Thursday, March 5, 2020

Entirely Predicable.

As was expected and predicted, a new truce in Idlib was agreed upon by Russia and Turkey and it couldn't have been otherwise.  
I will remind you, all my online buddies and readers, again, through Deng Xiaoping's rephrasing of Clausewitz' dictum: "diplomacy is a continuation of the war by other means". You win on a battlefield, you get more at the diplomatic table, period. SAA in the last couple of weeks, granted with some help from Russia's VKS and SSO, handed Turkey its ass on a platter, showing that Arabs, after all, can do combined arms operations and SAA definitely dispels this long living (and often justified) stereotype that Arabs cannot fight modern war. Syrian Arab Army sure as hell learned a lot and, hopefully, when all this will be over, I cannot imagine how many Syria's heroes and military leaders will have, justly so, monuments erected in their honor. 

Erdogan could not, as some "experts" predicted, "dictate" anything to Putin for a simple reason--Russia has a damn good satellite constellation and SIGINT capabilities and can, and most likely did, point to Erdogan when, how and how many of his troops joined forces with Al-Qaeda outlets, thus also stating not only the obvious fact that Sultan is directly culpable in supporting Islamic Jihad, but also was given a description of what kind of casualties Turkish Army (nobody counts jihadists) will sustain if it continues to do what it did in the last couple of weeks. As I state non-stop for a long-long time, often contradicting even real Russian experts, who, actually MUST know better, Russia's first salvo of stand-off weapons would be enough to completely "switch off" Command and Control structure of a corps size force. Simple as that. All this even before any Russian VKS aircraft get busy blowing the shit out of those who think that they are smarter than everybody else. So, it is good that deescalation was agreed upon, let's see now how Erdogan will deal with the reality of his XXI century version of Ottoman Empire going down in flames. In the end, it is, indeed, only up to Syrians alone to decide what to do with their country.   

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