Well, Israel Got A Problem.

A big one. As Haaretz reports: 

European Countries Restrict Defense Supplies to Israel, Disrupting Naval Buildup. Israeli military officials say European countries are withholding components for German-built Israeli warships and denying vessels port access, as the IDF seeks to expand the navy's strategic role. 

What many people constantly forget, having IDF blowing smoke up their asses, is that in terms of  military-industrial complex Israel is not and never was a superpower. It produced a decent Merkava tank a few types of artillery and firearms, it also built "indigenous" Lavi fighter plane (a stolen F-16) which resulted in scandal with Reagan Admin, and she built some nukes. But in terms of everything else--most of it is either licensed or, such as the case with Israel's AD, simply products of Boeing or Raytheon with Israeli labels on them. Here is the story in detail:

In recent months, a shift in European defense export policies has begun to affect Israel's military procurement programs. According to reports, multiple European nations have moved to restrict or pause the supply of defense-related materials destined for Israel. These restrictions are creating logistical and strategic challenges for the Israeli defense establishment, specifically regarding the maintenance and expansion of its naval fleet. While the specific countries involved and the exact nature of the restricted equipment remain largely undisclosed in public briefings, the impact on Israel's naval buildup is becoming increasingly apparent. The procurement of specialized components and systems, often sourced from European defense contractors, has faced delays or outright cancellations. This development marks a notable change in the defense cooperation landscape between Israel and its European partners, who have historically been key suppliers of military technology. The situation highlights a growing tension between European foreign policy objectives and long-standing defense partnerships. As European governments face increased domestic and international pressure regarding the conflict in Gaza, defense exports are being scrutinized more heavily. This has led to a more cautious approach to approving export licenses for military hardware. For Israel, the disruption is forcing a re-evaluation of its supply chain dependencies, as the country seeks to ensure its naval readiness despite the loss of access to certain European markets and technologies.

Here is IDF's submarine component: 

Israel operates 3 Dolphin-I and 2 Dolphin-II class SSKs--all of them built in Germany. Israel cannot build submarines, nor can it build major surface combatants. It can build missile boats, that is the extent of it. Once one removes a lot of stolen (including literally) European and US technology--Israel doesn't look that impressive, to put it mildly. Israel's naval ambitions rest entirely on foreign-built technology. They certainly "upgrade" (as was done by Israel before) some ships with whatever they deem superior, but the reality is sad for Israel. As it was with BiBi today at the UN. 

Modern Israeli military is not what it is being portrayed by pro-Israeli Zionist Hollywood. And there is a reason they censure any photos and video from Israel re: Iranian missiles hitting targets by penetrating "the best AD in the world". They are really good at PR and terrorism, though. I'll give them that. 

Ah, Yes. Those Proverbial ...

 ... and for some reason non-existent "Judeo-Christian Values" Zionist media in the US try to impose on hoi polloi. 

You can see yourself how IDF creep "honors" Virgin Mary because their "religion" tells them that they are the best chosen people. Many so called Christians in the US agree. 

This Is Called ...

 ... stating numbers--the only language operational and strategic level planners understand. Larry is spot on here. But it also brings up the issue of (lack of) IDF's real military prowess--it is extremely low and most of it is a set of fairy tales, while in reality IDF cannot even conduct proper police operation of medium to high intensity without committing a genocide.  

Mind you, this is the force which was made to be admired by Pentagon whose own record is dismal, to put it mildly. No wonder then that it all turned out to be not what was pushed on all of us by Mossad, AIPAC, Hollywood and other people whose ideas about warfare are that of the amateurish myths. 

Larry Wilkerson ...

 ... provides a good summary. 

There is really very little which could be added here, because neocons and their shills in Pentagon and CIA do not understand warfare and what real strategy--not some BS PowerPoint presentation--are. But then again, one cannot develop professional understanding of REAL war when the US military is forced to masturbate non-stop on the "accomplishments" of Israeli so called military. 

Sir, I salute you for your courage and being true to your military and civil duties and oaths. 

I See, It Didn't Go As Planned...

 ... but didn't war criminals from the US MSM were trying to convince us that Israel's economy and Army are just the finest thing ever? They sure did. And now...

Israeli Army Economizing on Weapons Use Amid Arms Embargoes, Sources Say. To better prioritize use of weaponry, the Israeli army raised the rank of officers allowed to approve use of mortars and other weaponry as ammunition inventories dwindle. 

Hey, it's Haaretz today, not me. You see, the real war is a bitch. As many pointed out--Nixon had to take the US off gold standard precisely because otherwise he wouldn't be able to finance the war in Vietnam. You see, this is the USA of 1971--still the largest and most advanced industrial economy in the world at a time. Yet, even the US couldn't do it against Vietnamese, who, while supported by the Soviet Union primarily, and China, had one thing which the US didn't have--love for their nation and heroism while fighting on their land. Now, consider the issue of the Middle East--as I repeat ad nauseam, Israel's economy depends on many critical supplies on Israrl's slap bitch, the US. Once war gets into protracted attrition mode, Israel has no real resources. Especially so human ones. 

London CNN  — In late September, as Israel’s nearly year-long war widened and its credit rating was downgraded yet again, the country’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said that, while Israel’s economy was under strain, it was resilient. “Israel’s economy bears the burden of the longest and most expensive war in the country’s history,” Smotrich said on September 28, a day after Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, ratcheting fears that tensions with the militant group would turn into a full-blown conflict. “The Israeli economy is a strong economy that even today attracts investments.” 

While even the imbeciles from all kinds of "rating agencies" get it, reality is--Israel is the country with a population of around 9-9.5 million, that is to say around the size of population of Hungary, which means no matter how they BS everybody about their "hi-tech" and shit, Israel simply has no (zilch, zero) population-industrial base to survive on its own, especially against the enemy which is highly motivated and is ready for the long haul. Period. I omit here extremely low tactical literacy and combat qualities of IDF. One cannot fight physics and math, it is impossible. In the end, Iran alone dwarfs Israel economically in real terms, not in those BS GDP numbers. Remember, CINC--Combined Index of National Capability? Please, find me Israel here... I can see Iran clearly, though. 

You Can Only Dance Around...

 ... the unrelenting reality of real industrial output, military and political forces. You can try to get colorful clothes and bright makeup like in Kabuki Theater but that doesn't stop making it a theater. Reality doesn't care...

WASHINGTON/BERLIN, Oct 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden canceled his upcoming trip to Germany and Angola on Tuesday in a blow to plans for the highest level meeting ever of the Ramstein group of Ukraine arms donors that aimed to underscore unwavering support for Kyiv. The Ramstein group was set to meet at the highest level on the sidelines of Biden's Oct. 10-13 state visit to Germany, which would have been the first U.S. state visit in nearly 40 years. But the White House said Biden was postponing his trip to both Germany and Angola to handle preparations for Hurricane Milton and relief efforts after Hurricane Helene which last month killed more than 200 people. It added that it was still working on how the Ramstein event would work out, with Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talking later on Tuesday."I just don't think I can be out of the country at this time," Biden said, adding that he hoped to reschedule the trip "and all the conferences I said I'd participate in".

The whole notion that a walking corpse can have any input on probable calamity of the hurricane is down right preposterous. Something much bigger is in play here. As Reuters asks--Ramstein Over? Well, not so fast, there is always pompous chihuahua of London, but in reality somebody has to "decide" on those "long-range strikes" on Russia and this is not easy. In the end, there are so many fat prestigious American, British, French and German targets for warmup in Europe and Middle East. But the comic relief comes, as always, by the way of Germany:

The German official reiterated Scholz's readiness for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, provided that they offer a prospect for progress on the way to a just and sustainable peace, but warned Russia to not interpret this as weakness.

Somebody has to tell this German official (and Scholz) that if they have requests or something to say--here is the phone of Presidential Administration in Moscow 8 495 625 35 81. This is the Section on Reviewing addresses of citizens and organizations, so Scholz may call there, they may connect him (as an exception) immediately with the department head and they may discuss what bothers Scholz and Germany. 

 

In related news, as some info pours in, it becomes clear that IDF is having a hell of a time in South Lebanon, since so far they managed to take 10.5 square kilometers of territory and their losses... well, we know how they report them.

Daniel Davis And Larry...

 ... had an excellent conversation about Israel and Hezbollah. You can read some at Larry's blog also. 

It is clear that it is indiscriminate, against civilians, tantrum with employment of almost everything Israel has. Here is a Russian retired general Pulikovsky (in Russian): "Reputational soap bubble of IDF have burst"(c). 

So, this is not former junior officer like me saying this, this is the guy with an experience of army level command and Academy of General Staff behind him. In other words, he knows what he is talking about. Here, it looks like Atlit special forces base of IDF has been hit and it burns, alright. Something heavy flew in from Hezbollah and Israelis admit a hit. 

So, who knows what it will evolve into, but we have to be patient. Larry is absolutely right when he states that the whole idea for both Israel and 404 is to somehow get the US involved, thinking that it will make some difference. That's not a strategy. It is a wishful thinking. Ah, yes, those proverbial reputational soap bubbles.

General Pulikovsky...

 ... a man of honor and rich military experience, now of advanced age, speaks here about IDF's "reputational soap bubble" which has been burst (in Russian). 

Most who read this blog knew it for a long time. But now "military record" of IDF has this:

The true death toll from the war in Gaza could exceed 186,000, five times higher than the 37,396 reported last month by the enclave’s health authorities, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal. While the Israeli government has long disputed the ministry’s figures, they are accepted as reliable by the UN, and quietly acknowledged to be true by the Israeli military. According to a team of British, American, and Canadian researchers, this figure could swell to 186,000 when “ indirect deaths” are counted. “Indirect deaths,” they wrote in an article published last week, include those killed by disease, hunger, thirst, and exposure.

Mind you, IDF is held in very high regard among many in the US military. I guess, genocide is a skill IDF and Israel will be known for at this history's segment. Crime against humanity--that's the name of it. The United States supported it. No further comments are necessary...

Larry At Judge's Program.

Hitting a nail on the head.

 

Excellent Piece From Larry.

It is about IDF and as Larry hits the nail on the head:

Israel has enjoyed an undeserved reputation as an exceptional military power. The reality of Israel’s military readiness is being exposed as it struggles to gain control of Gaza. Israel is relying on its air force to carry out relentless bombing of civilian areas while its ground forces are meeting stiff resistance from Palestinian fighters. Israel’s big problem is that it relies heavily on reserve forces. Please take a look at the ages and ranks of some recent Israeli Occupation Force soldiers killed in action in Gaza. It is quite revealing:

The key word "undeserving". Much of this reputation has been created out of nothing by the Hollywood and US media, much of them under the control or influence of AIPAC. Read excellent note at Larry's blog in full.  

Send This Rambo To The Real War.

And then see how he will talk and sing once he experiences it, or is taken POW by Akhmat guys. But then again, Apti Alaudinov and his people are pure military class, they treat POWs humanely and it is in Russia's combat manuals. You cannot buy class, you are either brought up with it, or you are not--simple as that.

Jimmy is spot on, it is the case of Jerusalem Redneck. The whole thing is down right a grotesque caricature on serious military. Sadly, it is not a joke or put on.

You Reap What You Sow.

Saudi Arabia's Asharq Al-Awsat reports today (Google does a decent job translating from Arabic):

وأكدت المصادر أن إسرائيل نفذت فقط غارتين جويتين على سوريا بعد تلك الحادثة، بتنسيق مع القوات الروسية. وفي كل مرة، كان الروس يبدون تبرمهم من هذا النوع من العمليات. والمعروف أن حكومة بنيامين نتنياهو فشلت حتى الآن في تسوية الخلافات مع موسكو. فالرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين صد مطالب نتنياهو للقائه على الأراضي الروسية طيلة الشهرين الفائتين. وعندما وافق على لقاء نتنياهو في باريس، الأسبوع الماضي، خلال حفل عشاء ضمن الاحتفالات بذكرى مائة سنة على الحرب العالمية الأولى، أصر على أن يكون اللقاء قصيراً (ربع ساعة) ومقتضباً، وذلك بعد جهود إسرائيلية وأميركية كثيرة مع موسكو. ومع أن نتنياهو اعتبره لقاءً مهماً ومفيداً، فإن بوتين اعتبره لقاءً عابراً، مؤكداً أنه من غير المرجح أن يلتقي معه مرة أخرى في المستقبل المنظور. وتبين من تقرير داخلي في المؤسسة الأمنية في تل أبيب أن «روسيا أوضحت لإسرائيل بطرق مختلفة أن الوضع الذي كان قائماً في السابق قد انتهى، لأن عمليات تل أبيب في سوريا تضر بمشروع موسكو الأساسي في المنطقة، أي استعادة الحكومة السورية سيطرتها على معظم أراضي البلاد، لضمان مصالح روسيا الاقتصادية والأمنية في سوريا. وهي تستغل حادثة الطائرة بكل قسوة لتحقيق أهدافها». وأكد التقرير أن الجانب الروسي بدأ يستخدم لهجة صارمة، تتسم بعض الأحيان بفظاظة، في اتصالات التنسيق مع العسكريين الإسرائيليين عبر ما يسمى «الخط الساخن»، الخاص بمنع وقوع الحوادث 

Translation: The sources confirmed that Israel carried out only two air raids on Syria after that incident, in coordination with Russian forces. Each time, the Russians began to sign these kinds of operations. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to settle differences with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin blocked Netanyahu's demands to meet him on Russian territory for the past two months. When he agreed to meet with Netanyahu in Paris last week at a gala dinner marking the 100th anniversary of the First World War, he insisted that the meeting should be short (one-quarter of an hour) and brief, following many Israeli and American efforts with Moscow. Although Netanyahu considered it an important and useful meeting, Putin considered it a passing meeting, asserting that he is unlikely to meet with him again in the foreseeable future. "Russia has made it clear to Israel in different ways that the situation that existed in the past is over, because the Tel Aviv operations in Syria are harming Moscow's basic project in the region, that is, the restoration of the Syrian government's control over most of the country's territory, To ensure Russia's economic and security interests in Syria. It is taking advantage of the aircraft incident with all its cruelty to achieve its goals. " The report said that the Russian side began to use a strict tone, sometimes crude, in coordination contacts with the Israeli military through the so-called hotline, the prevention of accidents in Syria, between the parties.

This report comes on the heels of my publisher sending me yesterday a link to Bernhard's (MOA) excellent piece on Israel, which I read by then anyway. But Asharq Al-Awsat reports also on a significant increase of the sorties by Russian VKS' aircraft in Syrian air space and all this fits perfectly the pattern which I (well, forgive me, but can I feed my ego at least once in a while?) predicted within hours of IL-20s tragedy. This brings up this ever important issue (and I will soon resume my Russia's Non-Jewish History series of posts) of true influence of alleged Jewish (Israeli) lobby on Russia. As I already stated not for once, Russia's foreign and defense policies are immune to any kind of influences which contradict Russia's crucial national interests. Russia is interested in stable and secure Israel but not at the expense of own strategic interests. For sure, Israel has her own legitimate security concerns but the main question is what is the extent of this legitimacy? I don't know, I am not a specialist in the region, but the issue of new settlements and, inevitably, of Golan Heights will come up once Syria recovers most of her territory and will start in earnest postbellum restoration. 

Theoretically, Russia can guarantee Israel's survival but it will come with a lofty price tag. Obviously, for Israeli and American Likudniks (neocons, Israeli-firsters, what have you), who got used to kick US Congress around any way they want, such a disposition where they have to actually listen and not talk is huge humiliation, but, I hope, even most delusional Zionists both within Israel and US power structures, must recognize that Russia does have many strategic options, they--don't. As Asharq Al-Awsat reports:

 كشفت مصادر سياسية في تل أبيب أن القيادة العسكرية الإسرائيلية تبدي قلقاً من فشل القيادة السياسية في تسوية الأزمة القائمة مع روسيا في الشهرين الفائتين، منذ سقوط طائرة التجسس «إيل - 20» في 17 سبتمبر (أيلول) الماضي. وتقول إن استمرار هذه الأزمة يتسبب في تناقض مصالح مع روسيا، وبات يضيق على إسرائيل في خياراتها القتالية ضد الوجود الإيراني في سوريا، وحتى ضد نشاط «حزب الله» في لبنان.

Translation: Political sources in Tel Aviv revealed that the Israeli military leadership is concerned about the failure of the political leadership to resolve the crisis with Russia in the past two months, since the fall of the spy plane "El - 20" on 17 September. She says that the continuation of this crisis is causing a conflict of interests with Russia, and is narrowing Israel's choice of combat against the Iranian presence in Syria, and even against the activity of "Hezbollah" in Lebanon. 

The name of the "crisis", of course, are two (or three--who knows how many) battalions of S-300PMU2 Favorit and the evolution of this whole situation could serve as a classic example of the  Force In Being translating into tangible (geo)political results. Russia really wanted to work with Israel but Israel, obviously, grossly overestimated own capabilities, especially against the background of gross underestimation  of Russian ones--a scenario replayed constantly in the US which still remains enamored with Israel's military "achievements" against traditionally weak Arab military and para-military formations. Things are  changing, though. I will go out on a limb here and speculate that Syrian Arab Army's prestige among Arabs is extremely high, as is prestige of Hafez al-Assad, who defied Israel, international Jihad, Turkey and NATO. Syria IS emerging as a pivotal state of Arab secular nationalism whether intentionally or not--but it is the fact of life. Read MOA's review on some indications of that. Long term geopolitical, economic and cultural ramifications of that for the region are immense and Russia is only happy to benefit from that, apart from satisfaction from playing a key role in saving the last secular Arab state. Just one small fact: 

 SCAC signs the LOI with Alexcina LLC/15.11.2018

One may argue, justifiably, that this is so far only LOI--sure, but the breakthrough for Russian civilian aircraft into rich Gulfies' market is a good sign, considering the fact that Russian weapons there are in high demand and Qatar and Saudis are really interested on getting their hands on S-400s. For Arabs, in general, the fact of containment of Israel is huge and it matters that Israel was contained by Russian weapons. Israel has only herself to blame for finding herself in such a conundrum but, and this is my profound conviction, Israel got used to beating on weak and exerting an immense influence on the United States internally so much, that she simply forgot that Russia is not the United States and it is inconceivable to have THIS in Russia, in the US--it is a normal occurrence. And that is the difference Israel should understand and the faster she does it, the better it will be for all parties involved. In the end, you reap what you sow.

So That Is What Called "Christian" In America.

The level of delusion, not to mention of smugness of this "scholar" of international relations and of theology is off the charts. Especially against the background of 55 Palestinians killed and 2,500+ wounded today. 

Fox News Host: Trump Fulfilled Biblical Prophecy By Moving U.S. Embassy To Jerusalem

These are the "grounds" upon which the whole US foreign policy is built--finding parallels, nay--direct relations to some Biblical kings. And we all know that US Congress, which is in the pockets of and is run by American Israeli Lobby (plus Saudis), labored day and night for more than 30 years to fulfill some Biblical prophesy. It took Donald Trump (and his rather pro-Israeli closest keen) to oblige. I can totally see the future of US foreign policy being built upon consultations with California Psychics (2.99 a minute of "reading") and eventually being totally based on Voodoo practices. 

Yet, one can not close the eyes on the fact of a real massacre of Palestinians while US-Israeli (soon to be completely indistinguishable) luminaries were opening US Jerusalem Embassy. It is also rather fascinating observing the speed with which the news of this atrocity by "valiant" IDF simply disappeared from Yahoo News page featured news of the day--I think killing of scores of people and then wounding them in thousands is a big fvcking news--it is a war crime. Yet, those news literally--evaporated after trending for an hour, two? 

Things are getting hot in the ME, they will get even hotter that is until Israel lobby will not run the US completely into ground (it almost succeeded now) or real Armageddon will happen and, unlike this bimbo "judge" from FOX, I know one really serious fact--the physical impact of the, say, 600 kiloton warhead on the vicinity of some important object is such, that this object and its vicinity have no use whatsoever for a long period of time--they cease to exist. But as long as the "prophesy" is fulfilled, right? Don't listen to me, though, here is an opinion of an excellent military professional, Arabist and specialist in the area. 

Trump thinks he is a friend of Israel?  He has just screwed Israel out of any chance for a peace agreement with the Palestinians.  Urged on by the arch Zionists like Kushner he came to believe that the status of Jerusalem was the Gordian Knot blocking movement toward a peace settlement.  In the best "Art of the Deal" fashion he has now acted to remove this issue frozen in amber from the negotiating table in the belief that this will restore fluidity to the situation.  IMO he is wrong.  This is not a business deal. 

So, Pirro, who is a practicing Catholic, sure as hell has a peculiar sense of justice (lawyer, of course she is) and interpretation of Bible where, if my Alzheimer doesn't fail me, not a word is written about US Embassy's move to Jerusalem as being some fulfillment of some "prophesy", but then again, what do you expect from some TV bimbo who would feel herself in her proper place inside American so called Christian Zionist cabal--main, so called Christian, enablers of neocon agenda in the US. After all, we all know Jesus was an American.