Read Real Experts.

Before flying out. The amount of BS and all those "military experts", such as Yuri Podolyaka spewing their strategic "wisdoms" from every corner (Podolyaka is not military expert, but Ukrainian "orange", first Maidan pusher), is staggering. Here is for your consideration opinions of the actual Russian General Staff officer-operator, Colonel Trukhan. In Russian (use google translate) under the title: We are not Americans. It is specifically about the objectives of war and how it is being prosecuted. It is prosecuted well  and as planned. 

I am on record--you can quote me on that--Western propaganda is good now only within the West. In terms of actual military literacy on any level, from tactical to strategic, not to speak of doctrinal and political, in the West when it relates to Russia... what can I say--it is pathetic. But then again, my, what amounted to trilogy, books are largely dedicated to this, even with introduction of basic minutiae of operations.  

Here is Chilean in Kiev who, certainly, has some ideas. Many of them correct:

In the US where military "expertise" is for a show primarily and long ago became a media product (shitty one at that), it is near impossible to explain how real wars are actually planned and fought and how forces are deployed. Too many computer games and "superficial" operational and strategy "engines", very little of understanding of how, as an example, Russians fight NOT on the tactical level. And even there, with some exceptions of US military history giants as David Glantz and Johnathan House, or some good work put into the explanations by such people like Lester Grau, US military "analysis", as many other things, is for show driven by the insatiable appetite for instant gratification, including creating own fictional wars and equally fictional ways of prosecuting them. We see this today on a full display. 

Recall, go back to the very beginning of this blog: information is NOT a knowledge, it becomes a knowledge after a very serious processing. The West long ago lost this ability (always lacking)--not surprising for a decision making circle dominated by political "scientists" and top brass completely detached from the realities of the 21st century warfare. But people want a show, they need instant gratification, and that is how Western propaganda machine is configured. In such configuration it can produce narratives only--observe what is said and shown and compare this with the progress of Russian and LDNR operation in Ukraine--the cognitive dissonance is inevitable.  So, here is colonel Trukhan for your pleasure. May be this will help to gain proper perspective.

Something Seemingly Irrelevant, But...

In reality directly connected--I am about 3M22 Zircon. Its official combat range has been revealed: the surface launched version of 3M22 has a range of 1,500 kilometers (in Russian). And while VSU destroys dozens of Russian armored columns, kills Chechens in thousands and shoots down tens upon tens of SU-35s and SU-57s, and while many US military "experts" parade themselves as amateurs who never learned the subject, Kharkov is taken and mopping up operations are in progress, Berdyansk is taken (see the map), a gigantic cauldron in Donbass is almost formed. But yes, rumors of Russia getting ready to surrender, Gerasimov is fired and Anglo-American "advisers" will get them the "plan"... Ah, wait, it is all for CNN and fakes. 

But reality is such that the real warfare, not some propaganda BS in public spaces (the only "warfare" the West is good at), aka psyops, changed so dramatically, that the only thing is left for the West is impose sanctions, which hurt the West more than Russia. Some people in the West know that but prefer to keep silent because most of the Western politics is conducted for the consumption of the brainwashed and uneducated public. Anything tangible in any field increasingly dissipates into the virtual reality and loses the property of being tangible. The only hope for Washington is to somehow "prolong" Russia's operation--this is the extent of strategic vision in D.C. But that is not how it works, they already saw how it works in Afghanistan, Vietnam, you name it--all those wars which the United States lost while remaining "the finest fighting force in history". They only think in cliches. An incredible paradox--the more you get your ass kicked, the more you humiliate your own country, the better you become at what you constantly fail at. An incredible "logic". But then again, I am on record for years--they don't learn. They need to constantly lie to themselves. And so they do. Details--later. 

About SWIFT and Russia's Central Bank.

Immediately what needs to be stressed: as was pointed out by many professionals and simple economic sense laymen, switching Russia off achieves absolutely nothing for Russia than mere inconvenience. For the West and especially the US--it is a further degradation of the US Dollar system. Same goes for attack on Russia's Central Bank reserves. Considering the level of hysteria and, frankly, lack of any intellect in Washington and London, one has to ask questions on how many feet combined West really does have to shoot itself with self-defeating "sanctions". No, this is not to say that they are complete 146% morons, since Anglo-American "elite" is highly selective in "sanctions" because it conspicuously doesn't want to impose them on energy. Anything but energy!

Well, I think--the factor they still cannot fully grasp--it is Russia who has a final word on that, because nationalization of British and US property and assets in Russia may follow, especially against the background of Russia's Central Bank statement that it has all resources necessary to support Russia's financial system (in Russian). In the end there is always an option of demanding Rubles as payment for energy. But in the end, anyone with IQ above room temperature thought that Russia's didn't prepare for this contingency. Come on. 

Under these circumstances what is left for Western media is to use pathos-ridden hyperbole and fluffy (and hysterical) rhetoric, not to mention spreading a full-blown BS regarding military operation in Ukraine. Well, that is why the West finds itself today where it is--one has to have OODA loop in order, especially first two "Os", but as I state non-stop, looking at the level of "competence" of the West, one should abandon any hope of getting touch with the reality. Military "analysis" in the West, especially by all those generals and other "experts" in the US MSM is preposterous. I will try to address the issue later, but, boy, don't they have self-respect? Evidently they don't and do operate with propaganda cliches only. This means not understanding fundamental issue of counterinsurgency in Ukraine and what Russia faces in this respect, the same as how she will handle it. They, certainly, have really big issues with grasping modern air-defense and how it is used and, in general, they are not that good as military professionals, of which I wrote earlier this months. In other words they lack understanding of modern battle space in the campaigns when one faces a fairly competent and not completely incompetent Iraqi military. They didn't get the message with "NATO trained" Georgia in 2008, now, I assume they are simply butt-hurt because this is the first modern war of the age and they can only envy. But we will get to purely military analysis and operational matters based on clear facts later, when the fog of war will clear somewhat. 

After humiliation of Afghanistan (and Iraq) and exposing its military impotence, NATO, as the living organism which has a slow poison introduced in it, will succumb to this poison and will die inevitably. Recall then title of my first book. For now, it seems, Kharkov is about to fall to Russian Army--yet another major (more than 1 million population) urban center which is about to be taken. Yes, I know, use the simple rule--the higher the pitch of hysteria and the larger are the numbers of Russian tanks, aircraft, personnel and satellites "destroyed" by VSU and reported in US MSM--the better is the progress of Russian and LDNR forces. I know, it is such a difficult thing to be the genuine article in life, but there is always PR and propaganda and US "experts" are good at it. Baghdad Bob syndrome on full display.

It Is Hot And Humid.

In San Juan and I am trying to stay on top of the events. It is not easy, considering the fact that since our arrival yesterday we were involved non-stop in pre-wedding proceedings which we have to. Anyhow. It is a different world we live in now. And since I am limited in my communications I can only suggest to you guys to get sitreps from the list of my blogs, especially by Andrey Raevsky and MoA. In related news, Patrick Armstrong, who, like me, ended up in the hotel when the real shock and awe unfolded, noted:

Being in a hotel, I have the opportunity to waste my time watching CNN. I am truly fascinated by how completely clueless the so-called experts, generals, politicians, that they have on are about this. They have no understanding of the Russian motives, they have no conception of what is actually going on, and they can’t see what is in front of their faces. My personal favourite is the US senator that says Russia is running out of food because it’s a communist country and therefore needs to conquer more agricultural land. This is a man whose office is bigger than your house, has a staff of dozens with a huge budget and that’s what he thinks is going on. The new new world order was born two days ago.

They ARE that ignorant and incompetent. Including top military brass who was spoiled rotten by the "lessons" of Gulf Wars and carpet bombing of a third rate Iraqi military. Let them watch and learn, hopefully. But I don't hold my breath. One thing, however, is clear--the United States got itself Europe. Good luck to Europe. But combined West has nothing left but to admit that it sure as hell "lost" Russia which was in the mode of breaking off with the West for a while. If anyone ever doubted it--read today's response by none other than Kremlin's liberal-designated Dmitry Medvedev. So, for now that is my word, I need to survive the wedding and I'll post as much as I can if it will be warranted.

Update From Russ.

No comments are needed. Russ nailed it.

Great update.
 

Byron King's Thoughts.

I am sure you will be able to get access to a full piece soon. But it is almost full here.  

First things first. I may be a newsletter writer, but I’m also a retired U.S. Navy officer. I’m obliged to tell you that what follows are personal opinions. I do not speak for the Navy, Department of Defense or U.S. government. Now, something else to mention up front: The price of gold is up as are futures for oil and natural gas. This while “stocks tumble” is the headline in Yahoo News. In other words, we have a flight toward safety and away from risk. To the extent it matters, that’s what we’ve been counseling readers here in Lifetime Income Report for some time now. Did you buy some gold or invest in energy? War or no war, one way or another your dollars are losing value against gold and definitely in terms of what you can buy. Whether it’s gas at the filling station, heating your home this winter, or food at the grocery story, prices have been going up. And now with the smell of gunpowder in the air, it appears the inflationary trends will stay that way.

Byron continues:  

“War is a dark room,” said one of my old professors at the Naval War College. Yes, because it’s hard to know exactly what’s going on while so many other things are happening in the complex arena of combat. It’s the classic fog-of-war issue. To phrase it another way, pretty much everything you see or hear about the early phases of a war are wrong. Okay, yes. You may see a photo of a smoking hole in the ground or a burning truck. And likely somewhere there’s a smoking hole in the ground, or a burning truck. But that doesn’t explain what’s really happening. Meanwhile, it’s not as if Western media are all that good at covering wars in general, despite all the practice over the past 30 years and more. And it’s not like many colleges or universities teach anything like real “military history.” (No, that course you took on the Civil War doesn’t cut it.)

Byron's focus on Western media and the way they "report" war is crucial. 

Still, there are a few basics that matter, things that help you make sense, at least at the strategic or operational level. Begin with the basic point of la guerre now raging in Ukraine. Plenty of reports of Russian missiles and aircraft; Russian troops, tanks and artillery; Russian electronic warfare and cyberwar and much more. But for now, don’t worry about tactical details; focus on what’s called “operational maneuver.” The proverbial balloon went up last night when military-grade fireworks lit off. But in reality, Russia has been preparing the battlefield for weeks, months and even years. That is, the Russian Army has been making plans for “how” to fight in Ukraine for over 300 years. This is something deep in the military DNA of Russia.

In the 1770s-80s, Catherine the Great rousted the Turks from much of what is now Ukraine, and not incidentally seized Crimea. More recently, Ukraine was the site of major conflict during World War I, the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War, and World War II. Then post-war, Ukraine was a keystone of the Soviet state, filled with Soviet-built industrial and military assets, and totally covered by Soviet defense doctrines and plans.

The takeaway here is that Russia’s General Staff are quite capable of planning combat operations in and around Ukraine. Do not underestimate Russian planners or equipment for even a moment. In my professional opinion (my 30 years of association with the U.S. Navy) they are outstanding at what they do.

As just an aside, and to illustrate the point, I should mention that Russian military maps are beyond excellent; they are works of art. Long story, but it goes back to the Napoleonic Wars when Russian generals realized they needed better maps. So they set up a cartographic branch that is nothing but superb, and that legacy continues today.

Meanwhile, Russia’s military cartographers work hand-in-hand with Russia’s extremely competent intelligence services (another legacy of the Napoleonic Wars) to identify pretty much everything; and I mean everything! They know the weight-bearing capacity of every bridge. They know what’s inside every factory. They know where every petroleum pipeline is buried. All this and more.

The point is, I’ve seen many Russian military maps, and Russia’s generals, colonels, company commanders and assault teams collectively know where everything is located that’s worth a bomb, a missile or a tank attack.

Byron, then goes to purely operational and geopolitical assessment: 

Russia began its operation with lightning-fast, precise missile and air strikes on Ukrainian airfields, radar systems, supply sites, communication nodes, military headquarters and other targets of warfighting import. Plus, paratroops and special forces landed behind lines or on top of important objectives, all coupled with blistering artillery and rocket strikes.

And Russian weapons are very good. They hit where they aim. So early on, Russian strikes (the air, rocket, artillery and special forces) took out pretty much all of the Ukrainian command structure, thus neutralizing higher headquarters. Right now, Ukrainian troops in the field have no leadership or coordination above the tactical level.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainians are surrendering in droves, and I actually believe that. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu has given instructions to treat all prisoners with respect. I believe that too.

As Day One closes and Day Two plays out, it’s fair to say that Russia has destroyed all significant Ukrainian air power and bases. One report, confirmed by NATO sources, had a Ukrainian jet make a dash to safety in Romania, escorted by NATO F-16s.

And Russia has destroyed all Ukrainian air defense systems, except for mobile, shoulder-fired weapons. Russia also destroyed all Ukrainian drones, or at least the command-and-control systems. And for what it’s worth, Russia has collapsed all Ukrainian naval power.

Right now, Russian troops are moving into and across Ukraine from the south, east and north, under a blanket of air superiority if not supremacy. The electronic battle space is entirely controlled by Russian operators. In this respect, Ukrainian ground forces are blind and being surrounded. And in any case, they are heavily outgunned by superior numbers of Russian machinery and outclassed by Russian systems that are truly state of the art.

When people say, “Russia is just a gas station with nuclear weapons,” I have to wonder about their overall knowledge. Because no, Russia is a highly sophisticated manufacturing and energy powerhouse full of well-educated people. Russia has everything from vast oil and gas fields to a space program that spent the past dozen years flying American astronauts into low orbit. And there’s much else of an advanced nature within the Russian economy, so don’t discount the place for even a second.

From where things stand right now, in all likelihood the war will be over soon. Expect a few more days of intense combat. Then over the weekend or early next week, things will culminate in some version of a general “surrender” by whatever Ukrainian government remains and follow-up neutralization of opposing forces.

Here in the West, politicians and pundits are apoplectic. They fill the airwaves with diatribes against Russia-Russia-Russia. They make it quite personal about Russian President Putin, too. And of course, there’s no discounting the will and power of one man to reshape history.

At the same time, Russia’s Ukraine operation is proceeding at national scale, not per the whim of one person. This military expedition reflects Russia’s pursuit of long-held national interests — again, going back to the days of Catherine the Great, the Napoleonic Wars and more recent adventures by other actors contra Moscow.

Prudently, President Biden and NATO leadership have publicly disclaimed any intent to send U.S., NATO or other Western forces to confront Russia in Ukraine. Good idea, right? Do not get into a war with Russia!

Russia has long made it crystal clear that it opposes NATO expansion towards its borders, and in the past eight years the Ukraine matter has been a top-shelf complaint. Russia watched what was happening and how, despite not being part of NATO-proper, Ukraine integrated itself into NATO force structures. This was never a secret; it was open and notorious.

Until recently, Russia was willing to make a deal that Ukraine not become a member of NATO and that the country play a neutral role in terms of any threat it might pose. But lately, and more to the point, for 31 years since the fall of the Soviet Union, the West has failed to work things out with Russia.

Two generations of U.S. and European leaders and policymakers have forgotten the sage advice of Germany’s long-ago Iron Chancellor Otto von Bismarck who once quipped, “The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”

No treaty. No deals. And so now we have a war. Things will play out in unpredictable ways.

The West is placing economic sanctions on Russia, to which Russia scoffs because the country is about as autarkic as a country can be. Russia self-produces almost everything. That, and sanctions work both ways.

Shut off banking or trade with Russia? Russia can shut off natural gas to Europe.

Kick Russia out of the international SWIFT money-clearing system? Russia and China have an alternative system in place, Plan B so to speak. Or Russia could demand gold for sales of vital materials like titanium or uranium.

Isolate Russia diplomatically? Russia can terminate airline overflight permission to Western airlines, essentially shutting down much of the international air commerce system.

And it goes on. We will have to wait and see how things play out.

For now, gold and energy look good. And Russia or no, the U.S. and Western world will still be stuck with growing rates of inflation. The war only masks our collective problems, and certainly will not solve them.

On that note, I rest my case.

Interestingly, UK imposed "sanctions" on Aeroflot. As Byron correctly points out--if Russia imposes sanctions on British Airways denying its right to fly in Russian airspace. Boy, look at the map--a major major bypass. And you know, oil is not cheap nowadays. So, here is Byron superb piece and I wanted to share with you with Byron's eloquence and clarity, which by now have become his trade mark.  

Paul Craig Roberts On All This.

 PCR may have finally gotten what he wanted to see.

The imbalance of force has been corrected, and since force is all that the West understands, Russia is using force to end the use of Ukraine as a pawn against Russia. In the past the stupid and arrogant West ignored Russia’s warnings. In his address this morning Putin gave another warning. If the dumbshit Western leaders do not hear this warning, the West will cease to exist: “I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.”

We live in epic times. No doubt about it and I happen to agree with Dr. Roberts' conclusion on the fate of the West.

You Gotta Love This.

Obviously West's "hands are tied". This is not about some BS hedge fund or Wall Street virtual economy. This is as real as it gets.

In the meantime, many energy industry executives have lost faith in the Biden Administration’s energy agenda. At a recent industry conference, the CEO of one large upstream company referred to the Biden administration as being “energy ignorant.” Another CEO admitted that their company has “no relationship at all” with anyone in the administration. Another told me during a recent interview that they found it “impossible” to even get a meeting with relevant officials at the Department of Interior or DOE. How can any government official really understand an industry they refuse to have a conversation with? The decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin Thursday to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine complicates matters even further. Markets panicked at the news, causing crude prices to jump 8% over night, with the international Brent price topping $105 per barrel and the U.S. domestic West Texas Intermediate index hitting the $100 mark. 

This is just the warm up. Biden's Admin is not just "energy ignorant". US "elites" as a whole are ignorant pretty much of any matter which defines appropriate governance, from foreign policy, to military and war, to economy, to education--you name it. When uneducated ideologues get to power this is what you get. But then again, I am on the issue of Western "elites" for so long that I even wrote three books on that. One needs competent people with integrity in political class to offset corruption and ignorance. For now this is not the case, most people with competence, integrity and vision have been purged. The results are obvious and easy to see.

Welcome To The New World.

The feature which will resonate with all normal Russians and Ukrainians is this: The Banner of Victory on the leading vehicle of the Russian armor column entering Ukraine:

This is not an empty symbolism, this is extremely important for all people in former USSR who know what it means by heart. The West supported Nazi regime in Ukraine for 8 years based on perfidious claims and pursuing one and only objective--trying to blow up Russia. This stops now. West wanted to see real Shock and Awe--here it is, watch and learn. The Nazi structure in Ukraine will be utterly demolished finishing the job which Stalin didn't finish and Khrushchev greatly exacerbated by allowing the remnants of Galician Nazi war criminals out of where they were supposed to stay forever--prisons. Now the job will be finished. 

As I predicted: regular VSU grunts will be taken in (VSU currently is in a gigantic cauldron without any chances of serious resistance), interrogated, provided with food (and medical care if need be), will sign the paper to never fight again and will be let go back home. For Nazi battalions, SBU, CIA and MI-6 assets and political wing which committed atrocities and war crimes a very different life starts now. They will either face war crimes tribunal (I think it will be set up in Donetsk) or will be hunted to the end of their lives and killed. They should ask for asylum in Canada--Canada loves to give shelter to Nazi scum. In the name of democracy and human rights, of course. 

Sanctions? You just wait and see. Russia, as I am on record for years, doesn't give a rat's ass about West's "reaction". The Europe is on her own and will be utterly subjugated and will be finished off by the United States, who also wants to eat and live longer: Bolivar cannot carry double(c). It was Europe's choice, she is on her own. Well, not really, she is with the US. Good luck--there is nobody to talk to in the West. From now on NATO will live with the widening military-technological gap across the whole spectrum of its capabilities, until this organization finds new meaning (well, Russia is a not a real raison d'etre) or simply withers away. The totalitarian and an increasingly poor future for the West, especially EU, is now guaranteed. But it is what it is. Finally, the United States was shown what it has become long time ago--a militarily impotent declining power.  It has, as you might expect, global ramifications.  People love winners and US "elites" do not understand how winning looks like, other than to be reelected and continue to serve one's own interests. Well, they have to wake up to a new reality--this New New World Order. 

P.S. I am off to the Caribbean;) 

It Started. Breaking News.

The "de-communization" of Ukraine has started. War crimes tribunal announced. Putin's address to nation!

                                USE as the open thread. 

Evidently Borispol Airport is under attack--closing any chance for criminals to escape. I assume SSO should be on the ground already.  

UPDATE: Per Channel Rossiya 24 (in Russian).  

LDNR forces are advancing, with Ukie artillery effectively suppressed along the whole length of the contact line, while Russia continues strikes using precision stand off weapons most of VSU C4ISR and bases. So, Mariupol (most likely) is next and some reports of a confusion and demoralization of VSU. 

UPDATE:

3M14 Kalibrs at work. 

Shock and Awe for VSU. LDNR forces are evidently on the move forward big time.

Even If They Wanted To...

... "fight" Russia in 404, neither US nor NATO as a whole have sufficient or good enough forces to do so.  

President Joe Biden has no plans to deploy American troops to fight Russians in Ukraine, the White House said, doubling down on the previous assertions by US officials that Washington won’t go to war with Moscow. “That is not a decision the president is going to make. We are not going to be in a war with Russia or putting military troops on the ground fighting Russia,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday. When repeatedly grilled by a reporter if there is a chance the US military’s boots would land on the Ukrainian soil if Russia moves to claim “all” of Kiev’s territory, Psaki reiterated: “I don’t know how many more times I can say it. There is no scenario – the president is not sending US troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia.”

These comments which poor Jen has to make constantly are not accidental. They are in response to a number of hacks who deal in propaganda and lies in DC and call themselves journalists who provide a "pressure", together with a serious lobbting by both Ukrainian diaspora and influence assets, who still think that the war may turn into yet another Iraq turkey shoot with US Tomahawks and F-15s blowing Russian troops up, as long as the US Army puts some boots on the ground in 404. We need to forgive them since they are uneducated hacks who are dealing primarily in PR BS and wouldn't know shit from shinola. 

Larry Johnson penned today a good piece on Russia and referred in it to the late Dr. Stephen Cohen. While concluding his article Larry applied a deft touch which I liked immensely.

I realize by writing this article I am immediately accused of being a tool of the Russians. I have one response, пошел на хуй. (Look it up.) Address the substance of my argument. The current trajectory of U.S. policy vis-a-vis Russia is perilous and foolish. Our ability to bully and coerce Russia has passed. We should follow the example of Ronald Reagan, who treated the Russians as equals while standing firm on American principles.

This is how one is supposed to talk today to American exceptionalists (see Russian phrase, LOL), the same as making a bullet-point cases against homicidal US foreign policy and demanding specific answers from the American side free of BS and demagoguery. I know, I ask for too much. Pepe twitted today this joke:

Joke of the day in Donetsk: “Putin calls Scholz: "We have recognized the Republics, DPR, LPR and GDR.” Scholz (horrified): “ GDR? Why GDR? Can you take the GDR off the list?" Putin: "I knew that there would be no objections to the first two points." 

LOL. I remember GDR warmly and our German friends from both the academy and 4th Volksmarine Flotilla. East Germans were THE ONLY foreign group in our academy which was allowed (granted, only short excursion with some Q&A) to highly classified auditoriums which contained hardware from, at that time, modern Soviet SSBNs and SSGNs.

Colonel Lang Nails It.

I already wrote about all these talking heads US generals who pose as experts on Russia (they are not) and Vladimir Putin's "intentions".  Now Colonel Lang asks the right question:

After watching the vacillating performance of talking head generals on TeeVee over the Ukraine matter, the question arises as to whether or not they are being “pumped up” by the Pentagon on a regular basis. In the Rumsfeld era this was routinely done. Some people were briefed in private, but others were invited to meetings with 20 or 30 others. These were presided over by Rumsfeld himself backed up by a couple of advisers. I was invited to one of these. I asked a couple of awkward questions to which Rumsfeld replied that he did not know the answers. I was not invited again, but that was all right as a number of those briefed talked to me regularly. Kellogg, Keane, Clapper, Petraeus, etc. IMO these people are probably on the briefing list.

As I am on record--independent military analysis is hard, especially in the midst of current US narrative about crisis in Ukraine, which is "packaged" into a wrap of mythological benign intentions by the US to see "the spread of democracy". So, all those generals and colonels with some very minor exception continue to propagate a narrative, not real analysis, especially against the background of their utter ignorance of Russia and how things work there. 

I commented on some issues related to LDNR yesterday:

As for the forecast, VSU is doing what it does always--"digs in" by means of positioning its assets in civilian sectors, up to moving some equipment literally into the houses of civilian population in occupied by VSU Donbass. But the reliable word is out and there is a serious demoralization on the VSU part because they recognize now the gravity of the situation for them. Will they attack LDNR now? Not impossible, the regime in Kiev understands now that the process of Ukraine's crumbling has started in earnest with OR without Russian "invasion". At this stage the only use for VSU is their slaughter by LDNR militias and Russian Army in case they attack (they continue to shell civilians) and delivering TV "picture" to the West. This is the extent of the West's military "capability" against Russia. It is really not about Ukraine.

DJT on Putin.

 No, really))

Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday praised Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine to support Russian-backed separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. In an appearance on the right-wing talk radio program "The Buck Sexton Show," Trump broke his conspicuous silence on the crisis to applaud the Russian dictator. "This is genius," he said of Putin's decision on Monday to officially recognize the breakaway provinces and authorize the use of Russian military personnel to assist them. "So Putin is now saying it’s independent — a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace, all right."

Eh, Donny, you did all you could to trash completely Russian-American relations, but, still, it is funny. This, however, is a sensible decision, because there is nothing to discuss. 

Washington has nixed nascent plans for a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin because of Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s breakaway republics, White House press secretary Jen Psaki has said. She added that the Biden administration still hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. “We’re never going to completely close the door to diplomacy, and I don’t think the Secretary of State did that either,” Psaki said, referring to the comments of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who called off talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, earlier on Tuesday. Psaki noted that the meeting between Blinken and Lavrov should have paved the way for the summit.

Ah, Jen. First you need to stop your constant "Russia, Russia, Russia" shtick and then try to rebuild anew the art of diplomacy which is non-existent at this stage in the US, and then, maybe, elect a POTUS who remembers who he is and where he is? That could be a good start for the exercise of ideas about some summit in the future. For now, there is nothing to discuss. The "old" New World Order must go and it is being demolished as I type this now.

The A-Ha Moment...

 with George F. Kennan. 

The US diplomat George Kennan, an astute observer of Soviet Russia under Stalin, offered his observations later in life on the question of NATO expansion. The tragedy of our times is that those views are being ignored. Winston Churchill once famously quipped that the “Americans will always do the right thing, but only after all other possibilities are exhausted.” That bit of dry British humor cuts to the heart of the current crisis in Ukraine, which is loaded with enough geopolitical dynamite to bring down a sizable chunk of the neighborhood. Yet, had the West taken the advice of one of its leading statesmen with regards to reckless military expansion toward Russia, the world would be a more peaceful and predictable place today.

Well, many don't even know Kennan's clarification of his policy of "containment". He stressed that he meant an ideological containment, the US wanted a military one. In the end, Kennan and his experience were totally ignored and the new crop of the American "diplomats"--badly educated, ignorant but high on the American exceptionalism and influence of ethno-religious lobbies in D.C., decided that they knew better. They didn't. The results of this ignorant arrogance we all observe today. Nor should we forget that Kennan was not always that benign either, but at least he knew about Russia way more than modern Department of State whose situational awareness in this regard is nearly non-existent. Ideology rules. 

Well, first "results" of Russia sanctions are becoming already known:

Neither Qatar nor any other country has the ability to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of interruptions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

OK, Russians know that. Then, this piece of news, obviously, explains some other economic "engines" behind current massive geopolitical realignment:

The oil market will find it impossible to replace Russia’s oil, which accounts for 10 percent of global supply, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director for natural resources and commodities at Fitch, told Russian media on Tuesday. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis could send oil prices to above $100 per barrel, according to Fitch’s expert. Early on Tuesday, oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel, with Brent Crude hitting a new seven-year high of $99 before easing to $97 per barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized late on Monday two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and deployed troops there in the most serious escalation of the crisis yet.   

You see? That explains why Russia not only anticipated but effectively sacrificed Nord Stream 2. In fact, Russia's reaction of disgust to Herr Scholz' attitudes towards war crimes committed by 404 in LDNR could have been this proverbial straw that broke camel's back. You cannot deal with these people, they have no consciousness and morals and Russians are pretty good at understanding when any activity becomes the exercise in futility. 

In seemingly unrelated news, Russia and Azerbaijan reached a landmark agreement today (in Russian) and signed joint declaration on Allied Relations. This event is much bigger than one may expect and is indicative of a process of consolidation of Russia's near abroad not only as markets but safe economic and political environment. In related news, Russia is removing her diplomats from Kiev, rightly so--shit is about to hit the fan in Ukraine in industrial quantities. For people to understand what modern Ukraine is, the analogy to Gulyaipole may help with understanding when viewed as a center of Mahno movement. Mahno being a euphemism for anarchy, fluid loyalties and robbery. You know, like modern day Ukraine.

Anatol Lieven Is an Idiot.

Which is expected from Anglo-American dumbed down Ph.D in political pseudo-science and the guy who has absolutely zero background in modern world other than dropping quotes from people who described the world in times of dreadnoughts and ballistic tables at best, and operated on the very general idea of selsyn driven analogue computers and basic principles of internal combustion engines. This is in the basic case scenario. Now we have all these "humanities"-educated "strategists" running like a bunch of goats slated for the slaughter trying to make out what do they see in this complex reality and as the result we have this pseudo-scholastic BS in Soros-funded Quincy Institute:

Putin’s move on Donestk, Lugansk is illegal but falls short of new ‘invasion. The next steps are critical: we must hold threat of full scale sanctions and a Ukrainian military response, until Russia extends farther. 

They just don't learn. They are incapable of learning. Top-bottom. For Lieven, personally, learn the goddamn history of Russia of the 20th century before offering your ignorant opinion on the issues of mobilization and real economy before trying to make sense on the events of such a scale that the "professors" from your Cambridge College can not even wrap their pea-brains around it. Resign yourself to a simple fact that islanders (UK-and US) suck at real continental warfare and you know zilch about it in the 21st century (same is applied to real economy and R&D). Yet, they continue to bloviate. It is really nauseating reading sweeping generalizations on "strategy" from people who would not recognize the difference between uncertainty in getting a STD from a crack whore in London and uncertainty in targeting received from space based assets when sensory fused with platforms organic sensors. Yet, here we are, good ol' boys from "elite" colleges where they pretend to "study" trying to make a sense out of what they see, having no tools to grasp it. That is why his "reasoning" reads like this: 

Russia’s action has narrowed the space for diplomacy to resolve this crisis, but not yet destroyed it. As long as there is any hope of preventing a wider war, it is our duty to pursue it, both by the genuine and credible threat of massive economic sanctions, and by the genuine and sincere offer of reasonable compromise.

Sounds and reads as that of a totally detached from the reality teenager. Sad, really, seeing this demagogue (together with Rod Dreher from TAC among many others) having a tribune in yet another pseudo "realist" remuneration source in D.C. Andrew Bacevich should know better. Especially the fact that US "diplomacy" is a simulacrum.

Russ Tells The Story...

Of LDNR (in his case is Donetsk). Russ Bentley, the call sign "Texas" is a Texan Russians would love to have more. 

Russ fought his ass off for LDNR, he merely recorded what life in LDNR is when the combined West supports 404 Nazis. This was yesterday. Today things are different. Rumor has it Russian armor rolls into LDNR as I type this.

Free, Free At Last!!!

Happy Birthday LDNR!! Happy Birthday New New World Order. 

Президент подчеркнул, что Москва требует от киевских властей "незамедлительно прекратить боевые действия, <...> в противном случае, вся ответственность за возможное продолжение кровопролития будет целиком и полностью на совести правящего на территории Украины режима".

Translation: Moscow demands from Kiev to immediately stop all hostilities, otherwise all responsibility for possible continuation of the bloodshed will be fully on the consciousness of the regime ruling in Ukraine. 

This is Moscow's response to a request for a summit from the US. Talks are over, time for actions. There WILL be war crimes tribunal for all involved, including those in the West.

Some visuals. About borders, we'll see tomorrow how they will be defined, but even in present borders LDNR will be just fine, since what is occupied by 404 was utterly destroyed and run down. They also have many svidomy "supporters" there. As Russian saying goes: one has to deserve Russian occupation. 

 

UPDATE: Here is the Order (Ukaz). 

Russian Armed Forces are given orders to ensure  provision of peace on the territory of LDNR (this Order in particular is about Lugansk, Donetsk Order is identical) until all formalities (like Mutual Aid Treaties) are complete.

Russia WILL Recognize LDNR.

And that will be the end of the regime in 404 and, in fact, the end of 404 as we know it. The West can have this shithole it helped to create and pay for it. As Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated today: Russia was preparing for the consequences of recognizing LDNR for many months now (in Russian). Mishustin is being somewhat disingenuous (understandably so), because this preparation started already in 2015. Recognition of the LDNR means the start of the process of integration with Russia and it means the start of the Russian troops rolling in to the line of contact with VSU and they are shitting pants right now in Kiev and at the front line. 

Expect Western media harpies going into the overdrive because this means NO war the way the US wanted it and that means that US establishment will have to face a domestic catastrophe. As Elysee Palace confirmed today (in Russian) it was Biden who asked Macron to arrange summit with Putin. I am on record, Russia has no need for this "summit" because there is nobody to talk to in Washington and all decisions on the issue of West-Russia relations have been made by Kremlin. We may begin to discuss ramifications of these decisions already today, but as I already stated--New New World Order is coming. 

In related news. French Revue Defense Nationale issued a rather pleasant revue of my The Real Revolution in Military Affairs. 

You can read it here:

Né à Bakou en 1963, officier dans la marine soviétique puis ingénieur aux États-Unis, Andrei Martyanov est l’auteur de Losing Military Supremacy. The Myopia of American Strategic Planning (Clarity Press Inc., 2018), dont nous avions à l’époque rendu compte ici même. Le présent livre est en quelque sorte la suite logique du précédent et s’intéresse à la véritable révolution militaire que constitue selon lui le développement des nouvelles armes hypersoniques. L’ouvrage commence par une réflexion sur la notion de puissance, car « la politique se définit par des éléments de puissance, notamment économique et militaire ».

But even this book will require soon a new and updated edition. That is how much and fast things change in the world. 

UPDATE: Putin already informed both Macron and Scholz that he will sign today a decree on Donbass Ria reports (in Russian). Those two expressed their "disappointment". Evidently modern West and its leaders have no concept of consequences or of cause and effect. 

UPDATE: The address is in the progress. See here. 

UPDATE: LDNR is recognized and the Treaty of Mutual Help is being concluded, putting LDNR under direct Russia's military protection.

Why Would Putin Say This?

Vladimir Putin made a statement on Friday: 

No new sanctions can possibly deter Russia from doing what it wants, because Moscow has experience dealing with them for many years already, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned. Speaking at a joint press conference with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, on Friday, the Russian leader claimed Moscow cannot possibly avoid Western sanctions, because they are not aimed at altering the Kremlin's behavior. In his view, they are actually a plan to hinder the economic development of Russia. “Sanctions will be imposed in any case. Whether they have a reason today, for example, in connection with the events in Ukraine, or there is no reason, it will be found,” Putin said. “The goal is different. In this case, the goal is to slow down the development of Russia and Belarus.”

1. For starters, Putin stated the obvious truth. This is not to say that Russia is invulnerable--obviously she is not 100% proof--but all things considered, quoting Patrick Armstrong, Russia is the closest thing to autarky in the modern world. That is absolutely true.

2. We can only continue to speculate on the scale, obviously massive, of military-political and economic arrangements between Russia and China, but, boy, this is unprecedented for China:

Washington should help de-escalate tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border and drop persistent threats of punitive measures against Moscow, Beijing’s top diplomat has said amid a growing standoff between East and West. Speaking in a briefing on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin weighed in on US predictions that Russia’s armed forces could soon begin pouring over the border of the Eastern European nation to wage an offensive. According to him, “the credibility of the US intelligence community has been tested on many occasions, including Iraq and Ukraine.” “I would like to stress once again that in seeking a political resolution of the Ukraine issue, nobody should put up a smokescreen of war and use it as leverage, or threaten others with sanctions and pressure, still less resort to the means of inciting bloc confrontation,” Wang added. The diplomat insisted that “efforts should be made on the basis of the Minsk II agreement to properly treat the reasonable security concerns of all sides, including Russia, through dialogue and negotiation, and work for the full resolution of the Ukraine crisis and related issues.”

For Washington it has to be really sobering finding itself arguing with two monsters: one--largest economy in the world, the other--the most advanced military capability in the world.  

3. But Putin's entirely justified assertiveness (those who follow REAL economy for years will agree) is more than just the statement of obvious. Especially against the background of a convulsing efforts by Macron to both win elections and undermine Germany. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden have both agreed in “principle” to hold a meeting to halt escalation of conflict in Ukraine, the Elysee Palace said in a statement on Sunday night. Emmanuel Macron “proposed a summit to be held between President Biden and President Putin and then with relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe,” according to the statement. “Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit,” it added.However, such a meeting “can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine,” the Elysee palace added. 

Well, I doubt anything will come out of this "summit", precisely because Beijing Olympics are over (hopefully they stop this charade with the utterly corrupt Olympic movement and kill this BS political-ideological pseudo-sport BS) and the question, as IS stated by everybody constantly, is much wider than escalation in Ukraine. It is about what I call now New New World Order and Russia spearheading the "change of the guard", so to speak, because, frankly, folks, combined West fucked it up on an unprecedented historically scale, including for itself. Moreover, West's future is at best foggy and uncertain, at worst--it is a full disintegration of Western Civilization, namely its European part, into the declining totalitarian post-modernist dystopias with eventual economic collapse. I speak about this vector of the development today: 

The reaction of the West's big media and politico guns is telling. And Putin's statement on both sanctions and, especially, genocide is very clear--Russia is in the position, together with China, to press the issue of "changing of the guard" in the most energetic way. But then again, I was also on record that economic dynamics in Russia, when viewed with the cold head, was telling. So, no matter what happens in Ukraine, the issue of Russia's larger security concerns and, with it, the coming of the end of the West will be addressed one way or another. Pathetic "two minute hate" session at the Munich Security Conference has proven again--there is nobody to talk to among this collection of losers and that, in the end, may untie Russia's hands. If not already.

Olaf Scholz Came In Handy...

And since this colorless German politician paraded himself, yet again, as a coward and a poodle, we might as well expand on the issue of which I write since the inception. More than 7 years ago I wrote:

Expecting from Ivy League humanities "educated" types understanding the Combined Arms Operations and why today there are full blown tank battles happening around Donetsk, as well as understanding the consequences of their decisions, is akin to expecting a local high school janitor practice brain surgery in spare time. But there are consequences and there are battles and, for the first time in history, Russian and Russophone civilians are being killed as a direct result of the US (and its European clients--but that is not really the news)  policies and support for their criminal proxies in Kiev.    

I also wrote 7 years ago:

The consequences of yet another defeat of VSU in Donbass can have a serious political fallout for Kiev junta and its US and European curators. In fact, some gangsters in Kiev may not even live to see themselves in a front of a jury for their war crimes. But the moment of truth is coming. Somebody has to answer for atrocity being committed against the people of Novorossia. They will answer.  

Since then I never stopped writing about responsibility of those who perpetrated by now a very long list of war crimes not just in 404 but around the world. Now back to our present. Herr Scholz called statement by Vladimir Putin about genocide in Donbass "laughable" couple of days ago. Well, it is Germany's political "elite" which is laughable, but Scholz being a specialist in labor and employment law and in spewing hollow BS in Bundestag, should have updated himself on what it means when Vladimir Putin and Russia as a state begin to use such terms as "genocide" officially. He, certainly, could have consulted with his ignorant clueless bimbo Annalena Baerbock, but this "consultation" would have confused him even more. 

So, Russia's Foreign Ministry responds to Schols' comments today:

МОСКВА, 19 фев — РИА Новости. Москва в ближайшее время направит в Берлин материалы о массовых захоронениях в Донбассе после слов канцлера ФРГ Олафа Шольца о смехотворности утверждений, что на юго-востоке Украины происходит геноцид, написала в своем Telegram-канале официальный представитель МИД Мария Захарова. "Публиковать эти материалы мы не можем — любая платформа их заблокирует как "недопустимый контент". Аналогичный сет мы уже направили в Вашингтон", — добавила она, предупредив, что "это не могут смотреть даже те, кто видел все".

Translation: MOSCOW, February 19 - RIA Novosti. Moscow will soon send materials on mass graves in Donbass to Berlin after the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the ridiculousness of allegations that a genocide is taking place in the southeast of Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel. “We can’t publish these materials – any platform will block them as “inappropriate content.” We have already sent a similar set to Washington,” she added, warning that “even those who have seen everything cannot watch it.”

 

The official diplomatic mail is being prepared and Germany will receive these materials shortly. Scholz' reaction, if he is not a complete moron, about "ridiculousness" of those claims, may, actually be the first nervous knee jerk reaction of a lawyer who was spooked by the fact that the President of Russia spoke about "genocide". Make no mistake, if war happens Ukrainian "elite", especially its militant neo-Nazi wing, will be brought to face war crimes tribunal. Where it will be established I don't know, but even Hague is not out of the considerations. But that is not just it, and here is the real issue: a number of Western military, political and media personalities WILL be indicted and that is a completely different matter. Russia was very meticulous in collecting and systematizing all the records of the atrocities and military crimes the West has committed around the world. Scholz also should recall that Germany played a decisive role in overthrowing a legitimate, however corrupt, Yanukovich government in 2014. There are many people in Germany, ranging from politicians to media, to German intel services, whose names are well known and who have a rap sheet which many thugs from  Chicago can only dream about.  Moreover, unlike Chicago thugs, these well nurtured and dressed ladies and gentlemen do this on a massive scale. 

 

They are not entirely stupid, because some of them can see where the West is going. In fact, a rough equivalent of Russia's deadly 1990s and chaos for both EU and the US are already here. Things will only get much-much worse with further disintegration of statehood institutions in the Western world and inevitable shake up in elites, because present ones are leading the West towards a complete political and cultural disintegration. This time is not far away. For the United States it is already here and the process is fairly advanced. Once Russia concludes consolidation of her economic and military position vis-a-vis combined West, which by that time will be in a deeper turmoil, the indictments will follow. These ones will be in relation to Western politicos and media. As I already stated, there are many of them who are guilty in assisting or instigating mass murders all around the world and the worst outcome for them is accelerating degradation of Western political and military institutions, which prior to 2014 were the ONLY guarantee for them to never face war-crimes tribunal. 

 

But then again, recall what I wrote more than 7 years ago. I reiterate:

But it is already clear that by failing to achieve any sensible political objectives in Ukraine and in Russia, and, by this, starting a massive global re-alignment, the United States sustained a defeat. What will be the consequences of this defeat? I hate to speculate, I just know that they are already big and that the moment of facing the reality is coming. 

I spent the last 8 years explaining in a minute detail why the West made a mistake of historic proportions by choosing Russia and Russians to fvck with. Russians have a proverb that once every century the combined West goers to Russia to has its ass handed to them by Russians. But West doesn't learn. Very many people in the West responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity will be brought to justice and many of them know it. That is why the United States blindly continues with self-defeating propaganda of the "Russian Invasion" because not only they are ignorant, which they are, but because they begin to feel a worry. I am on record: the West lost the arms race and is losing economic competition and we know what it means: a defeat with everything that follows. Now Olaf Scholz may nervously repeat his statement about "ridiculous" or "laughable" claims of genocide. Does he want to insist on his position? He better consult UN Office on Genocide and recall why Nuremberg Tribunal was discussed (on Soviet initiative) already in 1943 at Tehran. Russians know a thing or two about it. 

 

In related news, Russia held her strategic triad exercises and some videos from there are a good fodder for us, lovers of a military porn, LOL)) Here is fully Operational Kinzhal being launched by MiG-31K. 

And here is you serial-produced 3M22 Zircon doing its thing.
 

I told you, and the phrase at 0:19 "the probability of "coverage" is ONE (100%)", meaning the probability of reaching enemy's surface group is what I write about since... years and years ago. I will remind you:

Read about this transformation of classic salvo equations here. It also explains why they are getting really nervous. They should. 

A Bit of a Broadside and a Misnomer.

RT continues the stream of its misnomers as of lately and now it produced yet another one while reporting this. 

Russia may attack Ukraine on Saturday, starting with a “decapitating” strike against the government in Kiev before a full-scale invasion, warned the Institute for the Study of War, a star-studded Washington, DC think-tank. “The attack would likely begin with an air and missile campaign targeting much of Ukraine to decapitate the government and degrade the Ukrainian military as well as the ability of Ukrainian citizens to prepare to resist a subsequent Russian invasion,” ISW’s Fred Kagan and Mason Clark claimed in an urgent bulletin on Friday evening. As the main reason they believed Saturday would be an “optimal” date for the attack, Kagan and Clark cited Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky’s planned trip to the Munich Security Conference, where he is scheduled to speak on Saturday afternoon.

My issue? My issue is not with this neocon sewer ISW which produced this:

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: New Indicators of Imminent Russian Attack

By Fredrick W. Kagan and Mason Clark

February 18, 2022, 2:00 pm ET

Russia may launch an attack on Ukraine on Saturday, February 19, 2022. The attack would likely begin with an air and missile campaign targeting much of Ukraine to decapitate the government and degrade the Ukrainian military as well as the ability of Ukrainian citizens to prepare to resist a subsequent Russian invasion. US and allied governments have been warning of such an attack for some days, pointing to the size of the Russian forces concentrated on Ukraine’s borders. Western officials have additionally said that Russian troops have moved to jumping-off positions for an invasion over the past 24 hours. The following additional conditions and indicators point to February 19 as an optimal date for a Russian attack:

My issue is not with this BS. Expected from Kagans' clan. My issue is with this: a star-studded Washington, DC think-tank. If, as RT claims, it is "star-studded" why don't we look at who those "stars" are. I am not going to discuss any military (lack) of expertise among Kagans (this pseudo-strategic scam is founded by Kimberley Kagan) but apart from being fanatical neocons, they not only qualify as war criminals (and we are yet discuss this issue), but have General Tommy Franks assessment of Douglas Feith as the fucking stupidest guy on the face of the earth(c) fully applied to Kagans in terms of warfare. So, who are those stars in this org? Let's see:

General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired), Chairman, Institute for the Study of War; President, GSI, LLC

Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Founder & President, Institute for the Study of War

The Honorable Kelly Craft, Former US Ambassador to UN and Canada

Dr. William Kristol, Director, Defending Democracy Together

The Honorable Joseph I. Lieberman, Senior Council, Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman, LLP

Kevin Mandia, Chief Executive Officer & Board Director, Mandiant

Jack D. McCarthy, Jr., Senior Managing Director & Founder, A&M Capital

Bruce Mosler, Chairman, Global Brokerage, Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.

General David H. Petraeus (US Army, Retired), Member, KKR & Chairman, KKR Global Institute

Dr. Warren Phillips, Lead Director, CACI International

Colonel William Roberti (US Army, Retired), Managing Director, Alvarez & Marsal

The only persons of any military background I can see here are General Petraeus, General Keane and Colonel William Roberti. I don't know who Roberti is, but there is another General on Staff of this ISW--General James Dubik. The rest of it, as is expected, a bunch of useless credentials (from Ivy League fraudulent humanities programs) loaded "scholars", many of them from Ukraine, take a gander, and people who wouldn't know the difference between LGBT and BTG. So, why don't we try to define military "stardom" in appropriate terms. Indeed, who is a real star, militarily-speaking, on what merit this "stardom" is bestowed on military people? I can tell you upfront: winning campaigns, wars. Napoleon may have been a complete ass-hole as a man, but there is no denial that he was a military genius and kicked so much ass in his life that no matter how one may not like him, there is no denial--he is a military star. Alexander Suvorov, who bears the title of generalissimo and even owns (to his name) a part of Switzerland, not to mention being a Count of Holy Roman Empire and Prince of Kingdom of Sardinia. He became a military star and got all these titles and awards not because he was a nice guy, but because he won of all his campaigns. 

Mikhail Illarionovich Kutuzov was an overweight and one eye blind (he lost the eye in wars in Crimea) but he is world renown because this is the guy who defeated Napoleon Invasion of Russia in 1812. Is he is a star. You can bet your own ass on that, because in 1814 (he  died by then) Alexander I and Russian Army triumphantly entered Paris. The spirit of Kutuzov was with Russian Army and Czar. How about Eisenhower? Well, guess who got Order of Victory from Stalin? Many complain that Ike was not this or that, but guess what--he ended up sharing a victory with likes of Zhukov, Konev, Rokossosvsky or Vasilvesky, giant military stars of truly historic proportions in their own right. And nobody can say that Ike didn't deserve it. Want to see a true military leader? Read Ike's letter before the D-Day written in case the landing fails--the man takes all personal responsibility for such a failure. This is a sign of a very big man and military leader of historic proportions. It also inspires an admiration for a man. 

Is Monty a military star? Sure. So is, undeniably, Chester Nimitz. It was also ever diligent Omar Bradley who was behind many operations of the US Army in Europe in 1944-45. All this is understandable, you can even credit Erich Von Meinstein with brilliant military leadership and military art practitioner of a highest level. Even a devout Nazi Walter Model was a man of a major military talent (when at the top of his game) and has a record to back it up. I can continue to list many international military stars who left an indelible mark on military history, strategy, operational art and tactics. In their lives they were often very successful scoring major victories in campaigns or winning campaigns against the first rate peers. 

Now let's take a look at ISW's "stars". We will start with General Jack Keane. The guy literally lives on FOX news as "analyst" of Russia. 

General Jack Keane (U.S. Army, Retired) is a foreign policy and national security expert who provides nationwide commentary in speeches, articles, congressional testimony and through several hundred television and radio interviews annually. He is the President of GSI Consulting and serves as Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War and the Knollwood Foundation, is Executive Chairman of AM General and a Director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and the Smith Richardson Foundation. General Keane is a member of the Secretary of Defense Policy Board under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; he also served on that board during the Bush and Obama administrations. He was a member of the Commission on National Defense Strategy selected by the late Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, Senator John McCain. General Keane is also a Trustee Fellow of Fordham University and an advisor to the George C. Marshall Foundation. General Keane, a four-star general, completed 37 years of public service in December 2003, culminating in his appointment as acting Chief of Staff and Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army. As the chief operating officer of the Army for over 4 years, he directed 1.5 million soldiers and civilians in 120 countries, with an annual operating budget of 110 billion dollars. General Keane was in the Pentagon on 9/11 and provided oversight and support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since 2004, General Keane conducted frequent trips to Iraq and Afghanistan for senior defense officials with multiple visits during the surge period in both countries. General Keane is a career infantry paratrooper and a decorated combat veteran of Vietnam who spent much of his military life in operational commands, including the famed 101^st Airborne Division (Air Assault) and the legendary 18th Airborne Corps, the Army’s largest war fighting organization.

The first question which pops up is this? Since when this general has become a "star".  Many generals commanded many soldiers in their lives but that doesn't make them a star. It is HOW you command and what is your record which matter. And here is the point which I made above--and it is universally agreed upon--what are the campaigns which Keane won? What are his merits as battlefield leader and strategic and operational commander? Very many people in armed forces all around the world serve 37 years and even longer. I can give an example, Vice-Admiral Oleg Golubev, a graduate class of a year later than mine from our naval academy, is already 41 years in service. He is deputy commander of Northern Fleet and, most likely, its future commander. He has under his command a firepower which can wipe the United States off the map in a single salvo. Like this:

Many people serve long terms in Armed Forces all around the world. Also, very many people go through hot spots, military campaigns, operational and combat zones. But last time I checked, Vietnam, where General Keane started his career was not exactly a success. After beating the shit from a third-rate utterly incompetent and outgunned Saddam's "fourth largest in the world" Army, the US got bogged down in Iraq, destroyed shitload of real estate there and after that concluded Afghanistan War with... well, we know what.  I look at General Keane's bio and still cannot find a single entry with won wars, campaigns or, at least, notable battles. Keane is, certainly, a TV star, he certainly provides a lot of talking about Russia and her Armed Forces but I doubt General Keane understands how Russian State operates and how Russian Armed Forces are integrated in it on a doctrinal level. No US General has any experience with that because no US military man, none, zilch, nada ever fought in defense of his or her homeland. It is simply a different culture which most people in the US, including current top bras, cannot grasp. 

Then we begin to look at another "star", General Petraeus. I, honestly, cannot remember Petraeus for any military accomplishments other than a fucking mess in Iraq and a "brilliant" command in Afghanistan debacle. Of course, he was appointed the head of CIA but is primarily remembered for screwing Paula Broadwell. Just to give some perspective, Marshal Rokossovsky (that is one of the brightest military stars in history) was rumored (mostly false) to have a romantic extramarital affair with a famous Soviet movie actress Valentina Serova. 

And while those were primarily rumors, when Stalin got a report about Rokossovsky's alleged affair and was asked (and this is not a legend, it is a fact) what are we going to do about it, Comrade Stalin? After all, people's favorite, one of the greatest military leaders etc. Not a good example, et al. Stalin, after a second of contemplation responded: "What are we going to do, what are we going to do? We are all going to envy Comrade Rokossovsky." 

You may say what I am getting at? Very simple--modern United States doesn't have military stars in the top brass, because it lost all of its modern wars (with the exception of Grenada) while providing not only shameful propaganda of own accomplishments, where there were none, but covering up one humiliation after another, including utter strategic and operational ineptness of US "military stars" who lied constantly to public about losing yet another America's ill-conceived military adventure in the lands which pose zero threat to the United States.  When even CIA outlet such as WaPo cannot take it anymore of this military stars' BS and has to publish this:

The Afghanistan Papers  

One has to ask the question, are these people like Keane, Petraeus and likes any good other than self-promotion and spreading BS for the sake of MIC profits? We all know the answer, not everybody just wants to say loud--no, they are not. Not only they are not good military leaders, they are ignorant ones and when I see them bloviating on Russia and Russian Armed Forces I cringe. They parade themselves as political clowns good only for lobbying of anyone's interests as long as the pay is good. Where are you campaigns and wars won? None exist.

One user posted a link to a lecture by Dr. Philip Karber to West Point Cadets in 2018 about Russia's capabilities. 

Even today, four years hence this video is dated but also gives some insight in how mislead and how speculative "experts" in the US are even in a relative non-publicity of the West Point's confines. I can repeat what I repeated many times (Patrick Armstrong also says it all the time): your intel is not good, in fact, you all don't know shit about the subject you are talking about. The last excrement from ISW (what wars do they "study" there?) is a decisive proof of a complete loss of not only any situational awareness which was always shaky but a complete confused state when it comes to Russia. It is really cringe-worthy to read and watch these "stars" from the fraudulent BS narrative mongering "think-tank" who parade own ignorance, if not malice, publicly covering their real war-mongering goals with sophomoric pseudo-military psychobabble. Face the facts--you are not that good, and the US military history is dwarfed by the scale and tradition of Russia's military accomplishments which are rooted in defense of Russians' motherland and the only thing left for Keane or Petraeus is to watch and as Stalin stated: "You are all going to envy." And that's the secret to your impotent anger. That's what losers do. If RT thinks that this ISW is "star-studded", they better ask Margo Simonyan to visit Russia's Academy of General Staff--they will explain to her what real military stardom is.