Saturday, July 6, 2024

Once In A While...

 ... I like to pat myself on the back. Here is down the memory lane. My strategic-operational predictions which today in 2024 all came true. 

1) The United States military in future conflicts will have to deal, in the case of conventional conflict against a near-peer, let alone peer, with an adversary who will have C4ISR capability either approaching that or on par with that of the US. This adversary will have the ability to counter US military decision cycles (OODA loop) with equal frequency and will be able to produce better tactical, operational and strategic decisions.
2) US real and perceived advantage in electronic means of warfare (EW) will be greatly reduced or completely suppressed by present and future EW means of the adversary thus forcing US forces to fight under the conditions of partial or complete electronic blindness and with partially or completely suppressed communications and computer networks.
3) The US will encounter combat technologies not only on par but often better designed and used, from armor to artillery, to hypersonic anti-shipping missiles, than anything the US military has ever encountered.
4) Modern air-forces and complex advanced air defense systems will make the main pillar of US military power—its Air Force—much less effective.
5) Today the US military will have to deal with the grim reality of its staging areas, rear supply facilities and lines of communications being the target of massive salvos of long-range high subsonic, supersonic and hyper-sonic missiles. The US military has never encountered such a paradigm in its history. Moreover, already today, the US lower 48 is not immune from a conventional massive missile strike. 

So, boy, was I correct, right? 

French cautiously allowed for such a possibility...

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