Wednesday, May 20, 2020

They Are Sometimes Useful.

I mean intelligence agencies which conduct actual intelligence gathering and analysis. RT published this piece today: 
US military intelligence has admitted Iran has no plans to “actively oppose” the peace process in Afghanistan, directly contradicting one of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s many allegations about the Islamic Republic.The report by the lead inspector general on the state of the ongoing war in Afghanistan poured cold water on Pompeo’s speculation that Iran is seeking to upend the strained peace process between the US and the Taliban, confirming the Defense Intelligence Agency has no reason to believe Tehran will “actively oppose” the negotiations that are supposed to end with the US withdrawing troops.While acknowledging the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s March statement that Washington “has no legal standing to sign a peace agreement or to determine the future of Afghanistan,” the DIA pointed out that the statement fell significantly short of an intention to meddle in the peace process – especially because Iran was fully on board with the departure of US forces from the region.
Indeed, how could this be (/s) that Iran which knows what real war is doesn't want a war? We all know that Pompeo is good at telling fairy tales, especially to the benefit of his Old Testament buddies from Israel, but actual report by three Inspectors General from DoD, Department of State and USAID, could be found on line and it has a funny name of:

I may never grasp the significance of the usage (in reality shameless abuse) of the term "freedom" when naming military operations which are designed to kill on a massive scale, but it is just me and after Freedom Fries, I don't think I have a strong case. But here is the phrase which should be paid attention to:
According to the DoS, the United States and Russia released a joint statement welcoming the signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement as an important step to end the war in Afghanistan. Russia also offered to discuss sending military assistance to a future interim government. China maintained contact with the Taliban and the Afghan government throughout the peace process, and stood by its offer to mediate between the two sides, according to press reporting. 
What is highlighted in yellow is highly significant and reflects not only Russia's concern, understandable, with the matter at hand, namely Talibanization of Afghanistan, and Taliban is officially declared in Russia a terrorist organization, but it also has a lot to do with... ISIS. Russia believes (not without justification) that the United States is supporting ISIS through a number of her proxies in Syria and transported, on a number of occasions throughout the years, some big ISIS honchos to Afghanistan away from Russia's smart munitions and SSOs in Syria. This is a serious matter, knowing America's history with being in cahoots with the most despicable elements among jihadists, not least with those "moral equivalents of America's founding fathers" in Afghanistan which was destabilized (what's new) under the supervision of late Zbig in 1970s. Same pattern is repeated in Syria, plus knowing that there is a lot of butt-hurt and many sore losers among US "elites", destabilizing Eurasian subcontinent, not far from Russia and China, seems like a logical conclusion for them. If it takes most vicious terrorists, why not?

Russia once, in 2000, provided a serious military assistance to Northern Alliance, so, for Russia it is only natural to help out to whatever least bat shit crazy interim government may emerge in Afghanistan (hope dies last, you know), because, unlike with the United States, the principle of "better to fight them there, than here" applies fully. Such is the fate of continental powers which have a world view different from such power, a world island, as the United States. So, expect a flow of weapons and advisers once ISIS will raise its ugly head in Afghanistan and everything points out to this development, despite all those upbeat points about ANDSF which WILL disintegrate the moment the United States leaves Afghanistan. In other words, there is a lot of excrement ready to hit the fan in Afghanistan and around, plus, who can forget a required massive effort domestically in turning humiliating defeat into some sort of a "victory" for America against those, you know, bearded dudes in sandals with old Kalashnikovs and RPGs roaming Hindu-Kush mountains. Boy, are we in for a show, granted the whole damn thing doesn't collapse completely, which is probable, and the US will need to simply leave, deal or no deal. 

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