Mark Chapman...

... did a wonderful write up on the issue I am going to discuss tomorrow, as written by NYT . 

Zelensky’s madcap Kursk adventure marks Ukraine’s last ‘something ere the end’ – its last frantic hand-waving for attention before its head slips under the waves. And in that effort, it is wildly successful: the western media is giddy, euphoric, it cannot stop talking about Zelensky’s bold stroke, Putin’s abject embarrassment and humiliation. But these are just words; words from past masters of ‘framing the narrative’ so the story you get out of happenings is the one they want to tell. The west is the self-declared sworn enemy of Russia: of course anything which discomfits its leader and its government is an occasion for celebration and high-fiving. It hand-picked Ukraine to throw it against Russia, so it is unsurprising that any exhibition of aggression on its part is received with cheers and approval.

Excellent piece. Moreover, Larry doesn't mince words and goes for jugular:

The United States is Preparing to Jettison Volodomyr Zelensky

The tawdry show around the terrorist act against NS-2 pipeline is designed for a kindergarten for retarded children. That is the requirement for believing this utter BS of 404 executing this "operation".  What can I say, or, rather what Marx said: History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce (c). Something tells me we are in the third, if not the fourth iteration of a farce stage...

P.S. I am "stealing" Mark's superb definition of NYT piece: a casserole of mendacity! (c)

Excellent Piece By Larry.

Larry asks important question:

Let me start with a simple analogy. You are tooling down the road on a BMW S1000RR “crotch rocket” at 100 miles per hour. You see Toyota sedan a couple of hundred yards (i.e., 183 meters) ahead with an elderly codger at the helm getting ready to pull out into traffic. Do you think it matters if he sees you? Damn right it does. If he pulls out in front of you a collision is inevitable unless you dump the bike, which means you will skip along the pavement like flat rock flung over a still body of water. Or, you’ll hit the car and be launched into low orbit and wind up as bloody pulp. Neither is pleasant to contemplate. It would be nice to know what he is thinking, right? So do you think it matters if the United States correctly understands what the leaders of Russia and China are thinking? And, conversely, does it matter if the leaders of Russia and China correctly discern the intentions of U.S. leaders? The answer–YES on both counts.

Read this excellent piece at Larry's blog. It is this ever important issue of situational (I know where my enemy is) and tactical (I know what my enemy is going to do) awareness which is applicable not just to war but to human activity as a whole. That is why also intelligence craft exists from good ol' human spies to space-based ISR assets. 

It goes without saying that the United States lacks understanding of her "enemies" completely. And it is dangerous, as Larry concludes:

We face a comparable dilemma in the breakdown of communication between Washington and Beijing. False assumptions reinforced by wrong conclusions almost inevitably lead to a deadly miscalculation. Normally, the national intelligence agencies of a nation are supposed to provide a dose of truth and reality. That is the real danger facing America now. The CIA and the FBI are politically compromised and are institutionally averse to telling the President and his team they are wrong. While I no longer have access to current U.S. intelligence, I still hear things through the grapevine of former colleagues and the news is unsettling. There was a time when there were “Dutch Uncles” in the CIA. A “Dutch Uncle” is one who admonishes sternly and bluntly for the benefit of the recipient. Instead of a Dutch Uncle, the intelligence community is behaving more like Wormtongue, a rogue villain in Lord of the Rings. A dangerous situation when our leaders need to understand correctly what the other “guys” think.

Should have the United States known what they were dealing with in terms of Russia in 2014, there would have been a higher probability of this Ukrainian clusterfuck being avoided. But they seem to never learn, and now, they face a complete military and political disaster and a crashing defeat of their "plans", which have been nothing more than practical "sublimation" of the delusions, ignorance and incompetence of people who conceived them. As Mark Chapman, in one of the most hilarious hyperbole I read in years, noted when talking about a particular BSer, who do populate plans-making circles in the West:

The foregoing considered, it will not surprise you, then, that I would be as likely to eat soup made from boiling turnips and Boris Johnson’s bicycle seat as I would be to pay attention to further gobbling from Lucasville.

That's the only way of dealing with people, who, as Larry puts it, do not get that: It Is Critical to Understand What the Other “guy” Thinks.

Larry Doing Larry's Thing. Great Analysis.

Especially against the background of Ukie Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov suddenly discovering one million strong army in 404 and announcing (right, I kid you not--he announced it) the coming counter-offensive to retake South. I don't know what kind a potent shit they are taking now in Kiev, but thankfully Larry Johnson is here for us not to scratch our heads in vain, trying to understand what Kiev is up to. So Larry opens:

The average person trying to decipher the meaning from the daily briefing of the Russian Minister of Defense (aka MOD) is likely overwhelmed by the long list of Ukrainian military units being hit and the variety of weapon systems employed against the Ukrainians. Let me break it down for you. I have taken the liberty of putting the identities of the Ukrainian units and their locations into a spreadsheet. The result is eye-opening and, I think, will help you grasp what Russia is doing.

Then he proceeds with some numbers based on Russian MoD. And he concludes correctly with this:

Russia is playing its cards very close to its vest. While the MOD briefings provide a handy laundry list for tracking the kinds of losses the Ukrainians are suffering in men and materiel, Russia is not telling the full story of the devastation they are unleashing on Ukraine’s military. But the goal set by Putin–i.e., demilitarization–is being realized. Up to this point Russia has not targeted the command headquarters of Ukraine’s military in Kiev. If the U.S. and NATO persist in ramping up the weaponry they send to Ukraine, Russia has the ability to hit the top level command posts. If Russia does this they will likely kill and wound U.S. and other NATO officers. Russia has avoided launching such an attack, but if U.S. supplied weapons continue to kill civilians in the Donbass Russian patience may reach its end and they will send a devastating message.

I also want to stress, again, that bar some obvious high-end involvement by Russian combat aviation, stand-off weapons, obvious state-of-the-art ISR and artillery, it is clear that by now the bulk of fighting on the ground is performed by LDNR forces and Russia's National Guard (Rosgvardiya) and main forces, are being held in reserved and are used very sparingly. So, I guess Ukie 1 million-strong army is about to get acquainted with all the firepower of Russian Army, wink, wink. 

In related news, somebody started to circulate the picture allegedly from Germany, stating that more and more similar banners appear all throughout Germany. Can our German friends confirm or otherwise this? I understand it is not a mass phenomena, but if thousands of Poles marched in Warsaw with slogans demanding Poland quit NATO and join BRICS, one would assume that Germans, especially Eastern Germans, might have their own view on current German government, about which Mark Chapman did a good write up today. So, here is the photo:

It asks Russians not to mix ordinary Germans with their lying media and insane government. Most Russians don't, but still... as in O.Henry's Roads of Destiny.  

Some Headlines From My Friends.

Larry had it with US Media BS about 404 and he sounded off on Germany's Economy Minister Herr Robert Habeck:

If you think the West has learned its lesson and opted to focus on truth, think again. Germany’s Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, was peddling these whoppers to his own government this week:

Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are still taking a heavy toll on the Russian war machine. . . .The Russian economy is collapsing,” . . . adding that Germany had played its part here by reducing exports to Russia in March by 60%, with an even sharper fall expected in April.

The obvious question for any reporter with the brain power of a cretin would be, “what is the evidence that Russia’s economy is collapsing?” The truth is that all sectors are firing on all cylinders. Just because Germany has decided to commit economic hari kari by declining to purchase cheap Russian oil, does not mean that Russia is bleeding out financially. The Economist reported two weeks ago that Russia is running a record trade surplus.

It is worth noting, that Herr Habeck, same as Fyodor Lukyanov, has degree in philology and philosophy. He is literally Doctor of Philosophy in... Philosophy. In other words, he wouldn't be able to run 7-11 Store without bankrupting it in  a week, let alone German economy which he helps to obliterate very efficiently. Needless to say, the guy is also a dedicated Grune. Hey, don't look at me, Germans elect these freaks. 

In related news, Mark Chapman came up with one of the best article titles in a long while, especially against the background of my own complete inability to come up with meaningful title and I speak about this often. Most of the titles of my books and chapters are created by my wonderful editor. So, here is the title:

How Many Frequent-Flyer Miles Would it Cost to Send Ursula von der Leyen Non-Stop to Hell?

Let's face it, Western politics is run by amateurs. So is economy, as for military--boy, are we going to be describing this clusterfuck for many years to come. It is something very special. The Commander of California's National Guard General Baldwin is so upset, is so hurt emotionally, that he proposed sending MiG-29s to Ukraine, because, obviously, his formation which was responsible for "training" the VSU failed miserably preparing their subjects for real war, because neither Baldwin nor his "trainees" know much about real war. There you go, see the result for yourself. That is why Baldwin has all those fantastical ideas and even thinks that sending US combat aircraft to 404 will change much. Not really. As Vladimir Putin himself went on record today (in Russian)--the armaments which West supplies to 404 are "peanuts" for Russian air defense systems. I am telling you: wait for a White Paper on Russian AD in 404--it will be a wowser. Some people in Pentagon (not General Baldwin, of course) already know that. This is you primer for Saturday.