A Few Importnat Points From My Friends.

First, Larry makes an astute observation. It is a classic intel analyst observation. 

Western analysts continue to be blinded by their deep-seated belief that Russia is a crumbling gas station and attributes the shortage to:

a combination of factors including maintenance at oil refineries, bottlenecks on railways and the weakness of the rouble, which incentivizes fuel exports.

Maybe. But let me suggest an alternative explanation. Russia is husbanding its stockpile of diesel fuel as a contingency for an offensive that will take control of Kiev and Odessa. Farfetched? Maybe. Recent remarks by Speaker of Russia’s Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, and echoed byForeign Minister Lavrov and Defense Chief Shoigu, carries an ominous message for the West — Russia is not interested in a negotiated settlement with Ukraine

Is Larry correct? He may well be, and even if this hypothesis will not actualize, it is one of those cases that the hypothesis was valid and professional. Will know soon enough.

 

That brings us to my other friend, Marat Khairullin, here is what Marat states:

На этой неделе стало окончательно ясно, что ВСУ уже даже не на пороге поражения, а прочно, обоими ногами перешло эту грань. И, выражаясь образно, дверь за этим порогом с треском захлопнулась, отступать уже некуда. Как сказал намедни Лавров — на поле боя, значит на поле боя. Адекватные люди, следящие за нашей официальной дипломатией, прекрасно знают, что глава нашей дипломатии отвечает за каждое свое слово. В данном случае, если он выразился так категорично, это значит, что наша сторона уверена, что лягушка уже сварилась, топор упал, кровавый рассвет украинский армии наступил, кирдык уже приземлился укропам на голову и т.д. — одним словом тенденция взяла свое.  

Translation: This week it became completely clear that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are no longer even on the verge of defeat, but have firmly crossed this line with both feet. And, figuratively speaking, the door behind this threshold slammed shut with a bang, there was nowhere to retreat. As Lavrov said the other day, on the battlefield means on the battlefield. Adequate people who follow our official diplomacy know very well that the head of our diplomacy is responsible for every word he says. In this case, if he expressed himself so categorically, this means that our side is sure that the frog has already been boiled, the ax has fallen, the bloody dawn of the Ukrainian army has arrived, the kirdyk has already landed on the dill’s head, etc. - in a word, the trend has taken its toll.  

 

If anyone wonders what "kirdyk" is--here is explanation. Obviously the synonym to kirdyk is good ol' Russian pizdets, but Marat cannot use it, of course;) But Marat makes this necessary accent on Lavrov's statement which was:

Russia’s Lavrov rubbishes Ukraine peace plan and warns conflict will be resolved on battlefield

For those who do not understand, let me translate--Lavrov didn't talk about 404 and the remnants of its army. No, Lavrov was talking about combined forces of NATO. Read Marat's piece in full, he also gives a very good insight into Lavrov's statement. It always was about NATO and now ALL Russian political top speaks about it openly--either the remnants of 404, which is a euphemism for NATO, follow Russian conditions or 404 ceases to exist, together with NATO whose military defeat, should it decide to commit a suicide, is not in doubt. It takes Lavrov and his nonchalant attitude to deliver the message.