Saturday, August 13, 2022

Is Viktor Orban Due To A "Democratic" Coup d'Etat?

Certainly looks like, because he seem to be not only successful in keeping Hungary warm and cozy, but also well fed and mentally normal. Recall my points about Hungary's position here and here

Russian energy giant Gazprom has increased gas supplies to Hungary via the TurkStream pipeline, a Hungarian official confirmed on Saturday. According to Foreign Ministry State Secretary Tamas Menczer, the Russian company stepped up flows to Hungary by 2.6 million cubic meters per day starting Friday and for the rest of August. The extra supplies are being delivered by the TurkStream pipeline that brings gas to Hungary via Serbia. “The Hungarian government had previously decided to purchase some 700 million cubic meters of natural gas in addition to the already contracted volumes,” the official posted in his Facebook account. Menczer added that the nation is currently in talks with Moscow about additional volumes for September. Hungary, which is about 85% dependent on Russian gas, is trying to bolster its reserves before the cold season. Budapest has been strongly opposing calls to introduce EU sanctions on Russian gas imports. The country’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has also managed to secure an exemption from the bloc’s sanctions on Russian crude oil imports. 

But, of course, we are not simpletons here and we understand that geopolitical significance of all that is much greater than any economic, however important, considerations. Are there forces in Hungary which work against Orban and his government? Absolutely! They are well financed by EU and its intel outlets and they cannot take it not only in geopolitical terms, but also because inevitably Hungary will make a good living as intermediary between those in EU who want to survive and Moscow. And I mean a good living. That hurts the most against the background of a complete economic and mental collapse of Europe and this is just the start. So, is Orban a visionary? In some sense he is. Consider the background:

I will lie if I say that my heart doesn't bleed for simple vulnerable people--it absolutely does--but we live in a real world and thousands of Russian civilians have been killed as a result of criminal policies of European and US governments. There is always a price to pay and seeing Hungary getting what she needs easily (as was predicted) from Russia is, today, tantamount to rubbing salt in the wound. Will they, US and EU, try a coup in Budapest? I am almost 100% positive that they will, especially come the Autumn and Winter, when the whole house of cards will implode. And yes, Russia is not taking this turbine back until it is proven that this turbine is not covered by sanctions, which, of course, it is. As they say--you reap what you sow, and that opens the perspective of Moscow doing something similar to Erdogan operation in 2016, when, rumor has it, he was saved by FSB (or G(R)U). 

But today, it is Hungary getting what she needs from a pivotal country in emerging Eurasian economic and military colossus, and this one is not on the legs of clay. But in the long run, because of proper diplomacy and constant communications with Moscow, Budapest may add territories to Hungary and Viktor Orban will stop being a popular leader, he will become Hungary's legend. Do you think Kremlin doesn't understand that? Of course it does. So does Orban whose bet increasingly looks less and less risky but more and more wise.

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