Those Who Planned...

 ... this FUBAR in Kursk for VSU--some even state that the whole idea originated in London, not surprising then with the level of UK's military--was obviously planned by amateurs. You see, they are still obsessed with operational indices, such as the length (range) of advance, the speed of advance and other purely Hollywood representations of war taken out of serious operational context and real military science. Well, you remember this, I recon...

The American Army as it is now exists could beat the Russians with the greatest of ease, because while the Russians have good infantry, they are lacking in artillery, air and in tanks, and in knowledge of the use of combined arms, whereas we excel in all three of these...

This is from Patton's diary in 1945. This is also the guy who never fought first rate Wehrmacht at the height of its strength and who faced in Lorraine... 10 German tanks. Who also completely made up a story of his "rivalry" with another propaganda inflated average commander such as Rommel. Not to mention, of course, him and his media chihuahuas taking credit for Ardennes and as the foreword to his diary states:

The creeping arrogance, the hubris, which would cost the American Army so dearly in Vietnam. Summing up the achievements of his troops in crushing the German counterattack of December 1944, Patton with pardonable pride claims to have “moved farther and faster and engaged more divisions in less time than any other army in the history of the United States—possibly in the history of the world... No country can stand against such an Army.” These memoirs are valuable not least in showing, however unwittingly, that a disastrous presumption of invincibility took root in the ranks of officers who led the American military after World War II. 

So, there you have it, pure delusion, with, obviously, people like Zhukov, Rokossovsky, Konev, Vasilevsky or Tolbukhin among many others, should they have been alive, having a Homeric laughter from the statements from a man who is venerated in the US Army as someone of a huge import in warfare, while being known primarily for his big mouth and outlandish claims. So, in the end, VSU lost by different estimates around 10-11 thousand its "best" troops, who encountered a real army. 

The result was expected--Ukie propaganda, while those "groups" who survived initially are now, also as was expected, corralled into the pockets within forests (zelenka as it is known in Russia) and being methodically annihilated, while some groups which are still loose in near border localities are being hunted down and killed. They never controlled anything more than at best 100-120 square kilometers of terrain with some hamlets (now it is reduced to low tens square kilometers at the most) and those "indices" mean nothing when the main task of the war on operational and tactical level, unlike it is the case with strategic Clausewitzian truism that the main object of war is to compel the enemy to do our will, is to KILL the opposition's armed force as much as possible. Russians are really good at it. In fact, they are the best in history. 

But, but, as I am record--once one begins to learn the military history based on Patton and Rommel, one is bound to lose its wars. Not to mention the fact that Russia finally paid serious attention to this "military bloggers" sewer and even shitty British propagandists from tabloid Moscow Times had to admit:

Russians are having a field day today with memes, which may have something to do with reality, that Ukrops got into Kursk Oblast to steal toilets, microwaves and washing machines;)) 

Now a sort of a trivial pursuit... Name which physical advantages--the only one that matter in the end--the US Army, as described in Field Manual 3-0, Operation, 2022, holds over Russians;): Position, Range, Speed of movement, Technologically superior capabilities, Terrain and weather. Good luck locating them;)

It Is Not Really The News...

 ... but still, it is worth reminding...

СИМФЕРОПОЛЬ, 20 апр – РИА Новости. Депутат Госдумы от крымского региона, генерал-майор запаса Леонид Ивлев заявил, что удары украинских войск по территории России планируются в НАТО под руководством США. Ранее генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил, что Украина имеет право наносить удары по военным целям на территории России, назвав такие удары легитимными. ... по его словам, именно натовские генералы в Монсе под Брюсселем проводят командно-штабные игры в интересах ВСУ на картах российских регионов - Крыма, ДНР, ЛНР, Белгородской и Брянской и других областей и выдают потом рекомендации главкому ВСУ Александру Сырскому. "Именно на авиабазе Рамштайн натовские инструкторы обучают летчиков "повитряных" (воздушных – ред.) сил и специалистов ПВО Украины, а на танковых полигонах НАТО солдаты ВСУ обкатывают Abrams и Leopard", - сказал депутат. 

Translate: SIMFEROPOL, April 20 – RIA Novosti. State Duma deputy from the Crimean region, reserve major general Leonid Ivlev said that attacks by Ukrainian troops on Russian territory are planned by NATO under the leadership of the United States. Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine has the right to strike military targets on Russian territory, calling such strikes legitimate. ... according to him, it is NATO generals in Mons near Brussels who conduct command and staff games in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on maps of Russian regions - Crimea, DPR, LPR, Belgorod and Bryansk and other regions and then issue recommendations to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky. “It is at the Ramstein airbase that NATO instructors train air force pilots and air defense specialists of Ukraine, and at NATO tank training grounds, Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers test Abrams and Leopards,” the deputy said.

 

Ivlev says nothing new, including the locations where this planning--in NATO planning comes down to designation of the target(s) in some third world locality and bomb it with impunity--is taking place, which is NATO generals hiding behind the backs of hapless VSU cannon fodder. In reality, of course, real operational planning of such level is beyond the capabilities of Pentagon and its uniformed lapdogs from Europe. Remarkably, they also cannot learn anything due to a growing technological gap between Russian Armed Forces and the best NATO can offer. No matter how skillful one could be tactically, but overcoming technological lag in 21st century is nothing like doing the same in the middle of the 20th one. And then, of course, there are operations and strategy. 

 

Meanwhile, as much as Baerbock is stupid she pressed the right point:  

МОСКВА, 20 апреля/ Радио Sputnik. Премьер-министр Израиля Биньямин Нетаньяху повысил голос при обсуждении с главой МИД ФРГ Анналеной Бербок ситуации в секторе Газа и напомнил ей о действиях нацистов, сообщил израильский Channel 13. Бербок предложила Нетаньяху взглянуть на фотографии голодающих палестинских детей, передает РИА Новости сообщение телеканала. В ответ глава правительства Израиля рассказал ей о снимках, сделанных на рынках и пляжах Газы, намекая на недостоверность информации, которой располагает глава МИД Германии, говорится в публикации. Тогда Анналена Бербок заявила, что израильскому кабмину не следует распространять подобные фото, поскольку они не отражают реальную ситуацию. После этого, по данным Channel 13, Биньямин Нетаньяху повысил голос и напомнил главе МИД ФРГ о действиях нацистов. "Это реальность. Это не похоже на то, что инсценировали нацисты, мы не похожи на нацистов, которые создавали сфабрикованные изображения фальшивой реальности", – сказал он. Посол Германии в Израиле Штеффен Зайберт назвал приведенные телеканалом подробности встречи неверными и вводящими в заблуждение, отмечает РИА Новости.

Translate: MOSCOW, April 20/ Radio Sputnik. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised his voice when discussing the situation in the Gaza Strip with German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock and reminded her of the actions of the Nazis, reported the Israeli Channel 13. Bärbock suggested Netanyahu look at photographs of starving Palestinian children, RIA Novosti reported. In response, the head of the Israeli government told her about the photographs taken in the markets and beaches of Gaza, hinting at the unreliability of the information held by the German Foreign Minister, the publication says. Then Annalena Berbock said that the Israeli Cabinet should not distribute such photos, since they do not reflect the real situation. After this, according to Channel 13, Benjamin Netanyahu raised his voice and reminded the German Foreign Minister about the actions of the Nazis. "This is reality. This is not like what the Nazis staged, we are not like the Nazis who created fabricated images of a false reality," he said. German Ambassador to Israel Steffen Seibert called the details of the meeting provided by the TV channel incorrect and misleading, RIA Novosti notes.

 

Well, at this stage Holocaust "defense" is the only thing Israel has left. 

The photo speaks volumes. When you cannot fight a real war, this is what is left for them, both NATO and Israel--fight a media one.

About T-90M, Again.

TASS reports about the combat use of T-90Ms Proryv in SMO, and quotes tank commanders about the machine (in Russian), They love it. Here are some opinions on a several months long combat use.

Он усовершенствован - экипаж надежно защищен, командир танка, то есть я, сижу уже внутри, мне необязательно вылезать на улицу, перезаряжать [пулемет] "Корд" и вести стрельбу - я все это делаю изнутри. Усовершенствованы приборы наблюдения, у меня есть панорама, я могу смотреть на 360 градусов и не надо крутить головой, я все могу на компьютере увидеть. Также могу общаться с соседними танками, не выходя на связь, просто пишу им координаты, подъезжаем туда и мы вместе работаем. У нас Т-90 подорвался на противотанковой мине, гусеницу не повредило, оторвало лишь каток и он своим ходом выбыл из зоны боевых действий, весь экипаж цел", - рассказал командир еще одного танка Т-90М "Прорыв" Руслан.

Translation: It has been improved - the crew is reliably protected, the tank commander, that is, I am already sitting inside, I don’t have to get out into the street, reload the Kord [machine gun] and fire - I do all this from the inside. Surveillance devices have been improved, I have a panorama, I can look at 360 degrees and do not need to turn my head, I can see everything on the computer. I can also communicate with neighboring tanks without getting in touch, I just write the coordinates to them, we drive up there and we work together. Our T-90 was blown up by an anti-tank mine, the track was not damaged, only the roller was torn off and it left the combat zone under its own power, the entire crew was intact," said the commander of another T-90M "Proryv" tank Ruslan.

I highlighted what is crucial. This is netcentricity and this is the thing which in terms of firepower creates a synergy effect because it increases many fold the effect of tactical surprise and flexibility. All this underscores the futility of the West's attempts to "supply" 404 with whatever obsolete armor it tries to send there. Such as this risible British attempt:

Britain will announce the donation of ten Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, The Guardian reported on Friday, citing Ukrainian sources. In doing so, the UK would become the first NATO member to send Western-designed tanks to Kiev, as pressure mounts on Germany to follow suit. A formal announcement is expected on Monday, the newspaper’s sources said. These same sources said that while ten Challengers will likely have no impact on the tide of battle, they hope the decision will push Germany into allowing its European allies to export their stocks of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which Berlin has thus far not authorized.

Considering military incompetence of the Western political and military top brass, it all comes down to, and you guessed it already, PR and desire to show that "something is being done". I expand on the issue of West's miscalculations in my latest:

Plus, a good friend of mine, Colonel Trukhan (thanks, Larch), a former operations officer from the Central Apparatus of Russian MoD gave a good interview to (initially) Ukraina.Ru, precisely on the issues concerning a real war, not BS created by all kinds of media-personalities both in the West and Russia who wouldn't be able to command a platoon, let alone brigade or division. Here is a quote:

- Делайте что хотите. Хотите наслаждаться победой – наслаждайтесь. Хотите комментировать не восторженно – комментируйте. Кто кому доктор, каждый сам на свое кладбище выползет. Нужно понимать, что ВС РФ работают планомерно и целенаправленно. А публика может реагировать как хочет. Там мощные укрепрайоны, которые строились восемь лет. Почему мы дали их построить? А кто бы им их не дал построить? Мы не одни на этом земном шаре. Мы строили свои вооруженные силы, Украина строила свои вооруженные силы. У кого их получилось лучше построить? Посмотрим.

В 2014 году на тех украинских операционных направлениях мы почти ничего не имели. Это я вам достоверно говорю. Об этом никто сейчас не помнит, но при Сердюкове даже 20-ую армию сократили, был переход к бригадным системам. И когда начался этот замес, когда наш "северный ветер" остановил этот начинавшийся геноцид, мы начали строить свои вооруженные силы абсолютно правильно. Мы их начали строить со стратегической ядерной триады. Путин "мультики" показал – продажи памперсов возросли. И сейчас эти "мультики" получили материальное оформление.

Translation: - Do what you want. If you want to enjoy victory, enjoy. If you want to comment not enthusiastically - comment. Who is a doctor to whom, everyone will crawl out to his own cemetery. You need to understand that the RF Armed Forces are working systematically and purposefully. The public can react however they want. There are powerful fortified areas that were built for eight years. Why did we let them build? And who wouldn't let them build them? We are not alone on this globe. We built our armed forces, Ukraine built its armed forces. Who was the best at building them? We will see. In 2014, we had almost nothing in those Ukrainian operational areas. This I tell you for sure. Nobody remembers this now, but under Serdyukov even the 20th army was reduced, there was a transition to brigade systems. And when this batch began, when our "northern wind" stopped this genocide that was beginning, we began to build our armed forces absolutely correctly. We started building them from the strategic nuclear triad. Putin "cartoons" showed - sales of diapers have increased. And now these "cartoons" have received material design.

I am on record, remember? US and NATO cannot do strategy, they never could after WW II. It is a cold hard fact of life. Sure, they love to use the term "strategy" but very few in the military-political top in the US have a grasp of what it is. So, what can I say--I already get flack for my pointing out that John Mearsheimer has no clue about strategy, Russia and balance of power--he doesn't have a tool set, as wouldn't any political "scientist", to grasp it. His early 1970s background from USMA at West Point and a few years in the USAF are radically not enough, especially lacking serious military engineering background, for understanding modern operations. Bernhard makes today a note of it, when speaking about Emmanuel Todd:

He however has some criticism for Mearsheimer: "Mearsheimer, like a good American, overestimates his country. He considers that, if for the Russians the war in Ukraine is existential, for the Americans it is basically only one 'game' of power among others. After Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, what's one more debacle? The basic axiom of American geopolitics is: 'We can do whatever we want because we are sheltered, far away, between two oceans, nothing will ever happen to us'. Nothing would be existential for America. Insufficient analysis which today leads Biden to proceed mindlessly. America is fragile. The resistance of the Russian economy is pushing the American imperial system towards the precipice. No one had expected that the Russian economy would hold up against the 'economic power' of NATO. I believe that the Russians themselves did not anticipate it.

Remarkably, highlighted in yellow shows a complete ignorance of Todd himself of strategic planning and how Russia approaches war and economy. But then again, he is an anthropologist, what do you expect. He, certainly, didn't read this blog in 2014--early 2015 when I had to pass a diagnosis on the fate of the combined West, but what do I know, I am not anthropologist. So, here is your primer for Saturday. 

P.S. About VSU plans for "offensive" to reach Mariupol--Good God, only NYT and WSJ would buy this BS. Yes, with 50 Bradleys and 20 NATO tanks. 

Have Some Class.

No matter how one views British Royalty, but one fact cannot be denied, in the times of British politics turning into the tawdry freak-show, Elizabeth II was projecting what is sorely lacking today both in UK and in the West--the class. We can give her that, at least. Not to mention the fact of many Brits sincerely loving her. So, the Queen is dead, long live the King. But, of course, the death of Elizabeth II has a very strange unintended consequences for... Ukraine. Kiev regime is dependent on Western media publicity and, in fact, is in serious business (together with major Western media outlets) of faking most of it military "victories" which then are used as the only argument in Kiev's begging the combined West for weapons and money. But Queen's death definitely removes Ukraine (for now) to the status of secondary issues. This photo also speaks volumes:

Rest in Peace, Your Majesty!

But in Ukraine news this is what Blinken "brought" to Kiev.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has pledged another $2.2 billion in long-term military financing to Ukraine and 18 neighbor states and territories “potentially at risk of future Russian aggression,” pending approval by Congress, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed on Thursday during an unannounced visit to Kiev. Blinken met with President Vladimir Zelensky and other senior officials to discuss the details of the $2.2 billion package, of which $1 billion will go to Ukraine. The rest will be divided among “regional security partners” in order to help them “deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity” through strengthening their coordination with NATO and combating “Russian influence and aggression,” according to the State Department.

Blinken, being a complete moron militarily, did this:

Blinken hailed the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” against Russian forces in the south as “effective,” calling it a “pivotal moment” for Kiev, while Zelensky thanked the visiting diplomat for “this enormous support that you’re providing on a day to day basis.”  

And he is absolutely correct, since, granted that the average attention span of armchair strategists is about that of an aquarium fish, VSU's offensive was effective in terms of disposing of many thousands VSU personnel killed, and even more wounded, not counting the hardware lost. The new number which begins circulating now re: VSU KIAs is huge--up to 10,000 KIAs. Confirmed number of wounded in Krivoy Rog hospitals--mind you, it is more than 150 kilometers from the battle area--was in excess of 3,500. Hospitals in much closer Nikolaev were overflowing with thousands of wounded. Same goes for Odessa hospitals, but hey, at least they hoisted a flag over hospital in Vysokopolie. Same pattern, now in different terrain, repeats itself in Kharkov oblast. 

For two days now Telegram Channels manned mostly by military ignoramuses scream about doom for Balakleya. Sure, it may even fall. But here is Apti Alaudinov, the commander of Kadyrov formations (Akhmat) today:

«То, что сегодня происходит, было запланировано. Это является тактической уловкой, которая нам помогла вытащить все их силы и средства на территорию, где нам с ними удобно воевать»

Translation: “What is happening today was planned. This is a tactical ploy that helped us to pull all their forces and means to the territory where it is convenient for us to fight with them.

But, of course, what this courageous and shrewd tactician in command of a large formation really knows compared to those Telegram Channels "analysts". Moreover, I stumbled today into new military "profundity". I will not say where, but get this--one moron concluded that total physical annihilation of enemy's personnel and hardware is not enough for victory. Right, you need the photo of the flag over some building and then the victory is complete. Meanwhile Milley, together with Pentagon, continue to live in alternative universe and continue to embarrass US Armed Forces. 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley confirmed Thursday that Ukraine has officially launched a major counteroffensive on its 1,500-mile-long front lines in a move to repel Russian forces from its borders. "At the beginning of this month, on or about the first of September, Ukraine launched an offensive in order to seize operational and strategic initiative. That offensive is ongoing," Milley told reporters from Ramstein Air Base, Germany. "That offensive is in its early stages." Milley said it was too early to provide an assessment of how Ukraine is progressing, though reporting this week has suggested that Ukrainian forces made some operational advances in the Kharkiv region in the north as well as the Kherson region in the south. 

Evidently, Milley and JCS have a very vague understanding of modern warfare and offensive operations, not to speak of scales, but while Milley was delivering this BS to Rammstein format "conference". Kadyrov people entered Soledar and solidify their hold on it (in Russian). And that is another thing which has to be kept in mind--I am officially now on record--SMO's result is a complete destruction of any remaining reputation of the American ground warfare "school". US is DIRECTLY (together with London) is involved into C4ISR of VSU. Or, as Russian Permanent Representative at UN Nebenzya stated today (in Russian): NATO literally runs the war in Ukraine in manual mode. Considering the fact of the West's (primarily US) "glorious" ground war history, it is not surprising that the only effect American generals can achieve is the one in PR arena. They are desperate for a number of purely "professional" reasons, those reasons being the modern US military history where it lost all of its wars after 1953. With the exception of grand operation in Grenada and turkey shoot in Iraq. 

So, what's the real deal, then, in Kharkov oblast? I think we will see similar developments as it was in Kherson with that difference that this time VSU losses will be even more terrifying. Have patience and do not read telegram channels if you really want to follow events as they unfold operationally, and strategically. And pay attention to the increased activity of IPSO assets on all media platforms--it is the only type of warfare the combined West knows how to conduct. The rest? Well, as Andrei Raevsky yesterday astutely pointed out:

First, this how Hollywood and the mainstream media present defense: you stand and fight, and if the enemy overruns your defensive position, you lost. The reality could not be further from this silly notion.For one thing, the USA never fought a real war, nevermind a defensive one.

Couldn't have said better myself. Meanwhile Russian Army reserves are pouring into Kharkov oblast (in Russian) and something tells me that this is just the start of the slaughter of VSU which will make even Kherson "offensive" pale in comparison.

If True...

...which I believe it is, it merely confirms what I increasingly begin to state openly--combined arms operations incompetence:

American officials helped prepare the Ukrainian military for its counteroffensive against Russian forces in the south of the country, CNN claimed on Thursday, citing anonymous sources. In its article, the US outlet alleged that this assistance included joint “war-gaming” analytical exercises designed to help the Ukrainians get a clear picture of how much personnel and hardware they would need in different scenarios. US officials, meanwhile, reportedly were able to better understand what kind of equipment, munitions or intelligence Washington could offer to Kiev. According to the report, which cites multiple US and Western officials and also Ukrainian sources, Washington had suggested that Kiev should keep its counteroffensive focused solely on the Kherson region in the south of the country as opposed to trying to strike on multiple fronts, which had supposedly been the Ukrainians’ initial plan.

I don't know who "calculated" this ever important and defining thing--a required force (наряд сил)--for this "counter-offensive", but whoever it was, or were, they have huge issues with operational planning and with math, in terms of stating conception, objectives (task) and criteria of effectiveness by which to judge the outcome, which, now we all know. Evidently, as it follows from CNN report, the unnamed (of course) US "sources" still think that:

Among the factors that have allegedly tipped the scale more in Ukraine’s favor recently, the anonymous officials named the delivery of sophisticated Western weaponry, including the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as supposed hostility toward Russian troops among large swaths of the population in Russia-controlled regions of the country. The latter, according to CNN, has been translating into guerilla-style attacks, assassinations and sabotage efforts behind Russian lines.

You cannot fix stupid and amateur, and that is how US (and Western, in general) "aid" to Kiev regime increasingly looks like. But I have been at it for such a long time that there is no need to dwell on this yet again. The conclusion is simple and self-evident--those who "plan" these "operations" for VSU are the same people who ended up having lied and, finally, had their ass handed to them by a ragtag Taliban in Afghanistan and elsewhere. You cannot expect a serious combined arms operations of scale and scope of SMO ability from the military which primarily fought COIN throughout its modern existence. Granted, that North Vietnamese were more than just very skillful guerrillas, those guys also knew how to fight a good fight with serious weapons. 

I am sure that this whole FUBAR with this "counter-offensive" which ended in a disaster, and pathetic attempts to sabotage IAEA visit to Zaprorozhie by trying to insert there two saboteur groups, which now have been annihilated, bear all hallmarks of the American "combined arms" planning which is primarily based around PR for the domestic consumption provided by pliable US media and have very little practical output in reality. In the end, even WaPo had enough with this "planning".  Now add here a procurement failure by Pentagon ranging from losing its industrial base to a perverted practices of R&D ranging from disasters with LCS, F-35 to a dismal performance of the US-made battlefield weapons, and one begins to get the impression about what constantly goes wrong. This also explains a desperation from seeing West's best proxy ever being annihilated in industrial quantities by a fraction of Russian Armed Forces. 

For the environment of America's top political echelon over-saturated with political "scientists", climate "experts" and lawyers it is impossible to explain, to get across the realities of real warfare and views of the nation whose military history simply dwarfs whatever the United States can present as a counter or alternative experience. This is not the reality "the finest fighting force in history" can easily accept, nor, possibly, judging by the spiraling out of control demoralization and declining quality of the force, even comprehend. 

So, I guess classic courses on mathematics, physics, tactics, operations theory and real military history can wait, because nothing "improves lethality" more than proper gender identification and controlling own microaggressions.  

In related news from the real world:

Amid the extreme heat that began on Wednesday and is expected to last until early next week, Californian electricity consumers have been urged not to charge their electric vehicles during peak demand hours to help ease the strain on the state’s electricity grid. Temperatures in California and the West started rising to above 110 degrees F on Wednesday, with the heatwave expected to intensify through the holiday weekend and extend into early next week, the American Public Power Association, which represents public utilities, said.Californians are thus expected to be asked via Flex alerts for voluntary energy conservation during the long weekend, the association added. 

While Russia flatly responded to Washington:

Russia will embargo countries that support the Washington-proposed price cap on its oil, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday. “In my opinion, this is a complete absurdity… To those companies or countries that will impose restrictions, we will not supply our oil and oil products, because we are not going to work under non-market conditions,” he told reporters, commenting on a plan to limit prices on Russian oil currently being discussed by the Group of Seven (G7) countries.

This is the only language combined West understands, this and a credible threat of force. This is why Russia speaks now in broadsides and we ain't seen nothing yet(c).