Sadly, Only In Russian.

My very good friends Colonel Trukhan, Lt. Colonels Shalandin and Popov about escalation. And explanation of what I explain ad nauseam to those "experts" who view war only as explosions and destruction. Russia could and can wipe out the whole of 404 in one go and with it the rest of EU in military-industrial terms, but decisions made on how to prosecute SMO are shaped by enormous number of strategic considerations many of which are not military in nature. 

Per China, I repeat again--Russia knows China's real capabilities and how China views Russia. Enough to say that Chinese military people are training in Russia, not the other way around and don't let me get started on naval affairs. But I can tell, for people who are in the line of work like me (that is trying to deliver actual professional military and geopolitical analysis) the only hope is to enter public discourse through a very limited number of people who actually want to know and are ready to listen and learn and, most importantly, internalize. It is a fairly narrow segment. 

In related news, Russian Army units are already fighting inside Druzhkovka. 

ROFL ...

 LOL)) That's what music education gives you!

I Want To Rephrase ...

 ... Russia's PM Mikhail Mishustin's quip that he saw many excellent economists who have been engineers before, but he never saw even a mediocre engineer who was an economist before. So, the point--cadre officer with military academy and engineering degree can and many did (some of them I studied with) become commanders in special forces. But any NCO from super-duper special forces, if he doesn't have a serious military education cannot become an officer in charge of, say, such thing as Air Defense battalion and higher. It is impossible in real serious military which operates world-class cutting edge systems.

 Europe burns, badly. 

Yes, And I Want ...

 ... the prototype of newest nuclear reactor in my backyard--to save money on energy. Exclusive! Breaking News! Sensation! Yes, this is Reuters.

KYIV, July 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine wants a prototype for a European anti-ballistic system codenamed Freyja to be ready within the first half of next year, a senior official said, as Kyiv pushes its allies to help deliver a weapon capable of downing Russian missiles. Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, who oversees the Freyja project, said that an international steering committee tasked with estimating the research and development costs was due to convene for the first time soon.

Sure, sure. I have the news though--Russian "ballistic" missiles used in SMO are ballistic primarily in title. Both Iskander and Iskander M fly quasi-ballistically maneuvering like crazy. Some very few intercepts of early versions of Iskanders have been achieved at near terminal and even that is primarily from 404 "reports". That means it could all be BS. 

But the issue is simpler--Europe lacks required expertise and capacity for design and production of weapon systems which are adequate (forget about being highly effective) for the modern battlefield. Period. The statement like these, moreover, create a Homeric laughter in Russian military. 

Ukraine is chronically dependent on U.S.-made Patriot air defence systems, which is the only weapon in its arsenal capable of reliably downing Russia's ballistic missiles, which travel at several times the speed of sound. 

Yes, and I am Marlon Brando. Europe tied itself to criminal Nazi regime in Kiev and she is going to die with it. 

I Remind You ...

 ... this is not a joke, I checked, this is from POTUS' account. 

If you go to his account, it is filled with such neural network slop. How about this:

This is national humiliation which continues non-stop (just the magnitude changes) since Clinton. 

“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe. 

Mike Waltz ...

 ... doesn't produce an impression of a very bright man. This is not to say that his distinction of graduating from Virginia Military Institute with honors counts for nothing, but he is a product of a subpar US military education and, naturally, he migrated into the classic pro-Israel camp and then continued to demonstrate a lack of basic mathematical skills. 

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the U.S. has “everything that it needs” for military operations against Iran, dismissing reporting regarding depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles. “I want to be crystal clear: The U.S. military, and I’ve verified this every which way, has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be,” he said on Sunday. “And I have to tell you, the people that are leaking this nonsense deserve to be in jail.” His comments came in response to questioning about an NBC News report that U.S. military commanders are allowing some Iranian attacks through U.S. defenses as part of an effort to preserve the Pentagon’s weapons supply, according to two senior U.S. officials.

Well, the situation is much more dire than just "preservation of supplies", it is the fact that those "supplies" are simply not good and are incapable to carry out the mission, that is to say to shoot down most of missiles and drones which are launched at the US bases. While Waltz was getting his major in International Relations from VMI, others were getting their engineering degrees in Air Defense and Stand-Off High Precision Weapons. And that's a huge difference. 

Moreover, Larry wrote an excellent expose on yet another TACO and how fuel issue can factor into this whole FUBAR for the US in Persian Gulf. 

Miller concludes that the crisis is not due to a collapse in refinery output or a fabricated inventory, but rather a combination of structurally low inventories, high ongoing exports, and fragmented public reporting that obscures the military’s draw on national fuel supplies. The evidence supports the view that Rotterdam acts as a shadow endpoint for US fuel, facilitating onward distribution to US/NATO bases, Israel, and other theaters, but the lack of transparent, reconciled accounting prevents the public from knowing the true allocation. The report calls for a unified, detailed ledger to clarify how much fuel is being diverted from domestic resilience to military and foreign operations. I am assuming that Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Burgham know this and briefed Trump on it. Stripping the US civilian sector of diesel and jet fuel surpluses at a time when the global supply is still severely constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi blockade of Saudi oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of damaging the US domestic economy. Did this fact also convince President Trump that a massive attack on Iran at this time would be ill-advised? Worth considering. 

Obviously, it is never a single factor, it is always a combination with its own logic of interaction between those factors. But in the end, the US has no good options ... well, except the only thing US military knows how to do--bomb its way out of defeat and declare victory. 

In related news. Many people still cannot grasp the criticality of this video by Russian MoD. 

It is not just the strike on some vessels steaming to Odessa (as you see below). 

Nope, the strike is on port tugs which paralyzes already choked off supply line to Odessa. Most large vessels cannot be moored without tugs. When you don't have tugs--it is over. 

But here what is the key in the decision on the fate of the 404. It is Navy Day in Russia and Vladimir Putin confirmed explicitly what we all suspected all along.

The president paid special attention to the issue of the western territories transferred to Kyiv after the war. "Stalin gave these lands to Ukraine, but he gave it as within the framework of a single state. Apparently, it did not occur to him that such a situation as today could develop. By the way, I am sure that sooner or later Ukraine will lose these western lands. And what belonged to Poland, belonged to Hungary, belonged to Romania, sooner or later, not tomorrow, maybe not the day after tomorrow, a year, two, ten, fifteen, but everything will historically fall into place. There was only one guarantor of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This is Russia," Putin said.

So, there you go. The green light is on now, officially. 404 will cease to exist. 

Yes, Share the "Evidence"))

Allow me to remind you--404 does not have any of the advanced ISR and is entirely dependent on the US for this and Command, Control and Communications. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday he will share evidence with the United States showing Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East via satellite surveillance. "Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there," Zelenskyy said on X. "These images subsequently appear in Iran. At the same time, there is a clear correlation between Russia's satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes — both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted." Zelenskyy's accusations of Russia helping Iran target U.S. troops are not the first. Multiple sources, including a senior U.S. official with direct knowledge, told CBS News six days into the war that Russia was providing intelligence to Iran regarding U.S. positions in the Middle East. 

Yes, Zelensky will be sharing American intel with ... Americans. That, my friends, is called chutzpah. A special kind of chutzpah, I may add. But, as you all know, America's "friends" since Korean War are not exactly an admirable bunch. 404 (highly likely from Kazakhstan, maybe Azerbaijan) hit Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea--killed a crew member. Iran promised a delivery of a good payload to some targets in 404. Meanwhile The Economist sounds alarm. 

China is gaining troubling military know-how from Russia. It is learning how to improve its drones, nuclear subs and air defence. 

No shit, geniuses, you don't even know half of it, but judging by the "expertise" of Western journos and political "science" so called "strategists" they will not be able to grasp even basic realities of the modern warfare paradigm. It is a huge celebration in Russia today--Navy Day. Vladimir Putin already congratulated those serving and connected to the Navy.