Zircon, Again.

The beauty of such forums as Army-2020 that they are used also as a platform for signing new contracts and to reveal new info on weapon systems coming into production. New details emerge all the time and as TASS reports (in Russian) latest info on 3M22 Zircon testing is that the new test is planned this coming September and Admiral Gorshkov will be launching a salvo. After this pretty mundane info TASS divulged that more than 10 launches at sea targets has been conducted between 2015 and 2018 which gives pretty good idea about the dynamics of the development of this weapon and removes any speculations--largely from the Western "analytical" (euphemism for BS narrative mongers) organizations and Russia's very own fanboys--on the nature and capabilities of this missile. Zircon, same as Kinzhal, is a universal missile capable of both anti-shipping and land-attack modes at velocities exceeding M=9. I know, there is so much butt-hurt in the West, especially in D.C., but this cannot be helped--it is what it is. 

In the news which sort of got drowned among all this political noise, revealing of a funny Russian missiles Germes went almost unnoticed, but professionals really took a note (in Russian). This shaitan weapon flies to 100 kilometers range with almost hyper-sonic speed, has its own targeting swarm of drones and rumor has it even an active seeker, that is "shoot-and-forget" weapon. Well, it is shoot and forget with passive IR guidance anyway. Albeit officially it is semi-active guidance on the terminal. This is... drum roll... an anti-tank missile. 

As tests revealed it takes one missile to finish off any tank. Here is your mathematical expectation, Omega=1. One can only imagine the effect such a system can have on any tank force getting ready to deploy to the front line, considering the fact that CEP for this missile when launching to a maximum range of 100 kilometers is 50 centimeters, that is roughly 20 inches. With its speed of M=4+, good luck intercepting it. I am telling you, this signal processing thingy develops with an insane speed. Again, Real Revolution in Military Affairs as it unfolds in a front of our very own eyes. Can you imagine what is still in the secret labs or on drawing boards in Russia? We may only speculate. Ah, yes, Germes-A can also be installed on aircraft ranging from attack helicopters to attack fixed wing. It is already in service, was used in Syria, and, if that wasn't bad enough, this thing can shoot down aircraft. Can you imagine modernization potential for this weapon? 

Why Turkish SOM, which is a cruise missile--and you guessed it, subsonic--was bundled together with Germes beats me completely, two absolutely different weapons. Even Israeli "analog" is not even in the same league and, as you may have guessed it, subsonic. Speed decides the issue, range too, and the West has nothing comparable. I can only reiterate with quoting, again, Douglas Macgregor.

Ignoring this reality is the road to future defeats and American decline. It’s time to look beyond the stirring images of infantrymen storming machine-gun nests created by Hollywood and to see war for what it is and will be in the future: the ruthless extermination of the enemy with accurate, devastating firepower from the sea, from the air, from space and from mobile, armored firepower on land.   

Yep, a real war is not Hollywood and I don't think, in fact I am 100% positive, the United States (forget about pathetic Europe) is simply not ready and will not be for it and that is the danger, of which I speak for years. But this is a separate topic.       

Admiral Kasatanov Is Off To Trials.

Second (first series) frigate of the project 22350 (Admiral Gorshkov-class) Admiral Kasatanov is on its way to trials.

ST.PETERSBURG, December 21. /TASS/. The second Project 22350 frigate AdmiralKasatonov built at the Severnaya Verf Shipyard in St. Petersburg in northwestRussia has entered sea trials, the Shipyard’s press office told TASS on Friday."The frigate Admiral Kasatonov has taken to the sea for trials. They willlast until the New Year," the press office said. During the trials, theshipbuilders will check the warship’s systems: from the propulsion unit toelectrical equipment and the navigation, damage control and crew rescue system.The frigate Fleet Admiral Kasatonov is the second (the first serial-produced)Project 22350 warship. The Project was developed by the Severnoye DesignBureau. The lead warship of this series, the Admiral Gorshkov, was delivered tothe Navy in the summer of 2018 and the construction of two more frigates (theAdmiral Golovko and the Admiral Isakov) continues at the slipways of theSevernaya Verf Shipyard in St. Petersburg. Project 22350 frigates are expectedto become the Russian Navy’s most advanced warships in their class. Thesefrigates displace 4,500 tonnes and can develop a speed of 29 knots. They arearmed with Oniks and Kalibr missiles and the Poliment-Redut air defense missilesystem.

This is a milestone event for Russian Navy when one considers what went into the birth of this class of the ships after decades of gross under-funding and, sometimes, direct sabotage of Russian Navy. These are powerful ships with a state-of-the-art air-defense complex Poliment-Redut and a comprehensive electronics suite. Of course, these handsome ships pack a very serious anti-shipping and land-attack punch, capable to launch both Kalibr family missiles as well as P-800 Oniks. 

Kasatonov Off To Trials

Here is also TV report (in Russian) on this event:

At this stage no one knows if this class will be limited to 6 hulls with much heavier project 22350M "so called" frigates coming after them but, after issues with Poliment-Redut have been sorted out, there is very little doubt that these seem to be very nice and powerful ships. In related news, as CNBC based on their "sources" (Hm!) reports:

WASHINGTON — Russia has conducted another successful test of its ship-based hypersonic missile, a weapon the United States is currently unable to defend against, according to two people with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report. The people, who spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity, said Russia has carried out five total tests of its ship-based hypersonic missile since 2015. The last known test of the device, dubbed “Tsirkon,” was successfully conducted Dec. 10 and reached a top speed of Mach 8, approximately eight times the speed of sound, or about two miles per second. “What we are seeing with this particular weapon is that the Russians designed it to have a dual-purpose capability, meaning, it can be used against a target on land as well as a vessel at sea,” one source explained. “Last week’s successful test showed that the Russians were able to achieve sustained flight, a feat that is crucial in the development of hypersonic weapons.”

I don't know what those CNBC's "sources" are, but there is very little doubt that hyper-sonic missiles of non-Kinzhal aero-ballistic variety are coming very soon to ships and submarines of the Russian Navy. There is absolutely nothing which can defend against salvo of such missiles and that does change, as I wrote for years, the naval combat completely thus overturning many doctrinal assumptions by fervent navalists, especially in relation to aircraft carrier-centricity of the fleets. This was, actually, clear already in 1980s. Will Gorshkov-class be able to carry Zircon (3M22) once it gets procured? Most likely. But even in present configuration of their weapons' suites these ships are truly first post-Soviet Russia's, from scratch, major combatants who outgun any ship in the frigate-class in the world. Not too shabby, if one asks me.   

UPDATE (12/22). Yes, it looks like CNBC got this one right this time, since TASS' sources in military-industrial complex did confirm this: 

MOSCOW, December 21. /TASS/. Russia has made over ten test launches of the Tsirkon seaborne hypersonic missile against naval targets at a distance of over several hundred kilometers since the beginning of its trials, a source in the defense industry told TASS on Friday.The missile’s trials began about four years ago and are continuing now from the coastal stand, the source said. "Overall, more than ten test launches have been performed against targets at sea at a distance of several hundred kilometers," the source said. The hypersonic missile "repeatedly destroyed designated naval targets at the hypersonic speed," the source added, declining to give the date of the latest trials. TASS has no official confirmation of this information yet.

The most important in this piece is this:

As was reported earlier, Tsirkon missiles will be launched with the help of the universal shipborne vertical launching systems currently used for Kalibr and Oniks cruise missiles. Such systems are mounted, in particular, on Project 20380 corvettes, Project 22350 frigates and Project 885 Yasen-class submarines.

That pretty much sums up a general direction Russian Navy is taking. Not that we didn't know or justifiably assumed it, but the ability of VLS UKSK to launch 3M22 gives a good grasp of the "weight" of the salvo by Russian fleet.

A Sh.tstorm Corvette.

No, really, these Project 22160 patrol boats did create a shitstorm among Russian naval professionals. I, at some point of time, simply stopped issuing my opinions on the matter and reverted to a pop-corn observer status because this whole thing started to remind me so much of an endless Littoral Combat Ships saga (or acrimony, if one will) in the US Navy. For starters--realistically nobody in public space knows for sure what the hell those combat packages (containers) for 22160 are. Well, except for 3M14 and 3M54 Kalibr family of weapons in those containers. Those who know--they keep silence. There is, however, a consensus that having engines in a single compartment is not a sign of a naval ship--I agree with this. Survivability should be above all. In the same time, it is clear that these corvettes were conceived in the times when Russian Navy after decades of rusting away suddenly started to get so much desired cash flow. People got drunk on so many ideas and decided, hell, why not make some Russian version of LCS in a more modest displacement and dimensions and call this contraption a Patrol Ship. 

Ok, these are actually very attractive boats with a good 76-mm gun and decent electronics suite, which immediately makes them excellent picket ships capable for provision of targeting to a whole lot of platforms, plus...yes, killing pirates. Good escort boat for all kinds of a commercial traffic on the seas. 

And yes, did I mention those are really handsome boats;) 

Second of the series Dmitry Rogachev in Sevastopol. Thanks to Igor84 from Airbase.

Here is video (in Russian) on completion of trials of Vasily Bykov (a first hull of 22160) in Novorossiisk yesterday. 

And while a shitstorm rages because of these controversial ships, 6 of them (full series) will be finished opinions of many professionals regardless and those, when armed with Kalibrs, anti-mine, ASW and other packages, in addition to their organic helicopter could be of a multiple use, especially in the times of crazy state and non-state actors ready to go to any length to undermine Russia's borders and commerce. BTW, did I mention that they are handsome boats? 

Vasily Bykov

So, I guess will see how, obviously US Navy's, late Admiral Cebrowski's idea, which went astray in LCS, will perform in Russian Navy and who knows, maybe Lazarus (those who need to know, they know) will finally find peace and a good empirical argument. Meanwhile, shitstorm continues.

Radiophotonics, Again.

I know I am being bad because I don't keep my word on getting to Radiophotonics topic but I have an excuse--I am really busy. This morning, however, some interesting news--it does exist, it is in the process of trials and addressing its inevitable issues (in Russian), and that means the end radio VLO as such in a very near future. Not that VLO is that much useful now in high end peer-to-peer warfare but ramifications of radiophotonics radar being deployed in the modern battle-field are immense and have strategic implications. This also explains Russia's rather calm and confident reaction in the last 20+ years to US radio VLO (Stealth) developments since modern signal processing and sensor fusion techniques allow for a very effective countering of "stealth" targets. 

In fact, at this stage any further investment into VLO technologies seems to be just a waste of time and money or, as Commanders Gattuso and Tanner wrote 17 years ago (in relation to CVN(X)), it is:

like polishing cannonballs so they will fly a little farther

Difficult to disagree. In fact, one of the reasons I am being that non-responsive re: this particular radiophotonics issue is because I decided to become a "Tom Clancy", just a teeny-weeny bit, otherwise I will need a serious detox, in trying to look into the future of the warfare and that is what parts of my new book are about. No doubt, new detection methods will play a crucial role in providing a reliable coverage against any kind of threats for those nations which will gain a decisive advantage in radiophotonics technology, among many others.     

About Zircon, Yet Again...

As sources in Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed today, 3M22 anti-shipping missile, also known as Zircon reached the speed of Mach=8 on its trials. This is insane and this is also not-interceptable by any known or perspective air-defense systems. Moreover, more became known about its range, stated to be around 400 kilometers, what this "around" means nobody knows but it was speculated for a while that it is up to 500 kilometers. But that is not what really matters in this news. For me it was a surprise--it was confirmed that Zircon will be launched from standard 3C14 VLS system which is installed on all new Russian frigates and corvettes this adding to Kalibr and Onyx carrying capability. These are not good news for opponents surface component, in fact, these are very very bad news since this capability will be distributed across most platforms, current and perspective, Russian Navy deploys. 

Strategic and operational implications, as I wrote not for once, are immense. Coming of Zircon will change naval warfare forever and will redefine the nature of Sea Denial and A2/AD and it will influence a design and tactics of surface (and submarines) combatants.  Littorals and Remote Sea Zones are about to become a whole lot more dangerous, and I mean a whole lot, like on the order of magnitude. In the end, this is what Russians always were striving for with their constant focus on cost/effectiveness ratio. Currently US Naval Institute Proceedings has my article precisely on that--I don't know if they will accept, I should by the end of April. If not, I will gladly share will all (or on UNZ Review) with my thoughts on the revolutionary change in naval tactics and operations which even  single salvo of two Zircons will bring about. We live in a very dangerous time, we also live inside a game-changing in warfare and this one is a real Revolution In Military Affairs (RMA) which came from very unexpected (for most US military analysts) quarters.