This Will Be In My Today's Video ...

 ... but I want you to just wrap your brain around what you see. 

This is the town of Gaisin (Haysin) in Vinnitsa Oblast of 404. In 2022 it had the population of 25, 698 people. What you see is typical for 404 today. And the guys who drive by talk about that MIAs are not even included. This is just one of the indicators of a catastrophe in 404 and VSU, which also is underscored (it is a very strong correlation) with the latest exchange of bodies between 404 and Russia. 1,000 VSU bodies vs 41 of Russian soldiers. 1,000/41 = 24. So, this time it is 1 Russian for 24 VSU. If you calculate even from this POV (which is incomplete--tactical and operational rear losses of VSU are horrendous), then taking this metric in consideration and base number of VSU KIAs+MIAs of 2.5 million, you can roughly calculate Russia's KIAs: 2, 500, 000/25 = 100, 000 give and take of Russian personnel. That is why not a single ass-hole from BBC or CNN can find anything even remotely similar to 404 cemeteries and towns like Gaisin in Russia. Some inputs from frontlines by senior commanders (not by some info shysters with no military background) describe very similar picture in terms of ratios. 

Note, just in this statistics the ratio is 16,480/464 = 36.  

That means 1 body of Russian soldier for 36 VSU. Now you understand why West (headed by the US) is a war criminal, including its generals and intel people who "planned this". 

Sure, It Was The "Ghost of Kuwait"...

 ... but even US Air and Space Forces magazine has to admit: 

Iran has developed air defense systems that can use passive infrared sensors rather than radar to target aircraft, a solution that previously proved effective in Yemen when employed by the Iranian-backed Houthis, which downed around half a dozen MQ-9 Reapers during Operation Rough Rider last year. The stealthy F-35 evades radar, but infrared sensors home in on heat. The F-35 is now one of around 20 U.S. Air Force aircraft known to be damaged or destroyed in the nearly three-week-old Iran war.

So, let me clarify. 

1. F-35 DOES NOT "evade radar", it is pure BS. It has lower signature in the front semisphere. It is totally detectible;

2. What is "around" 20 aircraft? 19? 22? 25? 

Well, make your own conclusions. But, it will take USAF some time for getting used to that, since this is the FIRST time in many decades that it encountered an actual air defense which is newer than was AD in Yugoslavia--by a generation, if not two--and that getting high on fairy tales by 404 on issues of AD and air combat is not good for your health, both physical and mental. I know they still run Top Gun: Maverick in selected theaters. I do prefer, however, the first one--fun and great soundtrack. Ah yes, Kelly McGillis at her stunning top self. To those who still consume this "stealth" BS, MQ-9 Reaper drone is also "stealthy", yet somehow they are falling from the skies. Yes, it was very successful against mighty Taliban air force and air defense. 

Here is poor-poor dear Stephen Miller's reaction during Trump's speech on his victories in Iran. 

Something went wrong, but what? /s

Larry Wilkerson's Valuable Insight...

 ... on Judge Nap's show. On culpability. Which only buttresses my constant point that neither Pentagon, let alone CIA, nor, let alone kindergarten in London know what real operations are and act on an amateurish template of Operational Manuals written for fighting people who cannot shoot back. 

Now, today Russian MoD provided the "score" for Kursk. 

"Всего за время боевых действий на Курском направлении противник потерял более 5800 военнослужащих, 72 танка, 31 боевую машину пехоты, 58 бронетранспортеров, 383 боевых бронированных машины, 177 автомобилей, 37 артиллерийских орудий", - говорится в сообщении ведомства. Кроме того, ВСУ потеряли пять установок зенитных ракетных комплексов, 11 пусковых установок реактивных систем залпового огня, в том числе три РСЗО HIMARS и одну MLRS, девять станций радиоэлектронной борьбы, РЛС контрбатарейной борьбы, РЛС противовоздушной обороны, пять единиц инженерной техники, в том числе две инженерные машины разграждения и одну установку разминирования УР-77. "Операция по уничтожению формирований ВСУ продолжается", - добавили в МО РФ.

Translation: "In total, during the military actions in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 5,800 servicemen, 72 tanks, 31 infantry fighting vehicles, 58 armored personnel carriers, 383 armored combat vehicles, 177 cars, 37 artillery pieces," the ministry said in a statement. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost five anti-aircraft missile systems, 11 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including three HIMARS and one MLRS, nine electronic warfare stations, a counter-battery radar, an air defense radar, five units of engineering equipment, including two engineering vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing unit. "The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues," the Russian Ministry of Defense added.

Basically, a division has been wiped off the order of battle for VSU and Russian Army gladly continues to wipe out other reserves which are being thrown into this meat-grinder. As I stress all the time--the numbers of VSU losses are very conservative to put it mildly. E.g. double strike on VSU facility and concentration on VSU troops in Slavyansk today. Nobody would even count their 200s and 300s and they will not be included by Russian MoD into statistics. 

That's the template thinking.

Let Him Die.

The only meme which comes to mind is this Russian one:

Home T-shirt: Let me die!

The guy: No, my home t-shirt, I love you. 

Isn't it the time of not only for Boeing to review its QA procedures but also retire this whole thing, except the ones who are manufactured roughly before 2012-2015 and let their service life to run out? 

United Airlines, one of the biggest buyers of Boeing jets, is losing patience with the troubled aircraft maker. “I’m disappointed that… this keeps happening at Boeing. This isn’t new,” said Scott Kirby, CEO of United, in an interview Tuesday on CNBC. “We need Boeing to succeed. But they’ve been having these consistent manufacturing challenges. They need to take action here.” Kirby made his comments after the airline warned investors that it will report a larger-than-expected loss in the first three months of this year because of the grounding of all 737 Max 9 jets after a door plug blew off on an Alaska Air flight on January 5, leaving a massive hole in the side of the plane. The plane landed without any serious injuries, but the Federal Aviation Administration ordered the grounding and additional inspections of the more than 200 jets of that model worldwide. United Airlines said it now expects its fleet of Boeing Max 9 jets to remain grounded through the end of this month, and that the company will report a first quarter loss in the range of $116 million to $262 million. That’s more than the $138 million loss already forecast by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

Let's face it, B-737 has become the sort of this home t-shirt which wants to die but is still being worn despite obvious necessity for change. Or, speaking in aeronautical--new single isle aircraft. Boeing finally convinced me that my flying on B-737s is over. And, evidently, I am not the only one. B-737 served all of us well and its time to wind this almost 60 years old concept down. This plane becomes a liability.

Marat On Losses...

... for both sides. In Russian. But Marat gives excellent spread, including operationally. He also confirms what I speak about for months now--Russia gives primarily KIA numbers for VSU. So read it--it is extremely important. 

Not The First Time...

... people point out to Sy Hersh and his "denigrating" of Russian Army.  Let me explain something:

1. Sy Hersh may be a very good investigative journalist with zero background in military science, engineering science and Russia. He may know who blew up NS 2, but he wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola in any serious issue related to Russia as a whole, and Russian Armed Forces in particular.

2. He denigrates himself when waxing "strategic" because he wouldn't know what strategy of Russia both on national level and, especially, on the military one is--for that one should have a solid military-intel background. Sy Hersh has neither even if one considers, as many professionals in Russia do, that he is a conduit for important leaks from one of the power blocks within US political power structure. He certainly should stick to what he does best and that is investigate a government level mischief. 

Which brings us to this issue. In my latest video I already stated--it doesn't matter what NATO supplies to whatever is left of 404, it would make no difference on operational and strategic level, and as you may remember military science axiom--wars are won on operational and strategic levels. Couple of lucky sorties, a leaker or two on some target in Russia, or any other trick for the consumption of the fanboys and military hardware masturbators make absolutely no difference for the outcome. Lt.Colonel Daniel Davis gets it and lists only some issues related to modern air combat for US fighter planes:

For starters, it will take a long time to adequately train Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews to be able to fly the jets into combat and keep them airworthy. In February, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl said it would take between 18 and 24 months to get pilots and maintenance crews trained, airframes procured, and delivered on site for use. Yet a leaked Air Force assessment leaked last Thursday suggested the training time might be as few as four months. Even if that were true — and in all likelihood that would get pilots to a minimum capacity to fly the jets but be far from proficient in air-to-air combat — the process to identify F-16s from partner countries, get them airworthy, and then deliver them with the full contingent of maintenance supplies, spare parts, and ammunition, will likely take into 2024. 

There is little likelihood, therefore, the fighters will see combat over the skies of Ukraine this year. Secondly, while the F-16 is clearly one of the best fourth-generation fighter jets in the world, its primary effectiveness is predicated on being one component in an integrated command and control battle management system of sensors. While the jet is capable of operating on its own, it is far less capable without additional acquisition assets, such as the E-3 Sentry AWACS. To date, there has been no discussion of providing this capability to Ukraine. Third, the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft. It was first delivered to the active Air Force in 1979, and it is vulnerable to Russian air defenses, such as the S-300 and more advanced S-400 air defense systems. One of the reasons the Ukrainian Air Force has played such a minimal role in this war has been their inability to neutralize the Russian air defense networks. While the F-16 is more capable than the MiG-29s the Ukrainians have been using, it is still vulnerable to attack by Russia’s air defenses. 

This today's piece gets it somewhat, but here is the issue which is going to irritate many rah-rah boys who learned about modern air combat from the Top Gun: Maverick school of the advanced military studies and who still cannot wrap their brains around this simple fact: NO modern US pilot, even the Senator Kelly, ever flew any mission under the conditions of high density Air Defense, EW and being outgunned and outranged by the enemy's Air Force. None, zero, zilch, nada and, consequently, lacking practical (emphasis--PRACTICAL) tactical and operational experience and all necessary tactical and operational data, they are reduced to theoretical study of experiences of those very few Ukie and possibly NATO pilots who survived more than one mission against Russians. 

Moreover, Russian Air Force Beyond Visual Range (BVR) against capable MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24 of Ukie AF is staggering--a wet dream for very many in NATO Air Forces. Moreover, USAF NEVER operated against the best air defense in the world. Davis forgets that air domain in SMO is stuffed with not just S-300 or S-400s, nope, Tor-M2s, S1 Pantsirs, let alone Buk-M2 and M3, not to mention S-350 Vityaz are all there and it is them who create the most hostile air environment in history, as Ukie AF learned the hard way. Here are their losses in fixed and rotary wing aircraft:

As you can see yourself, for today (May 21, 2023) aggregate losses of the 404 AF are: 428 fixed wing aircraft, 234 rotary wing and 4,245 UAVs of all kind. We will learn later how many of those combined 428+234 = 662 manned aircraft have been shot down by combat aircraft of Russian VVS (Air Force) and how many by Air Defense complexes, but to provide some proper perspective on the intensity of the air combat in SMO, take a look at these numbers.

In other words, Russian VKS (Russian AF and AD are constituent parts of VKS) wiped out the equivalent of the French Air Force with every single aircraft in its inventory. This is for those people who still are puzzled why NASA and USAF pilot Senator Kelly is full o shit, a liar and a sore loser badmouthing Russian pilots. As I am on record, the USAF never experienced anything like this. As a result, including an ongoing implosion of the American military mythology, the desperation in Washington is palpable and in feeble attempts to save totally destroyed reputation of American weapons, those neocon fanatics will continue to throw at Russia everything they gave got. And they will lie openly for the whole world to see, pulling numbers out of their asses. 

The Russian forces have allegedly suffered heavy casualties in the months-long battle for the strategic Donbass city of Artyomovsk, US President Joe Biden told journalists at the G7 summit in the Japanese city of Hiroshima on Sunday. “The truth of the matter is that Russians have suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut [Artyomovsk in Russia]. That is hard to make up,” the US president claimed, without revealing the source of this information. He then downplayed Russia’s capture of the city by saying that “there are not many buildings left standing in Bakhmut” and calling it a “pretty devastated city.”

Russia is ready for any contingency, including even the suicidal decision by Washington to throw whatever forces of the US Army they will be able to assemble. They will have the fate similar to VSU and that is why Russian Ground Forces have roughly half-a-million fresh and well trained troops in a strategic reserve in the rear. In this case, F-16s in 404 are just a desperate gesture against the background of a catastrophic military-economic collapse of the combined West and regimes who drove Western Civilization into the ground and who are feeling the pinch. In related news: war crimes tribunals are set up by victors and the West ain't victor. But I am sure they know it in D.C. and Brussels, right?

Bernhard Commented On Larry's Superb Piece.

Yesterday, Larry demolished what passes in the US for main stream "journalism" by exposing utter BS they publish about Ukraine and SMO, specifically NYT and WaPo. 

The U.S. and European officials are relying on HOPE–hope that troop shortages and old, worn out equipment slow the Russian advance. A reporter worth a damn should have asked, “what is the evidence of troop shortages?” Russia is not a totalitarian state. Russia has not shut down opposition media and political parties. Ukraine has done that. So where is the social media showing a rising tide of disgruntled Russians being forced to put on the uniform and then being compelled to show up on the front lines without adequate training? I have not seen it. Have you? Please forward if you got it and please, no video game footage. That does not count. Are you familiar with the refrain, “If if and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday.” That seems to be the position of the unnamed U.S. and European officials desperately hoping that Ukraine’s million man offensive against Kherson will succeed. Only several little problems. Ukraine is having a dickens of a time scraping together that mythical million man army. And if they do succeed in rounding up that many sentient fellows, how will they get proper training while Russia continues to hit Ukrainian training bases with missiles, rockets and shells? 

Read the whole thing at Larry's excellent blog. But Bernhard of MoA didn't just read Larry's piece, he, in typical methodical Bernhard's manner, expanded and provided some additional insights. As Bernhard states:

I am not going to join Larry in dispelling the myths those 'journalists' try to spread. These people do not go out into the field to look at the facts. They do not consult frontline maps, casualty statistics, structure of forces or economic data. They have no experience in the art of war. They are mere stenographers, highly paid ones, who hang on the lips of 'officials' and write down whatever the 'sources' who invite them want them to tell.

Exactly, and Bernhard lists those "sources" and then concludes:

What is terrifying about such pieces is that 'officials' in Washington and Europe are actually reading such stuff and come to believe in it. They are consuming the myths they themselves produce and then act on them. They thereby ignore history, basic facts and the very real life of the people who become casualties of their wars.

Exactly! Somebody, a few years ago, complained that Louis C.K., the comic, was doing his Russian "routine", laughing at Russia he visited in 1990s. In 2015-16 he still thought that it was the same Russia, he never even bothered to visit Russia in 2016 and he still thought about this grim crime-ridden miserable place he saw in 1990s. This is the problem for the US, including also the problem that overwhelming majority of the US decision-makers are civilians with humanities degrees who never served a day in the uniform and who have huge difficulties with grasping even basic physics and mathematics principles behind modern warfare and as a result they tend to rely on absolutely the same ignoramuses from US media, who are in the business of spreading BS. 

Sadly, even professionals, who should know better sometime don't know better. I was bombarded in the comments sections to my videos with questions like: but Prof. Postol says that Russian Early Warning System sucks compared to the American one.(c) After that even Douglas MacGregor repeats that, despite obviously missing the caveat by the same Prof. Postol that he was basing his opinion on late 1990s-early 2000s data. It has been more than 20 years since then. Remember? I had to write a separate post about this horrendous misperception.  

What is horrible here is the fact that many still do not grasp a fundamental difference between Russian and US ABM systems--Russian ABM system at this stage already is capable to mitigate a nuclear attack on Russia by fielding (no, not planning but actually deploying) systems with a full blown intercontinental anti-ballistic capability such as S-500, S-550, A-235 Nudol. These are capabilities the US simply doesn't have. Importantly, one needs a system of BMEWS radar with accuracy characteristics such as Voronezh to not just detect but provide accurate targeting for ABM systems. Look at the comparative characteristics of Russian and US BMEWS radar. Especially their accuracy in targeting. Guess from three times who gets better probabilities for a hard-kill (kinetic, meaning physically slamming into nuclear warhead) of the incoming MIRVs. Right. 

And this is just one example out of very many. Now to today's news, which reminds me the news from 1944 and Patton's (yes, yes, this "genius for war") Lorraine Campaign. 

Few of the Germans defending Lorraine could be considered first-rate troops. Third Army encountered whole battalions made up of deaf men, others of cooks, and still others consisting entirely of soldiers with stomach ulcers. The G2 also identified a new series of German formations designated volksgrenadier divisions. (See Figure 1.) These hastily constituted divisions numbered only 10,000 men each and possessed only six rifle battalions; in theory they were to be provided with extra artillery and assault guns to compensate for the quantitative and qualitative inferiority of their infantry. Two to 3 panzer divisions faced Third Army in a mobile reserve role, but these units had managed to bring only 5 or 10 tanks apiece out of the retreat across France.

Well, get a load of this per today's briefing by Russia's MOD. As Konashenkov states today:

«Из-за высоких потерь режим Зеленского принимает меры по восполнению некомплекта личного состава украинских формирований в районе боевых действий в Донбассе. Так, принято решение о досрочной отправке на передовую мобилизованных граждан, начавших подготовку в учебном центре 72-й механизированной бригады в городе Белая Церковь Киевской области. Вместе с ними направляются и находившиеся в госпиталях раненые, не дожидаясь завершения ими полного курса реабилитации после ранений»

Translation: “Due to heavy losses, the Zelensky regime is taking measures to replenish the shortfall in the personnel of Ukrainian formations in the combat zone in Donbass. Thus, a decision was made to send mobilized citizens to the front line ahead of schedule, who began training at the training center of the 72nd mechanized brigade in the city of Belaya Tserkov, Kyiv region. Together with them, the wounded who were in hospitals are also sent, without waiting for them to complete the full course of rehabilitation after injuries."

You get the picture. Once one starts drafting 65 year olds, it is everything one needs to know about the state of the affairs on the front. For references see again the Patton's Lorraine Campaign. I will also be talking about what modern ISR complex is, including this Western and fanboys' fetish of UAVs and how modern (I stress again--modern) ISR complex is way more (much-much more) than mere UAVs.  

Russia said it launched a military satellite into orbit late Monday. The footage allegedly shows a Soyuz rocket blasting off from the Plesetsk State Test Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region in northern Russia, at 11:25 p.m. The Russian authorities stated that it was carrying a military satellite named "Cosmos-2558."

Yes, yes, can you imagine--those backward Rooskies can launch not just satellites, but launch them when they want and however they want, not to mention the fact that those satellites nowadays are built around Russian-made microelectronics. Here, Russians are getting ready to start launching Sfera-program satellites (Skif series) for a high speed internet for Russia. And, naturally, all Western components were fast replaced by Russian-made ones (in Russian). Louis C.K. I am calling on you, granted that nowadays West made traveling to Russia extremely difficult, just get visa and go visit Russia today and see the difference between 1990s and 2022--you know, will be good for your stand up routine and your OODA loop.

Short Note On Russian (LDNR Too) Losses.

Russian MoD announced the number of losses by combined Russian-LDNR forces.  KIAs: 1,351, Sanitary (Wounded etc.): 3,825 (in Russian). As you can see yourself a classic ratio of roughly 1 KIA to 3 Sanitary is almost exact. This is exactly what I wrote about two days ago. This shows, as is known now, that Anglo-American MSM are staffed with one-cell creatures who know nothing, as is true for their curators from "intel" who drip all kinds of BS for them, about real war and basic correlates, which do not require special education. How do I assess losses? Under existing conditions and considering a massive scale of operation--they are light. 

Meanwhile VSU continues to annihilate Russian aviation, now the third time over, and is being victorious to the left and to the right. PJW has a video to prove it;)

I guess CIA and Pentagon should really continue to rely on VSU as their sources of information. Same as US Treasury should rely on economic data from IMF, or State Department base its conclusions on opinions of Michael McFaul, Masha Gessen and Julia Ioffe.