This Is Gold.

And the sax, man, the sax))) 

For those who don't know. This IS NOT a direct parody on The Mamas and The Papas original, it is on no less stunning cover of this immortal tune by Beach Boys.

No Shit, Pardon My French.

If this psycho acknowledges it, then something is afoot:

US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are having second thoughts about providing Ukraine with various types of aid amid its conflict with Russia, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland acknowledged on Monday. Speaking during a panel discussion hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, Nuland was asked to comment on the political split in Washington regarding support for Kiev. The State Department official attempted to downplay friction on the matter, noting that the US “has contributed more than $30 billion to the security, economic prosperity, and humanitarian situation in Ukraine.” “You can’t do that without overwhelming support of both parties in the Congress,” she added.

You have to almost pity them--meaning neocons--right now. Can you imagine their feelings right now? They had a perfect "plan", just plan, no A,B,C..., and then, from the git go this plan started to go haywire the minute they started implementing it. It went wrong immediately. Recall immortal Russian classic:

It was not Napoleon alone who had experienced that nightmare feeling of the mighty arm being stricken powerless, but all the generals and soldiers of his army whether they had taken part in the battle or not, after all their experience of previous battles—when after one tenth of such efforts the enemy had fled—experienced a similar feeling of terror before an enemy who, after losing HALF his men, stood as threateningly at the end as at the beginning of the battle. The moral force of the attacking French army was exhausted. Not that sort of victory which is defined by the capture of pieces of material fastened to sticks, called standards, and of the ground on which the troops had stood and were standing, but a moral victory that convinces the enemy of the moral superiority of his opponent and of his own impotence was gained by the Russians at Borodinó. The French invaders, like an infuriated animal that has in its onslaught received a mortal wound, felt that they were perishing, but could not stop, any more than the Russian army, weaker by one half, could help swerving. By impetus gained, the French army was still able to roll forward to Moscow, but there, without further effort on the part of the Russians, it had to perish, bleeding from the mortal wound it had received at Borodinó. The direct consequence of the battle of Borodinó was Napoleon’s senseless flight from Moscow, his retreat along the old Smolénsk road, the destruction of the invading army of five hundred thousand men, and the downfall of Napoleonic France, on which at Borodinó for the first time the hand of an opponent of stronger spirit had been laid.

You think those who concocted this "plan" in the US read this? No, for any crook from within the Beltway it is an excruciating torture to study real history of Russia, because the very existence of Russian people and their country, which, time after time, destroyed enemies much more powerful and skilled than pathetic excuse for "strategists" in Washington, contradicts every single belief those war criminals and white board amateurs profess. We all live today through classic Russian grand battle, be that Borodino, Stalingrad, Kursk or Berlin--it is about annihilation. Tolstoy again:

And it is well for a people who do not—as the French did in 1813—salute according to all the rules of art, and, presenting the hilt of their rapier gracefully and politely, hand it to their magnanimous conqueror, but at the moment of trial, without asking what rules others have adopted in similar cases, simply and easily pick up the first cudgel that comes to hand and strike with it till the feeling of resentment and revenge in their soul yields to a feeling of contempt and compassion.   

They only now begin to suspect that they are being looked at with contempt. As a result, today Vladimir Putin signed the law on suspension of the START from 2010. 

With it, the US loses any kind of access to Russia's nuclear weapons facilities, where weapon systems are created which are generations ahead of what is being planned and developed in the US. I am on record: the US lost the arms race and the scale--most likely mind-boggling--of this loss is yet to be fully revealed. In related news, Richard Haas who passes in the US for a thinker, continues to live in alternative reality:

Putin now finds himself playing for time. Unable to defeat Ukraine’s military, he is attacking economic and civilian targets, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. He may also believe that, despite what Western leaders say, it is only a matter of time before European governments, along with the US, rethink the costs of supporting Ukraine. 

I am on record--you cannot educate US "diplomat" and "strategist" in anything, they do not receive proper education in the colleges. By education I mean not degrees but actual knowledge, ability to learn and knowing own limitations. But even this pseudo-intellectual (primarily through incompetent use of big words: strategy, costs, national interests et al), after fluffy operational-strategic BS, admits that there are doubts. Sure. Let them doubt--an entirely new feeling for arrogant, uncultured and ignorant pseudo-professionals within US "academe" and "elites".

Garland, Scott And Me...

 ... discussing things today. Like, 10 minutes ago. 

Enjoy, if you will.

50 Times! Pepe Escobar In Moscow.

I expand here a little bit on the Moscow-Beijing axis, but not before reviewing what Sergei Chemezov and Rostec have in store for friends and enemies alike. 

Meanwhile, Pepe, who is in Moscow now, wrote an excellent piece for the Saker Blog. 

Whatever happens next geopolitically, Russia is at heart a – giant – obstacle on the warmongering path of the Hegemon: the ultimate target is top “threat” China. Putin’s ability to size up our extremely delicate geopolitical moment – via a dose of highly concentrated, undiluted realism – is something to behold. And then Foreign Minister Lavrov provided the sweet cherry on top, calling the hapless US ambassador for a hardcore dress down: oh yeah, this is war, hybrid and otherwise, and your NATO mercenaries as well as your junk hardware are legitimate targets. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, now more than ever relishing his “unplugged” status, made it all very clear: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.” And the message is even more acute because it represents the – public – cue to the Chinese leadership at the Zhongnahhai to understand: whatever happens next, this is the Kremlin’s unmovable official position.

The stage is, indeed, set, but one thing has to be understood--I repeat it non-stop for the last several years--and Vladimir Mozhegov explains it well today (In Russian): 

Russia is different and last Europe.

And she is not saving the previous one. Rightly so. The one which may (may, as in if) come instead of current cloaca--we will cross this bridge when we get to it.

Larry On Bakhmut (Artemovsk)...

Yesterday a good sitrep from Larry with, finally, proper map with the scale. 

Larry asks the question:

Is Russia Closing the Cauldron Around Bakhmut?

This morning we have the answer--yes. Morning reports tell already about tactical, not just operational, envelopment of Bakhmut and trapping there by unreliable 404 sources of 2,500 VSU (primarily from Western Ukraine (in Russian)), by other, much more reliable sources (I know them personally), of about at least 3-4 times this number. Also, officially is reported that the number of bodies of VSU littering the battlefields around Bakhmut is simply appalling and Wagner Group formed special teams for removing those corpses in order to prevent further decomposition and smell with the risk of infections. 

But by far more important news is this bit of CIA Director Burns complaining that:

Burns said on CBS that the meeting with Naryshkin was “pretty dispiriting,” describing the Russian as “defiant” and displaying “cockiness.” “There was a very defiant attitude on the part of Mr. Naryshkin,” Burns said. “A sense of cockiness and hubris, in sense reflecting Putin’s own view … that he can make time work for him, that he believes he can grind down Ukrainians, that he can wear down our European allies, that political fatigue will eventually set in.”

Somebody has to explain to Burns that he should be grateful that Naryshkin agreed to meet him at all, especially on the BS occasion of the US "warning" Russia against the use of... nuclear weapons. Naryshkin's attitude is indicative not just of Putin but of the fact that Russian military-political elite views, absolutely correctly, present US Administration as a collection of amateurs, ideologues and fanatics. Burns, who is a classic modern US "diplomat", meaning ignorant, uncultured and a political appointee, as a current Director of CIA should learn things other than how to conduct PR BS and study Russian military doctrine and, surprise-surprise, the actual state of the affairs in the United States. 

But then again, anyone who agreed to serve in Biden's Admin should be automatically disqualified as professional and a person with integrity. Burns' tenure as US Ambassador to Russia didn't contribute to his education in the matter. Per military part--most people within the Beltway are clueless in such matters and Burns is an Exhibit A of this. In other words, Naryshkin, when speaking to Burns, was talking to an amateur who wouldn't know shit from shineola and there is no other way anymore to talk to Biden Admin's people. In related news, another train in the US has derailed today. Is anyone in Biden's cabinet minding the country which literally tears at the seams?

It Is Happening In Education!

And people are elated.

ЯЛТА /Республика Крым/, 25 февраля. /ТАСС/. Российское образование после отказа от Болонской системы будет опираться на все лучшее, что есть в его традициях, в том числе советские стандарты, сообщил журналистам в субботу первый заместитель руководителя администрации президента РФ Сергей Кириенко на педагогической дискуссии "Год педагога и наставника глазами педагога". "То, что российская система образования имеет столетние уникальные традиции, которыми мы по праву можем гордиться, и мы не имеем право потерять это наследие, должны его бережно использовать, в том числе и наследие советской школы, которая по праву считалось одной из лучших в мире. Не случайно. Вы слышали в послании во вторник на этой неделе президент [РФ Владимир Путин] говорил об отказе от Болонской системы и во многом о возвращении к советскому стандарту, который был и в системе высшего образования и среднего образования. <…> Поэтому опираться на все лучшее, что есть в российской, советской школе, кстати, во всей мировой школе, - это, конечно, абсолютно правильно", - сказал Кириенко.

Translation: YALTA /Republic of Crimea/, 25 February. /TASS/. Russian education after the abandonment of the Bologna system will rely on all the best that is in its traditions, including Soviet standards, Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, told reporters on Saturday at a pedagogical discussion "The Year of the Teacher and Mentor through the Eyes of a Teacher." "The fact that the Russian education system has centuries-old unique traditions that we can rightly be proud of, and we have no right to lose this heritage, we must carefully use it, including the legacy of the Soviet school, which was rightfully considered one of the best in the world "Not by chance. You heard in a message on Tuesday this week the President [of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin] spoke about the rejection of the Bologna system and in many respects about returning to the Soviet standard, which was also in the system of higher education and secondary education. <...> Therefore, rely to all the best that is in the Russian, Soviet schools, by the way, in the entire world school - this, of course, is absolutely correct," Kiriyenko said.

Remarkably, if there is an Exhibit A of an immense power of the Soviet educational system, it is Sergei Kiriyenko himself . A man of many real talents, he wouldn't be where he is today if not for fundamental education he received in public school and a shipbuilding faculty of the Nizhny Novgorod Water Transport Institute. Yes, He is an engineer by education. Russia is undergoing a profound, healthy and much needed rotation of the "elites". I can tell you one thing for sure--people in Russia who developed RosAtom, MC-21 and created hypersonic weapons among many other things, they sure as hell never attended any fashionable Western university or VShE. In general--any degree mill granting useless B.A.s and B.S.s in "economics" or "climate sciences".

Academics? Really?

I will soon begin to stutter from repeating a diagnosis--Western "leaders" and their "academe" are capable only of PR, period. They do not have real skills, knowledge or foresight. Now these "academics" are discovering what was told by many people with just common sense, forget about those, like Mr. Novak, who have serious experience and academic background in real things. 

Russia raked in significantly more money from its crude oil sales than previously thought, a group of academics have said. Russia took in more money in the weeks that followed the oil price cap implemented on December 5 last year, calculations from academics at the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California show. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to the paper “Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network.

For people whose skills do not reach beyond the realm of financial speculation at the Wall Street such a development may come as a surprise. A nasty one at that. You can download this paper here. 

Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports

It is a peculiar paper with the set of "recommendations" of what Larry calls "more cowbell". Same ol', same ol'--more sanctions, more restrictions and even lower cap. They DO grow them dumb in "academic" economics realm in the West. Suffice it to say that 99% of Western economics "oracles" predictions about Russia turned out to be utterly delusional. You cannot fix stupid. 

Daniel Davies, meanwhile, warns.

While it’s no secret that since 2013 I’ve argued – many times (including last month in these pages) – we place too much trust on our generals and turn too blind of an eye when they are proven disastrously wrong. With statements and claims made by a number of retired general officers leading up to Friday’s one-year mark in Russia’s war with Ukraine, however, it is more urgent than ever that the American public take what they say with more than a little skepticism. If our policymakers take the advice of these former high-ranking officers, America may find itself at war with Russia, shocked by a Ukrainian loss – or worst of all: sucked into a nuclear exchange with Russia.

Most American retired generals have been proven disastrously wrong most of the time because they do not know what modern war is and, also, because they never won shit in their lives. Come on, when you apply for credit card, let alone for mortgage, the first thing one checks is your credit history, and this is the right thing to do. What IS credit history of America's top brass since Vietnam? Larry summarized it very well in his latest: 

America’s Delusional Military Fantasy

Somebody needs to explain to Petraeus and Keane and the whole cabal of other political generals from US think tanks that military "history" they studied is not exactly a real one. But then again, with such an "academe" who would blame them for having learned nothing about real war. Or real economy, for that matter.

Plastinkin Brothers. Friday.

I used to know Oleg, Igor's brother, and I still have some of his recordings very few people have, both covers and originals, such as his mind-boggling Do-Re-Mi-Do-Re-Do. They are two guitar virtuosos and, arguably, best blues guitar players in Russia. They are also prolific composers. Here is Igor showing what guitar playing is:

Enjoy.

Per Chinese "Plan".

I want to stress that this "plan" is a classic exercise in ambiguity--aka for everything good, against everything bad--which is exactly what is needed for Russia at this time. Generalities and obfuscations. That is why Moscow favorably met those "proposals". 

МОСКВА, 24 фев — РИА Новости. Москва высоко ценит искреннее стремление китайских друзей внести вклад в урегулирование конфликта на Украине мирным путем, сообщается на сайте Министерства иностранных дел России."Разделяем соображения Пекина. Привержены принципам соблюдения Устава ООН, норм международного права, в том числе гуманитарного, неделимости безопасности, согласно которому безопасность одной страны не должна укрепляться в ущерб безопасности другой, что применимо и к безопасности отдельных групп стран", — говорится в заявлении.

Translation: MOSCOW, February 24 - RIA Novosti. Moscow highly appreciates the sincere desire of Chinese friends to contribute to the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine by peaceful means, according to the website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "We share Beijing's views. We are committed to the principles of observing the UN Charter, the norms of international law, including humanitarian law, the indivisibility of security, according to which the security of one country should not be strengthened at the expense of the security of another, which is also applicable to the security of certain groups of countries," the statement says.

 

Moscow is totally for diplomatic peaceful solution... based on her "proposals" from December 2021. Russia has some excellent international law lawyers, plus, everybody in Russia knows this Ostap Bender's phrase from immortal 12 Chairs by Ilf and Petrov. And no less immortal original movie by Leonid Gaidai.

 

Dialogue: 

Official,

-So, you wanna say that this is your boy?

Bender,

-A boy. Those who want to say that he is a girl, let them first cast the stone. 

 

You see, Moscow also can play dumb, while being very shrewd. Nuland and her neocon cabal who pretend that they know Russia, should have studied modern Russian culture (XX-XXI centuries) more thoroughly. But then again, don't hold you breath.

Andrei Raevsky...

 ... sadly, closes off The Saker with his comments. Watch. 

Thank you, Andrei. Hope you will reconsider at some point of time.
 

Open Thread.

 I am busy today. Go at it.

Nice Try, Plus Larry On China And Russia.

It is turning into a complete circus:

President Joe Biden told ABC News anchor David Muir in a new interview that it was a "big mistake" for Russian President Vladimir Putin to temporarily suspend Russia's participation in the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries. "It's a big mistake to do that. Not very responsible. But I don't read into that that he's thinking of using nuclear weapons or anything like that," Biden told Muir in Poland on Wednesday, before the president flew back to Washington. Biden said he was "not sure what else he [Putin] was able to say in his speech at the moment, but I think it's a mistake and I'm confident we'll be able to work it out."

Hey, somebody voted for this guy. I, sure as hell, didn't. Good luck with "working this out", I am sure they will come up with a new definition of nuclear weapons, and of "working out" for a good measure, same way as they redefined recession. 

In related news, Larry penned an excellent piece on why Comrade Xi is going to Moscow. 

The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Moscow this week was not a coincidence. It had at least three goals — to demonstrate China’s support for Russia on the anniversary of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, to further progress on the creation of an alternative international financial system not beholden to Washington and, I believe, to kick off the negotiations for a mutual defense pact. In addition to meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Wang Yi met with Patrushev, the head of Russia’s Security Council. In the world of international diplomacy, the Foreign Minister has the task of working out details and producing the documents that would codify a defense relationship. It also is not a coincidence that Putin announced at the end of the “productive” meeting with Wan Yi that Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China, would visit Russia in the near future, possibly in March. Xi Jinping is not going to Russia to sight see or swig vodka.

Is the announcement of the Russian-Chinese pact possible when Xi arrives to Moscow? Absolutely, I agree with Larry here fully. Will it happen? We'll see. Plus, Mr. Ryabkov flatly denied a BS from Sabrina Singh about "failed test" of Sarmat (in Russian). This is how desperate they are, they lie non-stop. 

An Excellent Point.

And the angle. While scrolling through the comments to my latest video today,

I stumbled on a succinct commentary by one of the viewers:

Why would Germany commit suicide for, at best, sketchy LNG at 5x the price? The only answer is, Biden guaranteed that Russia would collapse under sanctions and the plunder would go to the west. "Join us and you'll be controlling Russian Resources! "

The depth and implications of this commentary are much larger than may seem at first. Yet, it is a very good explanation of Germany's economic suicide, which goes extremely well with this "piece". Andrew Cockburn, decrying the failure of sanctions,

We were promised ‘economic shock and awe’ against Russia. But one year after its brutal invasion of Ukraine, Moscow looks poised to weather the worst of Western sanctions.

posits:

The fundamental miscalculation underlying this apparently unforeseen failure of the economic weapon parallels the record of another instrument of coercion cherished by the U.S. over the course of the last century. Strategic bombing targeted against “critical nodes” of an opponent’s war-making apparatus has, like its economic counterpart, singularly failed to achieve its desired objectives, most recently in the “targeted killing” campaign against the Taliban’s human infrastructure. Both strategies rest on a mechanistic view of the targeted system in which components deemed essential to its functions can be identified and destroyed. Taliban and similar insurgent operations always adapted speedily to the loss of supposedly key individuals. Just as Hitler’s Germany did to U.S. bombing of “critical” ball bearing factories, so Putin’s Russia has adapted to Singh’s confident assault. It has become clear that he or whoever planned the sanctions strategy didn’t really understand the Russian economy very well, especially its place in the global system.

I have news for Cockburn--there ARE NO people in all of the US military-political establishment today who can really understand not only Russia, but the world outside the Beltway. Moreover, they, as I am on record, top-bottom, cannot do strategy, because they lack in fundamentals. Read my lips--US "machine" of elites' manufacturing is utterly broken, because the way those "elites" are educated is a complete utter academic fraud based on, at best, shaky assumptions, at worst--on a radical rewriting of history. It is the house of cards and we see it in the process of collapse upon encounter with reality and the winds of history. Germany? Hey, it was Germany's choice.

Larry, Michael Vlahos At Gonzalo's

Roundtable, discussing Putin's Address.

Enjoy.
 

Do Not Miss This...

While the whole (Western) world discusses "dying" and "stricken by cancer" and "dementia" Putin who looks mighty healthy and as sharp as ever, some very important messages shouldn't be missed. Of course, Russia suspending her START participation and getting ready for physical testing of nukes, once the US, inevitably, will also abrogate the ban on tests of nuclear weapons, are of immense import. This rings especially true in a view of the United States de facto losing strategic arms race to Russia. It is all very important, of course. But the same as was the case with Admiral Rickover who warned that Soviet Union's main weapon was system of public education, which already in the late 1950s made US education public school system look like a backwater, Putin's words yesterday in his Address to Federal Assembly have been finally spoken!

Первое – вернуться к традиционной для нашей страны базовойподготовке специалистов с высшим образованием.Срок обучения может составить от четырёх до шести лет. При этом даже в рамках одной специальности и одного вуза могут бытьпредложены программы, разные по срокуподготовки, в зависимости от конкретной профессии, отрасли и запроса рынка труда. Второе – если профессия требует дополнительной подготовки, узкой специализации, то в этом случае молодой человек сможет продолжить образование в магистратуре или ординатуре. Третье – в отдельный уровень профессиональногообразования будет выделена аспирантура, задача которой – готовить кадры для научной и преподавательской деятельности. 

Translation: The first is to return to the traditional for our country basic training of specialists with higher education. The term of study can be from four to six years. At the same time, even within the same specialty and one university, programs can be offered that differ in terms of training, depending on the specific profession, industry and labor market demand. Secondly, if the profession requires additional training, narrow specialization, then in this case the young person will be able to continue his education in a magistracy or residency. Thirdly, postgraduate studies will be allocated as a separate level of professional education, the task of which is to train personnel for scientific and teaching activities.

Finally! I am on record for many years--the Bologna Process, all those undergraduate and graduate "degrees" are crap, and often do not provide necessary professional competencies for a whole range of serious industrial and hi-tech professions. The title of specialist is a key in this classic Soviet education which finally returns. There is a reason Russia's military higher education largely retained old academic criteria by preparing SPECIALISTS, not some "graduates" with "majoring" in something. As an example, after full 5 calendar, 6 academic years we all graduated from naval academy with the title of Specialists. Nobody is interested in a Bachelor of Arts in... communications, as an example, on the position of a modern motor rifle platoon commander, CO of Combat Department on the ship or submarine, because modern military, modern industry, modern economy requires an extremely focused professional preparation in higher education, instead of somebody who just has some kind of degree. 

This is a strategic decision and I applaud it. I knew it was coming, because Bologna System is largely a fraud and provides an extremely low level of education and professional development. It is time for it to be removed and this decision has been made for Russia. I will talk about the rest of the Address later. But this was a huge development in itself, not to mention a proper reorientation of humanities field in both lower and higher education to traditional values, true humanism and tradition. Returning to START, judging by the news of a large modernization on the Novaya Zemlya testing range which was in progress for the last couple years, it is clear that Moscow knew about US intentions to resume nuclear testing and simply is getting ready once the US detonates the physical nuke. 

And then, of course, is this. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal claimed on Tuesday. Reports of the trip come as Beijing looks to take a leading role in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The visit will take place sometime in April or early May, the American newspaper said, citing “people familiar with the plan.” The sources claimed that Xi will use the summit with Putin to push for multiparty peace talks aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine. Successive rounds of peace talks failed last year, with Kiev abruptly withdrawing from negotiations in Istanbul in April. Russian officials and others elsewhere have claimed that Western powers pressured Ukraine into abandoning the talks, despite an agreement being close at hand.

For the imbeciles from WSJ I repeat, again, the simple fact--Beijing CAN NOT take any leading role in 404 for a simple reason of Beijing's long term security being ensured by Russia through the means of demilitarization of NATO and its big honcho--the US. Comrade Xi will be in Moscow not for promoting a "peace plan" or pushing anything. We are talking here about a completely different dynamics which is beyond the grasp of WSJ "sources" and analysts, who, as you may have guessed it, have been dumbed down through Bologna Process in the US Ivy League journo and communications departments. Ah, yes, in "the coming months" 404 will shrink even more. This is your primer on Putin's Address. 

P.S. The US now is "ready to talk" about START, that is what the representative of National Security Council told CNN. No shit, geniuses--back to school and learn real diplomacy, balance of power and warfare. Don't hold your breath though, they will fail, as usual.       

My Talking Head.

In a series (planned) of videos on the 1st "anniversary" of SMO. 

Enjoy, if you will. BTW, for anyone who wonders what Pareto Distribution is, here it is:

The Pareto distribution has major implications in our society. Consider its original use case, describing the distribution of wealth across individuals in a society. The vast majority of the world’s citizens are clustered at a low level of wealth, while a small percentage of the population controls the vast majority of all wealth. Policymakers may not realize that wealth is distributed according to a Pareto distribution rather than a normal distribution, and this gap in understanding could lead to suboptimal policy decisions in countries around the world. Perhaps equally profound is the ability to model productivity according to a Pareto distribution (while productivity and wealth are both distributed in the same manner, their correlation at the level of individuals is a matter of dispute and varies by context). In most professions it is hard to precisely quantify a worker’s productivity, but Major League Baseball (MLB) teams are experts in exactly this exercise. Using the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric as an estimate of a player’s value, we can see that MLB players are able to produce wins for their team in a Pareto-distributed fashion. It is amazing that even among the best 1,500 baseball players in the world, they are still distributed in this extreme way.

In the same manner--Markov Chain:

A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.

All is directly related to military planning and more... Fade into darkness with this:

Wink, wink;)

Open Thread.

 Go at it.

Bernhard Gives... So Does Brian.

 ... a good retrospective of the run-up to the events of February 2022 and commencement of SMO. Highly recommended. 

The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Saturday, February 19, 2022

A must read, actually. Enjoy at MoA blog. Typical Bernhard--meticulous and detailed.  

Also, Brian's always excellent summary: 

The first "anniversary" of SMO is coming in 4 days and it is a good time to make some intermediate summaries. In related news, Sasha Rogers in his classic acerbic, sardonic really, manner explains (sadly, only in Russian) to all "armchair strategists" those "teeny-weeny" issues related to real statesmanship--unknown subject in the combined West--and guiding a monstrous ship of state such as Russia, especially through SMO.

As If...

... it hasn't been known. It was the same "secret" as Annalena's "knowledge" of geometry and geography. 

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his associates spent almost two months in a bunker after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, instead of the planned two weeks, and underwent significant hardships, The Times has reported. The Ukrainian government “immediately” descended into a secure shelter under the president’s office on Bankovaya Street in central Kiev when Russia’s military operation was launched on February 24, 2022, the British newspaper reported on Saturday. The secrecy around the bunker was so high that those who accompanied the head of state underground had to sign a special non-disclosure agreement. According to the document, they were banned from revealing any details about the shelter’s design, location, amenities, or even the food that they were given.

There is no bunker which Mr. Kinzhal (Dagger) cannot penetrate and it is merely by volition of the Kremlin that Mr. Ze is still around. In the end he will "disappear" into one of the NATO countries or will be offed by his bodyguards from SAS or whoever else have their hands up his ass, when ordering him around.  

Obviously, explaining to imbecile Lindsey Graham that China wants "to jump on Putin's train" is an exercise in futility:

Sen. Lindsey Graham on Sunday said China would be making a colossal blunder if it decides to provide lethal aid to Russia for its war with Ukraine. “If you jump on the Putin train, you’re dumber than dirt,” the South Carolina Republican said of China in an interview with Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “This Week.” 

But this piece by this psychopath is telling, and it demonstrates a complete nasty surprise for the worldview of most in Washington D.C. who wouldn't know shit from shineola in matters of geopolitical balance and correlation of forces, military as well as economic, in the world. I will only reiterate my point here which I make for years: China is a junior geopolitical partner in Moscow-Beijing axis, because survival of China depends on what Moscow is doing in 404 against whole of the combined West. 

Washington still wants VSU to go on "counter-offensive". Sure, it is like me wanting to have a multi-million dollar super-yacht. I have a desire, but zero resources to buy and maintain one. Simple as that. But I wrote a whole book, remember, on how one calculates and views resources for real war and why combined West lost this competition. This was 4 years ago:

As recent events have shown, I was largely correct when assessing the lack of the resources of the combined West to fight a real war and it had very little to do with simple lack of desire to conduct a proper, as stipulated by NATO's aggressive doctrine, defense policies but because of a complete exhaustion of the Empire. I am on record, people in Russia's General Staff can calculate, and they do it really well. Evidently, this is not the case with Pentagon and a cabal of fraudulent sinecures aka think-tanks. Here is Times:

Less than quarter of pledged tanks to arrive for Ukraine spring offensive. Germany urges allies to speed up delivery of Leopard 2s. 

You see. Not to mention the fact that even under the best of circumstances, the 404 "spring offensive" will likely look like a series of sporadic divergent--why, is a separate issue needing elaboration--attacks locally, because, evidently NATO's operational staffs which "plan" this shit for remnants of VSU dis not study military history of WW II and have a very vague understanding of real "offensives", since "offensive" against backward and largely defenseless Saddam's Army and offensive against something like the force under Mainstein and Model--different experiences and math. In fact, irreconcilable on a fundamental military science level.  

Russia, meanwhile, ramps up military production across the board, including production of hypersonic weapons (in Russian), but it is confirmed now that upcoming frigates of modernized Gorshkov-class (pr. 22350M) will have in their arsenals newest AD missiles integrated with powerful Polyment-Redut and their range will be 400 km (in Russian). That automatically translates to Admiral Nakhimov undergoing modernization--reportedly it also carries both navalized S-400 and Polyment-Redut--and, eventually, to many other ships' classes. The transitional enlarged frigate Admiral Amelko is being completed as I type this and is due for commission the next year. Plus, the news of Komsomolsk-on-Amur shipyard getting ready to launch the serial production of pr. 22350(M) strictly for Pacific Fleet is an extremely important piece of news, same as announcement yesterday from UAC ramping up the production of helicopters to 300 annually. Well, how many washing machines in Russia have been cannibalized... This is you Sunday primer.

Friday, Tolstoy, Tanks And Shit...

Thanks to our very own s marsh who unearthed this wonderful tour de force by Leo Tolstoy's great grandson who tore a new one to a collection of French media combat chihuahuas. Enjoy this:

You see, they cannot conceive that they are being outclassed everywhere, literally, from diplomacy, to culture to intelligence, to military, economy et al. Poor, poor dears.

Here is me speaking tanks.
 

And here is angelic Lucy Thomas making late Whitney's hit her own. 

Enjoy, it is Friday...

Me On RT Crosstalk Yesterday.

Discussing you all know what. 

Now Russia Is Surely Finished...

Talk about sanctions from hell. 

EU renewing ban on sales of toilets to Russia on war anniversary

Russian producers of toilets are walking to the bank laughing with evil laughter. 

 

I Talk To Ania...

 ... and something else:

This "something else" is, thanks to Saker's Blog discussing it today, about the fact that they cannot do strategy inside the Beltway and I am talking top-bottom, Pentagon including, not to speak of think-tanks such as RAND. One can build a cottage industry based just on debunking RAND's BS and exposing their incompetence. Enter Foreign Affairs rag. These people have been very busy as of lately discussing things they have no clue about--e.g. United States doesn't have diplomacy in any operational sense, among many other things--related to SMO and Russia. Here is one such Exhibit: 

What Russia Got Wrong. Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures in Ukraine?

As I stated, thank to Saker's blog I stumbled on this "jewel" of a "strategic (lack thereof) thought" from Dara Massicot who, if to believe a very limited info on her background, is: 

DARA MASSICOT is a Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND, she served as a senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense.  

And here I have to immediately point out the issue I am dealing with for the last almost decade and a half, and that is that neither Pentagon nor the so called US "intel community" have any clue about Russian military capabilities because they don't have proper academic framework economically, militarily, historically and politically because of the scandalously low intellectual level of US "elites". Dara Massicot, considering the paucity of info on her, could have been a spook or simply yet another "product" of the US "strategic studies" degree mills for good ol' boys and girls, who in either case wouldn't last academically a semester in any serious military academy in Russia. Consider also aggravating factor of a Russia Study field in the US being a playground of academic frauds, primitive ideologies and all kinds of former Soviet citizenry selling themselves as "experts" while having no clue about the subject. E.g. former English Language teacher with not even DSP clearance in Russia/USSR "consulting" US on Russia's "strategic culture". 

The record of shysters from USSR/Russia selling BS to rather uncultured US "elites" on Russia is long--from notorious Golitsyn who damaged CIA profoundly, to no less notorious Bezmenov who packaged well known open facts into "intel" and sold it to US media, to, of course, Solzhenitsyn with his fiction on just about anything to, already mentioned, "expert" in Russia's "strategic culture" Koffler. So, to expect that some gal from RAND, who wouldn't know the difference between the doctrine and strategy and how many parts the latter is subdivided into, and what it all means, is down right risible and Massicot doesn't disappoint with confirmation of what I wrote three books about and am writing fourth one--they cannot do strategy in Washington D.C. They also cannot fight the modern war and they do not understand, in the nation subverted by ethnic and religious lobbies, from Israel to Saudi Arabia, and Qatar with Ukraine, what national interest is and how it is formulated. 

Massicot immediately goes for the jugular of a remaining credibility she might have had and states:

Why Russia did not prevail—why it was instead stopped in its tracks, routed outside major cities, and put on the defensive—has become one of the most important questions in both U.S. foreign policy and international security more broadly. The answer has many components. The excessive internal secrecy gave troops and commanders little time to prepare, leading to heavy losses. Russia created an invasion plan that was riddled with faulty assumptions, arbitrary political guidance, and planning errors that departed from key Russian military principles.  

Well, Massicot who, obviously, never attended any serious military institution and has zero serious military background, doesn't understand the process of serious strategic and operational planning by such institutions as Russian General Staff, and she never heard of a development of decision tree, which manifests itself in such thing as contingency planning. I will omit here the issue of Markov Processes and how they apply in modern operational and strategic planning, but Massicot, of course, parades her ignorance here by presenting her personal (that is serving only narrative) preferences as strategic wisdoms. They are not, this is the writing of the amateur who doesn't understand what Russia is and how she fights. Not to mention the fact, that she simply lies, especially about Russian losses or Russian intentions. It is natural for a "senior analyst of Russian military capabilities" from organization which loses all of its wars since Korea. She should simply go back to Washington Post's famed Afghanistan Papers and relearn how Pentagon "fights", primarily in media field. 

But she doesn't stay there, she develops another thesis, which shows both a serious butthurt and lack of knowledge of Russian military culture:

Yet in January 2023, Surovikin was demoted in favor of General Valeriy Gerasimov. Although the reasons for this command change are unclear, palace intrigue and cronyism may be behind it rather than any specific failure of Surovikin’s leadership. And no Russian commander has been able to break Ukraine’s will to fight even though Russia continues to launch missiles that inflict suffering on the Ukrainian people. But the bombings and entrenchment may well degrade Ukraine’s capacity, making it harder for the country to reclaim more of its land.    

The reason she writes this sophomoric BS straight out of the Ukie propaganda, about Surovikin being "demoted", is because she doesn't understand what coordination is and why, the Red Army was using throughout WW II the "institute" of Representatives of STAVKA at the fronts, who, like Zhukov and Vasilevsky, at different times either coordinated or directly commanded several fronts (army groups). She, obviously, never heard about it, because she doesn't know that Russian General Staff IS the main organ of combat control (Главный Орган Боевого Управления) of ALL Russia's Armed Forces ranging from ground forces to strategic nuclear ones, to navy and the list goes on, and on, and on. The big honcho in all that is Valery Gerasimov, who, as a Chief of a General Staff, unlike Surovikin, who never was "demoted", has supervision of everything, and Russia is playing here for much more than Ukraine. But, evidently, this former Pentagon's and present RAND's "analyst" doesn't read what is openly available in Russian media and not a secret since the inception. Here is me from BEFORE February 24. 

1. Q: Do Russians know who people in D.C. are? 

A: Yes, they do, in fact, I think they know it better than people in D.C. themselves. 

2. Q: Did Russia issue ultimatum to NATO in hope of a compromise? 

A: NO! The reason Russia issued this ultimatum was to publicly frame what will happen after the expected "maneuvering" by the US (I do not count Europe here at all--they are nobodies). 

3. Q: Do Russians have a military contingency plan in case (highly probable, but not fully guaranteed) the US throwing the tantrum and "refusing" this ultimatum? 

A: Yes. As Bismark is known to say: even when going to toilet for number 2 Russian makes a plan(c). Not arguably, but historically--Russian General Staff is the best planner not just militarily but across the whole spectrum of national security and national interests issue. Nobody comes even close. 

Russia DOES have all military-technological, economic and political  means to stop NATO expansion, NATO's desires notwithstanding--simple as that. I write about the widening technological and operational gap for many years now. 

You see? I warned. Nobody heeded, least of all all those Russia "experts" (most of them frauds) in the US. In the end, after reading this sophomoric BS from Massicot, she has to contend with the fact of the US military technology failing dismally in Ukraine, moreover, with the fact that the fields of strategic planning, strategic intelligence, TOE of the US Armed Forces, doctrine, strategic studies, national defense policy, procurement policy are a complete wasteland of academic and intellectual fraud which cannot hide anymore Western military impotence against serious military power, let alone military power such as Russia who exposed Western military impotence for the whole world to see. Massicot's sophomoric propaganda in the CFR's rag is one of the many signs of a systemic crisis of the combined West, who in desperate attempts to save the face, is also desperately trying to re-frame BS narrative, with some therapeutic BS added to the new one, by means of constructing the alternative reality. This is the only thing they are capable of doing.

Ben Wallace...

 ... you gotta love this. If I would have been a Sandhurst leadership, I would have died from embarrassment, but then again--British military is the same thing nowadays as British "scientists", or, for that matter, British space station. 

Russia has not been able to “punch through” Ukraine’s defences, despite almost all of its army deployed in the war. It comes as the Kremlin has intensified attacks across a swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, and a major new offensive has been widely anticipated. “That has come at a huge cost to the Russian army. We now estimate 97 per cent of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine,” Ben Wallace told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. Meanwhile, Russia claimed on Wednesday that they made a breakthrough in the eastern front of Luhansk.

Ben Wallace wouldn't be allowed to command a battalion in any serious army, but then again, modern British military and "intel" is a caricature and the only thing they have left at their disposal is dissemination of an utter operational and strategic BS. But then again, it looks like British and US top brass lacks basic education in operations and national defense strategies, and we can forgive them for exposing themselves as ignorant NCOs trying to compete with people from Russian military who are teaching those who want to learn how you fight a massive war in economy of force mode. Somebody should tell Wallace that PR and spewing BS is not a substitute for real knowledge and experience in modern large scale combined arms warfare in which British General Staff has zero experience, not to speak of Ben Wallace losing 97% of his professional honor by parading himself as a sore loser, who he is being in charge of the toy armed forces, and cannot take it. But that is a human virtue, or lack thereof, and no amount of lectures on Russia's defense policies and Russian way of war can change what UK lost long time ago across the board--class.      

My Talking Head...

 ... about simple arithmetic. 

One has to have numbers to do anything, and I am talking about tangibles, not zeroes denoting non-existent money in the computer.

Larry Explains Austin's And Milley's "Logic"...

I know, I am scratching my head still after trying to listen to these two. My BS meter, sadly, has a very low threshold settings. Larry did the job for all of us. Enjoy.

If you are still wondering why the United States failed to prevail in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially Afghanistan, all you need to do is watch today’s press conference of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, Belgium. What a veritable clown show! The remarks by Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley revealed two guys with an iron grip on delusion and a total lack of self-awareness. The audacity of these two failed military leaders to pretend they are qualified to offer advice to Ukraine on how to fight a first world military when their own dismal military records show they failed to defeat a bunch of goat herders and tribesmen that had no combat air, no helicopters and no artillery is the definition of chutzpah. It would be funny were it not for the slaughter underway in Ukraine.

It is not just gross, the incompetence is grotesque even if to assume that they know the score. If you are a good professional you at least can try to lie... professionally. But this... Read the whole thing at Larry's. 

NATO Wants...

 ... reportedly to fight two wars. 

NATO is set to adopt a guidance that lays out plans for a scenario in which member states find themselves fighting on the home front and beyond the borders of the alliance at the same time, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. This comes as the US increasingly shifts its priorities to confronting China. The classified document is to be discussed and signed off on by NATO defense ministers during a two-day summit in Brussels that starts on Tuesday, the news outlet reported. Members will be asked to prepare national plans for future military engagements. The guidance will map out ways for NATO to engage in a “high-intensity so-called Article 5 conflict” – defending a NATO nation attacked by a foreign party under the treaty’s mutual defense provision – and “an out-of-area, non-Article 5 event.” The contents of the guideline were revealed to Bloomberg by “people familiar with the matter.”

In related news--I want to fly as a bird and sing as Freddy Mercury (or Marc Martel). And why not? Nobody forbids us from wanting things. Those wants are called dreams. So, dream on me and NATO. But, as I discussed it today with James Kunstler and Thomas--Washington completely lost the ability to calculate anything, from economics to military operations. But a dramatic change of tone in Western media is telling.

Thomas Carrigan, James Kunstler and Me.

Today. Join in.  

About my book Losing and Disintegration and things of this nature.  

 

 

The Issue Of Scale.

 Mr. Stoltenberg is an exhibit A of why Western "economics" education is primarily a fraud. Don't look at me, an authority on economics orders of magnitude greater than me, Michael Hudson, also thinks so.

Ukraine is consuming an “enormous amount” of ammunition, and the West needs to boost production to keep up, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday. Stoltenberg also called on the bloc’s members to increase their intelligence efforts, accusing China and Russia of spying on them with balloons. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of ammunition,” he said ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. “This puts our defense industries under strain,” he continued, adding that “we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacities.” Stoltenberg then pledged, as he has repeatedly since Russia’s military operation in Ukraine began, that “NATO stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Remarkably, Jens Stoltenberg's thesis title (from Oslo University) was, drum roll: Makroøkonomisk planlegging under usikkerhet. En empirisk analyse ("Macroeconomic planning under uncertainty. An empirical analysis"). One cannot make this shit up even if one tries. So, this "economics" graduate wrote a thesis on something that cannot be accomplished in the modern West because "macroeconomic planning" and the modern West are irreconcilable things. SMO exposed all superficiality and chaos of West's economies dramatically. 

Remarkably, Stoltenberg, complaining about VSU using "enormous amount" of ammunition, forgets a simple fact of life that Russian Armed Forces use ORDER OF MAGNITUDE than whatever is left of VSU-NATO cabal more, and Russia is not just feeling fine, but dramatically expands the production of every single military materiel and technology she needs. That's real macroeconomic planning under uncertainty. But it is too late for Stoltenberg, and NATO in general, to learn now anything of substance about REAL war and REAL war economy. So, the only thing which is left is to spew propaganda which is increasingly detached, if not completely already, from economic and military realities on the ground. They DID miscalculate that badly, they ARE that ignorant--because the failure is systemic, across all institutions of the combined West, military included. 

Well, USA Today begins to suspect things:

'Little by little they are winning': Tide turns in key Ukraine city. Live updates as Russian offensive begins.

Western main-stream journalism is a combination of pathological lying and ignorance. Because what happens in effect now in 404 is not just "little by little" but a complete, industrial scale, annihilation of 404 and NATO's mobilization potentials. Will the West resort to the only thing it can do--terrorism? Possible. As US Embassy in Moscow urged US citizens to leave Russia, the chair of State Duma Committee On Investigation of Interference Into Internal Affair of Russia, Vasily Piskarev, citing SVR's data, explained that the US assets in Russia are getting ready to conduct terrorist actions (in Russian). Nothing new, really. Well, after NS2 terrorist act it is obvious that this is the extent of the current US military "capability" when dealing with serious adversaries. Could also be yet another primitive hack psyop against the background of obvious military-industrial failure. I warned about it for years--nobody listened. 

Meanwhile, Russia pushes ahead with completion of the newest plant for manufacturing satellites (including SMOTR class--part of SFERA program). Here is report in Russian. 

The plant, which goes into operation this year will be able to manufacture and test simultaneously 4 heavy satellites and 100 light ones. So, that adds to explanation of Musk's sudden "maneuvers" with Starlink.