Alexander Speaks Some Sense.

Of course, Prince Potemkin being a favorite of Catherine the Great and the founder of Tavrida Governorship, which saw Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson etc. being established.  

Ukraine, of course, didn't exist then, but it is difficult to explain to morons from Ivy League "history" and "international relations" courses because, as I am on record, most of the US "diplomacy" is populated by provincial simpletons, like Anthony Blinken, who are only good at:

I am not going to discuss "Skunk" Baxter's guitar playing, because my most favorite Steely Dan albums are Gaucho and Aja (FYI, Mark Knopfler plays on Gaucho), which is NOT the first rate, but that is the modern US government.  I am sure Tony tries to convince himself that he is not a shlimazel. I agree, he is merely a schmuck.

Alexander's Excellent Review Of Events.

I think it is a very good video by Alexander, so I post it here. 

Plus, he knows internal European dynamics much better than me. 
 

Excellent Political Commentary From Both Alexes.

Thank you to our own Thomas Malthaus who directed me to this excellent video by Duran people. As you know I cannot possibly catch everything even from my preferred sources, but this discussion by both Alexes is excellent and gives a good situational awareness of Europe's political dynamics. 

Excellent conversation.

While I Am Making New Video.

Here is excellent summary by Alexander about the clusterfuck which modern Germany is and what it accomplishes by means of her new foreign minister. Russians, obviously, laugh all the way to the bank and for all intents and purposes Russia has already returned, or is about to, her investment into NS2. 

You literally cannot make this shit up. 

In related news, many lament what they call Putin's coup in India.

Russia last week announced a major new energy cooperation deal with India that threatens the very core of the U.S.’s fightback strategy against Beijing’s and Moscow’s expansionism in the Middle East and beyond. The main hydrocarbons deal will be for Russia, via oil giant Rosneft, to supply almost 15 million barrels of crude to Indian Oil, by the end of 2022. Given the massive geopolitical ramifications of any sizeable oil deal, it was entirely legitimate for Igor Sechin, Rosneft chief executive officer and close friend of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to say of the deal that: “The signing of a new oil supply contract confirms the strategic nature of the long-term partnership between Rosneft and Indian Oil.”The deal takes on even more significance as it was just one part of 28 investment deals between Russia and India signed during the very recent visit of Putin himself to Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. These covered a broad range of subjects, including not just oil, gas, and petrochemicals, steel, and shipbuilding, but also military matters.

Sechin is on record about the fate of USD as main currency in hydrocarbons trade, which, in his words, is very unreliable. Look it up, it is widely available through respectable news sources. Same as mythological calamity of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT, which in reality is not that big of a deal, de-dollarization of oil trade is in progress and, really, the only decisive reason this didn't occur earlier was because the US would provide "attitude adjustment" by bombing the shit out of any country which has oil reserves, because oil reserves are primarily located in countries which cannot defend themselves. Russia and China, obviously, can and in our fast changing world, if it comes to it, Russia can provide necessary security guarantees to those who want to use other currencies in such a trade. 

Obviously, the dawning understanding that nothing could be done about it drives many in the US completely mad and makes them hysterical. Such as this specimen:

President Biden, more than a little bit upset by this other president and his amassing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border, says No and recently threatened sanctions in a trans-Atlantic video session with Putin. Biden is falling short, but gets that Ukraine is now an advancing democracy and wants to go its own way despite once being the most important part of Russia. Ukraine already is combating Russia-supported rebels, and Biden understands that Hungary, Poland and the Baltic states could be next in line for takeovers. The threat also is to Europe, just as Putin sees a threat to the new Soviet Union if he does not ward off NATO and Europe by making sure that certain border nations belong to him. Yes, it’s the case that Russia is dwindling in population and wealth, with the selling of gas and oil pretty much a definition of its limited economy. What it lacks in money, however, it makes up for in nuclear weaponry, enough to just maybe blow up half the universe, and the development of hypersonic missiles that the United States does not have.

This childish rubbish is characteristic of 90% of the US "journalism" and this tune about "dwindling population and wealth" is so out of whack, that one has to question mental abilities of this dude, Jay Ambrose:

Who, if being an ignoramus is not bad enough, passes for a "conservative" journo.  Well, there you go. Enjoy, while I am making my new video.

Anti-hype.

As you all know now, Presidents Putin and Biden are to meet in Geneva on June 16 this year for a summit. Here is Alexander Mercouris giving a time line leading to the decision to hold meeting and making some very good points on the overall state of the Russian-American relations, or whatever passes for them nowadays. 

But these are the last 15 or so minutes of Alexander's review of Lavrov's interview to Russian weekly AIF (Arguments and Facts) which are of a particular interest. I wrote about this many times and two and a half months ago I pointed out, commenting on some wet dreams which pass today in the US for geopolitical expertise, this:

It has to be clearly understood also, that Russia and China are the two pillars of a unification  of a colossus of Eurasia in a single, well defended, economic space whose size dwarfs anything the United States is capable to offer to Russia even if the United States suddenly finds itself friendly to Russia and willing to sincerely develop mutual relations. The time for this has passed long ago, and as they say--timing is everything. The US is, generally, economic non-entity for Russia when compared to China, and is of interest to Russia only as a global security risk, whose departure should be negotiated and arranged in a peaceful manner. Mr. Olsen may find Russian-Chinese growing space partnership troubling, but, hey, the United States has Elon Musk, let him provide for Lunar station. I heard he is really competent (cough, cough). 

And then there is this time thingy, both Russians and Chinese think in terms of long historic trends. They think with historic time scales, the United States lacks this perspective due to its elites being grossly uncultured and badly educated, plus, as I am on record for years, there is this issue with cause and effect, which increasingly manifests in the US scholarship and politics. That is why Russia has nobody to talk to in the modern US. This piece by Olsen demonstrates my point perfectly. They really do think that they are that important and attractive as to ignore reality on the ground. But it always bites. It is a bitter admission for me, because at some point of time I did see a window of opportunity for combined West, including Russia, to become something else--it never materialized and there is nothing to discuss any more in this respect, no matter what kind of ridiculous fantasies and delusions modern US elites try to present as a viable strategy.

Basically, most of what was said or written by Alexander, Pepe Escobar, Andrei Raevsky (The Saker), Patrick Armstrong and me, among many other observers, is unfolding in a front of our eyes and Russian-Chinese alliance begins to take shape be that unified position on the history of WW II or on global stability, or be that initial operational integration such as was observed at Vostok-2018 maneuvers or joint air patrols and Russia aiding China with her anti-missile early warning system--it is like, dude...

There is NO fvcking way the US can split Russia and China from each-other. With what? Remember this? Can you imagine the scale of riches and prosperity possible in Eurasia? Just think about it. France, ever so vigilant, begins to suspect something:

Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Macron said that "with Russia, the policy of progressive sanctions on frozen situations is no longer an effective policy." "I think that we are at a moment of truth in our relationship with Russia, which should lead us to rethink the terms of the tension that we decide to put in place," the leader added. Asked by reporters as to how the EU can put forward its political objectives in cases like that of the jailing of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny, Macron pushed back, asking. "What would you like us to do? Do we start an armed conflict? Do we completely cut off relations? Do we go further with sanctions – but where to?"

Riiight. Someone builds a gigantic common market in Eurasia and is planning human exploration of Mars using new types of propulsion, others discover new genders and support all kind of lowlifes such as Navalny or Neo-Nazis in Kiev. Hey, free will, free will. So the United States still can produce some Force majeure before Geneva summit to kill the summit or try to frame Putin  but at this stage it doesn't matter. It is very anti-hype and almost anti-climatic and this state of the affairs is brilliantly summarized by Leo Tolstoy, and I hope you know what quote from War and Peace I am talking about.

How "Stretching" Looks like.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) made an astute operational-strategic observation yesterday when noted that:

I can speculate about one interesting option: the real goal of these moves might be to force the Ukrainian to keep forces stationed along the coast to try prevent a Russian amphibious assault (not that I believe that any combo of Ukie forces could do that).  The more forces are guarding the coast, the less forces are available for an attack on the LDNR.  Also, since the Ukies (and the US+NATO) can easily track these ships, the Russian could decide to march them up and down the Ukrainian coast in order to a) keep the Ukrainian guessing where the supposed landing might be and b) to have these forces ready to support a LDNR or even Russian push towards Mariupol and further (Nikolaev, Odessa).   

Now you can see how it looks like, observing how 4 Baltic and Northern Fleets' BDKs (Large Amphibious Ships) pass through Bosporus yesterday on their way to the Black Sea.

These ships are of a good ol' Ropucha-class (pr.775) of the Soviet times (many of them were built in Poland) and are capable of hauling a variety of armored vehicles ranging from tanks to APCs and 300+ personnel of naval infantry (marines). So, once you add these guys to the already substantial organic amphibious component of the Black Sea Fleet, now augmented with 10 or so of Serna-class fast landing craft. Well, you get the idea--Russia can land, if need be, at least one full brigade of marines anywhere along the Black Sea coast and Ukraine, certainly, is forced now to consider what it has to do and what forces it needs to allocate along its coast to at least hold this force off for a little while. 

All these deployments are performed by Russia in order to remove any idiotic thoughts from whatever is running Ukraine from Kiev and make sure that they do not attempt any moves on LDNR. Some people go further and even propose that Russia, actually, has everything in place to solve Ukraine's issue once and for all. Yes, that is true, Russia has enough forces to dispose of the proto-Nazi Ukrainian state but will she? I don't know, but it is an option which people in Kiev view as not entirely improbable, so it remains active and contributes to Ukraine's strategic confusion (not that they ever resided outside this confused state), which plays in favor of LDNR. 

Obviously, once mighty Albion, after Biden Admin recalled two US Navy DDGs from their Black Sea deployment, decided to show that London still matters and Royal Navy announced that it will be sending two Type 45 destroyer and Type 23 frigate to the Black Sea in an apparent show of support for Ukraine's regime:

Royal Navy warships will sail for the Black Sea next month amid rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia, The Sunday Times has reported. Citing senior naval sources, the newspaper said the deployment was intended to show solidarity with Kiev and Nato allies. One Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an anti-submarine Type 23 frigate will leave the Royal Navy’s carrier task group in the Mediterranean and head through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea, according to the report.

Type 23  frigates are good ol' work horses of Royal Navy and are used primarily in ASW role, granted that they carry good ol' Harpoons (8 in total) and Sea Ceptor AD missiles, claimed to be able to fight off "saturation attacks" by super-sonic anti-shipping missiles. Type 45, which is much newer class of destroyers, carries the same Harpoons (8 in total) and is known as a dedicated air-defense ship carrying Aster AD complex. So, just another (European) iteration of US Navy's DDG of Arleigh Burke-class, albeit with a smaller AD missile load. Russia is trembling from fear and is sending diplomatic mail to London constantly begging for this terrifying British naval might to be recalled (wink, wink). I, personally, think that London, sending these two ships to the Black Sea, simply wants to remind everyone that it still exists and is somehow relevant to a massive geopolitical game three giants of US, China and Russia are playing. You know, glorious history, phantom pains from lost empire and greatness. Well, you get my drift. Moscow is "impressed", not. 

Alexander, being a British analyst and journalist has a better insight into the British thinking. So, listen to his excellent description of British reasons. 

I am glad that Alexander mentions Crimean War and its history and Tennyson (or Iron Maiden, depending on preferences) and the Light Brigade. Enjoy his voice from within UK.

About Saving Face.

Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity. 

As for NATO's build-up, it is merely a long-planned Defender-Europe 21 exercise whose timeline may have contributed to the Ukrainian stupidly with its own "build-up" and provocations, to make it look like a coordinated "effort". I can totally see those imbeciles in Kiev doing this and thinking themselves to be crafty. As Alexander correctly states, Russia, while having no desire to go all the way, especially having to take care of that shithole of a country which will fall into Russia's lap as a war trophy in case of real war, is ready for any contingency and that is the message, evidently, the West finally got. 

West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan. 

It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:

The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today.