The American Conservative's ...

... senior editor needs to take a few serious courses in actual history, policy and strategy--I omit here courses on operational art and operations, he will not get it--and try to write with at least a pretense of objectivity, when trying to portray Trump's sheer failure as some kind of "strategy" instead of kindergarten level hustling around SMO, trying to gain whatever could be portrayed as America's "victory" and DJT's "diplomatic triumph". I, of course, do not expect the author of this drivel to grasp the critical issue of COFM. 

Andrew Day posits:

Simply put, Washington doesn’t have big enough sticks to force Russia to stop the war—the “unipolar moment” truly is over. Fortunately, Trump has managed to engineer a large carrot that could help entice Moscow to make peace. In the opening weeks of the administration, the White House not only reestablished diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin but put on the table a grand U.S.-Russia rapprochement, which Putin seems to desire. In last week’s track II talks, the Russians conveyed a strong interest in better bilateral relations. Trump should continue to promote closer ties between Washington and Moscow but signal that failure to resolve the war in Ukraine would jeopardize this broader diplomatic project. He should also make clear—not only to Putin but to Russia hawks in Washington—that Moscow would get sanctions relief if it ended the war. If Trump, through wise deployment of carrots and sticks, manages to coax Putin to the negotiating table, he should use the peace talks not only to try resolving the current conflict but to probe Moscow’s intentions. This would require differentiating between Russian demands that arise from legitimate security concerns and those that bespeak nefarious designs. 

LOL. I like Andrew Day's insouciance and conviction that Moscow seeks:

1. Sanctions relief. No, make no mistake--this item is in the list of demands but Andrew Day should refer himself to this (barely a month ago): 

Пресс-секретарь российского лидера Дмитрий Песков призвал внимательно слушать президента России Владимира Путина в вопросе снятия антироссийских санкций. Об этом представитель Кремля сообщил в интервью журналисту ВГТРК Павлу Зарубину. «Вы знаете, если у вас возникают подобные вопросы, у меня один совет: слушайте внимательно Путина. Что сказал Путин, выступая на съезде РСПП? Никакие санкции не снимут. Санкции - это надолго, это постоянные меры по сдерживанию России», - подчеркнул политик.

Translation: The Russian leader's press secretary Dmitry Peskov called for listening carefully to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the issue of lifting anti-Russian sanctions. The Kremlin representative said this in an interview with VGTRK journalist Pavel Zarubin. "You know, if you have such questions, I have one piece of advice: listen carefully to Putin. What did Putin say when he spoke at the RSPP congress? No sanctions will be lifted. Sanctions are for a long time, they are permanent measures to contain Russia," the politician emphasized.

Russians are not naïve and know about the United States orders of magnitude more than the US knows about Russia. If people at TAC think that Russians expect any lifting of sanctions, especially from Trump, I have a bridge to sell them.

2. Restoration of a diplomatic dialogue between Russia and the US is not some kind of a goodwill gesture or carrot--it has EVERYTHING to do with:

a) Necessity of the two nuclear superpowers to stay away from escalation;

b) Trump's understanding of a pitiful state of the US military and military-industrial base;

c) A dramatic loss of the arms race by the US.

These are the main factors, together with current administration's course on (futile) preserving Ukraine as a future place d'armes against Russia, which drove DJT into his "peace" rhetoric. In some sense, Trump is just the more entertaining and coherent version of Biden and in terms of any kind of rapprochement with Russia is driven by weakness, not sincere desire to stop the bloodshed. Russians are keenly aware of that. And when Day speaks about this:

As for demilitarization, the U.S. should be open to demands that Ukraine relinquish long-range missiles, but it should resist any calls for Kiev to give up air-defense systems, land mines, and other defensive munitions. Washington might also propose to have offensive weaponry positioned in southeastern Poland for release to Ukraine only in the event of future Russian aggression.

He should learn first that all of Ukraine's "long-range missiles" have been supplied by NATO, and he also should recall this:

«Что происходит сегодня в принципе тоже понятно. По всей линии боевого соприкосновения наши войска владеют стратегической инициативой. Есть все основания полагать... Я еще совсем недавно говорил, что мы их дожмем, но есть основания полагать, что мы их добьем», — сообщил российский лидер во время беседы с моряками подводной лодки «Архангельск».

Translation: "What is happening today is also clear in principle. Along the entire line of combat contact, our troops have the strategic initiative. There is every reason to believe... I said quite recently that we will put the squeeze on them, but there is reason to believe that we will finish them off," the Russian leader said during a conversation with the sailors of the Arkhangelsk submarine.

Unlike Trump, Putin doesn't do theatrics, doesn't make grandiose statements and doesn't sell BS packaged as "achievement" and TAC people are advised to learn what "strategic initiative" is and what it all means for the United States and the Trump's Administration. This may get them some dose of much needed reality of the US sustaining a historic humiliating defeat. Defeated do not get to dictate conditions.

No Shit!

Thanks to Scott Ritter who posted the screenshot of Politico in his UTube channel. Here is the Captain Obvious piece No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive from this rag:

If Ukraine’s supporters were hoping for a breakthrough after Kyiv’s forces made a new push in the southeast of the country last week, they were sorely disappointed. The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters. Ukraine now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades, said one of the DOD officials, who like others interviewed for this newsletter was granted anonymity to discuss operational details. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots. “They are making mostly small, incremental gains” on all three axes, the official said. “They are still facing stiff Russian resistance — second and third layers of defenses.” Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER referred questions about the counteroffensive to the Ukrainian military, but noted that “it has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.”

Well, somebody needs to give US MSM and many Pentagon officials a basic course in military history and a brief review of operations as reflected in Russia's field manuals and operational documents, the ones which are available to public. It might help, including the understanding of why all those Air-Land Battle(s) by Pentagon are fiction and exercise in operational and strategic wet-dreaming.  

I also have news for Politico and their "journos", when they report this:

Ukrainian forces are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the U.S. Army’s M1 Abrams main battle tank, which is expected as soon as early September and will help punch through Russia’s defensive lines. But as the operation grinds on, DOD officials expect the counteroffensive will last at least through the fall and possibly into the winter.

Shh, don't tell anybody, but Russians are also eagerly awaiting the appearance of the US Army's M1 Abrams MBTs and have been quite disappointed when learned that those Abrams will arrive without advanced electronics and active defense. I know, I know--they need another excuse the moment those M1s will begin to burn after meeting T-90M, PTRK Kornet or Krasnopol smart munition, or those nasty Mi-28s and Ka-52s, and that is when this excuse will be used: you see, we sent them inferior models. This is how the excuse will sound, word for word. But give British the credit where the credit is due--they first developed and procured (in Ukraine) completely Stealth MBT Challenger. It is so stealthy in visual diapason that no one have seen it on the battlefield so far. They are there, but not visible. That's what I am talking about--technology of the future. 

But when Politico publishes that:

Ukraine’s plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy. A Russian assassination would deprive Ukraine’s war effort of one of its most valuable assets.

Ze, run, run like hell, because THEY, not Russians, will kill you and throw your body away as a used condom, if your body will be found at all. Run, run... to Russia--the only place where there is no death penalty, so far, and where you have all chances to stay alive and even have three square hot meals (wait, does evening tea count as a meal?) and Russian prisons are great places for beating drug addictions--doesn't matter if you are a murderer, a serial rapist or, like in your case--war criminal. Run Ze, run! You are a used condom and Globalists need a martyr. No, not Greta Thunberg, but you fit all criteria perfectly. Do you want to die for 404 "Democracy"?

Well, It Is The Daily Beast...

 ... after all. In general, very few normal people work in Western media and especially ones which are tabloids. Most Western MSM today are tabloids. Larry takes a note. 

And the Western media train ride to crazy town continues to hurtle down the tracks and does not realize the bridge over the River Dnieper has vanished. That is the best poetic imagery I could conjure up tonight to try to capture that pathology of so-called journalists to publish nonsense. A new meme emerged today — the Wagner Group is being wiped out.  

He then proceeds to show some real facts on the ground and that tells us everything we need to know about Western media--people with skills and ethics need not apply. 

I also speak a little bit today about the travails of West's economics (or whatever passes for it) and warfare field. 

I am on record--most of the world-view forming, primarily humanities, academic field in the combined West is an academic fraud. The model as a whole sucks across the board. And naturally, when subjected to a real test by reality it crumbles. Now imbeciles from NYT worry about this:

A Hit French Novel Tries to Explain Putin. Too Well, Some Critics Say.

Two things come to mind:

1. French writing about Putin and Russia, LOL.

2. The success has illustrated the continued power of literature in France, where novels have long shaped public debate. Élisabeth Borne, the prime minister, said through a spokesman that she “really enjoyed his book, which mixes fiction and reality and echoes international current events and the war in Ukraine.”

LOL))) French already made a choice and it is a mix "of fiction and reality". Well, fiction primarily. Why don't French "public debate" shape itself on the issues of what used to be Europe and Western Civilization. But I doubt France will ever wake up for that--too late. 

Hypersonic Ad Nauseam On Thanksgiving.

There is some constant media "movement" and hassle around the US program of development of hypersonic weapons, which even a few short years ago, especially before March 2018, very many in the US in general, and Pentagon in particular, counted as a gimmick and boutique weapon systems. Boy, did they miscalculate. Now, suddenly, the United States are into hypersonics big time primarily into what could be defined as medium-range glide body for CPS (Conventional Prompt Strike). 

CPS is a conventional, boost-glide hypersonic weapon system. The CPS all-up-round missile includes a two-stage solid rocket motor booster and a Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) containing a kinetic-energy-projectile warhead. The Navy intends to launch CPS from Zumwalt-class surface combatants and Virginia-class submarines to attack high-value and time-sensitive targets. The Army plans to employ the same all-up-round from mobile land-based launchers as part of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (Dark Eagle) program.

In some sense, it is a very American program since it revolves primarily around hitting fixed targets with the stand-off weapon, with it being hypersonic serving this "promptness" of which we all hear since the inception in early 2000s (W's Administration) and then de facto abandonment of the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) program, and relying on the enemy possessing no response and defense capabilities. This whole "Prompt Strike" thing, in other words, has been around in different iterations for at least 20 years with... nothing to show up for it with the exception, and you have guessed it, a lot of media noise. 

It warrants comparison with Russian program of hypersonic weapons all of which have been in serial production and deployed and even used in combat by the first line combat units. It is clear that the United States is nowhere near to fielding anything comparable to Avangard or 3M22 Zircon. I do not see anything comparable for years and, naturally, the only segment in which the US has any chance is that of weapon system being developed within the framework of CPS--a roughly 3,000 kilometer range glide body. And here where it all starts to get very confusing for many. US media constantly report on some minor developments of these weapons. But, as the US Navy reports three weeks ago:

ARLINGTON, Va. — The head of the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Systems Programs office is confident the service can field hypersonic weapons on a Zumwalt-class destroyer in 2025 and on a Virginia-class submarine in 2029 despite the significant workload that remains. Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe said “time is not our friend” as the Navy races to finish hypersonic missile development alongside the Army by 2023. Next up is designing and testing the integration between the missile and USS Zumwalt’s hull and combat system ahead of a 2025 shipyard period where the weapon will be backfit onto the large destroyer. In parallel, engineers must work through the physics of launching the weapon from under the sea ahead of a 2029 fielding on Virginia-class submarines.

Well, it is understandable why Johnny Wolfe talks about time not being a friend of the program. But even the US Army "Dark Eagle" is not a weapon, at least not yet, despite the constant stream of reports around it. But in the October a more subdued reports started to appear:

AUSA 2022 — The US Army will have a “couple” of live fire flight tests this fiscal year for its hypersonic weapon  program as it works toward fielding the missile in the coming months, according to the three-star leading the effort. Lt. Gen. Rob Rasch, director of the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, said today the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon program is still on track to field to units by the end of fiscal 2023. Rasch said that the tests will “characterize” the glide body, the two-stage rocket motor and ground support equipment. Asked what would happen if the test fails, Rasch said the RCCTO team would “manage risk.” “If we have an anomaly and we don’t reach our … threshold, then we’ll sit down, analyze it and [talk] amongst the team and manage the risk as we go,” Rasch said during an event hosted by Defense News.

Exactly, as the Russian saying goes: don't say "hop" before you jump. Report continues:

FY23 is an important year for the Army’s modernization priorities, as the service plans to have 24 of of its 35 modernization either fielded or in prototyping. Asked if the service would be able to reach the goal, Army assistant secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology Doug Bush said he was “confident.” “We have a very well informed plan to do so,” Bush said. “Of course, there are risks. So one thing we do very well and we’re going into some test cycles on new equipment, just learn from the testing, adapt our plans, and then move from there. “So not everything is going to go perfectly, but that’s the point of doing the test.”

And here is the point of which we can now start talking confidently. As I write non-stop and ad nauseam--NO weapons system, even the most advanced exists in the technological and operational vacuum, the thing which Pentagon still didn't learn. Real integration comes with REAL, that is making operational sense and impact, integration of weapon system into the network of other weapons and systems which operate as unified organism. And here is the point: the United States now is involved in a life and death struggle with Russia, trying to preserve its increasingly untenable (and grossly exaggerated) status of a hegemon. But! But, if Russian hypersonic weapons created a revolution in military affairs, American ones will fail to do so. Here is an interesting explanation from Colonel (Ret.) Knutov, who today is a Director of Russia's Air Defense Forces museum. This is how he assesses the US program and the state of the affairs. 

                «Догонят» минимум через три года

Военный историк Юрий Кнутов в разговоре с iReactor оценил намерение Пентагона увеличить объемы исследований и темпы испытаний гиперзвукового оружия. По его словам, с учетом неудачных испытаний, которые США не раз проводили с целью создания гиперзвука, срок реализации военной программы составит не менее трех лет. «Американцы сейчас разрабатывают подобного рода системы, где-то в 2025-2027 году у них на вооружение должны поступить первые гиперзвуковые ракеты для подводных лодок и наземных систем», — отметил эксперт.

Юрий Кнутов отметил, что заявленная Пентагоном дальность стрельбы гиперзвуковых ракет составит около трех тысяч километров. При этом у российской армии уже есть то, что можно противопоставить в случае успеха США.

К примеру, система ПВО С-500 «Прометей», представляющая собой комплекс противоракетной обороны, которая была поставлена на вооружение в армию РФ еще в 2021 году. Радиус поражения С-500 составляет около 600 километров. Согласно заявленным характеристикам, она способна перехватывать в том числе гиперзвуковые и беспилотные летательные аппараты. Эксперт добавил, что Россия постоянно совершенствует те вооружения, которые есть, и продолжает разрабатывать новые. Поэтому Америке не удастся обогнать РФ. «Когда США разработают новые образцы вооружений, у России уже будет более совершенная технология. Поэтому отставание между Россией и Соединенными Штатами будет сохраняться на уровне 5-7 лет», — резюмировал Юрий Кнутов.

Translation: They will "catch up" in minimum three years. Military historian Yuri Knutov, in a conversation with iReactor, assessed the Pentagon's intention to increase the volume of research and the pace of testing of hypersonic weapons. According to him, taking into account the unsuccessful tests that the United States has repeatedly conducted in order to create hypersonics, the implementation period of the military program will be at least three years. “The Americans are now developing systems of this kind, somewhere in 2025-2027 they should receive the first hypersonic missiles for submarines and ground systems,” the expert noted. Yuri Knutov noted that the range of hypersonic missiles declared by the Pentagon will be about three thousand kilometers. At the same time, the Russian army already has something that can be countered if the United States succeeds. For example, the S-500 Prometheus air defense system, which is an anti-missile defense system that was put into service with the Russian army back in 2021. The radius of destruction of the S-500 is about 600 kilometers. According to the declared characteristics, it is capable of intercepting, among other things, hypersonic and unmanned aerial vehicles. The expert added that Russia is constantly improving the existing weapons and continues to develop new ones. Therefore, America will not be able to overtake the Russian Federation. “When the United States develops new types of weapons, Russia will already have more advanced technology. Therefore, the lag between Russia and the United States will remain at the level of 5-7 years,” summed up Yuri Knutov.

The "catch up" is in quotation marks deliberately, because as Knutov (and many other serious specialists in the filed, not least the President of Russia himself) note for years--the lag of 5-7 years which will be permanent (why, is a separate issue) will constantly mean not only better and generation ahead weapons, but systems of countering of appearing US weapons as a systems of previous generations. 

As with the Sputnik moment in 1957, after the US trying to demonstrate that it too has a viable space program, which it did have, initial problems with US satellites, such as Flopnik, Kaputnik or Jalopnik, among many other humiliating titles for Vanguard TV 3, lead to a reasonable call from all sides to "either put up, or shut up". We are living in the same paradigm today in regards to warfare. Comparisons are not only warranted, they are irresistible. For more than two decades the United States was trying to present the world with a new word in weapons. In these 20+ years the US didn't produce a single workable hypersonic weapon, while Russia produced an astonishing variety and, most importantly, weapons to counter weapon systems which the United States... doesn't have. Thus the lag becomes chronic and the gap unbridgeable, especially against the upcoming of increased range Zircons and a variety of M=9+ anti-shipping and land-attack missiles designed to be carried by all kinds of combat aircraft. 

Considering already existing and rapidly increasing gap in anti-missile and anti-air systems between Russia and the US, one can easily see how the balance of power shifts dramatically. In fact, have you heard much about US Navy's aircraft carriers lately? 

The USS Gerald R. Ford, and the strike group bearing its name, are set to return home to Naval Station Norfolk on Saturday. The Navy’s newest and largest aircraft carrier deployed for the first time on Oct. 4. The warship is the first of a new generation. “I am honored to welcome the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group home from their inaugural deployment in the Atlantic, where they strengthened relationships with Allies and partners, exercised combined capabilities and demonstrated our commitment in the Atlantic,” said Vice Adm. Dan Dwyer, commander of the U.S. 2nd Fleet and Joint Force Command, Norfolk. “This deployment brought together an incredible group of Allies and partners with one single focus — to contribute to a peaceful, stable, and conflict-free Atlantic region through our combined naval power. Opportunities to interoperate and integrate make our nations, our navies, and the NATO Alliance stronger.” The Ford sailed more than 9,200 miles in the Atlantic, alongside ships from Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Finland and Sweden.

Well,  remaining in the Atlantic, with occasional visits to UK, is the fate of the US carrier-centric navy in coming decades, because venturing any closer to Europe, let alone into Mediterranean is not a good idea in case of, God forbids, serious war. These are strategic shifts which happen in a front of our eyes and it is a pathway to the new world in which there is very little place for modern West which now has no resources to re-assert itself. Moreover, it is not the West anymore. Meanwhile in 404:

The executive committee of Odessa city council has supported an initiative to dismantle a monument to Russian empress Catherine II, commonly known as Catherine the Great, who founded the city. “Members of the executive committee supported the draft decision on the dismantling and transfer of the monument to the Founders of Odessa,” the Odessa City Council wrote on their official Telegram channel on Thursday. The initiative will now be put to a vote by the city deputies on November 30, after which the monument may be moved from Ekaterininskaya Square to a proposed “park of Imperial and Soviet past.”

Recognize the pattern? Meanwhile for those in the US, Happy Thanksgiving, and that the world hasn't been thrown into the global thermonuclear war--it is an ample reason for being thankful.

Larry Notes...

... that even the Sky News cannot hide this anymore. 80% losses of VSU formations, well, no Western establishment media outlet is still ready to talk in full about the truth. But Larry gives them (and neocons) a hint:

If you can imagine losing 80% of the 82nd Airborne or 80% of Delta Force, then you can understand the horrible significance of these losses for Ukraine’s ability to field a competent fighting force. Reinforcing depleted units with untrained men is not a solution. Plugging untrained war bodies into formerly elite units does not translate into a force capable of fighting effectively. The art of unit war includes knowing how to maneuver under fire, how to set ambushes, how to establish fields of fires, how to communicate with headquarters and how to clean and maintain weapons in the midst of combat. Ukrainian men press ganged into the Ukrainian Army during the past 10 weeks cannot be trained in such a short period of time to master these skills.

Some die hard neo-cons continue to manifest their ignorance of military affairs by pointing to Russia’s slow progress in taking Severodonetsk as evidence of Russia’s incompetent, weak army. What they fail to understand is that Russia was trying to avoid killing the civilians still inside Severodonetsk, who were being used as human shields by the Ukrainians. Putin and the Russian commanders are placing a higher value on saving civilians rather than unleashing their full military might in order to show the world what they can really do. This is a remarkably mature military strategy.

And here is the issue. While waiting today for urgent root canal appointment (it turned out to be root canal, not extraction as I initially wanted) I hung around Barnes & Noble and while trying to sip on my medium-rare (I mean, not hot) latte I went for the Air Forces magazine. 

It was May issue. Good God, people. Never in my life did I come across allegedly "professional" or, as they love to claim "officially number one authority in the world on aviation", publication filled with so much pure BS (how about their claim of the failure of RuAF EW?) and unsubstantiated claims, at least they admitted that "the ghost of Kiev" was an 'urban legend", that one can immediately conclude that those "professionals" are nothing more than amateurs who never encountered real air war and REAL SEAD operations against capable air defense. In other words, all they were writing was a feeble attempt at controlling a narrative. Of course, it is all based on their own "understanding" of "serious" air operations and, of course, Kiev propaganda and "leaks", because no one in Russia would allow those losers nowhere near operations of RuAF. 

I wanted to buy this magazine (only $14) but then decided not to waste my hard earned buck on something which cannot be even used as a reserve toilet paper in the hour of need, which is coming, since the damn thing is glossy and is so full of pseudo-"analytical" BS, that one has to be aware of possibility of getting penetrated by serious butt-hurt in case of using this publication in the toilet after "the business", if you know what I mean. This brings us to an utter failure in general of even "professional" tech and forces publications in the West and them being reduced to nothing more than military porn equivalents of the glamour magazines such as Vogue or, in the best case, Country Living. Same goes for those numerous "analytical" military porn web-sites which love to claim to have an understanding of operations, but most of them being nothing more than propaganda. 

In related news, I WILL watch the new Top Gun, once I gather enough spiritual strength to last through it, because the concept of F-14 fighting with Su-57 is down right bizarre. 

And lively "discussions" of all kinds of fanboys and military "experts" from mama's basement on the "tactics" of that is rather hilarious. But then again, I read today the magazine and learned that effectively grounded and suppressed within first 2-3 weeks of the SMO Ukie Air Force managed to mount "a resistance". Yes, by means of flying random sorties one can count on the fingers of one hand and because Russia's EW and ECM "failed". My tooth hurts like hell after root canal today, but at least the nerve is gone, judging by the Air Forces publication, my tooth ache is nothing compared to Air Forces severe and increasing butt-hurt. Worst of all, one cannot remove the dying nerve from down there and, as I am on record, reality, like gravity, is a bitch and when it bites... I would rather stick to root canal procedures and "Top Gun Maverick". 

Inception.

In Christopher Nolan's outstanding 2010 flick Inception, main protagonist, Dom Cobb, played ably by undeniably talented Leo DiCaprio, was using the so called totem, to have an idea if he was dreaming or was inside reality. If the totem toppled--Cobb wasn't dreaming. 

Totem was this Ariadne's thread allowing not to lose connection to the reality even in the dream. You may ask why I am waxing here Siskel-Ebertish in mostly geopolitical and military blog? The answer is simple: I allow myself once in a while go to Foreign Affairs publication by the Council on Foreign Relations site to get a gander on the state of America's allegedly most super-pooper, most sophisticated and most powerful minds behind what passes in the US as a foreign policy. Needless to say, that in the last few years those visits are increasingly rare, not least because I cannot tolerate American political "scientists" pseudo-intellectual newspeak--same phenomenon as economic lingo which is a newspeak covering the nature of the institutionalized robbery which passes in US as "economy" (see Michael Hudson's writing on this issue), plus, as I already stated not for once (hey, forget about me, many people stated this, such as Daniel Larison yesterday) I am not interested in wasting my time explaining a systemic delusion which is being presented as a viable "science". But today I ran into Richard Haas' (CFR's biggest honcho) piece about.... blah-blah-blah, yada-yada-yada accelerating something something history, something something to look intellectual and profound  etc. It is not profound, because Haas obviously doesn't know the real history of the 20th century and he is both energy, military and economy blind, using Arthur Berman's definition, but then something caught my eye and I took a screen shot:

Forget Haas' bloviation about WWII or WWI--drawing (pseudo)historic parallels is a fool's errand, not to speak of the fact that actual history of interwar period, not to speak of the realities of WWII is generally beyond the grasp (or is not allowed to be properly exercised in analysis) of US foreign policy "elite", most of which knows "strategy" and warfare from a white board abstracts in their Ph.D theses written away from warfare realities, any warfare. But it was so symbolic to see to the right of the Haas' "text" an image of what in Inception was Cobb's only connection to the reality--a rotating totem. Even in the closing moment of Nolan's masterpiece we are not given direct answer to the state Cobb and his reunification with his children are--is it still a dream or is he finally able to hug his children in a real world? 

I am on the record that far from experiencing any real respect to US foreign affairs establishment, I seriously think that these people live in a dream, in which the modern United States still can be compared to an industrial colossus, unscathed by horrors of 20th Century wars, which is capable (or at least it thinks so) to guide the world to a better future, dispatching its "finest fighting force in history" to remote shores and that it is just the matter of "selling" (that means outright lying) US foreign policy to Americans. Obviously Haas, being preoccupied with geopolitical and pseudo historic "profundities" doesn't use a single number to grasp a reality that the United States in China and Russia alone look at combined GDP and military capability which dwarfs that of the United States (Europe is not even an asset in all that) and is completely capable to deny the US access to Eurasia other than the US being incorporated as one among big equals into the new world order. But for Haas and CFR to really grasp the reality, albeit even he admits that the business is usual is pretty much over, he must wind the totem at the image to the right of his article and wait until it ether topples over, thus indicating the state of residing in reality, or will continue to rotate, indicating the most likely outcome of still dreaming, or residing in the dream in which cause and effect are not connected. But then again, ignoring causality is what makes the present state of the United States and her "elites", who should know better, but don't, so precarious. But I am sure we all know what it is to know about "exceptionalism" and how it destroys the nation which refuses to take a look at the rotating totem.          

Another One .

You know that I am on record, in fact I am explicitly on record, forcefully and with emphasis, that  US "Russia Study" field from the very political top, up to a level of POTUS, to the very bottom of a food chain populated with graduates of all kinds of useless programs and pseudo-sciences who do "research" on Russia by communicating with Russia's cultural, political and ideological rabidly pro-Western fringes because it is the only environment where these pseudo-scholars and allegedly "intelligence" people can get what they WANT to hear, not what is needed to be heard, is a wasteland. In general, American field on Russia is populated with people who literally have no clue. Such as Thomas Graham from Yale and from good ol' Henry Kissinger snake oil org dealing in BS in allegedly "geopolitics", business and other useless consulting. 

I never hid the fact that US skills in foreign policy in general, and towards Russia in particular, are those of the third world nation and I know many third world nations whose diplomatic and analytical skills are still better. I pointed out not for once, and I am writing the third book on this issue, that US problem, far from being ignorant of the outside world, is, in fact rooted in a complete lack of self-awareness by US political class which exists primarily in an echo-chamber of shoddy "scholarship", mediocre thinkers, if that, and in an absence of a reliable understanding of real power. They simply have no method, period. The reason they don't have this method is because they place money at the center of any "analysis" without understanding of how real economies work and because of a rather weak grasp of the actual history. In general, as I stated not for once, it is next to impossible to explain humanities-"educated" (Graham has BA in "Russian Studies" and Ph.D in Political "Science", which means he wasted years studying BS) product of US Ivy League humanities madras how Russia really works, starting from economy to military, to political culture. Being a product of US "political culture", that is to say show-business, Graham wrote a piece two day ago which is very US political class, obsessed only with own appearances, symptomatic.  

                           Oil Crisis Tests Putin’s Skill to Project Strength

Projection of whatever sells as an illusion of competence, power and electability is, actually, a very American thing. In fact, it is the foundation of the election theater known as American "democracy". This is not to say that Putin doesn't "project", he surely does, but this projection is nowhere near in its falsity, superficiality and staging than it is the case with now running non-stop US election-campaigns. In this case Graham exhibits a very American political idiosyncrasy which puts forward appearances not the content. He surely confirms this immediately:

NEW YORK: Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to yield under pressure. That is a matter of pride for Putin himself and a key aspect of his appeal to Russian elites and the public alike. The trick is preserving that reputation in the real world, where leaders routinely miscalculate and pivot while remaining loathe to admitting mistakes. The plunge in oil prices because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts provide the most recent test.

Graham is butt-hurting and it shines through his traditional for US policy-making craft, and resorting to a traditional making shit up, which one would expect from a middle-level former bureaucrat in W. Administration well-known for fvcking it up majorly both for the world and the US. Graham lies, of course, because increase (and, most importantly, dynamics) of Russia's gold and currency reserves clearly indicated in Bank of Russia statistics, that Russia was in reserves' mobilization mode well before any actions at Vienna's OPEC meeting in March this year. 

One can easily go to the site of Bank of Russia and apply filter say from April 2015 through April 2020 to see a dramatic growth of reserves, such as three fold growth of gold reserves alone. For Graham, obviously, it is not of any value since he doesn't understand the state of mind of majority of Russians who DO understand that they are in the existential struggle with the combined West led by the United States and the only thing Putin MUST project is a commitment to finish this fight. Russia was mobilizing for this fight since Munich Speech in 2007. Well, Graham, being a manager of Kissinger's org, should read his own boss' admission in 2015 where good ol' Henry stated (or accidentally dropped) the truth which majority of Russians (no, not the Russians Graham knows) are keenly aware of:

"Kissinger: If we treat Russia seriously as a great power, we need at an early stage to determine whether their concerns can be reconciled with our necessities. We should explore the possibilities of a status of nonmilitary grouping on the territory between Russia and the existing frontiers of NATO. The West hesitates to take on the economic recovery of Greece; it’s surely not going to take on Ukraine as a unilateral project. So one should at least examine the possibility of some cooperation between the West and Russia in a militarily nonaligned Ukraine. The Ukraine crisis is turning into a tragedy because it is confusing the long-range interests of global order with the immediate need of restoring Ukrainian identity. I favor an independent Ukraine in its existing borders. I have advocated it from the start of the post-Soviet period. When you read now that Muslim units are fighting on behalf of Ukraine, then the sense of proportion has been lost.

Heilbrunn: That’s a disaster, obviously.

Kissinger: To me, yes. It means that breaking Russia has become an objective; the long-range purpose should be to integrate it."

I will omit here Kissinger's complete lack of any foresight in regards to "integration", but Graham surely knows that there are no any altruistic intentions of the West towards Russia. Russians, being people well-conditioned by real wars, of which Graham has no real knowledge, exist in a different political and cultural reality to which US "methodology", fraudulent as it is, does not apply in principle. It is a complete different cultural and geopolitical thinking reality. The only people who do have at least some connection to this Russian reality are those from actual military and intelligence community who have to deal with tangibles, which, as it turned out, US political class ignores due to inability to understand them.  As a result Graham arrives to this:

But Moscow did not anticipate the Saudi reaction to its refusal to agree to further cuts. The Saudis’ threat to open the spigot and offer steep discounts on their oil exports pushed oil prices down to lows not seen in decades. The price war had begun, even if only the Saudis were prosecuting it robustly: The Saudis had the capacity to add 2.5 million barrels a day, the Russians, 300,000. True to form, Moscow was defiant. Despite Russia’s dependence on oil for two-thirds of its export earnings and 40 percent of its budget revenue, the Ministry of Finance announced that Russia could withstand prices as low as $25 a barrel for up to ten years. It would draw on its $150 billion National Wealth Fund to cover gaps in the budget, currently based on an oil price of $42 a barrel. That was certainly an exaggeration, and the Russian oil industry itself would suffer significant damage in the short term if wells had to be capped. Still, the ministry sent the unequivocal message that Moscow would not back down.

Ah, no. It was anticipated, because unlike W. Administration of which Graham was a part of, such as "planning" some shit, I guess how to lose the war and bankrupt the United States in the process, Russia (Putin) operates on a completely different plane of a strategic planning and as the track record of the US and Russia in the last 10 years are compared, well let's speak in broadsides here, US "record" is that of a dysfunctional country incapable to even govern itself, let alone achieve any tangible political objectives abroad. Simple as that. What Russia may not have anticipated (and even that is a question) was an unfolding of Covid-19, but that is the whole other story altogether. Moreover, as latest data from bank of Russia shows in terms of drawing on Russia's gold-currency reserves, Russia, indeed, can sustain this oil war for many years. So, why Graham arrives to the conclusion that it is an "exaggeration" remains  mystery known only to "analysts" such as him and, as I already stated above, their abilities are centered mostly around handling appearances, aka PR, and not operating with actual data and facts on the ground. If that would have been otherwise we would have had by now a stream of the American first-rate geopolitical and strategic thought. Instead what we have is a feeble exercise in chimeras, simulacra and demagoguery ranging from Fukuyama and Brzezinski to even late Huntington's attempts to make sense of the unfolding world which American self-proclaimed "intellectual" class largely is utterly unprepared. Graham is not an exception. 

Here is a fact which Graham cannot face, that is why he continues to make shit up, when writing about oil wars:

US President Donald. Trump gave Putin the opening he sought. Trump initially greeted the price collapse as a “big tax cut,” but by the end of March, he changed his tune under pressure from the domestic oil sector. He set about trying to persuade the two strongmen he had cultivated since assuming office, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Putin, to agree to major production cuts.On March 31, Trump called Putin to discuss the novel coronavirus crisis and oil markets. Kremlin statements routinely note who initiates the call when Putin talks to foreign leaders, and the Kremlin readout makes it clear that Trump made the call – the inference was that Trump, not Putin, urgently needed relief from the price war and the pandemic.

This is a loaded (with utter butt-hurt) statement which reads like lament. For starters most countries, to the best of my knowledge, disclose on whose initiative phone calls are made between the heads of state. And, actually, if Mr. Graham would have followed events of the last couple of weeks he would have understood that it was and still is Trump who desperately needs anything, something which would save now wrecked US shale oil. There are NO inferences, there are only facts on the ground: Russia can ride this crisis out, the United States cannot and Texas Railroad Commission will meet on April 21 to discuss desperate cuts. Hey, don't look at me, just read the titles:

"If the Texas Railroad Commission does not regulate long term, we will disappear as an industry, like the coal industry," said Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, referring to the state agency that oversees oil and gas production. "The Commission really does not have any wiggle room to do nothing in the unprecedented, disastrous circumstances of today."

This was Russia's position from the get go and it was explicitly articulated by Putin on a number of occasions: Russia was ready to cut ONLY if the United States takes part in those cuts.  

Russia may be willing to reduce its oil production by as much as 1 million bpd, or a little under 10 percent of its March average but only if the United States joins the cuts, Bloomberg has reported citing sources it said were familiar with the dominant sentiment in the industry.

This was repeated so many times, on so many occasions, that I don't know how Graham has missed that. Moreover, Russia's main long term objective is to attach the United States to a newly emerging Cartel and to restrain US attempts to pull blanket on itself. Moreover, this whole event shows Russia's even bigger goal for setting up what was already dubbed as Yalta 2.0 where new world order would be formalized.  Today, against the background of mounting empirical evidence of the American collapse and departure as self-proclaimed hegemon, new arrangements between superpowers are an utter necessity. United States may continue with its incessant propaganda and pretense that it is what it thinks it is, but the era of the American "dominance" across the board is over, it was over for some time now. United States still remains a superpower, but it is a superpower among few others and the better this fact is internalized and more humble attitudes are developed before getting to the negotiating table, the better it will be for all parties involved, including the United States herself which is in dire need of putting its own house in order for a long time. But don't expect "expertise" from such people as Graham to be of any use for that, not only spinning, a euphemism for lying, is the only skill they have but the fact of being sore losers only compounds their inability to face reality.