Excellent write-up which gets to the heart of the matter of Ukie sabotage and diversionary acts.
This is a major problem for Russia and, worse, this is a problem which will not go away anytime soon. The only thing Russians can do is to 1) prepare for a very long
counter-intelligence and counter-diversionary operations lasting many
years and 2) accept the reality of war for what it is and not freak out
the next time the Ukronazis blow up something, be it a ship, a train, an
aircraft, a bridge or any other target in the LDNR or Russia. The one good news the Russians also need to keep in mind is that most
of such diversionary/terrorist attacks are still fundamentally part of
PSYOPs and are mostly designed for PR effect. In terms of their actual
impact on Russian military capabilities, it is close to zero,
just like the Israeli strikes in Syria have made exactly *zero*
difference on the ground in Syria. To really affect military operations
you need to have a large, viable and sophisticated partisan/”stay
behind” force, which the Ukrainians do not have, not by a long margin.
Also, to really affect military operations, such diversionary tactics
need to be carefully coordinated with “regular” friendly military forces
(like the Soviet partisans during WWII who closely worked with the
Soviet armed forces).So yes, this is a problem, a very unpleasant one, one which
will be hard to deal with, but not one which will affect Russian
military operations. Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl
AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even
the war between Russia and the united West.
Read it in whole, which also, by implications, explains why I do not discuss the sinking of RKR Moskva.
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