Tuesday, February 17, 2015

A Brief Thought On The Fate Of Debaltsevo.

1. Even the brief review of the real info sources this morning allows to conclude that Debaltsevo cauldron, where, by different estimates, between 3,000 and 7,000 Ukrainian troops could be trapped, is being reduced successfully by the VSN (Armed Forces Of Novorossia).  This was expected even against the background of Minsk-2 agreement, which was the last attempt of Europe to face the consequences of its own idiocy and being a geopolitical midget at the service of its US master. 

2. Now, even THEY (and they are US mainstream presstitudes) begin to suspect something.    

The only reaction to that could be expressed by the good ole' "Duh!" and "Haven't I told you so?"

3. Operations around, and now inside, Debaltsevo cauldron showed yet again:

a) no matter who trains you--some Battalion Tactical Groups of VSU were trained to the NATO "standards" at Yavorsky Proving Grounds by US and Polish instructors--it takes more than just some shiny military toys and COIN to plan and conduct a real combined arms operations in peer-to-peer or peer-to-near-peer environment. How "well" US "trained" troops performed had been demonstrated with the lightning speed by the Georgian Army, which disintegrated in 72 hours after facing the elements of the Russian 58th Army in 2008. 

b) The competence of staffs, their ability to plan operations and employ all available C4ISR complex in order to "run" battlefield is a decisive factor. Ukrainian staff structures from bottom up are guided by everything BUT the real military competence, even when they have all necessary informational and advising support from NATO;

c) Factor of morale and clear understanding of the meaning of war remains as relevant as ever;

d) For COIN crowd, yet again--Combined Arms Operations remain a principal method of the Continental Warfare;

4. The ferocity of battles, the scale of casualties of the Civil War in Ukraine are such, that even Russian VSN volunteers, veterans of two Chechen campaigns and even Afghanistan, were forced to admit that they never saw anything like this. It is a meat-grinder.  

5. This war, at this stage, is being prosecuted by Kiev junta mostly for a punitive and, to put it mildly, even irrational reasons. It is also is driven by a chaos in the political snake pit in Kiev;  

6. The consequences of yet another defeat of VSU in Donbass can have a serious political fallout for Kiev junta and its US and European curators. In fact, some gangsters in Kiev may not even live to see themselves in a front of a jury for their war crimes. But the moment of truth is coming. Somebody has to answer for atrocity being committed against the people of Novorossia. They will answer.


  1. Smoothie, don't be so harsh on Ukrainian army. They fight as they can and often bravely. You should know that there was no military tradition and institutions created in the short 25 years of independence and (fortunately!) no experience. What about Russia? First Chechen war, massive corruption in armed services after dissolution of USSR? Even the Georgian war was botched in some respects (air force action, communication systems). And besides, the war will end some day. But hatred which many Ukrainians feel toward Russians would remain for very long time (look at Poland and Baltic countries). What would the result of this war look like? What was/is the point?

  2. They are fighting a war their masters in Kiev created and are now losing.
    Worse, they are terrorising and killing the civil population of Donbass.
    You can't be harsh enough with them.

    Russia learned from its military mistakes.
    Why did Ukraine fail to learn from Russia's military mistakes?

  3. British journalist Graham Philip's asked a soldier named Alexander from Dnepropetrovsk a very direct question:
    Graham: How do you feel about fighting your brother?
    Alexander: Like shit. What you think I am satisfied with myself?
    Graham: What's the difference between the people of Dnepropetrovsk and Donbass?
    Alexender: Ask up there. Points his thumb.

  4. Not being burnt in trade union's building for beliefs