They Knew It.

About IL-76 with 65 VSU POWs for exchange. 

On Wednesday at 11:15 Moscow time, reports came in that an IL-76 military transport plane carrying Ukrainian POWs had crashed and exploded in a field near the village of Yablonovo in the Korochansky district of Belgorod Region, which neighbors Ukraine.

The salvo of two AD missiles which downed this plane whose schedule (time of departure, flight plan etc.) was known in advance by Kiev regime came from the village of Liptsy, which is about 40 kilometers from Belgorod proper and the range of intercept was likely even less--the range for any medium-range AD system. The names of 65 VSU POWs are known now and the list has been published. In the same time, Russian MoD reports today:

МОСКВА, 24 янв — РИА Новости. Российские военные впервые сообщили об уничтожении в зоне специальной военной операции французского зенитного ракетного комплекса SAMP-T. «В течение суток уничтожены склады боеприпасов 31-й механизированной и 26-й артиллерийской бригад ВСУ, зенитный ракетный комплекс SAMP-T французского производства", — говорится в сводке военного ведомства. ЗРК SAMP-T предназначен для противовоздушной обороны войск и механизированных соединений, находящихся на марше, а также обеспечения противовоздушного прикрытия стационарных объектов.

Translation: MOSCOW, January 24 – RIA Novosti. The Russian military reported for the first time the destruction of a French SAMP-T anti-aircraft missile system in a special military operation zone. “Within 24 hours, ammunition depots of the 31st mechanized and 26th artillery brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a French-made SAMP-T anti-aircraft missile system were destroyed,” says the military department’s report. The SAMP-T air defense system is designed for air defense of troops and mechanized formations located on the march, as well as providing air defense cover for stationary objects.  

SAMP-T is a good ol' Aster family missile complex and it can reach to 100 kilometer range. But in case of IL-76 it could be even IRIS-T. Doesn't matter, really, the issue is simple, this was done deliberately and again only for PR purposes. Apart from 6 members of the crew of IL-76 and 3 liaison officers from Russia, Kiev regime slaughtered 65 own people. This is everything you need to know about this whole situation. Some people often bring up the argument of some sort of "success" on part of Washington in a sense that "Slavs are fighting Slavs". This argument is BS--Slavic Czechs worked for Nazi Germany non-stop in WW II and had very few problems doing it, many Poles hate Russian guts, Ukies marked their participation in both Chechnya wars primarily as snipers and torturers of Russian POWs who would give the run for the money to Dr. Mengele and SS. In present 404 there are very few people who have sympathy for Russia--this is brainwashed, hateful population (primarily) and it will face a long road of denazification once the SMO concludes. Nazi is Nazi, no matter the ethnicity or religion.  

In The News.

Russia is not asking. 

Moscow is not asking for the lifting of sanctions, but urges Western states to fix the problems they have created on the global food market, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Sunday. “We are not asking for the removal of sanctions – those are problems that deserve to be dealt with separately. We will simply develop our economy now by counting on reliable partners and not on those who have once again proved their total incapacity… As far as food is concerned, our Western colleagues... should remove the obstacles they themselves have created,” the diplomat said after talks with his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, in Egypt. He noted that Moscow would not have agreed to Friday’s deal unblocking Ukraine’s grain exports if the issue of freeing up Russian exports had not been resolved. Moscow is now counting on the UN to stick to its promise and assist in removing restrictions holding back Russian grain shipments.

In fact, by analogy with RUSI's rather grossly delayed (by many years) report The Return of Industrial Warfare, it is about freaking time one compiled a similar report but titled The Return of Real Economy. Ah, wait, I already did, wink, wink. In real life all those stocks' "values", "capitalization" indices, or GDP fake numbers mean jack shit. Only the ability to produce and properly distribute tangible products ranging from energy, to food, to machines, to essential services matter in order to sustain societies and allow for development and social cohesion. The combined West suddenly, however late, begins to learn about those very simple and self-evident things. 

Per Gonzalo Lira's yesterday hypothesis that Zelensky's day may be numbered. 

Gonzalo is generally correct--assassinating Zelensky is one of the scenarios which was considered from the very start and the longer the SMO goes, the higher is the probability of such scenario being acted upon by the US. This, at this stage, however, makes no difference whatsoever for Russia because judging by the latest statements from the very political top of Russia, especially today's statement by Lavrov in Egypt:

КАИР, 24 июл — РИА Новости. Россия обязательно поможет украинцам избавиться от антинародного и антиисторического режима, заявил министр иностранных дел Сергей Лавров на встрече с постоянными представителями стран — членов Лиги арабских государств (ЛАГ)."Нам жаль украинский народ, который заслуживает гораздо лучшего. Нам жаль украинскую историю, которая рушится на глазах, и нам жаль тех, которые поддались государственной пропаганде киевского режима, и тех, кто его поддерживает", — отметил он.

Translation: CAIRO, July 24 - RIA Novosti. Russia will definitely help Ukrainians get rid of the anti-people and anti-historical regime, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with permanent representatives of the member countries of the League of Arab States (LAS). "We pity the Ukrainian people, who deserve much better. We pity Ukrainian history, which is collapsing before our eyes, and we feel sorry for those who succumbed to the state propaganda of the Kyiv regime, and those who support it," he said.

 

Cannot get any clearer than that and it means only one thing--Russia is ready to take most of Ukraine on her balance and remake her, with the exception of areas which are historically Russian and are or will be incorporated back to Russia, into normal, docile and neutral state, fully dependent on Russia economically and in defense terms. My personal opinion is that the Western Ukraine will be given to Poland, Hungary and Romania, after proper arrangements. Russia's economic and military weight allow to accomplish this for sure. Washington and London, however, miscalculated yet again because circumstances changed dramatically since March of 2022. As Putin said: "You ain't seen nothing yet". And Gonzalo is absolutely spot on--Washington now is desperate to extricate itself from the Ukrainian catastrophe before the whole thing collapses and even spin-doctors will not be able to hide the global scale of the US military-political humiliation, which will make Afghanistan look like a child's play. And it is coming, it is almost here.

 

Per strike on Odessa port. Bernhard did a very good short write up on the matter. As you know Black Sea Fleet launched a salvo of 3M14 Kalibrs (which Russia should have ran out of in March, wink, wink):

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed striking targets in the major Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, revealing that its missiles hit military infrastructure and arms stockpiles. “In the seaport of Odessa, on the territory of a shipyard, a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, supplied by the US to the Kiev regime, have been destroyed by sea-based high-precision long-range missiles,” the ministry said on Sunday. The attack also crippled a repair facility where vessels of the Ukrainian navy have been fixed, it added. The strike on the target in Odessa, which is a major trade hub in the southwest of Ukraine, came a day after the signing of a UN-brokered deal to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports.

But, as I said, read Bernhard's write up on the matter and why there is very little protestation even in the US on this matter. Moreover, I am smiling when reading news of Russian and Turkish navies (in Russian) operating together while escorting grain carriers from Odessa, with Black Sea Fleet also being responsible for de-mining of the area. What a crazy time we are living in, who would have thought)). Here is your primer for Sunday.

They May Try Again.

Everybody writes about it and the signs are there--Ukraine is trying to attack Donbass, again. As Patrick Armstrong notes today:

The team that gave us the Ukraine catastrophe is back in Washington, a US general is in Ukraine and heavy equipment is moving. A resumption of fighting would suit many in Kiev, Washington and NATO. But Moscow is not asleep and the Donbass defenders are prepared. I would expect, along with supplies, Moscow to make discreet but observable preparations. If that doesn’t stop an attack, Moscow has the long-range weapons to interdict assembly areas and routes and pretend deniability. If that doesn’t work, I would expect a reprise of 2008, only faster. What’s the West going to do in the face of a fait accompli? Shout more? Sanctions? A crushing defeat will produce reverberations in Kiev: very few of the Ukrainian forces in Crimea stayed loyal to Kiev and Zelensky was elected on a promise of making things better, not worse. A week should tell us which it is.

It is exactly the same team of one trick ponies in D.C. who assured that in the long run Donbass will join Russia's as her administrative region and that, this time, Russia may appear in person and this will "reverberations" in Kiev which will accelerate already proceeding apace the process of the statehood failure in Ukraine. Three factors define West's actions as of now:

1. Western Europe wants to "unload" this shithole of a country it created on Russia. Russians do not want to pay for this banana locality, so the only way to "coerce" Russians is make sure they defeat Ukraine. OK. Russian Armed Forces can wipe out Ukrainian Army in several days but, as Patrick Armstrong correctly observes, the Georgian scenario could be in store--Russia will demolish Ukraine's military and will bulldoze the remnants of Ukrainian statehood to the West.  

2. For the United States which increasingly reminds of Ukraine, just on a much larger scale, the factor of visceral Russo-phobia and desire to engage Russia's resources in any way in Ukraine--personal military encounter with Russia means many bad things for the United States and its military, hence proxies--should not be discounted. Plus, in a face of an economic catastrophe the Biden Administration needs some distraction--I told you, one trick ponies. 

3. Both the so called President Zelensky, who is a clown (literally) by his background and a bunch of people in his "Administration", controlled from the US Embassy in Kiev, are not people who actually have any grasp of the reality and act on pure neurotic instincts in their constant fight for a position at the ever shrinking trough of a disintegrating Ukrainian economy. So, Zelensky may decide to commit a political (and who knows which one additionaly) suicide and commence operations in Donbass seeing them as the only exit he has from a clusterfuck which Ukraine and its bosses from EU and US created in the midst of Europe. 

Too bad, as they say. This time Kremlin has one major factor playing for it, which was not the case in 2014--by different estimates, majority of Russians had it with Ukrainians. No, not with Ukraine, but namely Ukrainians as people. Ukrainians have got what they wanted when stating for the last seven years to Russian faces "We will never be brothers" (in Russian). Overwhelming majority of Russians today say--OK. In fact, these are the Russians now who do not want to be "brothers" and will have no compunction about demolishing, if it comes to this, Ukrainian Army. In 2014-15, there were still huge reservations on Russia's part in this regard, today--the hell with it. As is the hell with the EU and the United States. But I am sure if it comes to it Russia will start with high profile, but less costly in terms of personnel, strikes on whatever is left of Ukie Air Force and its bases, it will destroy Ukie Air Defence and then will burn all tanks, APCs and artillery at the line of contact. 

So, whatever Russia will do, ranging from behind the scene support for LDNR to the outright annihilation of Kiev regime, she has options and escalation dominance, Kiev does not. If EU stops Nord Stream-2 as a result of the United States pressure and the use of Donbass conflagration as means of coercing Europeans to commit energy suicide, as was stated not for once, for Russia the stoppage of the Nord Stream-2 is merely a bump in the road. As latest events in Russian-Chinese relations indicate, Russia finally reoriented herself economically to the East and it seems actual Russian-Chinese alliance is de facto in existence now.  

Russia and China have signed an agreement to build an international lunar space station that will be “open to all interested countries”, Beijing’s space agency announced on Tuesday.The two countries “will use their accumulated experience in space science, research and development as well as the use of space equipment and space technology to jointly develop a road map for the construction of an international lunar scientific research station (ILRS),” China National Space Administration said in a statement.Though no timeline is accorded to the project, the lunar science station is being envisioned as a “complex of experimental and research facilities created on the surface and/or in orbit of the moon,” Russia’s Roscosmos space agency was quoted as saying by CNN.

Those European nations, who would want to join any major Eurasian economic and science projects--they will be welcomed and the selection process already started. 

An Italian-Swiss pharmaceutical company has agreed to produce Russia's Sputnik V vaccine in Italy, the first such deal in the European Union, a trade body said Tuesday. "The vaccine will be produced from July 2021 in (pharma company) Adienne factories in Lombardy," northern Italy, a spokesman for the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce, Stefano Maggi, told AFP. "Ten million doses will be produced between July 1 and January 1, 2022," he added, describing it as the "first agreement on the European level for the production on EU territory of the Sputnik vaccine".

You see how easy it is? No coercion, no imposing oneself, as it was with Russia in 1980s through early 2000s. Nope, just keep the door open wide enough for people to see the opening and if they will step in is entirely up to them. It is so easy to live when you don't owe anything to anyone and you don't need anything from anyone.