Raptors of the Black Sea Fleet ...

... at work, or hunt if one wishes. It is actually a very good illustration of why this is SMO and not a War. Because if it were a war, there would have been no British Ministry of Defense, nor MI6, nor UK military as such and no drones. All without nukes. 

This Is Just The Start.

I do not say this under the influence of schadenfreude, I just say this because it is a cold hard fact and it will get worse, much-much worse.  WSJ noticed. 

Europeans are facing a new economic reality, one they haven’t experienced in decades. They are becoming poorer. Life on a continent long envied by outsiders for its art de vivre is rapidly losing its shine as Europeans see their purchasing power melt away. The French are eating less foie gras and drinking less red wine. Spaniards are stinting on olive oil. Finns are being urged to use saunas on windy days when energy is less expensive. Across Germany, meat and milk consumption has fallen to the lowest level in three decades and the once-booming market for organic food has tanked. Italy’s economic development minister, Adolfo Urso, convened a crisis meeting in May over prices for pasta, the country’s favorite staple, after they jumped by more than double the national inflation rate. With consumption spending in free fall, Europe tipped into recession at the start of the year, reinforcing a sense of relative economic, political and military decline that kicked in at the start of the century. 

It is inevitable in the times of the systemic collapse of the order under the weight of objective laws of economics and geopolitics. Remarkably, the creeps in WSJ, while making correct observation on Europe immediately fall into the cesspool of own economic BS attempt pathetically to draw a rosier picture of the US--a typical behavior of losers. 

One has to ask the question--in what parallel universe these ignorant propagandists from WSJ reside, when American economic reality is anything but an unfolding calamity. But then again, the school of the economic legerdemain in the US--a euphemism for cooking books--is renown around the world as one of those affairs of a porn starlet selling herself as virtuous wife. Some still buy this BS, but reality, of course, is such that without consuming Europe, an ongoing process as I type this, the American decline would have been even steeper. 

WSJ piece is reminiscent of the reaction of a convict on the death row consoling himself that he has a few more days to live left after the execution of the criminal from the neighboring cell. That in itself is an indicator of a nervous reaction. Especially claims that the US economy now "is nearly twice the size" of Eurozone's. Well, Wall Street "mathematics" certainly allows for this idiotic statement, but then again--in accordance to US media Ukraine is also winning. As Larry astutely noted at Judge's podcast:

It appears that the “Russia has lost” meme being pushed by Biden and his lackeys is to create an excuse for the United States to declare victory in Ukraine and walk away basking in the knowledge of “Mission Accomplished.” Based on what has transpired over the last 18 months, with the media refusing to ask any tough questions and frantically pushing pro-Ukrainian propaganda, I think the Biden national security team genuinely believes they can put the shine on Ukrainian military debacle by shouting victory over and over. They are firm believers in the power of spin. But the usually servile U.S. media is starting to show some signs of doing some actual journalism. A CNN reporter ventured to the front lines of a Ukrainian outpost and came back with a pretty somber picture of a faltering Ukrainian counter-offensive. 

Watch Larry with Judge here:

Schizophrenia afflicted Western societies and US media, such as this low life tabloid WSJ. US media played a crucial role in driving the US into the ground while helping to destroy Europe and setting it on the course to what would be called a "Second World"--much lower wages, much lower consumption and continuous industrial decline until it... implodes. The same scenario is awaiting the US but with its own quirks and being delayed somewhat. 

In SMO news, Russian Army took Sergeevka and continued to do what it does best--annihilating remaining VSU reserves. I'll be talking about delusion of Admiral Stavridis in my video later today. Evidently Stavridis missed bigly on the capabilities of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Somehow, I am not surprised--American top brass, most of it anyway, paraded itself as militarily ignorant people who reside in the alternative warfare universe. I am not surprised.

To Give A Proper Perspective...

As you know, yesterday the Black Sea Fleet took the delivery of the latest of the project 20380 corvette Merkurii. Now, the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Vice-Admiral Sokolov, speaking to the Red Star informed, with pleasure that by the end of 2023 three more project 22800 Karakurt-class small missile ships will join the fleet. 

That means additional 24 Kalibr-Oniks or Zircon missiles in the first salvo, but then Sokolov disclosed a very interesting piece of information:

Speaking about ships only--namely SSKs, FFGs and MRKs of the Black Sea Fleet--Sokolov pointed out that they struck MORE than 180 objects of VSU critical objects, and then added that BRAV (Coastal Missile-Artillery Troops) struck more than 70 objects. Now, let me decipher a little bit why this is startling. Even militarily illiterate people understand that, depending on the object, ranging from AD radar to position of troops, let alone production plant, one has to strike them not with one or two missiles, but with the salvo. So, what is, then, the expenditure of missiles by Black Sea frigates, subs and small missile ships? I will go out on a limb here and will tell you that the average number will range from 4 to 16 missiles. I would propose to consider as an average a standard salvo load of 3M14 Kalibr by SSK of project 636, which is 6 (six) missiles. 

So, that gives us the average expenditure of missiles as 180 x 6 = 1,080 missiles. We add here those 70 objects struck by BRAV--primarily Oniks (of Bastion complex) and Kh-35 (of Bal complex) and we can say that plus-minus this adds another 200-300 missiles. Add all this together and we can see that the Black Sea Fleet alone launched around (plus-minus) if we round it: 1,100 + 300 =1,400 stand off high precision weapons, aka cruise missiles. Do not also forget that the aviation of the Black Sea Fleet was and is also involved in SMO, but this data is unavailable for now. What is known that SU-30SMs (and some SU-24) of the 43rd Fighter Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet are engaged constantly in combat missions. 

So, now, just by counting what the ships and BRAV of the Black Sea Fleet do, one can definitely get the economic framework, so to speak, or scale of the military-economic potential Russia brings to bear. Mind you--this is JUST the Black Sea Fleet, alone. If one looks at the US very own UGM-109 Tomahawk per Raytheon:

Tried-and-true: U.S. and allied militaries have flight-tested the GPS-enabled Tomahawk 550 times and used it in combat more than 2,300 times. Its most recent use came in 2018, when U.S. Navy warships and submarines launched 66 Tomahawk missiles at Syrian chemical weapon facilities.

Considering the fact that GPS-guided Tomahawks have been introduced in 1993, 30 years ago, it gives you a proper perspective of the scale of SMO. And, mind you, Russia still didn't introduce her main forces into the battle. It also gives you some explanation of the complete unpreparedness of the Western so called intelligence community and Pentagon (I omit here morons from media and politics) to face modern warfare and economic realities. This is your Sunday primer.

OK, That's Funny.

I couldn't resist, honestly.  

The United States has transferred 20 new high mobility multi-purpose wheeled vehicles (HMMWV), aka Humvees, and 84 boats to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.The military equipment was supplied within the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative. "Nothing could stop the delivery of 20 Humvees to the Ukrainian Land Forces and Special Operations Forces along with 84 boats for the Ukrainian Navy as part of the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative," the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv wrote on Twitter on January 15.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/economics/security-assistance-initiative-united-states-transfers-20-new-humvees-84-boats-to-ukraine-s-army-11287376.html

OK, you don't need to listen to Russian here, just turn the sound off and enjoy the visuals, solemnity and the geopolitical grandeur of this event.  

Evidently, Russia's Black Sea Fleet was so scared of the growing might of the Ukrainian Navy that in desperate attempts to save at least some of its ships, sent Admiral Grigorovich and Dmitry Rogachev to Pakistan.

At least these two will stay away from an overwhelming naval firepower and might of those 84 Ukrainian inflatable boats. Nah, I am screwing with you. Grigorovich and Rogachev...

...have arrived in Pakistan to take part in the multinational exercise AMAN-2021. The drills are expected to see China and several NATO nations in attendance. Russian vessels arrived in Karachi on Thursday. They were greeted by Pakistan’s military officials, as well as the Russian diplomats working there, and they took a brief tour of the ships. RT’s footage from the scene shows the vessels being prepared for the drills, expected to kick off on Friday.

The only damage done to Black Sea Fleet was the fact that many had to struggle desperately against bursting into Homeric laughter at the Fleet's main command post after learning about massive inflatable armada planning attack on Sevastopol. I guess 20 Humvees are needed for transporting these boats to the shore line (before inflating them for a surprise attack on the Black Sea Fleet) and then transporting back whatever will be left of them after Russian Coast Guard will have a field day with live fire exercises and will return the remnants of this epic naval force to its lawful owners in Ukraine. Together with the crews. The hilarity of this whole affair is off the scale as is the absurdity of it, but what can I say--tell me who your friends are and I will tell... well, you know how it goes. As some observers in Russia state, the United States itself undergoes a profound Ukranization, and I happen to agree with this conclusion. The disease is extremely contagious, but I warned about it long time ago. What's left to do, then? Laugh...

Wrong Strategy.

Here is the map of the Sea of Azov the way Ukraine, in light of the Crimea's return home, viewed this Russian-Ukrainian internal sea. On 16 July 2015, a group of Ukrainian members of parliament submitted a Draft Law on the Denunciation of the Treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on Cooperation in the Use of the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait which was not, however, adopted. This is not surprising as Ukraine apparently relies on the Cooperation Agreement for both its claim that the construction of Kerch Strait Bridge is illegal and for its passage rights through Kerch Strait (see Part II of this contribution). In 2016, a number of Ukrainian State agencies requested satellite photos from Ukraine’s State Space Agency, naming part of Sea of Azov Ukraine’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Thus, even if a shared bay regime of internal waters exists in the Sea of Azov, it might not be here to stay.  

It is not anymore here to stay. Ukraine, in a desperate attempt, to achieve any kind of destabilization with and provoke Russia—a program clearly articulated by American foreign policy "elite" in 2014—detained Russian fishing boat Nord which was operating within international waters in the Sea of Azov and escorted this boat, with crew of 10 to the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. I am not going to delve into purely legal issues of this whole situation but something has to be clearly understood about serious strategic ramifications of this seemingly insignificant event. I already reviewed some thoughts (and geopolitical advice, no doubt, to powers that be in Washington) by great naval thinker and strategist such as Dr. Stephen Blank who proposed moving (I assume using under-keel wheels) US Navy's assets into this horrendously deep (average depth is 7 meters, that is 21 feet) body of water to scare the shit out of those arrogant Russkies and uphold Freedom of Navigation principles, but the matter is not as comic as it may seem.

1. US, or Deep State, or whatever the title of a cabal which runs Washington today, needs Russia to react forcefully and dramatically in order to push the war between Ukraine and Russia. This cabal wants to capitalize on all those, in their opinion, geostrategic benefits it will gain if Russia responds militarily. This will allow to coral US European lap-dogs, from Germany to ever folie de grandeur infected France, into the needed compliance and then prevent any Russia's energy project from materializing in Europe. Ukraine's violation of the agreed upon status of shared bay regime is as good as any as a provocation. 

2. Kiev also needs Russia to react dramatically and militarily but not overly painful for the neo-Nazi regime there, just enough to unleash a propaganda campaign which may "mobilized" Ukraine's brainwashed population in yet another anti-Russian frenzy and thus will remove focus on Ukraine's disastrous economic state. But here is conundrum—US wants an all-out war, Ukraine wants it "limited". The reason for that is:

3. Any major war with Russia for Ukraine means only one thing—fast and catastrophic military defeat and the end of the regime in Kiev, not only the regime of Poroshenko, but liquidation of a "modern" Ukraine in principle, with her partition. Russia doesn't want that (for now) because doesn't want to pay for tens of millions of brainwashed, hostile and freeloading population.  This is not to mention inevitable hysteria of the West with Russia still not 100% being ready to part with it. Catch-22 for Russia it may seem. But not quite. 

Russian response will be most likely very typical Russian—Russia will simply enforce the shared bay agreement with one small caveat. She will place into this EEZ Russian naval ships and will, no doubt, establish some air patrol routes there, with Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation making sure that mighty Ukrainian naval forces get the message. In fact Russian Navy, through former C'n'C of the Baltic Fleet Admiral Valuev made a very clear statement that Black Sea Fleet will use weapons to prevent Ukraine from acting as a pirate. What is remarkable here is the fact that this statement was made not by representative of Russian FSB Coast Guard, which does also have means to control Ukraine's outbursts of desperation, but namely by naval people. The hint is very clear—in the end Black Sea Fleet and its aviation need live targets to train its crews and pilots in the use of latest anti-shipping missiles.

Remarkably, this warning is not limited to the Sea of Azov, it helps to put things into prospective for Ukrainian regime which had some ideas about sabotaging Russia's economic interests in the Black Sea proper. But it seems that neither Kiev nor its curators in D.C. understand what it means to control the escalation. Russia can control escalation both in the Black Sea and in the Sea of Azov easily—through a massive force there. In the end, in 2017 Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation had to demonstrate to Ukrainian naval armada what to expect if it gets too close and dangerous to Russian oil rigs as it once tried. It took one SU-30SM to forecast the fate of the mighty Ukrainian Navy. 

So, after the incident with Nord will come to conclusion, Ukraine may forget now about any claims on what Russia was gladly ready to implement prior to this pirate act—bay sharing agreement. I guess by now Dr. Blank must be on the line with Washington D.C. demanding a couple of Carrier Battle Groups to go to the Sea of Azov to implement freedom of committing of pirate acts in a desperate attempt to provoke Russia--this is a very wrong strategy. God luck to him, I guess.   

Admiral Grigorovich, Welcome To The Fleet.

Yesterday, the leading ship of project 11356 Admiral Grigorovich was officially transferred to the Russian Navy. This ship, as well as two others, Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, to be commissioned in April and October 2016 respectively, are a good lesson in geopolitical realism for Russia. Hopefully, the lesson has been learned. Original 6-ship series of this class was supposed to have Ukrainian-made power plant but, as you all may know, things didn't work out this way. Current regime in Kiev is anything but normal and there are no reasons anymore for Russia to buy anything from Ukraine, especially equipment for the navy. Nor was it a good idea to buy power plant from German MTU--sanctions on Russia are here to stay and it is all for the better, while Germany can forget about Russia's market. Good riddance. NPO Saturn is already busy with designing power plant for future Russian ships. Russia is totally capable of producing first class power plant (COGAG) for any class of the ships.

Meanwhile, three other hulls of this class, most likely will not get their power plant on time and could be sold to India with Ukrainian power plant. Initially, all six were planned for the Black Sea Fleet, now, it seems, the Black Sea Fleet will receive only three. This changes operational picture substantially. The Black Sea Fleet for decades, for a reasons of Crimea being a de jure part of Ukraine since 1991, was the most neglected Russia's Fleet. Times changed and six project 11356 frigates were supposed to be the core of what would eventually emerge as remote analogue of the Soviet Navy's 5th Operational Squadron (OPESK). While deliveries of the brand new SSKs of Kilo-class are on track and formation of the separate brigade of this highly capable subs is on track too, the Black Sea Fleet will need more in terms of its surface combatants. One of the stop-gap solutions could be, and it was articulated already, delivery of increased numbers of project 21631 Buyan-class and perspective project 22800 Karakurt-class  missile corvettes. There is also a possibility of some of the project 22160 patrol ships adding to what can be a mighty first salvo of deadly Kalibr and Onyx missiles. The problem with this solution, however, is that none of the missile corvettes listed have robust enough air defense systems and carry only short-range self-defense weapons. Grigorovich-class frigates were supposed to be the ones providing a robust air defense cover with their Shtil' AD Complex.

It is difficult to predict how this problem will be solved but there is little doubt that something is in the works. In the end, the transfer of Northern Fleet bound couple of project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates with their mighty Poliment-Redut can not be ruled out. Meanwhile, the new ship for the Russian Navy and she is a beauty and a damn dangerous one at that. 

Grigorovich sister ship Admiral Essen

 As they say--7 feet under the keel............