Thursday, February 11, 2021

Words Are Also Deeds.

As late Senator Fulbright's truism goes: "words are deeds and style is substance insofar as they influence men’s mind and behavior." If anyone had any doubts about how Russia views combined West, they should really listen to what Russia's representative to United Nations Vasily Nebenzya called Paris and Berlin to their faces today. Speaking at the meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to the anniversary of the Minsk Agreement, Nebenzya didn't mince the words:

Translation: Those, who support only one side in the Ukrainian conflict and indulge, contrary to all facts, Ukraine's sick fantasies about  Russian aggression, cannot call themselves intermediaries. You, gentlemen, are rather accomplices of crimes by Kiev against the population of Donbass. 

Do I need to comment on that? I will abstain for now, but let me remind you one funny fact. Six years ago I stated: 

I didn't state it lightly, I meant it. This is the first broadside about actual consequences for those in the West who--and Germany and France played a crucial role in atrocity in Ukraine--from Russia and there are reasons for that. This is not an empty threat. Why there are reasons for that, I will not discuss it now, but knowing how Russians approach war crimes against Russia and Russians, you can bet your ass on Russia having already a serious dossier on personalities from Europe and US who participated and encouraged war crimes in Donbass. 

In related news, Pentagon deployed B-1B bombers to Norway to, and you guessed it already, "send message to Russia". Sure, nothing new here:   

Yes, that sends the "message", alright. But not the one US thinks it sends, the message is simple: Orland is around 1500 kilometers (as the crow flies) from Severomorsk and both Container and Rezonans Radar on Novaya Zemlya will have no problems with detecting and tracking B-1s or, for that matter, anything well before they arrive at the range of launching their JASSMs. But then again, there is always an implied deal here between the US and Russia defined as: if shit hits the fan--exchange Severomorsk for Norfolk. US Arctic deployments, including increasing the number of submarine patrols around Northern Fleet bases is an expected development, but the dynamics of both Northern Fleet's ASW, Air Defense and network capability are such that this kind of deployments are looked at with a degree of irony. In the end, there are always patrols by MiG-31BMs and SU-30SMs of the Northern Fleet aviation to deal with any kind of contingency. In the end, as the article about disruption of the US "multi-domain operation" against Russia states:

Одним из элементов разведывательно-ударной системы могут рассматриваться КРВБ «Кинжал». Их пуски способны осуществляться за пределами зон поражения ПВО противника, вне зон видимости радиолокационных средств с учетом значительной дальности поражения в едином интегрированном информационном пространстве, что позволит выбирать наиболее важные цели поражения в режиме реального времени. Пуск крылатых ракет может производиться с различных направленийс таким расчетом, чтобы обеспечивался одновременный их пролет государственной границы или одновременное поражение объектов противника. Относительно новым элементом разведывательно-ударной системы группировки войск (сил) является применение беспилотных летательных аппаратов, предназначенных для подавления РЛС и ЗРК, уничтожения авиации на земле и в воздухе, нарушения системы управления и связи, блокирования аэродромов, наращивания возможностей отечественной разведывательно-ударной системы в едином интегрированном пространстве.   

Translation: Aeroballistic hypersonic system Kinzhal can be considered one of the elements of recon-strike system. Kinzhal's launches can be conducted beyond zones of enemy's air defense and beyond visibility of its radar because of Kinzhal's long range actualized in the unified integrated informational environment, which allows to acquire the most valuable targets in real time. The launches of cruise missiles can be conducted from different directions to allow for simultaneous crossing of the state border or simultaneous destruction of enemy's targets. A relatively new element of rec on-strike system of the group of forces is deployment of the UAVs designed to suppress enemy's radar and air-defense complexes, and destroy aviation on the ground and in the air, simultaneously disrupting battle management and communications systems and blocking air fields, thus increasing capabilities  of own recon-strike system in the integrated battle-space. 

Those who read article attentively, they may have noticed that it primarily speaks about US weapon systems which are not even deployed. But in general, at the core of the article is this:

...исходя из сформулированных начальником Генерального штаба ВС РФ генералом армии В.В. Герасимовым принципов превосходства над противником, в том числе «постоянное упреждение противника и ведение превентивных действий (по принципу на шаг - два впереди)». Можно констатировать, что в создавшихся условиях Российская Федерация способна перейти от политики сдерживания потенциального противника ядерным оружием к политике устрашения нанесения ему неприемлемого комплексного поражения всеми видами вооруженияв рамках превентивных действий в условиях нависшей над Российской Федерацией угрозы локальной войны. 

Translation: Considering principles of superiority over the enemy formulated by the Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, including "constant anticipation (forestalling) of the enemy, conducting of preventive actions on principle "for each step--two steps ahead", we can state, that under present conditions Russian Federation is capable of transitioning from the policy of containment of the potential enemy by means of nuclear weapons to the policy of deterrence (intimidation) by means of dealing unacceptable complex damage within the framework of preventive actions in case of the threat of local war to Russia. 

As you may have surmised already, the reason it is possible is simple--Russian weapons are simply faster, much faster than anything the United States has or will be able to deploy beyond 2025. Time frame for this article is given between 2025-2040. And we all know what is coming before 2025 to Russian Armed Forces, not to speak of what's coming after. As I am on record, even today Russia can basically wipe out by conventional means any NATO (US) force anywhere in Europe and Middle East in case of the United States deciding to commit suicide. This annihilation will come faster than USAF will be able to reach the ranges of launch for its weapons and this is precisely why there is little actual concern about deployment of whatever the US wants to deploy in Norway or anywhere else. That's show biz for ya, folks.      

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