Oh! Not Again!

Military "analysis" about why NATO already lost and finding reasons on the surface, instead of looking at what the US military ultimately is. 

The two and a half years of war since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have produced no decisive result. After thwarting Russia’s initial advances, Ukraine’s hopes of regaining all of its stolen territory by military force have stalled—despite a flood of Western aid. Since the failure of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in 2023—and after little movement along the frontlines over the past year—Russian forces have started to make incremental advances. In the spring of 2024, they consolidated moderate gains around Kharkiv—Ukraine’s second largest city—in what could be a preview of Moscow’s broader plans to go on a summer offensive. As the Russians moved forward quickly in May, Ukrainian defensive fieldworks in Kharkiv remained unbuilt or deficient amid allegations of corruption.¹ Confronted with far less Ukrainian progress than they’d hoped for, Washington has tended to blame itself rather than ask deeper questions. Many analysts see belated or insufficient military aid to Ukraine as the main cause of Moscow’s gains and Kyiv’s failures, regardless of the underlying facts. Ukraine, it is said, is losing not because of its own limitations or errors, but the irresolution of its backers. But faster or larger aid packages wouldn’t have made the decisive difference many presume, either then or now. Instead, Ukraine continues to falter on the battlefield for four main reasons: an endemic manpower shortage, an inability to generate offensive combat power, diminishing returns on a litany of supposed “game-changing” Western weapons, and poor tactics. More military aid will do little to fix any of these problems.

The issue is not just aid, of course, or lack of capacity of the combined West. This all is just one of many factors which contributed mightily to this clusterfuck of a war. The main factor is lack of any serious strategic intelligence (author of this piece should know--he is former CIA military analyst) and forecasting in Washington--always very weak, now--absent altogether, and, of course, lack of any experience in building effective military machine from the top--General Staff--down to the basic tactical sub-units. The US simply has no structure for that, nor does it have experience. One can pontificate on "the finest fighting force in history" whatever one wants, but...

Read my lips--the REAL combined arms war which propelled the United States in 1945 to the position of superpower happened on the Eastern Front, period. You either show the winning record or you don't. Want to try to change things? How about starting from studying the real history of WW II with proper relation of scales, scope and contributions. That's gonna be a good start--to study the history of two real finest fighting forces in history duking it out between themselves from 1941 through 1944 until it was over. That's what is called "showing the money". It also means learning REAL lessons on what it takes to fight a real war, which the US has about zero experience of fighting. Now these people lament:

It is now clear Ukraine cannot reclaim all of its occupied territory via military force. It lacks both the manpower and hardware necessary to generate new combat power or achieve an advantage in fires that will lead to sufficient offensive capacity. Russia is getting better at blunting the impact of Western weapons, and Ukraine’s poor tactics can’t simply be ignored forever. Because more aid alone is unable to rectify these problems, both Washington and Kyiv must now consider other avenues to end the war. Ukraine’s deputy chief of military intelligence recently stated there is no pathway for Ukraine to win on the battlefield. If the best Kyiv can do—as Biden administration officials are now admitting—is to hold what it has, then Washington should press Kyiv to begin talks before Ukraine loses more territory. But even a shift to a defensive strategy aimed at demonstrating enough resilience to Moscow to force talks will be difficult to execute. The hope that Putin begrudgingly accepts that the frontlines are unlikely to move, thereby increasing Moscow’s willingness to negotiate, seems farfetched. As long as Russia has a 5:1 latent manpower advantage, it has time on its side.

I have news for these guys: it was clear from the first day of SMO not "now". The only issue was how Russia will approach escalation and the gradual involvement of NATO until it becomes clear that it is between combined West and Russia. Well, let me give you the date--April 12, 2022. Here is from my latest book. 

This date can be marked as the official start of the slip of the combined West, headed by the U.S., from its 500-year long supremacy toward a long descent into global obscurity. As with any large landslide, it starts initially with tremors and a few rocks rolling down the steep slope, but eventually the number of rocks increases dramatically, and it becomes a deafening stream of rocks, trees and dust until the whole slope yields and rushes down where once a peaceful and undisturbed foothill lay.

This was the date when clown Boris Johnson, on behalf of Biden Admin, sabotaged Istanbul talks and the REAL SMO has started. I know for a fact that General Staff fully anticipated NATO's involvement from the start and contingency planning has been done accordingly. Now, the combined West pays for its arrogance and delusions. And don't get me started on technological dimension of this all. Short of the transfer of nuclear weapons to 404 the US arsenal is nothing more than a collection of pieces not suited for the real war of the XXI century. As per talks--Russia's conditions are known, if Washington wants to talk it better rush, because this offer expires soon and the next one will be even more humiliating. Meanwhile Abrams tanks continue to be annihilated, this time it is GLONASS and laser-guided Krasnopol--a nasty-nasty SMART munition.

I am sure Russians sacrificed so many washing machines and dishwashers to get chips for all that. So, will the US military get a General Staff? Nope, profit margins for Raytheon are more important and to thrive it needs conflicts, there is one problem--this time they chose a wrong enemy... But then again, when was the last time the US fought the "right" one? Or as Cuba Gooding says--show me the money. In the end talking about strategy and practicing it successfully are two completely different sets of skills.

Why They Are Laughed At.

Soros-funded Quincy Institute for allegedly Responsible Statecraft continues to exhibit a complete lack of self-awareness and sheer illiteracy in military affairs. Hey, I get it that Colonel Macgregor had some conversation with some Russian "general" who told him about 40+ million losses of USSR in WW II, but here is another guy who has no clue but warns about not using "bad history". This is the type of people who run America and America's dazzling failure as serious continental power. 

Bad history makes for bad policy on Ukraine. The West needs better historical analogies for understanding Russia’s war and how to counter it.

And the moment the author makes this statement he does, guess what? Exactly, spews propaganda BS about Great Patriotic War. 

Soviet Marshal Zhukov absorbed 860,000 casualties to the Germans’ 200,000 at the Battle of Kursk in World War II. He also lost 1,500 tanks to the Germans’ 500, yet Kursk is remembered as a great triumph that crushed Hitler’s final hopes of victory. Can one imagine Germany celebrating its superior casualty ratio while being defeated by Stalin’s hordes? However shocking this tactic may be, it is a resource that Moscow has and Kyiv does not. Consider the battle for Bakhmut and the daily bulletins trumpeting Ukraine’s success in killing thousands of Russians, right up to the moment that Bakhmut fell to Wagner Group mercenaries — weirdly reminiscent of the Pentagon’s body-count bulletins in the Vietnam war. 

The historic "knowledge" of this former Pentagon "analyst" with the background in humanities ("politics" no less) evidently dictates him to avoid any serious WW II documents, because if he followed best Russian military historians, such as Krivosheev, a real general incidentally,  he would have known that TOTAL casualties for Kursk Strategic Defensive Operation (July 5-23, 1943) amounted to 177,847 with KIAs and MIAs count being: 70, 330. After that, Strategic Offensive Operation Kutuzov started (July 23-August 18, 1943), with TOTAL casualties resulting in 429,890, with KIAs and MIAs count being: 112, 529. So, in all, from July 5 to August 18 1943, Red Army sustained 177,847 + 429,890 = 607,737 casualties, with total of KIAs and MIAs equaling 70,330 + 112, 529= 182,859. Where the number of 860,000 came from only this guy knows, but I have a clue. 

But then again, US perception of war, especially of WW II was shaped by Wehrmacht which, in the end, had its ass handed to it by the Red Army. Obviously, most of Anglo-American historiography on Wehrmacht cannot be taken seriously, precisely because of known manipulation with data with a strong bias toward German figures. But even if to accept that Wehrmacht lost 203,000 at Kursk. One still has to consider the fact that West needs not "better historical analogies" but basic education in military history with serious revision of sources, it also needs serious military science education and good schooling in strategy. I omit here operational art because NATO needs to start from the clean slate. If you want to learn something, you better learn it from the best, NATO learned from losers who confabulated the whole history in order to save their wounded pride and war crimes. That is why they are in shock and awe at Pentagon. As is the author--Robert English. And don't tell me that I didn't warn--I did, last 9 years I did non-stop.

No Shit, Pardon My French.

Ignorant BSers from The Economist report:

UKRAINIANS WATCHED with glee as Russia flirted with civil war on June 24th. They had hoped that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow would tie up Russian troops and destabilise Vladimir Putin’s regime. Alas, the insurrection proved short-lived. In recent days, Ukraine’s army has made modest advances in the east. But a counter-offensive that began on June 4th shows little sign of breaking through Russian lines in force any time soon, making some Western officials nervous.

And as now Ria quotes The Economist (in Russian) the 404 GUR complains that "partners" tell VSU to "go ahead and fight with fury".  Oh boy, do I recognize neocons' signature move--make others die while they sit in their comfortable upscale restaurants and clubs and pretend to be military thinkers and strategists. None of them are and most would shit their pants just from the thought of being anywhere near operational zone. 

Now about Mearsheimer, or, rather, why I do not read or listen to him, or why in general I am not interested in what he has to say. People brought again his platitudes up, and "analysis" at a discussion board today re: his, yet another, set of platitudes:

Second, which side is likely to win the war? Russia will ultimately win the war, although it will not decisively defeat Ukraine. In other words, it is not going to conquer all of Ukraine, which is necessary to achieve three of Moscow’s goals: overthrowing the regime, demilitarizing the country, and severing Kyiv’s security ties with the West. But it will end up annexing a large swath of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. In other words, Russia will win an ugly victory.

Before I directly address these issues, three preliminary points are in order. For starters, I am attempting to predict the future, which is not easy to do, given that we live in an uncertain world. Thus, I am not arguing that I have the truth; in fact, some of my claims may be proved wrong. Furthermore, I am not saying what I would like to see happen. I am not rooting for one side or the other. I am simply telling you what I think will happen as the war moves forward. Finally, I am not justifying Russian behavior or the actions of any of the states involved in the conflict. I am just explaining their actions.

This paragraph alone demonstrates for anyone with serious military background (Mearsheimer is a graduate of USMA at West Point) a complete confusion which befell Mearsheimer, who passes in the US for "realist":

1. Defeat of the enemy and Victory are synonyms, and in REAL war, they are identical and mean "achieving POLITICAL goals of a war". If Mearsheimer, who is of a respectable age, still doesn't know it, he can start with Svechin's Strategy in order to avoid embarrassment...

2. ...when trying to predict the future having absolutely no tool kit when it comes to Russia and XXI century warfare. Mearsheimer doesn't have it and is the same product of American cultural and pseudo-academic milieu, whose views on warfare grew primarily based on entertainment industry and American exceptionalism. E.g. he has no grasp of the real size of Russian economy and, especially, of technological and production capability of Russian military-industrial complex. Neither have most US political "scientists" from Mearsheimer's environment.

3. He remains still THE American exceptionalist and is not well versed in the history of the XX century and, especially, its military history. It shines through his speaking and writing. Hence he always resorts to platitudes, which, once in a while make sense. But, as we all know, even the broken clock... 

This is why I don't give Mearsheimer any respect as a scholar. In matters of the combined West against Russia in the XXI century he is an amateur with a lot of AMERICAN "academic" credentials which automatically disqualify those people from passing any judgement on issues of XXI century geopolitics.  In the end, political "science" is a fraudulent academic field designed to give credence to opinions of people who, otherwise, are incapable of productive and meaningful intellectual labor. In general, as, sadly, the example of respected by me Colonel Macgregor shows, even the best and the brightest in the US have huge issues with learning the real history of WW II and America's path to greatness, however short-lived in historical terms, especially so of the Eastern Front which contributed decisively to America's post-WW II resurgence.

China's Foreign Ministry Issues A Statement.

But first, remember this?

As I am on record non-stop, most of Western WW II and Soviet history is utterly solzhenitsified and, in general, falsified into a caricature which serves the only one purpose of whitewashing Nazism and removing West's collective responsibility for atrocity it committed in the East against primarily Slavs (and Jews). Few works of real history and of knowledge of the war in Europe are just that--few and far in between. Mostly, the field of "Russia Studies" is dominated by Vlasovite White Russian element (Solzhenitsyn and his ilk), escaped traitors with agenda (Rezun, aka Suvorov) or such propagandists as Anthony Beavor or altogether alternatively "gifted" ahistoric fantasy procurators such as David Irving. The last one is especially funny since recently Miroslav Morozov (a former naval officer and reputable naval historian) and his group of professional military historians simply demolished (in Russian) Irving's ridiculous assumptions (as usual produced primarily inside the mind of most "revisionist" pseudo-historians) about whole Caravan PQ-17 story, concocted by Irving, and Russian real historians (and former cadre officers, unlike Irving who never completed even basic university course in anything) de facto exonerated both Churchill and First Sea Lord Dudley Pound from ascribed to them guilt in a destruction of PQ-17.    

Why would Russians exonerate both Pound and Churchill? Ahh, the concept unknown in the West anymore, especially among the self-proclaimed "intellectual class"--the TRUTH. So, why is this important. Well, yesterday China's Foreign Ministry issued this interesting statement:

ПЕКИН, 10 мая. /ТАСС/. Китай будет вместе с Россией отстаивать итоги Второй мировой войны и защищать мир во всем мире. Об этом в понедельник на регулярном брифинге заявила официальный представитель МИД КНР Хуа Чуньин. "Неважно, как будет меняться ситуация в мире, Китай и Россия будут держаться вместе, решительно поддерживать друг друга, вместе защищать международную справедливость и беспристрастность", - сказала она. "В условиях COVID-19 и других серьезных изменений Китай продолжит работать с Россией и международным сообществом, чтобы отстаивать итоги Второй мировой войны и защищать мир во всем мире", - указала дипломат. Хуа Чуньин также отметила, что в Китае отметили "успешное проведение в России грандиозного военного парада по случаю 76-й годовщины Победы в Великой Отечественной войне". "Мы выражаем наши искренние поздравления в связи с этим", - резюмировала она.

Translation:  BEIJING, May 10. / TASS /. China will, together with Russia, defend the results of World War II and defend world peace. This was announced on Monday at a regular briefing by the official representative of the PRC Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying. “No matter how the world situation changes, China and Russia will stick together, strongly support each other, and together defend international justice and impartiality,” she said. “Amid COVID-19 and other major changes, China will continue to work with Russia and the international community to uphold the outcome of World War II and protect world peace,” the diplomat said. Hua Chunying also stated that China noted "the successful holding of a grandiose military parade in Russia on the occasion of the 76th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War." “We express our sincere congratulations on this,” she summed up.

There is no doubt that the combined West in its dying years will increase the opaque stream of pseudo-historical BS in order to blame everything on historic Russia (remember? Stalin=Hitler and so is Putin who also is Hitler) and will try desperately to find any excuse and rationalization for a clusterfuck which combined West created completely on its own. Plus, Western elites in general consider Russians to be subhumans anyway and bifurcate between outright visceral hatred and more "civilized" contempt. It is inherent in the cultural DNA of Western "intellectuals" and political "elites" and the more West will continue failing even at the basic tasks of running the economy and basic governance, the more Russians will be blamed for everything. Here is the latest example of this bipolar behavior, today.

A cyberattack that crippled the US fuel supply wasn’t the work of Russia, President Joe Biden said. Confusingly, Biden then said that Russia bears “some responsibility” for the attack. 

Obviously, Russia, in the view of the American "elite", is this proverbial Schrodinger Cat which is simultaneously both not-guilty and guilty of whatever shit happens in the US. Sure, recall that Russians, in accordance to US big "intelligence" honchos, are not genetically normal people and I am sure James Clapper will be leading the planning process for concentration camps for Russian Americans once shit really hits the fan and we are not far from it. I am sure those will be located not far from the camps for those deplorables who voted for Trump in 2020 elections. Poor souls. 

But that is just the latest, but Chinese who lost 20 million people in WW II, obviously, also had enough, plus, as the latest events show, China is playing now big time for the actual military-economic alliance with Russia which could be formalized on paper. It seems that China, from what I gather from different sources among Sinologists, is really into this formalization, while admitting that the alliance exists de facto already. It does. This colossal plant is just one of many signs of Russia building up a support structure for China's rear. 

Russia's Eastward orientation is generally completed and those in EU who would want to survive they will have the doors open for them but only on conditions which Russia (and China) will set for them. As EU's foreign policy big honcho Borrell stated today: 

БРЮССЕЛЬ, 10 мая. /ТАСС/. Все страны-члены Евросоюза считают, что не нужно обострять отношения с Россией после дипломатических скандалов с Чехией и Болгарией. Об этом заявил в понедельник глава дипломатии ЕС Жозеп Боррель на пресс-конференции по итогам заседания министров иностранных дел 27 стран сообщества в Брюсселе.

Translation: BRUSSELS, May 10. / TASS /. All EU member states believe that there is no need to aggravate relations with Russia after diplomatic scandals with the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. This was stated on Monday by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, at a press conference following the meeting of the foreign ministers of the 27 countries of the community in Brussels.

As you can see yourself, West's structures today are utterly bipolar and as such are entirely non-agreement capable. Hey, I am sure Russians will be blamed for this too. 

A group of active French military personnel has published a new open letter to the country's president Emmanuel Macron, warning him of a "civil war" brewing in the country after all the "concessions" he's made to Islamism.The letter, published in the conservative Valeurs Actuelles magazine late on Sunday, strikes a similar tone to the message published by the same outlet last month. Unlike the previous one, which was signed by 25 retired generals and active-duty soldiers, the new letter is anonymous and is open for signing by the general public. As of noon on Monday, it had attracted over 100,000 signatures.The authors of the letter have described themselves as active-duty French soldiers, belonging to the younger generation of the military that saw actual combat over the past years."We are what the newspapers have called 'the fire generation.' Men and women, active soldiers, of all armies and of all ranks, of all opinions, we all love our country. These are our only claims to fame. And while we cannot, by law, express ourselves with our face uncovered, it is equally impossible for us to stay silent," the letter reads.

The West is completely broken. It hasn't lived in reality in decades, its "elites" are utterly incompetent and alleged "intellectual class" is down right stupid producing mostly strategic, history, arts, philosophy, thought and economic trash. What it took to expose that? Few wars, few economic crises and few other events against the background of broadband internet and global exchange of information. It is a wasteland which still tries to hide behind once attractive glitz of economic prosperity and virtue-signalling. Not anymore. It learned absolutely nothing from the wars of the 20th century and that only underscores my point. They are not that smart.