My Talk Today.

I mentioned Turkey several times in this short talk--I still lack energy but am getting better, but not enough to elaborate on all points. But keep in mind the Turks. 

Erdogan is obsessed with pan-Turkic ideas but he could be reminded really fast that Turkey is still not in the league which allows to form civilizational entities in the 21st century. It is not 14th century. Nowadays it takes a bit more than superficial race commonality to form a "world" of your own. I know most Russians would be horrified by the pan-Slavic ideas today and Russia is much more powerful than Turkey. And I mean much more. Something tells me that very many Turks would rather improve their beautiful country economically and prosper than pursue some geopolitical chimeras.

Drifting Apart.

The moment I wrote two days ago this: 

What most of German politcos fail to understand, of course, is the fact that Russia is not beholden to Germany or Europe. 

Bang! Germany yesterday made her choice. 

Officials in Moscow have issued a sternly-worded ultimatum to YouTube’s parent company, Google, saying the video streaming site could face restrictions after it took down two channels run by RT’s German-language service. In the statement, released on Wednesday morning, the country’s national media regulator, Roskomnadzor, said that it “demands all restrictions be lifted from the YouTube channels RT DE and Der Fehlende Part (DFP), run by the news outlet RT, as soon as possible.”According to the authorities, failure to do so would be a violation of Russian law and, “for such actions, an internet resource can be designated as breaching fundamental human rights and freedoms,” and can face a formal warning.“In the event that the owner of the platform doesn’t comply with the warning, legislation allows us to take measures including completely or partially blocking access to it,” Roskomnadzor added.

I don't know if Germany was forced to do this or not for sure, but I do lean toward the theory that the new incoming powers that be in Germany did it on their own accord, plus do not forget that any European "left" today is anti-Russian by definition for a number of ideological reasons, and when ideology, Atlanticist and globalist one in this case,  is involved one cannot expect rational behavior from those who follow it. As I already stated many times the paths of Russia and combined West are diverging and this process is going to accelerate. In some sense I am glad that Germany's political class and Germany's mostly Goebbelsonean-style media  finally "came out" and that makes many things clearer. 

 

Rostislav Ischenko today came out with a "let me make historic parallels" article, which I have a number of legitimate professional questions to, but describing this Germany's snafu with RT and trying to predict the possible outcome, which will be a further deterioration of relations, which are now going into the open confrontation, he concludes: 

Россия, конечно, в случае обострения тоже потеряет, и немало. Но это будут потери денег и времени — замедлится развитие. Бутерброд придется есть не с черной, а с красной икрой. У Запада же есть хороший шанс понять, что обозначает словосочетание «лихие девяностые». Как показывает практика и опыт, гибридная война даже менее гуманна, чем обычная. Вроде и линий фронтов нет, и зондеркоманды не зверствуют: не ревут танки, не учиняются ковровые бомбардировки, никого не ведут в Бабий Яр, а на обширных территориях десятки миллионов людей куда-то исчезают вместе с экономикой и даже с цивилизацией.

Читать далее: https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20210929/1032346275.html

Translation: Russia, of course, will also lose in the event of an aggravation, and a lot. But this will be merely a waste of money and time - development will slow down. The sandwich will have to be eaten not with black, but with red caviar. The West, on the other hand, has a good chance to understand what the phrase "dashing nineties" means. As practice and experience show, hybrid warfare is even less humane than conventional war. It seems that there are no front lines, and the Sonderkommando do not commit atrocities: tanks do not roar, carpet bombings are not carried out, no one is led to Babi Yar, and in vast territories tens of millions of people disappear somewhere along with the economy and even with civilization.

I do not believe that Berlin has people who can fully grasp what they did, but when Russia's Foreign Ministry uses the language such as this in its official statement:

Дату реализации плана (не хочется думать, что речь идёт об «Инфобарбаросса»), видимо, подбирали с особым цинизмом, учитывая, что 28 сентября отмечается Международный день всеобщего доступа к информации.

Translation:  The date of the plan's implementation (One doesn't want to think that we are talking about Infobarbarossa), apparently, was chosen with special cynicism, given that September 28 is the International Day of Universal Access to Information.

That is ominous. Read the whole statement (use translator)--I haven't read from ever reserved Russian FM such a tone. A year ago, Lavrov already articulated to EU and Germany her real interests when basically told Germany to make her choices.  Recall that:

Those people in the West who are responsible for foreign policy and do not understand the necessity of mutually respectable conversation--well, we must simply stop for a while to communicate with them. Especially since Ursula von der Leyen states that geopolitical partnership with current Russia's leadership is impossible. If this is the way they want it, so be it. 

And that is the way it will be now. And even a rare lucid moment of departing Frau Kanzlerin when it may have gotten to her what I was writing about from the inception of this blog, among relatively recent: 

I mean Frau Kanzlerin begins to suspect that it is not about Russia or "democracy", it is about devouring Western Europe and putting Germany at the altar of America's desperation to preserve an illusion of own hegemony, for just a little bit longer, as a first sacrificial victim. The rest of Europe will follow. Today she figured it out, sort of...  

This is exactly what is transpiring now and Germany made her choice. Of course, Berlin now denies its role in shutting down RT, but knowing who German "elites" are--I would rather negotiate with Taliban and believe them, than any politican from the West. My impression is that the first thing to go will be Deutsche Welle which carries on a proud tradition of Doctor Goebbels and I think that is who should go first. It is a disgusting outlet of the most primitive Russophobic propaganda and, again, let's not go where Ischenko tries to go in his article. Who cares what the Germany's objective interests were when she made decisions time after time against them for whatever reasons: be that Hitler, be that Wilhelm, or Merkel. What matters is that those decisions were made and, as Ischenko himself admits, Russia can live without Germany, the opposite is not true, however, and it is Germany's choice.  It is 2021, not 1914 or 1941. As I write for years, Russia will settle Germans who will be moving to Russia. In the end, Ischenko's article is titled Germany's Third Fateful Mistake. There are NO new Bismarks in Germany.  

But as I repeat all the time: Russia is not a charity and she is not going to become any time soon, especially for those who obviously continue to think that they are indispensable for Russia. This might have been the case 20 years ago but it is 2021, not 2001 today. Siemens learned this reality the hard way. At this stage, Russia has many big fishes to fry and they are not in Europe. They certainly look genuinely joyful today. 

What is the meaning behind this "fruitful meeting" we will learn later indirectly, but Turkey does move closer to Russia even without the usual media spin. Erdogan is a shrewd politician and knows where the future is. 

Is Hungary An Example...

...of what pragmatic non-ideological approach to foreign policy should be?  In many respects it is. Victor Orban is a man who cares about his nation's prosperity and stability. Among major prerequisites for that is a foreign policy, which in case of a relatively small nation such as Hungary, serves interests of Hungarian people and business, not some ideological purposes. Apart from Hungary having a contract with Russia's giant Rosatom for new reactors for Hungary's only Paks nuclear power station, Hungary did this now:

Budapest signed a new long-term contract on Monday with Russia’s energy giant Gazprom for gas supplies bypassing Ukraine, Reuters reports. The agreement was sealed by Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller and Hungarian energy group MVM executives at the Hungarian Foreign Ministry.The deal was signed after Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced last month that Budapest had agreed with Moscow on all the conditions for a new supply contract to take effect from October 1. The minister said that under the new deal, Hungary will buy gas “at a much better price than under the expiring contract,” which was signed in 2020.

You see how simple it is? Be nice to Russia and Russia will pay back in kind, a really win-win situation. Obviously Ukraine went bananas immediately and manifested 404's main trait which is envy, which automatically transforms in hatred for Russia. Ukraine immediately ran to...of course, European Commission and promised to halt all gas transit to Hungary through Ukraine. You see, these miserable people cannot reconcile themselves to the fact that not only they managed in 30 years of Project 404 turn their country into the utter shithole and poorest one at that in Europe. No, they still cannot face the reality of Russians agreeing with them that Russians and Ukrainians "are non-brothers". Russians say fine, let's be non-brothers. Since you are not relatives, plus your "leadership" is a collection of Nazi-sympathizers or sanctimonious ass holes who care only about themselves, get in line and face consequences. 

 

Maria Zakharova pointed out in her Telegram-channel that: 

Когда в следующий раз наши западные партнёры будут отмечать «дни жертв тоталитаризма», кивая в сторону постсоветского пространства, пусть вспомнят, что питательной средой для его становления являются доносы на соседей по случаю зависти.  

Translation: The next time our Western partners celebrate the "days of victims of totalitarianism", nodding towards the post-Soviet space, let them remember that denunciations of neighbors on the occasion of envy are a breeding ground for its (totalitarianism) formation.

 

You can almost feel desperation of 404 and her curators in Europe (and the US), but the issue is extremely simple: Gazprom fulfills all its contractual obligations to European customers. Anything above it or when politics is involved, which is always, either pay more or go and freeze to death. Russia is not a charity, and as Putin is on record Russo-phobia has a price. Yes, the price is steep. But when politics takes precedent over normal mutually beneficial relations, well, what can I say--let them live with the consequences. New possible German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (from German Social Democratic Party) already started the same tired tune: Russia needs to keep Ukrainian transit and that Germany really "cares" about "energy security" of Eastern Europe (in Russian). 

 

What most of German politcos fail to understand, of course, is the fact that Russia is not beholden to Germany or Europe. Considering economic and political dynamics of EU, Russia is already hard at work with rerouting her energy supplies to the East, where there are very many customers hungry for Russian energy and, most importantly, those customers do not give a shit about LGBTQRC4ISR rights, about the "freedom of speech" and other propaganda BS the combined West uses for its nefarious purposes, and will gladly pay for what will be (and is being) rerouted from Europe. The objective of Russia's energy policy is to remove EU from the position of primary energy customer and supply it on the bases "as needed" or as "what is available". US "ministry of truth" is already hard at work:

Russia is pumping a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden — and it is not clear why

Then it goes into the same "Russia is bad" tropes until in the very cellar of the article it gets to a sensible conclusion that: 

Another theory, although analysts consider it somewhat less likely, is that because Gazprom believes Nord Stream 2 will soon be fully operational, it may not need to book further capacity elsewhere.

Generally speaking, one cannot communicate with EU and NATO in normal language anymore and the drifting apart will continue. But Hungary is an excellent example of how bilateral relations can work. As you can see the trend in EU-Russian economic relations is very pronounced:

And compared to volume of trade China alone (I underscore it--alone) and despite a dip in exports in 2019 due to pandemic--the trend here is also obvious, the trade grows. 

This trade also begins to increasingly substitute the trade with EU. Once one considers Russia's trade with Japan, Republic of Korea, Vietnam and other countries in Asia (such as steadily increasing trade with Indonesia as one example), one can get a clear idea of a steady diminishing in importance of Europe for Russia, not to mention the fact of a dramatic, tectonic shift in Russian attitudes toward the combined West which is viewed (correctly) as hostile, decadent, perverted and unattractive. As I said many times--I never experienced such level of contempt towards the West in Russia, even during the Cold War 1.0 it was different. Never. These attitudes do have a bearing on economy in the long run. But Hungary is definitely not covered by these attitudes because of both personality of Victor Orban and bilateral steady relations. In the end, even such an uncomfortable partner (due to Erdogan's expansionist aspirations) as Turkey sees her trade relations with Russia on the level ANY EU nation, including totally confused Germany, can only dream about. 

Turkey pledged its commitment to gradually enhancing commercial relations with one of its top trade partners, Russia, as the two nations look to reach their trade volume target, according to Trade Minister Mehmet Muş. “We want to develop trade with Russia in a balanced way on a win-win basis,” Muş said following his visit to Moscow last week, stressing Turkey's determination to bring the volume of commercial exchange to $100 billion (TL 845.4 billion), a goal set by the leaders of the two states. “We have serious cooperation in the field of energy. We want to expand and shift our cooperation there to different areas of energy,” Muş told Anadolu Agency (AA) Sunday.

$100 billion? Absolutely. As I said, Europe is becoming not that important for Russia and it is all for the better. So, Germany should keep in mind that one day she may wake up and find no good will left in Russia and for that she can blame only herself. Eventually, the transit through 404 will be stopped and this shithole of a nation will exist only on the handouts from those who helped to turn it into what it is today. Germany played and continues to play a huge role in creating this cesspool in the middle of European continent and Russians do keep the score.

You Know This Will Be Good...

Because it is based on REAL events, including THAT Su-24 whose shooting down by Turks turned out to be the start of tectonic events both inside Turkey and outside, and even globally. The new Russian movie Sky (Nebo) is about Syria and about real people who fought for her and even more than that.

Trailer from Russia's MoD. A very remarkable phrase in the trailer, when lieutenant-colonel (most likely based on Oleg Peshkov) responds to the offer to work in civil aviation: "I don't work for Russia, I serve her." I can already see an impact of this movie on Russia in general and her youth in particular. Finally, real Russian heroes are going back to the wide screen. Hollywood is silent. Release date on October 7.