How To Put It In Simpler Terms...

... regarding this thing: 

The US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, will allow Ukrainian forces to target Russia’s Crimean Peninsula “more effectively,” the New York Times has reported, citing senior Pentagon officials. Washington secretly sent Kiev an unspecified number of longer-range ATACMS missiles last month, US officials confirmed earlier this week, after several outlets claimed that Kiev has already begun using the new weapon against Russian targets far behind the frontlines.

Ah yes, the water is wet, the fire is hot, and Biden Administration lives vicariously through Kiev regime. Russia gives the number of new delivery of ATACMS to be around 100 and most of those will be used in a desperate attempt to damage the Crimean Bridge. This is as far as Pentagon's military competencies extend, but what you are going to do? Simple: more of 404 will be taken by Russia for creation of a buffer (or cordon sanitaire), as Peskov quoted Putin today (in Russian). So, that means a complete removal of 404 cannon fodder from the left bank of Dnepr and, possibly, some territories on the right one. Which ones? It is for the General Staff to decide. Maybe 404 can ask Pentagon to provide those oil rigs with missiles and float them on Dnepr to deter Russian Army? Great operational thinking it will be. I am sure this plan will stun Kremlin and General Staff. 

To demonstrate, however, how "principled" combined West is:

MONTREAL/OTTAWA, April 23 (Reuters) - Canada has granted Airbus a waiver to allow it to use Russian titanium in its manufacturing after becoming the first Western government to ban supplies of the strategic metal in its latest package of measures triggered by the war in Ukraine. The move gives Airbus flexibility in its Canadian plants and is expected to allay concerns that its core operations could be hit by effectively banning the import to Canada of its European-built jets that rely most heavily on lightweight titanium.

You see, those people still live in la-la-land in which they do not recognize that in Russia they are looked at as lowlifes (not Airbus, the governments) and Russia merely sticks to contract obligations across the whole spectrum of industries, from oil, gas to titanium and other goodies, such as uranium, among many others. Combined West simply cannot declare war on Russia. No, not just for military reasons--only graduates of Top Gun: Maverick school of advanced military studies believe in the US military might--for economic ones, because that would make any contracts null and void and the "transition" from Russian energy to primarily agrarian and touristy societies in EU is not completed yet. The US tries to avoid such fate. Of course even the US is being forced to live on what it earns, but that will come slightly (very slightly) later. This activity by Russia is merely upholding her renomee as a reliable partner in any endeavor. 

 

Speaking of which, Evgeny Super and Nataliya Kirillova speak (sadly only in Russian) with people from one of the Russian companies which produces fully all components for controls of CNC machine centers. 

Remarkably, as it turned out, Russia produces all necessary hardware for both CNC and other multi-axis manipulators (aka "robots"). Russia is now in pursuit of her own fully independent software which will be on par with the best Western analogues. It is all about cooperation, because Russian firms in general have most of those constituent parts already available. Well, remember who Russia's PM Mikhail Mishustin is--he has a graduate degree in design of machining complexes. This is what "Titanium" firm makes:

The brains of machining centers (up to 6-axis). Well, it is not the first time for Russia to go it alone, and she usually succeeds.

Now to a very serious situation: two lowlifes who wore the uniform of Russian Army, evidently committed atrocity by executing seven people in three of the villages in Kherson region. The shells at the places of execution matched shells which those two used, they already admitted the guilt. They have been arraigned and transferred to Military Police, the investigation is ongoing and we may know more details as times passes. Remarkably, one of them has been... imprisoned twice before: once for manufacturing and distribution of drugs and second time... for murder. Do I sense a putrid stink of Wagner? (in Russian). Now comes the second issue--this all is a belch of a liberal Criminal Code pushed through by West's agents of influence, including moratorium on death sentence, in 1990s and of the practice of organized crime group aka Wagner recruiting criminals from prisons: Prigozhin loved his own kind. But let's wait for more details. These two murderers should face a firing squad, or be hanged in one of the villages they committed this crime.

Literally, The Gas Station...

.... all kinds of gasses. You know, Russia. 

A global helium shortage has doctors worried about one of the natural gas’s most essential, and perhaps unexpected, uses: MRIs. Strange as it sounds, the lighter-than-air element that gives balloons their buoyancy also powers the vital medical diagnostic machines. An MRI can’t function without some 2,000 liters of ultra-cold liquid helium keeping its magnets cool enough to work. But helium — a nonrenewable element found deep within the Earth’s crust — is running low, leaving hospitals wondering how to plan for a future with a much scarcer supply. “Helium has become a big concern,” said Mahadevappa Mahesh, professor of radiology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine Baltimore. “Especially now with the geopolitical situation.” Helium has been a volatile commodity for years. This is especially true in the U.S., where a Texas-based federal helium reserve is dwindling as the government tries transferring ownership to private markets.

And why it is so? Here is why: 

Until this year, the U.S. was counting on Russia to ease the tight supply. An enormous new facility in eastern Russia was supposed to supply nearly one-third of the world’s helium, but a fire last January derailed the timeline. Although the facility could resume operations any day, the war in Ukraine has, for the most part, stopped trade between the two countries. Now, four of five major U.S. helium suppliers are rationing the element, said Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting. These suppliers are prioritizing the health care industry by reducing helium allotments to less essential customers.

Boy, they really thought that war-thing in Washington through. But if this was not bad enough, now toy-boy is upset. 

U.S. trade and energy policies have created a “double standard”, with Europe left paying higher prices for its natural gas, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday. France, the latest—and largest--country to withdraw from the Energy Charter Treaty, has switched from being a net exporter of energy last year, to being a net importer of energy this year, after problems with its nuclear fleet surfaced. To compensate for its declining nuclear fleet and Russia’s complete halt of natural gas shipments into the country, France has turned to the United States for LNG—only Macron is unhappy with the price it’s paying. U.S. natural gas exports to France increased 421% during the first eight months of 2022—but the value of that LNG increased by 1094% in August alone due to the higher prices of LNG. “The North American economy is making choices for the sake of attractiveness, which I respect, but they create a double standard,” Macron explained at a Brussels news conference on Friday, with the United States enjoying low energy prices at home, while exporting at record prices.“In addition, they allow state aid going to up to 80% on some sectors while it’s banned here -- you get a double standard. It comes down to the sincerity of transatlantic trade,”

The "double standard", "the sincerity of transatlantic trade"!? Lol...

Somebody explain to Macron that Europe, France included, is lunch, maybe some leftovers for dinner. Europe's only salvation was Russia, but they missed the train and are going to be consumed now. I am absolutely fascinated with the fate of Airbus and how all supply chains will react to the increasing cost of energy, and aerospace, boy, this industry is extremely energy consuming. Fascinating! Hey, Boeing needs to eat too, you know.

Something About Heroism.

For people of any serious professional regimen, be that military, police and civilian pilots, heroism could be defined in a very dry way. Carrying out own professional duties under the circumstances which drastically impede carrying those duties out is heroism. I recall, Chesley Sullenberger and his crew beating everything deadly what the fate threw at them that day of 15 January, 2009 when their professionalism saved lives of 155 people. Miracle on Hudson was both miracle and skills, incredible skills of those who flew the plane. But apart from elation when seeing on live TV all ferries on Hudson rushing to save those passengers from Hudson's cold waters, it was Sully's incredible humility which struck me then--that humility was a true measure of a true Man. That he, and his crew, were heroes we knew already the moment we could see the doors of US Airways A-320 popping open and people getting out to aircraft's wings.

Yesterday Russia got her own miracle in the corn field. Simply stunning and simply no words of the humility of this crew, which, led by their incredible first pilot, did almost impossible--saved 234 people. 

Yet again, the true measure of a Man--humility. "I just did my job". Hell no, you didn't--you told death "fvck you" and refused to surrender lives of men, women and children on-board. This is pure heroism. The similarity, despite obvious dramatic differences--water against hard ground--is startling in a sense of timing: few seconds to make the only correct decision, in case of Ural Airlines A-321, not to lower landing gear and get the aircraft into the field on its belly, as in case of Sully--splash down, don't even try to get to the nearest airport. This is "Carrying out own professional duties under the circumstances which drastically impede carrying those duties out". They succeeded and people lived. I would also be dishonest if I will not point out that in both cases these were Airbus 320-321 series aircraft which turned out to be tough mofos. Kudos to Airbus. Meanwhile, I cannot describe in words the wave of inspiration drowning Russia out now, same as it was 10 years ago with Miracle on Hudson. That is what real heroes do to people--they give them their faith in humanity back. Damir Ysupov and your flight crew--you did just that. Congratulations to both pilots on the highest honor of Heroes of Russia and cabin crew with their Orders of Courage--well done, heroes.    

Sad Day For Brazil.

But that is how "investments" work nowadays--takeovers. 

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Boeing Co on Thursday said that after taking over Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA's passenger jet unit, it will call the division Boeing Brasil - Commercial, dropping one of Brazil's most iconic company names. The name change comes after Boeing agreed to pay $4.2 billion to buy 80% of Embraer's operation making passenger jets with fewer than 150 seats. Embraer will retain a 20% stake. That division is still Embraer's most profitable and considered a gold standard of Brazilian engineering.

Of course, rebranded Embraer will stay in Brazil, for now. But I can totally feel for Brazilians--it is their icon. It is akin to Ford Mustang, an American icon, being rebranded into Toyota, or, for that matter seeing Boeing being rebranded into, well, Embraer.   

After Airbus SE took a controlling stake in the C Series division of Bombardier Inc, which competes directly with Embraer's commercial jets, it rebranded the planes Airbus A220, in line with the branding of other Airbus planes. The twin takeovers effectively halted the aerospace ambitions of Canada and Brazil and left China as the main threat to the transatlantic duopoly, with Russia and Japan making slower inroads, analysts said. The Embraer name holds special meaning in Brazil, evoking its founding in 1969 as a state-run company that grew into a national champion and was privatized in 1994. Embraer is short for Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica or Brazilian Aeronautics Company. After the deal with Boeing, Embraer will still exist as a company focused on executive jets and defense. The deal with Boeing has been approved by shareholders but is still waiting on regulatory approval.

And here is the deal with commercial (and military too, to a certain degree) aerospace. While I agree with analyst (see highlighted in yellow) in terms of Bomardier and Embraer takeovers, and, as a consequence, removal of Canada and Brazil from competition, assessing Chinese commercial aerospace industry as a threat to Airbus-Boeing duopoly is an overstatement to say the least. It rings true ONLY for China's internal, granted gigantic, commercial aircraft market, that much is true. On international arena, however, Chinese COMAC is not a competitor to either Boeing, Airbus or what is coming soon from Russia, also let's not forget where major components for such aircraft as latest upgrades for B-747 or B-787 were designed--they were designed at Russia's Boeing engineering facility. Yes, Japan is getting into the commercial aircraft market but so far those attempts with Mitsubishi's Regional Jet (MRJ) are still tightly connected with the United States, not least through, inevitably, engines.

Yes, engines, yet again. It is them, not even the ability to design and manufacture aircraft, however high level skill this is, but the ability to provide a power-plant fro aircraft which define the game. Only four (FOUR) nations possess such a strategic ability: United States (PW, GE etc.), UK (Rolls-Royce), Russia (PS and PD series) and France (Safran, and LEAP--a JV between Safran and GE). Moreover, Russians finally had it with their JV with Safran (Snecma) hot parts of SAM146 jet engine for Sukhoi SSJ-100 and are going to completely Russify SSJ-100 from avionics to APU, including substituting SAM146s with fully Russian PD-10. So, as many times was pointed out by me--only those who produce modern cutting edge power-plant for commercial aircraft are the real players in commercial airspace. In other words--only those who possess a complete enclosed technological cycle, from R&D, manufacturing composites, metals, ability to design to electronics and engines, only those can withstand competition and, in fact, will lead it. For all its elegance and a proud history, Embraer aircraft had only Brazilian fuselage--everything else, including the heart of the aircraft--its power-plant--was of Western origin. Once Embraer was privatized, it became clear what will be its final fate. Brazilians are now denied even a partial credit for their most important high-tech proud product. It really is a shame and I am slightly sad.   

An Interesting Coincidence?

It is a very peculiar coincidence. First, Yahoo publishes this:

That the U.S. and EU bolster their respective aerospace giants is a basic fact of the industry at this point. Yet the firms’ fierce rivalry and the enormous market share at stake means the U.S. and EU have challenged the other’s state-sponsored support—It’s fundamentally unfair! It’s market-distorting!—for well over a decade. Both sides’ claims have been at least partially upheld by the World Trade Organization, and those victories mean that each has the opportunity to hammer the other with tariffs. In other words: it’s payback time. But as the U.S. and EU trade threats on behalf of their industrial champions, an upstart aerospace firm could pose a threat to Boeing and Airbus’s long-term lock on the market. And it’s not wasting time worrying about subsidies; in fact, it’s welcoming state aid from an enthusiastic booster: China.

Of course down the article Yahoo makes a distinction: 

In fact, France has warned against any escalation of the trans-Atlantic subsidies argument, with Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying last week that it could “play into the hands” of a potentially significant competitor to both companies: the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or Comac. Comac, in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp, recently unveiled proposals for a long-haul widebody jet. It is already selling smaller models to Chinese carriers such as Chengdu Airlines, and trying to target some emerging markets such as Ghana with those regional planes. And all with the Chinese government’s support.

I have news for France's Finance Minister, who, obviously, having degree in literature from Sorbonne, before enrolling into Government Administration program, may not know it, but there are few very, how to put it politely, noticeable issues with this statement. Good that at least UAC and Russia were mentioned there. COMAC-919 is being created as primarily internal Chinese commercial aviation market filler for the nearest (10-30 years) future. COMAC-919 which still continues to have issues, is an outdated design and, apart from being a thoroughly "Western" aircraft it doesn't have...drum roll... indigenous competitive engine. It is simply not there, apart from few demonstrators which are not in the production and God knows when will be. 

And here is a Russian "coincidence: in Vzglyad with a telling title:

Китай ждет помощи от России в области авиации (China expects help from Russia in aviation field). 

Here is in English. 

Enter life-giving US sanctions on Russia. Only totally delusional people will continue to believe BS of sanctions in military and aerospace field against Russia as having something to do with politics--BS. It is all about Boeing and American Military-Industrial Complex. After all, none other than Russia's PM Dmitry Medvedev (whose role I am in the process of reassessing in a very positive direction now, after some new facts) today already reported Russia's military contracts portfolio worth $54.5 billion. Thankfully, by imposing sanction, such as those on composites by Hexcell, US, thinking that they damage MC-21 program, merely accelerated and to a breakneck speed localization of this aircraft, which will be a direct, unlike is the case of COMAC-919, competitor to both A-320neo and whatever the ill-fated B-737Max 8 will become.   

But that is the whole point, for the first time in history China was invited to become a co-organizer of the famed MAKS air exhibition, MAKS-2019. It will be at this massive salon that China will feature own progress but also the mock-up of  CR-929, Russian-Chinese wide-body airliner--the actual article, which together with MC-21 is honed to break up Boeing-Airbus duopoly. Behind all that one can see the shadow of not only majority of Russian home-made systems ranging from APU to avionics, and composites, which are already part of the newly constructed MC-21s, but of PD-14 engine which already received the certificate of type, while Russian-made APU received certificate from EASA. Russia ALREADY has certified PD-14 and the logical next step of PD-35 for wide-bodied intercontinental CR-929 and, wait a minute, IL-96, is being taken as I type this.

In the end, it is about more than just Boeing-Airbus saga, it is about those shady Russkies, hiding behind the tree in the ambush and waiting for their chance. So, let me reiterate--no own engine, no great aviation power. COMAC-919 will be powered undeniably by P&W or CFM. PD-14 is competitive and it already flies and is being produced, actually. Chinese AJ-1000A, will see. But in any case, Russia's return to commercial aircraft market will be noticed. Hell, it is already noticed, hence US sanctions--sanctity of Boeing, especially after this gigantic FUBAR with B-737 Max 8, must be well-guarded. Make no mistake, I am not sarcastic here, when I type this. The duopoly will be broken one way or another and behind it, apart from obvious advanced avionics, materials and design, all of which Russia has, is a massive Soviet/Russian school of engine manufacturing which was and is behind some of the most outstanding military aircraft in history. This experience is a key--that is why China paid billions to get her hands on Russian version of SU-35, that is why Egypt wants it, Indonesia signed the contract for 11 of them and that is why United States slaps economic sanctions on anything Russian--because it is too damn good and competitive. So simple, really.  

As per MAKS-2019. That is going to be a treat for aerospace obsessed and an eye candy. It always is.       

Pot Calling The Kettle.

By now no one should be surprised with the trade wars waged by Trump Administration on anyone. In many respects Trump's approach to international relations and trade is reminiscent of chaotic convulsions of the seriously injured ER patient and should not be treated as thought-out strategy. As I stated not for once--there is none. So, yet again threats and sour grapes:

The US is floating the idea of slapping tariffs on $11bn (£8.4bn) worth of products from the European Union. The move, which would escalate trade tensions between the US and EU, is a retaliation to European aircraft subsidies after the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said that the subsidies have an adverse impact on the US. Late on Monday, the US Trade Representative (USTR) delivered a proposed list of goods that could be hit by the tariffs. The list include everything from cheese to salmon fillets, and wine to helicopters. The USTR said that the value of the products that are proposed to be hit by tariffs is subject to an arbitration at the WTO. It will take several months to come to a conclusion.

What this piece forgot to mention, of course, is a symptomatic US reaction, which seeks to mitigate the effect of 800-pound gorilla in the room--a major FUBAR by Boeing with 737 Max. It is all about Boeing and Airbus:

San Francisco (AFP) - The US on Monday threatened to impose tariff counter measures of up to $11.2 billion on a host of European products in response to subsidies received by aircraft maker Airbus. 

No matter how one wants to spin this whole situation but there is no doubt whatsoever about Airbus benefiting from 737Max situation which has been, as bad as it was with so many human lives lost in two crashes, exacerbated by inept behavior of Boeing's PR people who dragged the issue for too long to have a sensible recovery--instead of admitting problem with 737 Max and rushing to fix it with maximum publicity, Boeing got embroiled in the PR disaster which IS having serious ramifications for Boeing's main money-maker, no matter how one tries to spin it. This is not to speak of those proverbial "subsidies". It is just the matter of perception and of newspeak--Boeing is also "subsidized" by government contracts. Nothing is wrong with that. So this whole "subsidies" thing is nothing more than a PR BS for consumption of free trade fundamentalists. US accusing Airbus of subsidies is akin to pot calling the kettle (black). Boeing should recall its "win" over Airbus.

Needless to say, Boeing commercial aircraft are main, together with cars and semi-conductors, United States global hi-tech industrial export. It is also most prestigious and image-supporting article of US economic clout. Now it suffered a major blow and Trump decided to deal with the issue in the best traditions of New York real estate shyster. Obviously, global community does not operate on such principles and Washington is getting messages about that with increasing frequency. Enter Russia. 

Moscow (AFP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart on Monday discussed a missile deal slammed by the US as well as closer military cooperation during a visit by Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow. The two sides must "strengthen cooperation in the military-technical sphere," Putin told Erdogan as they met in the Kremlin. "These regard first of all the completion of the contract to supply S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey," he said. "There are other promising projects on the agenda related to the supply of modern Russian military products to Turkey," Putin added.

Could Russia offer Turkey SU-57 fighter? Possible. Erdogan says Turkey would love to have S-500 in the end. So, who knows what Putin and Erdogan discussed behind closed doors but it is clear that even S-400 can close skies over Turkey for any contingency, including Ankara or Istanbul being bombed by Turkey's very own allies from NATO. This issue, with Turkey's S-400 purchase, however is just one of many other gigantic irritants for the United States, be that Egypt's purchase of SU-35s, US sanctions, sure as hell, will follow, or India, apart from buying those pesky S-400, adding today additional batch of T-90 tanks, to already contracted 464 units (in Russian). So much for Russia being isolated. But that is the whole point: Trump and his advisers act as if the United States is an industrial powerhouse it used to be in the immediate post-WW II period. These United States do not exist anymore and are gone for good. Even the United States of 1990s are not here anymore. Trump may start with getting an accurate assessment of American economy, real economy that is, and figuring out how come that the United States is the largest importer of finished goods in the world--$2.1 trillion. 

But, of course, there is a political downside to all these trade wars--people around the world are not stupid and they see these convulsions, erratic behavior and threats from the US as a sign of weakness and they are absolutely correct. Tariffs and trade wars are not going to help the US out of her deep economic hole, but it seems that Trump doesn't understand this, as well as the process of the United States declining into geopolitical irrelevance in a face of the fait accompli of multi-polarity and Eurasia going her own way in development in which the United States has only two options: join or try to sabotage it and we all know where it is going so far. It may change but not till present US "elites" are in power. Do they even know where they are today economically and geopolitically? Some of them surely do know. But even those who know--they have no ability, intellect and passion to steer America in the right direction for the sake of majority of her people. And so the bullying, threatening, hand twisting, sanctioning continues and will continue with less and less effect. The main issue today is to prevent, once those in power in the US understand completely that their gig is up, a global war which the US may initiate as the last resort. I guess, and I only guess, that Putin didn't say the last word on newest weapons. Something tells me that the season of surprises is only at the very beginning.