Russia and Azerbaijan have a substantial land border and share Caspian Sea. To the South Iran and Azerbaijan share even longer border. Moreover, Azerbaijan and Turkiye share only a teeny-weeny land common segment through Azerbaijan's exclave Nakhchivan which is separated from mainland by ... Armenia. Hence the issue of Zangezur Corridor.
2. Turkiye, for all her potential and development is still not in premier league. In the same time, Russia is a global superpower and she also has a very large Azerbaijani community which is one of the major pillars of ... Azerbaijan's economy.
3. Now, the issue of Iran, which already emerged, despite the damage, as a LEADER of Ummah demonstrating courage, military sophistication and immense influence on global affairs by controlling Strait of Hormuz and parading the US and Israel as military paper tigers in head-to-head clash--this is serious.
4. And then, both Azeris and Iranians are Shiites. That matters hugely. Erdogan talks a lot, Iran does and already achieved a strategic victory.
That's the balance sheet for Ilham Aliev's consideration. Apart from many other items. So, whose side will Azerbaijan take? It is sandwiched between global superpower and regional superpower, both of who are de facto and de jure--allies. These allies also need land corridor to each-other and Azerbaijan is placed exactly in the middle of this corridor. Now, especially against the background of the latest events, Aliev must ask himself a number of questions:
a) How safe are Aliev clan's assets in UK and other banks, especially with the West being bankrupt and facing economic (militarily it already happened) destruction?
b) Does Azerbaijan want to be associated with a critical Eurasian military-economic monster which is RIC (Russia-Iran-China) and profit from it--the rewards already now seem to be astronomical--or will it continue to look towards imploding West?
c) In the end, SMO is a message to all Russia's limitrophes who decided to bet their houses on the West's promises. And how's that relations between Azerbaijan and Israel are going, with Israel and its pathetic military being beaten in the bloody pulp. Evidently somebody in Azeri military, who probably graduated from the campus of my former naval academy, which today serves as Geidar Aliev Military Institute, failed in real military analysis of Israel's REAL power.
I would say, Aliev simply has no choice, especially considering an uneasy economic situation in Azerbaijan. Moreover--never forget "the street" be it Arab street, Azeri street et al--people on the street see what is going on and they take note. So ... it all comes naturally, if you know what I mean.
Keep in mind, Azerbaijan does have its own problems, but President Aliev being a Soviet-educated diplomat from a family of a major political figure in the USSR, and a personal friend of Vladimir Putin didn't fail to recognize the so called "golden path" for Azerbaijan and it is certainly not with the West. Remarkably, Azerbaijan drifting towards BRICS, that is by default towards Russia, means also de facto a distancing in geopolitical terms from Turkey, despite a lot of serious economic, military and cultural ties between the two. But Turkiye herself, as much as her being a very important regional player, cannot solve her economic problems within Western framework, with Azerbaijan getting ready to be admitted into BRICS also spells the end to Erdogan's trans-Turkic ambitions, however unrealistic to start with in the vicinity of Russia returning herself into the exclusive club of global superpowers.
There is a lot what is going on in the world today that is directly related to the upcoming Kazan BRICS summit and those anxiously anticipated historic steps which will be taken there. Meanwhile, just recently, Russian and Chinese navies wrapped up yet another exercise, this time in the Sea of Okhotsk, with both navies operating as a joint naval force.
Well, many don't even know Kennan's clarification of his policy of "containment". He stressed that he meant an ideological containment, the US wanted a military one. In the end, Kennan and his experience were totally ignored and the new crop of the American "diplomats"--badly educated, ignorant but high on the American exceptionalism and influence of ethno-religious lobbies in D.C., decided that they knew better. They didn't. The results of this ignorant arrogance we all observe today. Nor should we forget that Kennan was not always that benign either, but at least he knew about Russia way more than modern Department of State whose situational awareness in this regard is nearly non-existent. Ideology rules.
Well, first "results" of Russia sanctions are becoming already known:
You see? That explains why Russia not only anticipated but effectively sacrificed Nord Stream 2. In fact, Russia's reaction of disgust to Herr Scholz' attitudes towards war crimes committed by 404 in LDNR could have been this proverbial straw that broke camel's back. You cannot deal with these people, they have no consciousness and morals and Russians are pretty good at understanding when any activity becomes the exercise in futility.
In seemingly unrelated news, Russia and Azerbaijan reached a landmark agreement today (in Russian) and signed joint declaration on Allied Relations. This event is much bigger than one may expect and is indicative of a process of consolidation of Russia's near abroad not only as markets but safe economic and political environment. In related news, Russia is removing her diplomats from Kiev, rightly so--shit is about to hit the fan in Ukraine in industrial quantities. For people to understand what modern Ukraine is, the analogy to Gulyaipole may help with understanding when viewed as a center of Mahno movement. Mahno being a euphemism for anarchy, fluid loyalties and robbery. You know, like modern day Ukraine.
First point is a squealing of Turkish assets once their balls are placed in the vice of real geopolitics and real military power. As Azeri news agency Haqqin (Time) reports:
Translation:The chairman of the Turan party, Jahandar Bayoglu, called for the removal of all pro-Russian officials from power in Azerbaijan. According to him, the country should take this step in order to protect itself from external influences. The politician stressed that it is necessary to take control and remove from the leadership of all pro-Russian officials, deputies and heads of public organizations. The party chairman called on the head of state to dissolve the Milli Mejlis and start new socio-economic reforms. Bayoglu believes that if the country's leadership does not take these decisive steps, then the events that are taking place in Kazakhstan may repeat in Azerbaijan. He added that pro-Russian forces have infiltrated the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Security Service and the Ministry of Defense. The politician also called for the completion of the transition of the Azerbaijani army to the model of the Turkish army as soon as possible.
Aw, how cute)) I have news for this Turan dude, the first pro-Russian official in Azerbaijan is its President Ilham Aliev who is a good friend of Vladimir Putin and, unlike Erdogan, is extremely well-educated and cultured man who understands the real score. And there is a lot to this score what Bayoglu doesn't understand precisely because he is the leader of Turan party. I will omit here elaboration of a fallacy of pan-Turkism but, of course, events in Kazakhstan just all but killed this idea in every practical sense and it is not only Ankara which cries now, there are very many people in London who, yet again, discovered that contrived geopolitical concepts mean very little if you are not a superpower. UK is NOT a superpower, it is a second rate power which still suffers from phantom pains of once greatness which is no more. They better learn and internalize this fact both at Downing Street 10 and at Hanslope Park. The sun has set on your empire, just live with it.
The second point is Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stating today:
Translation:NATO has to pack up its things and move back to the borders of 1997.
I know, it hurts, there will be (already, actually) many pompous statements from the likes of Tony Blinken or Jens Stoltenberg but, thanks to Bernhard of Moon of Alabama who posted brilliant Michael Brenner's piece on US foreign policy, it is totally warranted to present what one of very few true American foreign policy experts writes about the mental state of US "elites".
Americanism
provides a Unified Field Theory of self-identity, collective
enterprise, and the Republic’s enduring meaning. When one element is
felt to be in jeopardy, the integrity of the whole edifice becomes
vulnerable. In the past, American mythology energized the country in
ways that helped it to thrive. Today, it is a dangerous hallucinogen
that traps Americans in a time warp more and more distant from reality. There is a muted reflection of this strained condition in the evident truth thatAmericans
have become an insecure people. They grow increasingly anxious about
who they are, what they are worth and what life will be like down the
road. This
is an individual and collective phenomenon. They are related insofar as
self-identity and self-esteem are bound up with the civic religion of
Americanism. To a considerable degree, it’s been like this since the
very beginning. A
country that was “born against history” had no past to define and shape
the present. A country that was born against tradition had no rooted
and common sense of meaning and value that cut deeply into the national
psyche. A country that was born against inherited place and position
left each individual at once free to acquire status and obliged to do so
for insignia of rank were few.
This is an excellent definition of the underlying causes for the American "exceptionlaism" which is an obverse side of insecurity. I write about it non-stop for decades, really. My first book is almost entirely built around this premise. Reality, like gravity, is a bitch--no number of narratives by ignorant and uneducated American journos can obfuscate it without creation of a serious nation-wide cognitive dissonance which inevitably translated into the psychological, if not psychiatric, disorders on a massive scale. Reality will inevitably bite into one's ass no matter how one tries to construct own alternative "reality". Will see how it will go in Geneva tomorrow but Ryabkov was actually very upbeat today about preliminary talks, meaning dinner, (in Russian). We'll see. Geneva is just a start, Russia is not interested in humiliating the US at this stage (the US does a swell job on its own) and still leaves an honorable, face-saving exit for the US, which, in the end could be presented as a triumph of common sense and superpowers working together. For the US internally it could play well against the background of upcoming mid-terms and a serious economic downturn.
If not, well--chose on your own pawns which will be removed form the "chess board" by Russia and what new weapon systems will be announced and deployed without leaving NATO any option but to capitulate. But that is the food for thought for tomorrow. This is just a part of the VTA's IL-76s yesterday, at some point of time during the day, in Alma-Ata airport alone.
As you all know VTA was also transporting ODKB forces to other Kazakh cities, so make your own conclusions on Russia's air mobility capability. Giant AN-124s are not even shown here, while they were also activelyinvolved in deployment of ODKB forces.
224th Flight Detachment of Russian Defense Ministry, which operates those giants, has 8 of them at its disposal. Single An-124 can, well, just get acquainted here with what cargo can a single 124 take on-board, and keep in mind that its can also take some number of paratroopers in its pressurized compartments. Most of VDV personnel is carried by IL-76s. Those who had to, they got the message.
I have a profound respect for Colonel Douglas Macgregor, whom I count as one of the diamonds in a cesspool of US "elites", but even this exemplary American officer has his flaws. We all do. Yesterday Macgregor published a piece in The American Conservative which opens with a broadside.
Here, we need to clarify some things immediately, because there is NO "rivalry" between Russia and Turkey for a simple reason that two countries are in a completely different leagues across the whole spectrum of nations' activities ranging from the economy, to military to science to what have you. The United States and Russia are rivals, China and the United States are rivals, France and Germany are latent rivals. Turkey and Russia are not, not even close. Turkey is a regional power with its own set of objectives, grossly embellished by Erdogans' personal ambitions and delusions but to be a rival to someone one needs to have an appropriate geopolitical weight.
Here is a recent (warning: it is Bloomberg) review of Turkey's economy and here is how it is being assessed by Turks themselves, and keep in mind that the actual "growth" is not a rebound after Covid:
Moreover, the growth of a manufacturing sector in Turkey is a manufacturing sector of what used to be called in good ol' times a developing country. As you can see yourself, in the end government spending, services, agriculture with construction constitute a lion share of Turkish GDP.
And when it comes to "developing" it means only one thing--either heavy licensing in what constitutes the foundation of military-industrial capacity or tier 2 and lower participation on joint projects without technology transfer. Such as F-35 in which Turkey participated as a wing and engine parts manufacturer. In other words, even when one sees graceful Milgem-class frigates--an indigenous Turkish combat ship, one has to remember that much of these ships innards are not of Turkish origin.
And this is here where Macgregor begins to lose the plot. He states that:
Ankara’s successful intervention to support Azerbaijan’s seizure of
Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian control has worsened the relationship.
Armenia’s humiliation may shake the resolve of others allied with
Moscow.
Here is where he makes a huge mistake:
1. Starting with Turkey. Turks, as all people of the region, have a propensity for exaggeration of own significance and successes. Turkey was fast to assign the credit for Azerbaijan's success in Nagornyi Karabakh to itself, especially pressing grossly overrated Turkish UAVs' capabilities. In reality, while representatives of Turkish General Staff were present at a planning and execution stage of Azerbaijan's operations, a decisive factor in Azeri success were not Turkish UAVs but Azerbaijan's overwhelming advantage over Armenian forces there in terms of MLRS and artillery, ranging from a devastating Smerch 9A52 systems to good ol' self-propelled guns. This, combined with a decade long training of Azerbaijan's Army specifically for this operation and a flow (worth $4 billion) of advanced Russian weapons, including T-90 tanks, S-300 PMU2 air defense and all kinds of infantry weapons, assured Azerbaijan's success.
2. Russia from the git go took a deliberate stand-off position on this matter and I will not delve into the list of all reasons for that, but this position was well calculated and, in the long run, served Russia's strategic interests against the background of crumbling Russian-Armenian relations. In other words--Russia tacitly allowed Azerbaijan to take what Azerbaijan counts as it's rightfully own. Needless to say, that President Putin was and remains a very good friend of Aliev's family (including both human and professional closeness with late Geydar Aliev) and has excellent relations with Ilham Aliev. This IS NOT the case with Armenia's leadership and especially Armenian diaspora.
In other words, Russia doesn't see much danger from Turkey having presence in the region and what are the limits of this presence, I am sure, Putin and Ilham Aliev had a very constructive discussion on this issue. Needless to say, that for all assistance from Sunni Turkey, Azerbaijanis are Shiites and overwhelming majority of them lives in...Iran, in three provinces symptomatically named...Azerbaijan. Iran has an immense influence in Azerbaijan's politics and economy and this factor cannot be discounted against the background of Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation. In other words--it is much more complex than the black and white picture Macgregor draws and there was NO shaking of faith in regards to Nagorny Karabakh, which, incidentally, is not even recognized by Armenia proper.
As for Turkish dramatically overrated UAVs' operations against what turned out to be a grossly outdated and untrained Artsakh air defense, and Turkey having, in reality, a rather mediocre military force when faced with determined and experienced enemy--Turkish operations' collapse in Idlib in 2020 once Syrians pulled in their good ol' Osas and Buks is an exhibit A of Turkey's military limitations.
Here is one of the vaunted Bayraktars. Russians themselves have no compaction about bombing the shit out of Turkey's supported anti-Assad formations and, in this respect, with Russia settling in Syria for a very long haul and Assad winning latest elections in Syria, well, too bad for Turkey because, in the end, Russia can always do the tomato and tourist trick and nothing Erdogan can do about it. Putin knows who Erdogan is. So, Macgregor's conclusion, while I understand where he is coming from, that:
If Biden were to ask Putin where the next Sunni Islamist Caliphate will
arise, Putin would likely tell him: “Mr. President, it’s already here.
It’s called Turkey, my nightmare.”
Is a bit too simplistic and Turkey for Russia is not a rival but possible minor spoiler, not to mention the fact that grandiose aspirations by Turkey usually (historically) have been cut down by the reality of military-political balance in the region which seldom favored Turks no matter what they tried. So aspirations of Erdogan, as Macgregor points out:
According to Erdogan’s critics, Erdogan’s strategic vision
for the Turkish nation is to be recognized on the world stage as a
global power. This means Turkey must become a Balkan power, a
Mediterranean power, a Middle Eastern power, a North African and even
limited African power, a Caucasian power, a Central Asian power, a
Eurasian power, and especially a Muslim power.
Is a bridge too far in the 21st century, because to become all that Turkey needs to move in the direction opposite to what Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood preach and that runs immediately into the realities of modern industrial economy and the wall of Iran's own interests in the region and Russians know this damn well. That is why they sit above this geopolitical dance and observe, while contemplating what to do next and who to help. After all, Erdogan is mortal and is 67 and has a very nerve-wrecking life. Plus, it is good to have options. Simple as that.
So, no, Turkey is not Russia's (or Putin's) nightmare, not even close. Psychos in D.C., however, are, because unlike Turks they are non-agreement capable 100% of a time.
First, let's start with debunking the point about "failure of secularism". Oh, please! Ilham Aliyev had absolutely different thing in mind. For starters, even in Soviet times it was a normal occurrence for some deceased Party bureaucrat to be buried in Muslim tradition, with Mullah present and all that. Azerbaijan was always a Muslim country but initially Russia imperial and, later, Soviet rule provided an extremely serious boost to Azerbaijan's development which fused with a rather rich and colorful Azerbaijani culture. Among all former Soviet Caucasus republics, now independent states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan in 20th century was most genuinely multi-cultural place, with the capital of Baku being an extraordinarily cosmopolitan city with very large, almost equal in size, Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian diasporas populating it, with yet another smaller diasporas of Jews, Germans and heirs of Russian Molokans constituting the rest. That gave the rise to a unique recognizable identity and even lingo of Bakunians (Bakintsy) who were Bakunians first, and Azerbaijani, Russians or Armenians second. In other words, Azerbaijan has a vast and, with the exception of tragedies of connected to the collapse of the USSR, positive experience of true integration. Enough to mention that even today a huge share of Azerbaijani public schools teaches students in Russian language, despite Russian diaspora in Azerbaijan dwindling to few tens of thousands after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Just to demonstrate. Here is 2018 graduation ceremony in Baku's school # 145 (my wife graduated it)--it is still school with in depth physics-mathematics curriculum. Pay attention--all of it is in Russian, and in fact repeats to the smallest detail almost Soviet, and, in general, modern Russian graduation traditions.
Same goes for higher education and with many Azerbaijani youth doing their higher ed. in Russian. So, Aliyev's speech is not about "secularism" or its "failure"--quite opposite. Ilham, who himself is a graduate of famous MGIMO and a son of possibly the only one man in Politburo who could stop the collapse of the USSR, Geidar Aliyev, knows where the actual Islamization stops. Here is Ilham's wife and mover and shaker of Aliyev's business, Mehriban Aliyeva, with Putin four days ago during inter-regional forum in Moscow.
I dare to say, that Azerbaijan's moves are precisely against talibanization and recognizing the fact that, especially after Turkey's moves, it will be a traditional, and dear to many good honest hard working Azerbaijanis, Moscow (and Russia in general) with who the fates of their country lie. I deliberately omit here the issue of Nagorny Karabakh--it is a separate and a very complex topic on its own--but the number of Azerbaijanis living and doing business in Russia is large and yes, by far not all of them are selling vegetables and fruits at the markets, nor are involved in the ethnic organized crime--an inevitable "benefit" of multi-ethnic state. Many are excellent doctors, engineers, people of art and culture and, in general, well-educated and highly socially adaptable people. In the end, it is all about geopolitics. For Azerbaijan, the West is far, Russia, on the other hand, is a few hours of drive north from Baku to Dagestan, same goes for Iran to the South. Plus, Baku commands serious reserves of oil and gas, plus, so called modern Western "values" are equally rejected in Moscow and Baku.
But even more importantly, Azerbaijan is a pivot state of the region and, speaking in a very simple language, she gets it one way or another if the "reputable" (/sarc) United States decide to commit suicide and go for Iran's jugular. There are 20+ million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Northern Iran, including in the province symptomatically called Azerbaijan. Boy, talk about the complexity of the region. Of course delusional "opposition" people in any nation sound all the same and read from the same script written either by Soros or CIA and they do sound stupid:
The president is “quite sincere”
in his opposition to European integration because “Europe means
democracy, free elections, rule of law, universal human rights and
social welfare,” Altay Goyushov, an opposition politician who heads the
Baku Research Institute, a think tank in the city, wrote on Facebook. “Aliyev wants to see a medieval monarchy in Azerbaijan,” he said.
That's the definition of being delusional. Especially when one talks about "democracy" in Europe which is run by corrupt homicidal EU bureaucracy and is dominated by political parties whose agendas are anything but "human rights" driven and have very little to do with "free" elections. In general, it all comes down to who will have better economic prospects with all that follows politically in the mid to long term future. It is Eurasia--pretty much no-brainer. As for Azerbaijani Armed Forces, guess who is in charge and what institutions many of them graduated from? Well, including my naval academy. Those people are not stupid, they can count and plan. They also can assess geopolitical situation and deduct power balance. I am sure they do it professionally and do identify trends well. Talk, especially about "human rights" and "democracy" (not to mention "rule of law") is cheap. The only things that matter are actions and things that work. Europe doesn't. So, it is not about Islam, or, rather, not about it primarily. It is about pure national interest and elites seeing future for themselves. Prosperity usually produces stable political situation, especially when one has to consider what neighborhood he (she) resides in. And, frankly, I would (and probably will, inshallah;)) rather visit Baku than Paris or Madrid. Beaches are good and the food is out of this world--I know, I was born there. In a sense that I have a slight idea about how it works.
Here are some additional views of modern day Baku. A warning, do not try to compare it with glitzy and tawdry Arab Gulfie newbie playgrounds such as Qatar or UAE.
I didn't really want to touch this topic but since it is a sad, 5th year, anniversary of the war coming to Donbass and Banderites openly, with "style", destroying the monument to Marshal Georgi Zhukov in what at some point of time was called the most Russian city in Ukraine, Kharkov, I think it is worth revisiting this Ukrainian topic.
We need this revisiting to shut down, finally, all those uber-patriotic voices which continue, albeit at much lower level, to whine about Russia not invading Ukraine in 2014 and trying to point out some hypothetical "benefits" of such an invasion. Those voices are wrong not only strategically or operationally, they are wrong (and ignorant) on a fundamental, cultural, level.
We should start from dispelling any illusions on the account of the so called Novorossiya and, grossly inaccurate, picture of Eastern Ukraine as being taken hostage by Western Ukraine Banderistas--this picture is only partially correct, to put it mildly, and does not reflect reality on the ground in the Eastern Ukraine. But first, let me give you some (very limited) pictures from my military life from 1988 through 1990 which resulted in a complete implosion of the USSR and war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I will abstain here from commenting rights and wrongs--but that was our life then and I know how half-a-million people look like running at you. Also how to live and serve in the city under siege with a lot of bullets flying around.
The reason I go "there"--a very painful memories--is simple: for whatever reason, when people are unified with a single idea, however bad or good it is, they move in hundreds thousands, if not millions and the place becomes hell. Here are some photos from Baku where Baku garrison, including cadets from my Alma Mater, and, of course, formations of MVD and DoD, were dealing with then, starting from 1988.
Disarming. Some of our people died.
Naval cadets at block-post.
Our guys (naval cadets--I was an officer then), actually, had one block-post literally next to our high-rise--very eventful nights, to put it mildly. Apart from huge numbers of demonstrating people, as you may have already guessed, the next step is always--going for the guns and other weapons--that is what people in turmoil do. Mind you also, events in Caucasus which shook and dismantled USSR were happening in a still fairly well structured security-wise Soviet Union. And here is a tactical question: in the immediate aftermath of Crimea getting back home in 2014, the number of people protesting at Kharkov's main square (Kharkov is about the same size as Baku 1.5+ million people) never reached anything higher than 50,000 people at the most active days (compare this to Maidan in Kiev--order of magnitude more people), not to mention the fact that apart from taking the main building of regional administration, very little was done to ensure that "uprising" will be successful. There is a dramatic contrast here between, almost equal to Kharkov's size, Donetsk and much smaller Lugansk, who, while having massive demonstrations, went for the jugular: weapons, control of key administrative, financial, transport, military installations. They also formed militias immediately. This was not the case with allegedly "Russian" city of Kharkov. Why?
The answer is very simple: same as with Odessa which took its rape on May 2, 2014 never getting off its knees--Ukrainians DID happen as a political nation. As Rostislav Ishenko astutely observes--these are Russian speaking Ukrainians for who Ukraine is a self-contained prime value in their lives (in Russian) and they, in 2014, didn't want to go to Russia, period. Those are majority in what today is known as Novorossiya and these are not the people Russia needs to spend blood and treasure "liberating". In fact, any invasion by Russia for the sake of liberating allegedly "suffering" from svidomyte and Neo-Nazi dictatorship people there would have been a catastrophic mistake, since those people didn't want to be "liberated" and were completely content with Ukraine as their unique nation-state. In fact, should have Russian Army annihilated VSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces) in 2014, which would have resulted in catastrophic losses for VSU, that would have been precisely these rather dormant Ukrainians who would immediately radicalize to a Western Ukraine Banderist Neo-Nazi level. Not to interfere was a smart and wise decision by Kremlin, despite hysterical appeals by arm-chair "strategists" and other uber-patriots.
Today, at the dark fifth anniversary of the war in Donbass, we can observe clearly both correctness of the decision not to interfere, unlike it was in Donbass, where primarily Russian people rose up, in Ukraine and to let EU and US deal with the economic and moral hellhole Ukraine has become today. We may wax political or philosophical whatever we want, but to illustrate what this all means I can give an example, that in my brigade, the chief of counter-intelligence department (Special Department-Osobyi Otdel), Captain 2nd Rank, himself an Azeri was not serving USSR since 1988 so much as providing crucial information to Azeri nationalists. Just one example of many, same things were happening in Armenia and all over Caucasus--very many people were changing loyalties. Dzhokhar Dudaev rings the bell? And here is the catch, these are not anymore Ukrainians who rejected Russia and Russians, most of who from Ukraine either live in Donbass or already moved to Russia, but these are Russians today, unlike it was the case in 2014, who do not want anything in common with Ukrainians. Yes, Putin may continue with his politically necessary gospel of Russians and Ukrainians being brotherly peoples--this is simply not true. An overwhelming empirical evidence testifies to this.
Now that the Ukrainian economy is pretty much done and Ukraine has finally turned into a complete economic, cultural and intellectual shithole, many Ukrainians, those very same Ukrainians who in 2014 didn't want to be liberated, begin to grasp this simple reality and it hurts, badly. I wrote about it in 2017, today it is crystal clear--the fate of Ukraine is eventual disintegration, possibly due to a civil war (or wars) and, inevitably, Eastern Ukraine trying to whore itself out to anyone (not that it is not being done as I type this), while Western Ukraine will inevitably be divided between Poland, Hungary and Romania--let them deal with Banderistas--Eastern Ukraine will remain, well, irrelevant for Russia. I don't recall who drew this excellent parallel recently but Ukraine today is like that proverbial dead cat whose corpse neighbors throw over the fence at each-other's property to avoid dealing with rotting dead feline. This is exactly what is happening now between EU, USA and Russia. Russia is NOT going to put a single ruble into Ukraine (or whatever will be left of it) and once Nord Stream-2 and other pipe-lines are completed, Ukraine can go to hell and enjoy her status as parents of Sumerian civilization and diggers of the Black Sea. She eventually will be completely de-industrialized and will, finally, reach her desired status of a complete independence from Russia. Although, I have to correct myself--for the first time on my memory--I can say that Russia finally gained her independence from Ukraine and for that one has to thank profoundly and sincerely Vladimir Putin and those people from his circle who made the only correct decision in 2014--not to move a single battalion on Kharkov. After all, unlike in Caucasus in 1980s and 1990s, the numbers were simply not there and Kharkov deserves to lose monuments to Zhukov and its other famous people most of who considered themselves either Soviets or Russians.
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