Thursday, June 15, 2017

US Ukraine Delu..., I Mean Policy.

By now, I usually avoid reading any "analytical" materials from US main stream "media" or any other "intelligence" organizations--some materials of Communist Party of the Soviet Union Congresses contained more substance and actual analysis. Nor am I of a very high opinion of many representatives and senators in US Congress--incompetence (corruption) and delusion are a defining characteristics of many of them. Yet, even if to discount a traditional spin on everything, US Secretary of the State Rex Tillerson's statement on Ukraine (that is Russia) and the so called Minsk Agreements yesterday was a remarkable one. As Bloomberg Reports, Tillerson stated that:

Obviously, as was expected, some of US congressmen disagreed.
Tillerson’s remarks generated immediate resistance from Representative Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat.
“I hear what you’re saying, but I disagree because I believe that the only thing that Russia understands is tough talk, and if they think that we’re somehow willing to relax sanctions before they’ve complied with the Minsk framework and left Crimea, I think it will just encourage Putin to continue his bullying,” Engel said of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
I think Tillerson knows the game (at least part of it), Engel, on the other hand, doesn't, since exhibit all signs of mental disability which struck so many in US politics so hard. Two points immediately:

1. Engel doesn't know what "tough" is when applied to Russia. If he learns, which is not to be expected, his world would turn upside down.

2. Sanctions. Realistically, Russia doesn't care, whatever sanctions are. No doubt, there are many morons in Congress who would love to cut every single tie with Russia, including financial ties. Obviously, consequences will be disastrous for US-designed institutions first of all, but calculating outcomes is not legislators' forte.

I don't single US Congress out, there are many imbeciles in Russia's State Duma too, not to speak of European Parliament--man, that is where a density of idiocy is off the scale. But then again, "democracies" do tend to produce, at best, a mediocrity, at worst--sleazebags and down right stupid people.  Periodic emergence of truly great statesmen, such as Ike or FDR in American case, merely confirms the rule. Yet, Tillerson's statement is important one and this has everything to do with WHO will be paying for Ukraine minus Donbass (and eventually some areas of Eastern Ukraine). Anybody who is not struck with a severe case of Alzheimer or Dementia can easily recall that current regime in Kiev is flesh and blood of the EU and US, who organized and paid for events of early 2014 which brought to power in Ukraine a bunch of neonazis and oligarchs who got rid off a legitimate (yes, corrupt, but in Ukraine this is the only way) government. 

Things are not that peachy in Ukraine from any point of view. They do not work as planned--such as disastrous campaigns by Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia also didn't get sucked in directly into this conflict and Armed Forces of LDNR are doing their job just fine. It is also obvious that Russia will not allow any military resolution in Donbass. But, here is the catch. What those "great" strategists from State Department and other neocon think-tanks (Vicki "Fuck The EU" Nuland, anyone?) didn't understand was the fact that Russia is not interested in the whole Ukraine. The wet dream of D.C. neocons was Russia involving herself in Ukraine's civil war and getting stuck in the quagmire didn't come to reality. Russia is not going to pay for Ukraine and the mayhem which is coming (in fact, it is there already) in the process of Ukraine's inevitable disintegration. That leaves EU and US with the necessity to deal with this festering hellhole right in the middle of Europe. What was conceived as a valuable bargaining chip in geopolitical game against Russia is suddenly reduced to a trash, penny stock for Russians and a huge pain in the ass for Europe. Let it deal with it. US, meanwhile, and Tillerson's statement is precisely about that, wants out.

Short of outright genocide of Russians in Ukraine--and there are many of those in EU and US who would love to see that--Russia is not going to intervene. Many loyal Ukrainians and Russo-phones moved to Russia already. Let Western Ukraine deal with her European neighbors such as Hungary and, of course, Poland--it is their business and eventually both Hungary and Poland will grow territory-wise. The rest? Who knows. Ukraine can not be singled out of a larger US geopolitical game which was (still is) designed to weaken and eventually destroy Russia. After Ukraine, overwhelming majority of Russians, including Russian political elites, have no doubts whatsoever about US intentions. In the end, empirical evidence is there, right in a front of Russia's nose. 

Here we have to look at a larger picture. Yes, President Trump was successful in "convincing" Saudi Arabia to "suddenly" develop a huge interest in "investing" in US. This money couldn't have come at a better time for US which, frankly, simply ran out of resources to meaningfully "rule" the world. Trump knows it, he is a smart man. So, in the absence of those resources, and US has way bigger fish to fry than Ukraine, strategic tasks of addressing US internal economic situation, not being thrown out of the Middle East and facing off with China will require immense resources and that leaves Ukraine in a position of a free loader who provides very little, if any, benefit to US' strategic plans. Sorry folks, nothing personal, just business. Now, US needs to extricate herself from Ukrainian quagmire through some acceptable arrangement and without losing her face. I think Russia can accommodate such a desire but only on conditions of EU getting Ukraine on their books. Also, sorry folks, nothing personal--just business. In the end, Rex Tillerson is also a shrewd, highly experienced businessman--he knows how the deals are made and what it takes to close them. Russians know this too. Today, during his Direct Link with Russia Putin was explicit about Russia's intentions in turning Syrian Army into modern force, the same is being done with LDNR forces, which, in case of unpleasant contingencies, may be upgraded really fast into world-class military force. A lot will depend on personal meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, I think they may like each-other, for the rest in D.C.--they better start taking blood thinners to avoid heart attacks or strokes. We'll see....

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