Wednesday, April 8, 2026

It Has Been Posted ...

 ... in comments, but it is worth repeating by Dmitry Medvedev. 

The U.S.–Iran conflict has been put on hold. Predictably, both sides are claiming victory. So who won? First of all, common sense did – though faith in it was badly shaken when the White House started talking about wiping out Iranian civilization in one day. Still, the very fact that Trump agreed to discuss the 10-point plan is a win for the Iranians. The question is whether Washington will accept it, since it includes, among other things, compensation for the damage inflicted on Iran, the continuation of its nuclear program, and Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. The answer is clearly no. That would be humiliating and would amount to a real victory for the Islamic Republic. So what then? Back to war?

That’s possible. But there is also another option. Trump neither wants nor can sustain a long war, and he won’t find support in Congress for one, either. This means he must maintain the fragile ceasefire and pretend that everything is fine. Because every step on this board pushes the situation closer to zugzwang. But this is a game of chess with three players, not two: there’s also Israel, which is not playing on the U.S. side. It has no use for a ceasefire, and it has not achieved its objectives. It could very well make its own move: simply sweep all the pieces off the board. That makes the situation highly uncertain. Which also means the pigheaded European Russophobes will have to live in austerity mode for a long time. Because there is no cheap oil in sight…

Highlighted is the crux of the matter. I want to remind you:

A particular strategic policy must be devised for every war; each war is a special case, which requires its own particular logic, rather than any kind of stereotype or pattern, no matter how splendid it may be. The more our theory encompasses the entire content of modern war, the quicker it will assist us in analyzing a given situation. A narrow doctrine would probably confuse us more than guide us.

That's Svechin. The US "strategic policy", strategy and operational art is the always the same--launch whatever you have in stand-off weaponry (long range fires) and see what, like that proverbial substance, sticks. Svechin continues:

The first duty of the art of politics with respect to strategy is to formulate the political goal of a war. Any goal should be strictly coordinated with the resources available to achieve it. The political goal should be appropriate to one’s war-waging capabilities. To meet this requirement, a politician must have a correct conception of the relations of friendly to hostile forces, which requires extremely mature and profound judgment; a knowledge of the history, politics and statistics of both hostile states; and a certain amount of competence in basic military matters. The final statement of the goal would be made by the politician after an appropriate exchange of views with strategists, and it should help rather than hinder strategic decisions. 

As you might expect, it is not a secret, American politicians do not know what resources are, how they affect operational issues and, of course, average American politician thinks that he (she) is the brightest, most powerful and knowledgeable strategist because he (she) graduated Harvard or similar degree mill's political science or law school, while denying the same to their opponents. The fact that most people in US decision circle are highly uncultured, primitive uneducated hacks who know only apparatus games and staying elected (or appointed) doesn't occur to them. 

Rephrasing old military truism that "while amateurs discuss tactics, professionals discuss logistics", while amateurs discuss capitalization and stocks, professionals discuss tons, units, kilowatt-hours and correlation of forces and means (COFM). So, Medvedev is spot on here and if hostilities resume (it may happen), they will resume with Iran dominating the battlefield even more and being able to inflict much more pain on the US and that chihuahua in Levant which without its nukes and American welfare is a third rate power. 

This guy, however, was pushed to sue for ceasefire by his Israeli masters because neither could take it anymore. So, will wait and see what comes out of it in the long run. 

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