Thursday, March 1, 2018

It Is Official And It Is Over.

While the whole Western media are shaking (incompetence will do this to one) in their boots from Vladimir Putin's address, where he demonstrated, among many things, new RS-28 Sarmat ballistic missile, behind that revolutionary weapon system, one was almost completely ignored by media. Again, "education" based on catch phrases (such a "nuclear weapon) will do this to one. By far most shocking (albeit inevitable) revelation was deployment of a new hyper-sonic missile Kinzhal (Dagger) to regular service with front line Air Force units in Southern Military District. Mig-31 carries this weapon, I am positive any SU-35 or SU-30SM or SU-34 will be able to do it too. Here is a video and CGI simulation. 

The missile is... well, for the lack of better word, is stunning--it is M=10+ highly maneuverable missile with the range of 2000 kilometers. The naval warfare as we know it is over. Without any overly-dramatic emphasis--we are officially in new era. No, I repeat, NO, modern or perspective air-defense system deployed today by any NATO fleet can intercept even a single missile with such characteristics. The salvo of 5-6 of such missiles is a guaranteed destruction of any Carrier Battle Group. 

The mode of use of such weapon, especially since we know now that it is deployed (for now) in Southern Military District is very simple--the most likely missile drop spot by MiG-31s will be international waters of the Black Sea, thus closing off whole Eastern Mediterranean to any surface ship or group of ships. It also creates a massive no-go zone in the Pacific, where MiG-31s from Yelizovo will be able to patrol vast distances over the ocean. It is, though, remarkable that the current platform for Kinzhal is MiG-31--arguably the best interceptor in the history. Obviously, MiG-31's ability to reach very high supersonic speeds (in excess of M=3) is a key factor in the launch. But no matter what are the procedures for the launch of this terrifying weapon, the conclusions are simple:

1. It moves aircraft carriers into the niche of pure power projection against weak and defenseless adversaries;
2. It makes classic CBGs as main strike force against peer completely obsolete and useless, it also makes any surface combat ship defenseless regardless its air-defense capabilities. 
3. Sea Control and Sea Denial change their nature and merge. Those who have such weapon, or weapons, simply own vast spaces of the sea limited by the ranges of Kinzhal and its carriers. 

I don't want to sound dramatic and I knew that there were and are always surprises in Soviet/Russian weapons but today's revelations from the highest podium in Russia about Kinzhal were shocking. The balance of power just shifted dramatically, with it the naval warfare as we knew it is no more. It is OVER!  

UPDATE: Is it beginning to sink?  

A thoroughly neocon and "exceptionalist" rag Foreign Policy suddenly posted, still bile and delusions-filled, but less insane piece titled with precisely the message Putin was trying to deliver globally to the world:

Putin’s Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile Is Bigger Than Trump’s.There’s no point in competing with Russia’s new trove of bizarre doomsday devices.

While US "Intelligence Community" may state whatever they want, the issue is not even "bizarrness" of these weapons--in fact, there is nothing bizarre about them at all. The issue is that the United States currently has nothing comparable to this technology and the main, and I quote, message of Putin was:
 You didn't want to listen to us in 2004, now listen to us now.
And yes, Mr. Jeffrey Lewis, it is not just about nuclear weapons--both Avangard and Kinzhal are perfectly capable of conventional munitions. In fact, that is what they primarily are. But then again, I doubt anyone among US mainstream Russia "experts" read 2014 Russia's Military Doctrine and what is stated there in terms of  Conventional Strategic Containment.

In related news, Gazprom started the procedure of annulment of all gas delivery and transit contracts with Ukraine. It is over. Isn't it strange how many times I used the word over in the last 48 hours?

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