If a Tree Falls in a Forest and No One Is Around to Hear It ...

 ...  does it make a sound? You all know this thought experiment. But let's rephrase--if some fake "military expert" on YT or some TG channel didn't report about Russian Navy does it exist then?

This is again, for all those fanboys of explosions, "tactics' (they will not understand even basic math which goes into it), drones et al who are in a business of constantly suggesting Russian General Staff how to do things. Above is a video from April 4th this year of Russian Navy's Large ASW ship Severomorsk patrolling Baltic Sea (not far from Germany, namely Island Fehmarn). 

Russians begin to deploy their assets to all those choke points just to ensure that commercial traffic is safe. You saw yourself yesterday how Admiral Grigorovich escorted two tankers near UK. And for those who still don't get it--Russia's military assets in Baltic Sea can sink every NATO navy and whatever non-Baltic NATO navies will try to rush there in under 60 minutes. No nukes, just salvos of 3M54s, Onyxes and 3M22 Zircons. Remember these guys?

Or these ones? 

Just a reminder. But then again, what do I know. Meanwhile, in related news:

Finally, BDay presents which are not only beautiful when placed on the book shelf but may come in handy ... at some point of time. 

Some Insights Now Begin To Arrive.

As was anticipated. CBS reports on actuality of war from the POV of the US military personnel and lo and behold--they say what I have been saying for many years, how the real war feels. 

Survivors of the deadliest Iranian attack on U.S. forces since the war began have disputed the Pentagon's description of events and said their unit in Kuwait was left dangerously exposed when six service members were killed and more than 20 wounded. Speaking publicly for the first time, members of the targeted unit offered CBS News a detailed account of the attack and its harrowing aftermath from the perspective of those on the ground. 

Of course, they have to dispute what Hegseth says. This is not your small arms firefights (however nasty they could be) where you call in CAS, this is long-range fires, my friends, and they are longer than many of those in the US arsenal. 

In the hours before the attack, incoming missile alarms had signaled to a crew of about 60 troops to take cover in a cement bunker while a ballistic missile flew overhead. But around 9:15 a.m., an all-clear alert sounded. Officers removed their helmets and returned to their desks in the wood and tin workspace, about the width of three trailers. From there they resumed managing the movement of equipment, munitions and personnel across the Middle East. About 30 minutes later, "everything shook," one soldier told CBS News. "And it's something like what you see in the movies. Your ears are ringing. Everything's fuzzy. Your vision is blurry. You're dizzy. There's dust and smoke everywhere."  Dazed, the service member surveyed a grisly scene: "Head wounds, heavy bleeding, lots of perforated eardrums, and then just shrapnel all over, so folks are bleeding from their abdomen, bleeding from arms, bleeding from legs."

Yep, I like this phrase "something like what you see in the movies"--correct, it is very symptomatic, because the US Army doesn't know what is a precise fire impact of stand-off weapons. Of course, even in Iraq or Afghanistan you still could have been hit by RPG while in Humvee or even experience a nasty IED, that did happen many times, but this is different. Shahed, the Iranian drone can carry anywhere between 50 and 90 kilos of high explosives.  It has the range of up to 2,500 kilometers and fully fits the criteria of a high precision stand-off weapon. It can pay visits in salvos, and often does and the results of that are not what Pentagon tries to spin ... away from the real story. 

Word of Hegseth's description of the events at a press conference in Washington did not sit well with some of the survivors. The secretary had described the drone as a "squirter" that "happened to hit a tactical operations center that was fortified, but these are powerful weapons." And while several of those familiar with the events on the ground did not agree with the description, they did not want their remarks to be misconstrued. "It's not my intent to diminish morale or to disparage the Army or the Department of War more holistically, but I do think that telling the truth is important and we're not going to learn from these mistakes if we pretend these mistakes didn't happen," one soldier said.

I have news for this brave soldier--Pentagon doesn't learn, it cannot, look at the SMO. It is a different kind of war, which no US servicemen ever experienced, they did now. And that brings us to a purely technical issue:

Asked if the attack was an inherent reality of engaging in combat, he agreed. "That's true," he said. Asked if this attack was preventable, the soldier added: "In my opinion, absolutely, yes." "I am very sad for their loss and it's something I'll carry with me for the rest of my life," he said. "But I'm also immensely proud of them and their sacrifice, and their family should be too."

1. The US has no air defense means to deal with one of this threats. Shaheds will continue to fly and will continue, together with ballistic and cruise missiles, take out anything they deem necessary. The US WILL NOT ask Russia and Russia WILL NOT agree to sell to Pentagon things it doesn't have and will not have any time soon, I list a few: Elka, Tunguska, S1 Pantsir, Tor M2, Buk M3 et al. No, it was not "preventable". 

2. Poor men who got killed. Their sacrifice was for Israel and not for the US Constitution and American people. Only part of American people but their loyalty is with Israel. 

Per Hegseth, something tells me he soon will be fired and maybe even more. Die you today for me to live and die tomorrow. That's Trump's MO.  

Say It Ain't So!

Or "no shit" moment of clarity from morons. 

Oil prices dropped sharply after the ceasefire, but supply chains remain constrained and slow to recover.

A widening gap between futures and physical markets reflects ongoing operational and logistical risks.

Asian buyers face continued shortages as Gulf supply routes remain unreliable and alternatives uneconomic.

In related news. US GDP is much-much smaller than stated, Wall Street has nothing to do with real economy, using profits and "capitalization" as the only metric for economic viability is for morons only, and I can continue with this list for a long time. The depth of the damage to "global economy" is still not grasped by many, but despite optimistic declarations from corrupt Gulfies that it may take 4 months to come back "to normal" once "the war is over", reality is catastrophic for these despicable glitzy satrapies, because they cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Iran (and Houthis) de facto control access to Saudi terminals of its East-West pipeline in the Red Sea. 

For Israel the situation is terminal. It is a pariah criminal state whose Zionist cancer poisoned the United States and who knows where it leaves the US in spiritual terms. If that is true:

The Vatican has cancelled a papal visit to the U.S. for the 250th anniversary celebration after Pentagon officials appeared to threaten the leader of the Catholic Church for speaking out against Trump's foreign policy. Pope Leo XIV—the first American Pope in history—strongly condemned U.S. actions in Iran though not by name in his Easter message, stating that God "does not listen" to world leaders who wage war. 

Here are some details: 

Leo had already criticized Trump's actions on Venezuela and his threats against Greenland and Canada in a speech on January 9th stating, "a diplomacy that promotes dialogue and seeks consensus among all parties is being replaced by a diplomacy based on force." In response, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned Cardinal Christophe Pierre—the Vatican ambassador to the U.S.—to a meeting. In diplomatic parlance, an ambassador being summoned to meet with government officials for a lecture is the first stage in disciplinary action that can lead to a break off of diplomatic ties. It is being reported by The Free Press that in the meeting Colby told Pierre, "The United States has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side." Someone in the meeting then reportedly mentioned the Avignon Papacy to Pierre. This refers to a 14th century attack on the Vatican by the French king, in which Pope Boniface VIII was murdered by assassins and the Vatican was forced to relocate to Avignon where it could be controlled by the French crown for the next 67 years. 

Well, if Pentagon thinks (which you would expect from a lawyer and NS bureaucrat like Colby) that "it can do whatever it wants", I can tell Mr. Colby who wouldn't understand anything about REAL military operations, that the only thing the US has succeeded in doing is having its ass handed to it on every single theater of operations. If that's what the US "military power wants to do" then it certainly succeeded, including now with Iran where the US was militarily humiliated. But then again, Colby hails from a bloodline (grandson) of former CIA Director William Colby, who was a staunch Catholic. So, his grandson now threatens Pope ... great! Insanity ... But then again, CIA's "strategic analysis" and "understanding" of the enemy was always, how to put it ... subpar. 

Moral Debasement ...

 ... is complete. 

Nima and Yours Truly...

 ... live in 30 minutes. 

Kudos To James Clander For Pointing to Pepe's Excellent ...

 ... piece today at SCF. This is for those two-bit commenters who have the attention span of Joe Biden (or DJT). US was BEGGING Iran for negotiations since March 16th at least--three weeks! So, Pepe puts the record straight. 

The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break

We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump’s pivoting to a ceasefire. The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources. The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated – under fire – to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater – except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.

And the problems are far from over. Financial hell looms, whatever is decided in Islamabad and beyond, with $10 trillion in Treasuries to rollover in 2026. And the petrodollar is fast on the way to the dustbin of History. Enter, once again, the demented death cult. No one should ever forget. The Epstein Syndicate is non-agreement capable. And the death cult doesn’t do ceasefires: it does at best loopholes that allow it to keep killing everyone in sight. The writing is already on the wall. If the death cult blows up the ceasefire – which is already the case – Iran and Hezbollah will counterpunch, massively, without attacking American assets. Still, it’s way too early to affirm that the Baboon of Barbaria lost his war under every possible metric: moral; legal; political; economic; strategic.

This is for those who still cannot wrap their brains around what strategic initiative is. Iran has it, not the US, nor this peep-squeak Israel. I have to disagree with Pepe on the last point though. US degeneration into the at best second-rate power has been happening since at least 2008. It accelerated in 2014 and now, as Pepe himself notes:

So Civilization survives – for now. A few facts too. Fact One: the US is not a superpower anymore. Fact Two: Iran is back as one of the world’s top powers. Fact Three: Most of the gutless Gulf petro-monarchies will end up kicking out US military bases for good. Fact Four: Qatar and Oman will work out a security arrangement with Iran.

Per role of China--China IS vulnerable and she will remain vulnerable--it is a hard cold fact of Chinese geography and economy. In this case it needs to be stated that Iranian 10 Points are indeed peremptory and Iran was not going to allow for any type of a ceasefire unless all conditions are met. Teheran can count military resources extremely well and they know pretty well how many stand-off weapons are remaining in the US arsenal, especially against the background of the US (lack of) air defense. And here is an analogy which is not only inescapable but warranted--SMO. Witkoff can go to Moscow "to negotiate" whatever he and his orange clown want, but SMO continues uninterrupted. 

Related. We should not forget also that Vladimir Putin stated this on June 19, 2025: 

"You know, we once offered our Iranian friends to work in the field of air defense systems. The partners did not show much interest then, and that's all. As for the agreement you mentioned, on the strategic partnership [between the Russian Federation and Iran], there are no articles related to the defense sector. This is the second point. And thirdly, our Iranian friends are not asking for this. Because there is practically nothing to discuss," Putin said.

Guess from three times whose AD systems Iran has chosen, from July 2025. 

Iran will soon receive from China a batch of HQ-9 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) and Chinese-made surface-to-air missiles under an oil barter agreement concluded between the countries. As reported on July 8 by the Middle East Eye (MEE) portal, citing several diplomatic sources, Tehran needed urgent purchases of these weapons to accelerate the restoration of its air defense forces, which were seriously damaged as a result of the June Israeli raids. U.S. Arab allies are aware of Tehran's measures to "support and strengthen" its air defenses, and the White House has been briefed on Iran's progress on the issue, the MEE said. The HQ-9 is considered an upgraded analogue of the Russian S-300PMU1 air defense system, but using Chinese radars and electronics. The system uses a two-stage solid-propellant missile with a declared maximum range of 260 km and an altitude ceiling of 27 km. The estimated cost of one air defense regiment (27 launchers) is $1.5 billion.

"Considered" IS NOT actual combat performance. Pakistan's HQ-9s preformed dismally against Indian AF and its missiles, unlike S-400 with India buying five more batteries of S-400 based on combat performance and record. This is for those who want to look at actual combat data. Just saying. 

Does Iran feel lucky? 

This Is The President Of The United States Of ...

 ... America. 

Marjorie “Traitor” Brown’s (GREEN TURNS TO BROWN UNDER STRESS!) seat in Congress has been taken over by a wonderful and talented man, Clay Fuller, who won convincingly, and right from the beginning, despite many people running for that “TRUMP” +37 seat, and despite the stench left by Greene. Congratulations to Clay Fuller, a very large improvement over his deranged predecessor! President DONALD J. TRUMP

He is not a man, he is a sanctimonious vengeful teenage middle-school girl. Impeach, convict and remove from the office he (together with its previous occupier) discredited and humiliated. Unlike this orange coward, MTG is a true fighter and a woman with principles, she is also a real patriot.

Meanwhile, a very critical discussion and a statement from Nathan Apffel which needs to be repeated non-stop.

"Christian Zionists are Talmudic Jews wrapped into Christianity". Yes, Dispensationalists are NOT Christians. In Russian tradition they are called (as are most Evangelicals) жидовствующие, literally--Judeizers or Yideizers. And the number of "denominations", that is 40,000, of these so called "churches" is astonishing. It is strictly money, power and ambition of those heretics who constantly subvert Bible for personal gain. Paula White, Trump's "spiritual adviser" is into Prosperity Gospel--she is a money maker (or rather extortionist from congregation using a collection of one-liners from Bible) and not a Christian. She is a charlatan as is DJT. As are most America's mega-churches and their so called Pastors.

Word of God, man! Praise the Lord!