for the calamities of Continental politics, including catastrophic warfare--the awakening is going to be dramatic in terms of the levels of pain. And you should remember that for the last 7 years I am constantly on record--they are incompetent and cannot grasp the ideas behind main engines of a colossal geopolitical realignment and power re-balancing.  Sorry, they are just that ignorant.  Recall that:

Our Elites Couldn’t ‘Reset’ a Wall Outlet, Let Alone the Global Economy

I wrote on that issue not for once, including on reset. But I might as well say it straight why this is happening--office plankton cannot govern, period. It is especially incapable of governing in times of great change. The idea that some SOB Ph.D. in political science or law, who reads WSJ can have a grasp of a modern world is down right preposterous, as Western "academe" and political class prove it time after time, day after day. The West is run by a collective Fukuyama. And that is both the diagnosis and the indictment. EU is about to feel the heat, or, rather, lack of it and maybe reconcile itself to the idea that it is not what it thinks it is. As per US--there are certain benefits to the position of the superpower, but judging by the US political discourse those benefits will be squandered. No surprise here.

Geopolitcal Dreams.

I am in the open for years with my position on the American geopolitical "school of thought" as being extremely weak, if not outright delusional in the last 20 years or so. It is not surprising, once one considers what kind of "scholars" from Kissinger to Fukuyama, to late Brzezinski shaped it in the last decades. US geopolitical "scholars" suffer from serious ailment which remains treatment-resistant since Vietnam and has two major traits:

1. A severe lack of awareness of own country, United States that is, its dynamics, real state of its power and its economy;

2. Chronic inability to account for military power element in shaping geopolitical reality;

Now, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) issued, yet another, grand strategy vision on how the United States needs to deal with China and, in this document, provides 22 "prescriptions" of sorts on how to handle China's rise. Ironically (I deliberately start with Conclusion) in document's Conclusion author(s) of this vision admit(s):

Some of these suggested policy proposals are familiar and have been debated in recent public discourse. Thus, prescriptive familiarity is increasingly not the problem with respect to U.S. policies toward China and Asia writ large. Rather, it is that most such efforts have seen too little connection to U.S. grand strategy, too little conceptual integration, too little policy intensity, and too little policy follow-through. As Leonardo da Vinci supposedly stressed, “I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.”

Hey, how about putting this not into the Conclusion but in the Preface section. This immediately brought back Admiral Sergei Gorshkov's sardonic quote:"The main problem with Americans is that they do not follow their own doctrines." It applies fully here. Before any usage of terms such as "diplomacy", "agreements" or "policy" among many others it has to be admitted that US has no competent diplomacy as such, any agreement with United States is not worth the paper it is printed on and policy, as in sane and implementable, is not something current US "elites" are capable of developing, no matter number of allegedly serious "academic" papers on any of these issues. But since CFR IS a part of the so called "Deep State" and passes in the US as a main brain behind US so called foreign policy, it is worth the effort of looking into the "prescriptions" CFR offers to place in the foundation of the US "grand strategy" towards China. 

I neither have time nor, frankly, desire to go over all 22 of those prescriptions, so I choose only ones which are notable. Before I start, however, I need to congratulate the US "grand strategy" of 1970s through 2010s which succeeded in the largest technology and industry transfer from one country (USA) to another (PRC) in history. So, the United States has only itself to blame for building China's industrial might, while destroying own one, and turning China into global manufacturing superpower. Now, let's go. 

1. The United States should mobilize all instruments of its national power to skillfully manage its economy; modernize its basic infra-structure; reform its immigration system; reduce its entitlement spending; rehabilitate the structure and quality of its education system; and address the serious political, economic, and societal divisions within the country. The U.S. contest with China over Implementing Grand Strategy Toward China international power and influence is likely to be decades long; a prosperous and well-functioning United States is the first requirement to ensure that Washington is well positioned not to lose that competition. Nevertheless, there is no need for strategic defeatism. The United States certainly has the resources to seriously deal with its domestic weaknesses, if it has the political and societal will.

My Comment. First, I do not only not believe, I know for a fact that US public education, especially on a public school level, is done. It cannot be "reformed" because it is primarily an indoctrination tool for increasingly dysfunctional American culture with STEM education being in a state of a permanent disaster. These are not just my ideas, no. This is clearly stated here:

Some of the most challenging aspects in the manufacturing sector are recruitment and retention. In a recent manufacturing skills gap study conducted by the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte, only one third of respondents indicated they would encourage their children to pursue a career in manufacturing.Gen Y (ages 19-33 years) respondents ranked manufacturing as their least preferred career destination. Yet once a candidate is hired, the struggle continues. 79% of executives surveyed stated it is moderate to extremely challenging to find candidates to pass screening and/or the probationary period, leaving them with employees unable to perform the work for which they were hired.While the total number of bachelor’s degrees in the U.S. has increased steadily in the last two decades, the number of STEM degrees conferred in the U.S. still pales compared to China.123In addition, the U.S. has seen an increase in students on temporary visas, many of whom would be unable to gain the security clearances needed to work in the defense ecosystem. Growth in advanced science and engineering degrees shows the U.S. graduating the largest number of doctorate recipients of any individual country, but 37% were earned by temporary visa holders125with as many 25% of STEM graduates in the U.S. being Chinese nationals      

We discussed this before. STEM is hard, drama, poetry and hi-school football are fun and easy. As I repeat ad nauseam, it is not just some basic PISA rankings which matter (US is last there among most developed nations), it is a volume and complexity of knowledge in school which student receives, which matters. And here is what Forbes writes:

How bad is the shortage of American students? According to the non-partisan National Foundation for American Policy, in 2017 foreign nationals accounted for 81% of electrical engineering majors and grad students in this country. Foreign students make up three quarters of the majors and grad students in industrial engineering; 62% in mechanical engineering; 55%, or more than half, of those studying materials and metallurgic engineering. As for computer science, the vital crucible for America’s future in areas such as cyber and AI, American students make up barely 21% of the student body.

The United States either fixes its schools, which by now is almost impossible without tearing the whole system down, or, well--no amount of money can save a system which is wound up to produce politically correct mediocrities who will find jobs only in non-productive sectors, unless they go into some trade or do try (fewer and fewer of them) to get themselves into STEM programs in the colleges and universities. I simply cannot see this happening, especially in the nation increasingly legalizing pot. Education catastrophe alone, even without considering a catastrophic de-industrialization of the United States, is serious enough argument for doubting such a wishful thinking having any base in the reality. Once REAL economies of the United States and China are compared, one gets a good feel of the abyss which separates two nations, with China's real economy dwarfing that of the United States. 

2. The United States should protect the integrity of its democratic institutions, both for the good of the nation and to offer a powerful alternative model to China’s authoritarian archetype.

My Comment. This one is easy to comment on and it shows CFR's people complete lack of contact with the reality, a global one. Should they have been decent analysts who study the world, they would have noticed by now, that using term "democratic institutions" and the United States in the same sentence is akin to using "moral" while describing a pedophile or a serial murderer. Funny, but I can see many in China still exercising some illusions on the issue of "democratic institutions", but in very many other nations of the world the United States is viewed mostly as a rogue nation and a corrupt oligarchy in the process of tearing itself apart in public. US political elites are corrupted to the core and the world at large can see proofs of that everyday in the news. I am sorry to break the news, but the United States cannot provide any "alternative model" at all. I guess if "impeachment spectacle" and elites which produce specimens such as Adam Schiff or Mike Pompeo are capable of offering "alternative models", these are not the models which will sell. 

3. The United States, in coordination with allies, should attempt to initiate an extended conversation with Vladimir Putin and the Russian government on world order and the security of Europe and Asia. Zbigniew Brzezinski, in analyzing threats to the United States, warned that “the most dangerous scenario [would be] a grand coalition of China and Russia . . . united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.” In particular, Russia would surely consider moving further into Ukraine in the event of a full-blown U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan.

My Comment. LOL! No, really, LOL. They do not even understand that their problem IS Brzezinski and his ideas, but let's be specific here. The United States has NO geopolitical currency or resources for "extended conversation" with Vladimir Putin because Russians have an extraordinarily good idea about US actual, very limited, real power and resources, and militarily Russia is not really in the mood to discuss anything unless the United States is ready to give back what Russia wants. The US is not ready and, in fact, it is non-agreement capable. Moreover, if people from CFR didn't notice yet, Russia not only doesn't need Ukraine, Russia doesn't want it--who needs millions of freeloaders may of who, in addition, hate you? Ukraine was EU-US "operation", so let them deal and pay for this bloody mess. I know, all those US "plans" to get Russia involved directly and make Russia spend valuable strategic resources on a shithole of a country, such as Ukraine, I can only imagine when the reality started to dawn on the students of Brzezinski that all those plans were, as always, wishful thinking detached from the reality. Ukraine is a toxic asset and Russia is not going to pay for it. Plus, Russians have a good memory and Gorbachev who sought, by means of betraying historic Russia national interests, integration into West is universally hated and despised person in Russia. As they say: take a hint. Donbas, that is a separate matter.

The rest of the document is same ol', same ol' wishful thinking par excellence but also a good indicator of a profound crisis of ideas and knowledge US foreign "policy" elite finds itself in, because of arrogance, ignorance and inability to learn. In this respect, though, the fact that they try to formulate something not overtly militarily aggressive is already some progress. But, in the end, all this "grand strategy" is a classic example of too little, too late for the world in which the United States is not anymore an unquestionable (self-proclaimed) hegemon but just another great power (for now) which will have to find its peaceful place in the new world order or face further decline and fading into irrelevance. For finding itself in this position, the United States has only itself and its geopolitical dreams to blame.