Monday, November 15, 2021

Chemezov About S-550.

As I speculated earlier (a week ago) on S-550:

This speculation turned out to be very exact. Rostec's big honcho Sergei Chemezov speaking about S-550 disclosed some new details about it. 

ДУБАЙ, 15 ноября. /ТАСС/. Новейшие комплексы С-550 будут обладать большей дальностью обнаружения целей и дальностью действия ракет. Они смогут перехватывать любые цели, заявил журналистам глава госкорпорации "Ростех" Сергей Чемезов на международном авиасалоне Dubai Airshow 2021. "Это работа, которая никогда не останавливается и будет дальше вестись с тем, чтобы увеличить и дальность обнаружения, и дальность ракеты с возможностью перехвата любых целей. Вот на это и направлены работы по С-550".  

Translation:  DUBAI, November 15. / TASS /. The newest S-550 complexes will have a greater target detection range and missile range. They will be able to intercept any targets, Sergei Chemezov, head of the Rostec state corporation, told reporters at the Dubai Airshow 2021 international air show. "This is a work that never stops and will continue to be carried out in order to increase both the detection range and the range of the missile with the ability to intercept any targets. This is what the work on the S-550 is aimed at," he said.

Now, we may speculate more and assume with a very good level of reliability of our assumptions that we are looking at further development of S-500--incidentally, S-550 already exists as a weapon system--and we will be looking at a system with the range of intercept of aerodynamic and hyper-sonic targets of atmospheric variety (including gliders) at insane ranges. For purely anti-ballistic tasks we know A-235 Nudol is already in and its mobile version should start arriving to front-line units fairly soon. I am going out on a limb here and propose that S-550 is a system to basically ground any Air Force in the world permanently in Russia's immediate and medium-range geographic vicinity (up to 1000 kilometers) and address any issue of salvos of cruise missiles. 

Generally speaking, the whole notion of S-550 deployed somewhere around St. Petersburg being able to shoot down any NATO aircraft taking off from airfields near Warsaw, or, if deployed in Kaliningrad, to shoot down combat aircraft taking off from Ramstein  is a grim proposition for NATO, but that is how it works nowadays. It also means no AWACS and targeting, since even with S-500 it is basically a death sentence to any recon and EW aircraft on the theater of operations, with around 1000 kilometer range of AD missiles, come on. Rumor has it that E-3's AN/APY-2 radar has a maximum range of up to 500 kilometers, which is a bad proposition already now with S-500 arriving to front-line units and capable to hit aerial targets at precisely this range. So, make your own conclusions. 

A lot of military mambo-jumbo talk will be initiated now on all kinds of "military" forums and in "military" media by fanboys and ignorant journos, but the simple truth expressed in layman's lingo is that if you have a bow and arrows and a good eye-sight and if I have a AK-12 with collimator night vision sight, guess from three attempts who is going to win. Remarkably, as I state this for years and years, and years--there is nothing unexpected in Russia's weapons' development. In fact, it is boring and predictable: if Russia has 500 kilometer range AD complex, you can bet your own dear ass on the next complex with the range of 800 or 1,000 kilometers and faster and better missiles being in works. It's the same with Russia's anti-shipping missiles, just follow the speeds since 1960s: M-0.95 for Malakhits, M=1.3-1.5 for P-6/35, M=1.5-2.5 for P-700 Granit and P-270 Moskit, M=2.5-3.0 for P-800 Onyx, M=3.5 for X-31, M=4.2 for X-32, M=8-9 for 3M22 Zircon. GZURs with M=12+ and the range of 1,500 kilometers are coming. See any pattern? Same with AD complexes, or, for that matter, with anything else. If one can launch Zircon at 1,000 kilometers at M=9, then, as the logic goes, one will have little trouble creating AD missile of the same range and speed.

Twenty five years ago one US Navy SEAL wrote a book with a telling title--Never Fight Fair. This is exactly what war is and following Clausewitz dictum that the main object of war is "to compel enemy to do our will", there is nothing better for doing it than fielding a massively superior military technology, which breaks completely old warfare paradigms and sets up new ones. This is called Real Revolution in Military Affairs. In related news, Russia flew her MC-21 with PD-14 engines to Dubai. 

I know, Russia is collapsing especially strongly today. (/s).      

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