Wednesday, July 6, 2022

I Will Be Very Brief.

Spanish newspaper Lavanguardia reports that the West will never supply Ukraine with US AD complexes Patriot "to not provoke Russia". For lay observer this rationale seems sound, but, of course, in the matters of politics in the West which is primarily smoke and mirrors and virtual reality, the main reason is completely different. It is here (in Russian) where Russian MoD demonstrates annihilation of the two launchers of the US supplied HIMARS and also a radar unit of one of the Ukie S-300. 

Patriot has a troubled history but apart from its "effectiveness" being questioned from the times of the First Gulf War, one inevitably is forced to recall a global FUBAR in Saudi Arabia in 2019. The failure against "home made" drones and missiles was so spectacular that one inevitably has to ask the question about how those Patriots will fare against a salvo of 3M14 Kalibr, let alone supersonic P-800 Onyx which also maneuvers if need be. You know the answer. Western weapon systems (together with its "operational art") have already sustained massive reputational losses--enough to recall barely 20% "effectiveness" of much touted wunderwaffe such as Switchblade or Javelins--so, nobody in the West needs a full demonstration by means of physical annihilation of Patriot PAC 3s, likely with NATO's personnel in them, by all kinds of Russian high precision stand-off weapons. And that IS the main reason why Patriots, at least for now, will not appear in Ukraine. Simple as that. So, no muddying waters and spin can hide now a systemic issue in not just tactical and operational, but doctrinal views of the combined West on modern warfare.

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