Thursday, May 3, 2018

Ironic Smile.

And a face-palm to boot. US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman's recent statement in Vladivostok, I am sure, saw many smiling faces at the round-table he was speaking to. People were smiling (ironically) against the background of remote but recognizable thunderous Homeric laughter which was heard from huge open spaces and all nooks and crannies of Russia's 11 (or is it 10 now?) time zones.  In what can only be described as a bad joke, Huntsman stated that President Trump:

has said repeatedly that he wants a better relationship with Russia. Repeatedly. And he has said quite clearly that he would like to engage personally with President Putin. Every time I’ve met with President Trump or talked with him about this subject, many times now, he’s said the same thing. From day one ... I think my President is very sincere when he says that he wants a stable, predictable, manageable U.S.-Russia relationship. And I think President Putin would like the same thing.

Obviously, people are free to think and say whatever they want. I, for once, from day one was very sincere in my desire to become first a firefighter, then cosmonaut and then a manager of an electric power substation, but life influenced a minuscule insignificant, in a larger scheme of things, me in a very different way. All my sincerity went out of the window and I ended up receiving an equivalent of M.S. in naval engineering and B.S. in what is defined as military sciences. Oops. So much for me being "sincere" when pursuing my desires.  

President Trump is not a minuscule insignificant person--the opposite is true. By the virtue of the Office he occupies he is an extremely important person in a global sense. Yet, as none other than Machiavelli stated: "The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him."(c) Right. Do I have to continue form here? I will. I already elaborated on the fact that I don't buy anymore all this Trump is a hostage of the Deep State" narrative. Trump is not a hostage and, frankly, these almost two-year long "signaling" of desires to be for everything good and against everything bad in US-Russian relations are not borne out by reality. There is not a single fact which testifies to any desire to have any normal relations to Russia and the issue here is not that Trump doesn't want that. The issue here is HOW Trump wants these relations—he wants them on US conditions and that is not a "deal". It is the same good ol' exceptionalist diktat approach which led the world to the brink and US to an increasingly pronounced decline. This approach, obviously, is not going to work with Russia, it already didn't work, and even if Russians understand (they do) that Trump is driven by the politics of November 2018 mid-term elections, nobody in Russia (with exception of fanatic Russophobe liberals) gives a damn anymore about what White House thinks. A simple fact of the matter is that at this stage Russian-American relations are wrecked beyond any repair. Trump may want whatever he wants but US Establishment is unanimous in seeing Russia as the enemy number one and Russians also know this damn well.

In the end, Donald Trump sees Russia as merely a temporary disposable utility and he cannot see Russia otherwise, once one considers a full totality of "intelligence" on Russia which is being spread from the American very political top down to mere mortals. As Patrick Armstrong's yesterday's piece title correctly says:

           No, Your Intelligence Is Actually Bad. Very Bad

As you may all know, I wrote a whole book on how bad, in fact, atrocious this "intelligence" is. Also on how dangerous it is. And it is very dangerous, since yet another "Chemical Weapons" provocation is being readied in Syria (in Russian) and we may see, yet again, Trump's desires, as an example, to "withdraw" from Syria being dashed. I am not even sure he can predict himself, what I am sure, though, is that Mr. Bolton is in a good position to give some insane "advice" and, oh, the irony, we may again hope that the only adult in Trump's Administration, James "Mad Dog" Mattis will have enough power of persuasion to prevent a dangerous escalation which may lead to a catastrophic global consequences.

So, Mr. Huntsman may say whatever he wants but he cannot undo a massive damage which was dealt to a global strategic stability and Russian-American relations by this very same President who allegedly wants all those wonderful things with Russia. Nobody of any position of power wants anything positive with Russia in Washington D.C. And that is the reality of it, including the Machiavellian reality of Trump's Administration infested with Russophobes, American "exceptionalists" and neocons—a precise combination of ignoramuses which made modern United States not capable of any treaties or agreements, which are not worth the paper they are written on. 

It is a very sad state of the affairs and repeating diplomatic mantras will not help it. The worst part is that practically nobody in D.C. with the exception of some real military professional people in Pentagon and possibly few in the so called Intelligence Community understand that the only American "relations" with Russia possible at this current moment are those of negotiations about an American role in a new, very visible and tangible, world. But even this opportunity is being missed. What comes after that? If we avoid a global war, the most likely outcome will be the "signing" of the terms of capitulation by the US. I know it sounds humiliating and I personally don't like this outcome, so to avoid one it is either now, in the very nearest future, or… well.  The time of words has ended and the US has only itself to blame in this matter. If Donald Trump cannot do it, then what are his words or his Office worth?         


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