Blank Is...Well, Blank

It would have been a complete LOL if it wouldn't have been so pathetic and dangerous. American Russian "studies" field (that is mostly collection of amateurs with all kinds of useless Ph.D degrees in history and political "science") is in despair. It hates Russian guts so much that it did descend into a complete madness. Here is the guy who is, supposedly, a Russian "scholar", moreover he taught Russian/Soviet whatever BS is taught there in US Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. His name is Dr. Stephen Blank. Now get what this guy, who has all those "national security studies" Ph.Ds, offers in his hysterical piece at, where else, Atlantic Council. I quote:

The limits to Russia’s capacity for military escalation are actually becoming clearer. The situation calls for continuing and extending those costs, while leaving the door open for serious negotiation when Moscow is truly ready.In practice this means that Washington should send US Navy warships into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait to demonstrate our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and integrity and the freedom of navigation on the seas, which has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy since 1789. (This is similar to what the United States is doing in the South China Sea.) And NATO should do the same thing. Another way to impose costs on Russia is to give Ukraine the defensive weapons it needs and has requested to fight aggression. Not only is this in keeping with US policy since 1947, it also shows Putin and his cronies that he cannot redraw borders or disrespect the United States without paying the price. 

Obviously this "internationally renown" "professor" just made out of himself a complete moron (he, most likely, was the one to start with) since no sane person would suggest sending any serious combat ship into the Azov Sea whose deepest part is... 15 meters. While it's average depth is... 7 meters. For our "respected" scholar, who also managed to consult CIA throughout his "illustrious" career, the average draft of US Navy's  DDG of Arleigh Burke-class, a main surface combatant America has, is... drum roll... 9.3 meters. Obviously, it is not in fine tradition of an American "national security studies" to know what isobath is, but hey, they don't teach that there. I am sure if Mr. Blank will gather his will in one mighty fist he may even develop a "strategy" of deployment of US Navy's mighty carrier battle groups into Azov Sea--right under the nose of Russia's cruise missiles and Naval and Air Forces. So, my friends, the signs of a complete meltdown in American "intellectual" field are becoming overwhelming. It has to be stated that it was like this most of the post-WWII period, with some exceptions, of course. Now, in the world of free information exchange the imbecility and warmongering of US so called "elites" is being paraded globally, for everyone to see. Sheer incompetence, lack of academic and human culture, ignorant chauvinism, egos larger than cathedrals and a disastrous record in any field of the "national security studies" have become a defining feature of these "elites". Their academic and moral bankruptcy can not be hidden anymore. Luckily, real America, which does not reside in the dormitories of the large coastal liberal universities and in suburbia of large coastal cities, does understand what is going on. Will this America's voice be heard again as it was in November 2016? Meanwhile I would suggest Dr.Blank try himself in the field of open heart surgery or in quantum mechanics, I am sure he will excel there the same as he did in his Russian "studies". At least in open heart surgery he may kill only one unlucky person, as opposed to a nightmare he proposes in his insane piece--consequences then could be catastrophic for everyone on the planet.   

2017 Military Strength Ranking.

New, 2017, Global Military Strength Ranking has been published. You can read original here. Those who read this blog for some time know well that generally I treat all those rankings with a great deal of irony, if not outright sarcasm--most of all those ranking fail in the most important "metric" which is, of course, what for this military power. Without answering this question all those rankings are just the waste of time and energy. In the end, real professional considerations have been formulated not for once, including often quoted by me Admiral Stanfield Turner in his 1976 interview Who Has The Best Navy to CSM. But the deal is done and we may as well pay attention to such a ranking and I have an issue with the fact that Egypt's military power somehow ended sandwiched between Italy and Germany. As the Global Fire Power reports, Egypt has two aircraft carriers and for that, as site accountants profess, Egypt should get bonus points. Well, it is all fine and dandy except for one thing--Egypt doesn't have aircraft carriers. What Egypt has, and what passes there as "carriers", are two, thankfully never sold to Russia, glorified ferries of the Mistral-class which are anything but classic aircraft carriers in normal meaning of this word and are nothing more than Amphibious Assault Ships good only for disembarking some sort of a marines' force, granted, in case of Egyptian Mistrals, supported by very capable attack helicopters KA-52.  Moreover, even a brief overview of the Egyptian Navy shows that its submarine forces are 80% (4 out of 5 subs) consist of very good German submarines of  Type 209/1400, while surface fleet is, with the exception of a single French-built FREMM frigate and 4 Gowind-class corvettes, is of old and obsolete Western (mostly US Navy's second-hand) types. Now, even the brief look at Germany's Navy reveals that it is much newer in terms of ships than that of the Egypt. It also operates 6 state-of-the-art Type 212 subs which, considering a very good level of German submariners, can... well, let's put it this way, will have no problems sinking those two Egypt's "aircraft carriers". Italy's Navy, meanwhile, has two genuine STOVL carriers which, unlike Mistrals, carry actual fixed wing aircraft. But in general, I would not rate nations which do not manufacture own weapon systems very high in such ratings. Both Germany and Italy they do produce many of those indigenous domestic and in cooperation weapon systems. This is absolutely not the case with Egypt which is almost entirely dependent on external supply of weapons.  

GFP

 So yes, I do have issues with such rankings, or, rather, criteria. But then again, I use this enclosed technological cycle argument non-stop. In other words, do not put too much faith in such rankings, indexes, what have you--they do not reflect most important metric which is the ability to conduct complex and sustained operations. Of course those operations must rest on a solid real economy base and in this sense Global Fire Power does much better job than very many other indexes but still, as I wrote in a whole series of my posts on Military Power, much more goes into it than mere material things, however important they are. In general, presence of any Arab military near the top of such lists (rankings) is always questionable. After all, Saudis have military budget in absolute dollar amount only $6 billion less than military budget of Russia, Saudis also have a lot of expensive military toys but nobody in their own mind will compare militarily (or firepower-wise) Russia and Saudi Arabia. But, of course, 35th place of Ukraine, which, in accordance to its President, has the strongest Army in Europe. After all, it has to be--to fight for three plus years those damn Russkies and not allow them to capture Kiev--one has to be really good. So, sure, and I am, meanwhile, Elvis Presley.

 

Were Yes Prescient? Yes!

Justice to the left of you
Justice to the right
Speak when you are spoken to
But don't pretend you're right

This life's not for living
It's for fighting and for wars
No matter what the truth is
Hold on to what is yours

Jigsaw puzzle traitors
Sent to spill the beans
Constitution screw up
Shattering the dreams

 

Just Signed The Contract.

Again, sorry for slowdown but I was (and still am) up to my ears in trying to meet deadlines, all kinds of them, but there are some good news. I just finally signed the contract for the book with publishing house and, granted I am still alive by then, I should be able to finish most of manuscript in a couple-three months. A lot of it is done already. So, I'll try my best to be as entertaining as humanly possible under such conditions plus United States Naval Institute informed me that my new large post should be in their Blog by Monday. So, for observers of naval and, in general, military affairs there will be some food for thought. Strategic thought too. I am running on empty this week and apart from desirable cigar on my porch today I may even get to the memory lane. Ah, dancing with my future wife on a dance floor at our naval academy "discotheque" sometime in 1983. Come on, I also have feelings, you know;-) Anyhow, enjoy a wonderful song by Kim Carnes. How many of those contemporary "stars" can write anything comparable.   

 

Sorry For Slowdown

I apologize for not being active in the past week or so, but I am busting my butt in trying to meet a deadline for one publishing house which asked me to present couple more chapters of my book and I am obliging. They seem to be genuinely interested. I will, of course, inform on this ordeal, if it ever ends. My next rather large piece should be in US Naval Institute Blog (guess from three times what it will be about--it starts from aircr...;) this coming week. So, yes--I am not dead yet. For the rest, instead of Friday, I do Saturday's venturing into what truly was good and worthy and it calls for talking to my friend Jim Beam and a lady called Tatiana (vanilla flavor, of course). It just never gets old. For a generation of 1970s and high school dances (named discotheques--it was cooler this way)--how many first kisses or, for that matter, virginities lost, to this timeless masterpiece. Just to give you an impression--it was this new year 2017 celebration in our house. We put this in the living room (I have some powerful stereo) and here it was a bunch of us from USA, Russia, Ukraine dancing with each other and then, doing one of the best collective air-guitar performance of all time, to Joe Walsh's genius transcendental solo. While writing the book, it occurred to me--we are what we all hold dear.

Daniel Larison Delivers, Almost.

Daniel Larison is not going to publish my comments to his articles--and that is OK--I understand an emotional struggle of the person and American patriot when faced with the fact that US foreign, so called, "policy" does not exist as a coherent and competent set of objectives. Or that the US foreign policy establishment is mostly a bunch of badly educated (not to be mistaken with "degrees") hacks--nobody is going to like that, especially coming from some Russian dude. Yet, today, on the 9th anniversary of Russo-Georgian War of 08-08-08, he definitely almost nailed it in appropriate tone and substance. 

Will Ruger noticed that Pence repeated the pledge to bring Georgia into NATO during his visit there last week:

Pence stated, “President Trump and the United States stand firmly behind the 2008 NATO Bucharest statement which made it clear that Georgia will, someday, become a member.”

Since this week marks the ninth anniversary of the August 2008 war, it is worth remembering that the commitment made at the Bucharest summit earlier that year significantly added to the tensions between Russia and Georgia. If it had been up to George W. Bush, Georgia and Ukraine would have both received Membership Action Plans, but even the promise of future membership was dangerously provocative. Promising that Georgia would one day become a member of the alliance alarmed Moscow and gave false encouragement to the Georgian government.

Combined with other expressions of U.S. support for Georgia during the Bush years, this commitment by the alliance led then-President Saakashvili to believe that the U.S. and other Western powers would come to Georgia’s aid in the event of a conflict. He recklessly escalated the low-level conflict in South Ossetia and triggered a war with Russia by shelling Tskhinvali, where Russian troops were stationed in a supposed “peacekeeping” role. That attack provided Russia with the pretext to invade. The rhetorical support for Georgia proved to be meaningless, and the war drove home how big of a liability Georgia would be as an ally.

As a result of the war, Russia recognized the independence of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thus making their reintegration into Georgia much less likely than it was before the war. If Georgia’s NATO aspirations were fanciful before the 2008 war, they became preposterous after it. Reviving talk of Georgia’s future NATO membership today is irresponsible and dangerous. It is also cruel to keep giving Georgia more false encouragement that it will be able to join the alliance at some point. It isn’t going to happen, and it does no one any good to keep pretending otherwise.

This is also how American foreign policy real realism should sound (or read). Even if to discount a jab at real Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia--once one remembers what Georgians did to Ossetians in 1991-92, including ethnic cleansing--one will lose any desire for trying to be "cute" or be a "supposed expert". But as it is, this piece is good enough, especially in pointing out a huge role the US played in unleashing that war (have this war had anything to do with John "We are all Georgians now" McCain's campaign of 2008? Wink-wink)--the fact long ago denied by "establishment". E.g. Condi Rice, in fact, insisted that she warned Saakashvili not to make any stupid moves. 

But that war had other huge meaning--it showed how serious combined arms operations never went away, it also gave some glimpse of Russia's military might which simply, for all problems of Russian Armed Forces then, obliterated Georgian Army in less than 5 days. It also drew the first red line for the US and many didn't like it--the countdown to a massive global power re-balancing began then. Well, to be more precise, from Putin's Munich speech, but close enough--two events are actually closely related. 

Why Poland Is In The Dead End Already.

I already made several references to Poland in my blog and, of course, who would miss out on such characters as Poland's Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz, who is now suspected in Poland to be... Putin's agent. Reminds something? In some sense Poland is coming through what the United States is doing now--a complete breakdown of mental health, be it in a form of considering demanding of reparations from Germany for WW II or being driven completely mad by traditional Polish Russophobia. Nothing really new here about Poland who, certainly, in terms of insane rhetoric punches way above her weight, while in reality remaining a middle-of-the-road European nation which due to her dramatic de-industrialization has very little to offer to the master other than rabid hatred towards everything Russian and... German. 

I would have let it slide, in the end, Poland is of any interest to anyone in Europe only as a main supplier of plumbers and as a main geographic and political obstacle (or mole for the US, depends on POV) for Russo-German energy link by means of Nord Stream 2. But what I saw today stunned me.

 

This is the photo from August 1 match of FC Legia Warsaw against Kazakhstan's FC Astana in a qualifier for UEFA's Champions League. Yes, my friends, this is how Poles (at least on Legia's stadium) see it appropriate to commemorate the start of Warsaw Uprising in which 160 000 Poles died, including many children. 

You see, guys, Poland always have to remind everyone that she is exceptional and she is especially exceptional towards Germany (and Russia, of course). Never mind that today's Germany has absolutely nothing in common with the Third Reich and, actually, relinquished a rather juicy parts of its territory in 1945 to Polish state. But the main question here is propriety. I remember imbecile Korean fans during 2002 World Cup rooting against German national team by emulating Nazis. FFS, people, give it a rest--modern Germany is a completely emasculated nation (other than former Eastern Part, where actual Germanness was largely preserved) which, while powerful economically, only begins to remotely recall that she has her actual legitimate economic interests. One of those interests is, of course, affordable gas from Russia. This interest is in a direct contradiction with US interests in Europe. Poland helps US to promote US interests in Europe by sabotaging energy projects. If it takes to do it in such tasteless, in fact into your face disgusting manner, in a place which supposed to be a celebration of a beautiful game--nothing is too low for Poland. 

I wonder if Israeli clubs should put out the Holocaust banners during their games, or, why not FC Zenit St.Petersburg fans exhibit horrifying images of Leningrad's Siege--seems only natural, doesn't it? What can possibly reflect the spirit of UEFA--the organization which embodies European spirit of unity and love for the game--than pictures of, say, FC Dynamo Dresden fans unrolling the banner of the bombed into fiery rabble in February 1945 Dresden, with burned bodies? It is a very notable date in WW II history, so why not? But they will not do that for a simple human reason of it being totally inappropriate and being out of place--otherwise, Russian football clubs' fans could have been parading the banners with images of innumerable atrocities Axis committed in USSR. Russians sure as hell have a lot of memories of that. But never mind, Russians never forgot but long ago forgave Germany, especially Germany whose main danger today comes from the spread of the cultural "values" which can only be termed, for the lack of better word, suicidal. There is no need to go around reminding German people about their guilt--none of those who perpetuated atrocities are alive today. But current geopolitical situation dictates new measures and Poland is only too happy to oblige. Damn the propriety and any remnants of human decency.

American Modern Art At Its Finest.

Feeling bad, down? Dire Straits' The Telegraph Road in your head? The Friday at Smoothie's Blog (I kid, I kid)? Well, apart from superb music, the video shows places I've been many times to, or very similar ones. I know how desperation looks and feels like--I know American West really... not bad. I, for some reason, never was attracted to the glitz of big cities, I always preferred back roads' diners, not an exquisite cuisine. I never will be able to live in Canada (despite loving her magnificent nature)--they are not big of Chicken Fried Steak--I have to have those. Yet, as always blues makes it all come together very nicely, especially when played by Joe Bonamassa. 

Blues is eternal...So is American desperation (yes, I almost stole it from Pink Floyd).

So, Will Donbass Forces Get Iskanders?

As NBC reports, Pentagon insists on providing Kiev's junta with $50 million worth of Javelins. As report says:

 The most common Russian tank is the T-90, according to Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, a conservative think tank. The Javelin attacks tanks from above, one of the most vulnerable spots of the tank, he explained, adding that other shoulder-fired weapons like an RPG could not take out a Russian tank. Thompson warned that providing lethal weapons to Ukraine — a country "on Russia's doorstep" — is not without peril for the U.S. "What would we think if the Russians were arming Mexico?" he asked. "This could potentially spark a wider war."

Really? Why so? After all, judging by Pentagon's "successes" of the last 17+ years, strategic thinking and calculating consequences of the actions is not really its strong point. But the issue here is completely different and it reminds me a good contemporary anecdote about Ukrainian nationalism:  

Son: Hey, Dad, let's go and kill some Moskalis (Russians)? 
Dad: Sure, but what if they kill us? 
Son: Us? What for? 

I guess this is the level of the strategic "thinking" of people (be them from CIA or Pentagon) who still think that they can get away with it. Like in Iraq. Or Afghanistan. But, after all, who said that it takes too long to train Iskander combat teams to launch? I kid, I kid.

Former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin, an NBC News analyst, said that the Russians had "earned" the U.S. aid to Ukraine, "but will see it as an escalation even though it poses no immediate danger to their forces given the disposition of the two sides and the nature of the current skirmishing." "The U.S. should portray this as an enhancement of Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and part of the deal with Kiev should be that they not use the Javelins to provoke fighting but instead hold onto them for a contingency in which Russia actually uses armor to extend its invasion — which it has not been doing lately."

I applaud John McLaughlin's "analysis" since Russia sure as hell can "portray" a transfer of some really cool tech to LDNR forces as "an enhancement of Donbass defense capabilities." In the end, LDNR forces also can "hold on" to Iskanders, or some serious other toys, for a contingency Kiev "actually uses armor to extend its invasion" into Donbass.  But mocking bird exchange apart. All these last moves in Washington (including Russia sanctions) are signs of a real desperation and it all testifies to a growing burden of internal problems and rot inside the Beltway. Considering a level of utter ignorance of US "political elites" about real war and what it can bring, all this can only be driven by sheer insanity. Come to think about it, it is exactly the main driving force behind US obvious decline. Now, one can understand the reason for a slimy stream of accusations against Russia in alleged "arming" of Taliban.  But hey, you get where it is all going, right? One might as well start living up to a reputation. But I don't think this is going to happen. For starters, for all his flaws, President Trump is a sane person (unlike many in his cabinet) and this could be his next test. We'll see. But I would suggest James Mattis read up a bit on Russia's military history--may come handy. After all, he doesn't know what is it to defend his home.

Don't Thank Congress.

President Trump "thanked" US Congress for its role in bringing "US-Russia relations at all-time & dangerous low".  Well, it is all fine and dandy but by now it should be absolutely clear to US President that US Congress, whose approval rating consistently hovers at below 20%, is not really a legislative body designed to represent interests of average citizens. Far from it, US Congress is there to finish off what's left of the myth of American "democracy". In fact, the prefix "US" has to be removed from the title of "Congress" because real American interests, that are the interests of the majority of American people, are the least of the concerns of this body of professional "self-electors". The filial of Knesset? Sure! Military-Industrial Complex puppets? Absolutely! Bunch of corrupt (with some notable but few exceptions, of course) to the core ignoramuses? Undeniably so, but not "US".

Now that Donald Trump lost his most important battle so far (no, it is not about Russia's sanctions, it is about Executive Branch conduct of US foreign policy) and was stripped of powers he was elected to exercise, we need to talk about... Putin. It is clear that he is not against, however timid, EU's (Germany's mostly) attempts to regain a semblance of national sovereignty. Germany, through Brussels, made her voice heard on sanctions "prescribed" by H.R. 3664, which under the pretext of countering a truck load of America's "enemies", made sure that the number of those may grow significantly. But Europeans here are secondary players in all of this game. If US really wants to, she will be able to coerce Europe in buying American LNG (for a much larger price than natural gas from Russia) and Europe will oblige--being denied, both out of its own will and by coercion, of political subjectivity for decades can not be overcome easily and in a short period of time. EU "elites" are really a pathetic bunch and are not equipped with necessary mental faculties to formulate a viable policy in any field which matters. 

But for Putin these sanctions are a great chance, in a face of open US hostility which now, for all intents and purposes, is a new Cold War (some want it hot in D.C.) and with US ruling class fractured and at the peak (or bottom, depends on POV) of its incompetence, to finally do away with liberal Parnassus in Russia by means of removing "chicks of Gaidar's nest", starting with Russia's pathetic Prime Minister Medvedev, from any power positions which allow to formulate any kind of policy. The "pushing" of all the right buttons in Medvedev's statement on US sanctions is a good indication of him understanding the danger which current situation puts him in. In the end, Putin is already running his election campaign and removing Russia's "liberals" (in reality full blown fifth column) from formulating economic policies will answer both sotto voce and, sometimes, loud open calls to remove this "market" cabal from Russia's economic levers. Will Putin, who still has an astounding 83% approval rating, finally hear it? I, certainly, wouldn't go as far as Prohanov who warns of a possible collusion between "liberals" and oligarchs in order to remove Putin--while possible, I don't think that such contingency is highly probable--but more radical reversal of economic policies of 1990s is definitely needed and Putin still does face one of the most important issues of Russia's 20th century history--most (not all) of Russian oligarchy are thieves who literally have stolen from the nation. While Putin made several statements to the effect that results of 1990s "privatization" will not be reversed, my feel is that he understands that he will have to address this issue at some point of time.  

But as of now--it is as good time as any to get pop-corn out and see, sometimes with pain, sometimes with amusement, how a bunch of morons in some Congress in D.C. just created America's worst case scenario with Russia and China all but becoming a full fledged allies (once Power of Siberia is launched in 2019, Europe can go to hell), with Iran now, inevitably, moving closer to this alliance. Talk about shooting oneself in a foot--but that was my position from the inception of this blog: the level of ignorance about outside world in D.C. is unbelievable and is clear and present danger to real American interests in staying much relevant and important major power in emerging new world geopolitical and economic order.   

In related news, Poland being Poland now demands huge reparations from Germany for WW II. Oh, gee-whiz, same old "players"!  And why I am not surprised that this is Poland, and, indeed, who else!? Will Brussels cut Poland's subsidies, which allowed her to think that she became a facade for East European post-Soviet "occupation" relative prosperity completely on her own? We'll see, but something tells me that Berlin has some own accounts to settle with Poland (whose main "argument" is influential US Polish diaspora) and... Russia may actually back Berlin up. Remarkably, at this stage both US and Poland are perfect cases for failing to learn anything from history. But about this--later.