Friday, November 27, 2015

Payback Time

This is how the start of the payback looks like and Turkish operatives (and units) operating in the border, so called Turkmen (NO relation whatsoever to Turkmenistan, former Soviet Republic) areas, should take a note. Those who survived. 

 Now to the subject matter:

1. Judging by the erratic, bordering on outright hysteria, filled with blatant lies and contradictions, statements by Erdogan in the last 72 hours (I wonder if Davutoglu is already seeing himself as a De-jure, not just De-facto, caliph), the process of facing the gravity of the Turkish provocation has began, sort of, in Ankara. The first indication is the fact that "suddenly" Turkish "heroic" Air Force realized the difference between Turkish and Syrian air space. And in Turkish air space it should remain if it doesn't want to really become "martyrs". Needless to say, that most of the statements coming from Erdogan are, traditionally, filled with characteristic for the area poetic hyperbole, exaggerations and...well...BS. Anything to evoke any response from Putin. Good luck with that.   

2. Now to a stinky business. All those, predominantly Western media, which propagated the so called Turkish record of "warnings" to Russian SU-24 were propagating....drum roll...a complete BS.  Russian military attache in Ankara did visit Turkey's General Staff to obtain any materials re: Turkish cowardly action and was told that NO such materials exist. I stated many times, I will reiterate again--West DOES NOT have respected media other than some independent (and mostly fringe) outlets and all those "journalists" and "experts" from HuffPro, FOX, CNN or WaPo (and NYT) should concentrate on what they are only qualified for--reporting on Hollywood starlets' lingerie, LGBT issues, maybe criminal issues and, of course, sucking cock of their masters. The vaunted "free speech" is DEAD. Today it is nothing more than propaganda and gossip. 

3. As was predicted, nothing of substance came out of Hollande's visit to Moscow. Of course, there were smiles and promises of "tight" cooperation but, as I already stated many times, France does not have subjectivity in foreign policy. Once proud nation is a toy and the only role Hollande can play here is that of a messenger. Until big boys settle some key issues, nothing will come out of this vaunted "coalition". Obama's fragile ego and detachment from the reality, coupled with his Administration's infestation with neocon psychopaths, prevents any possibility of any settlement. Russia remains the main factor and burden carrier in fighting ISIS. Yet, France still may play an important role if the question of the ground force will arise seriously. As of now, however, this issue remains, as it should, on the back-burner for a number of reasons:

a) ISIS in itself is not some magical awesome fighting force. Depending on the possible deployment configuration of the ground troops and with Russia's and NATO's air power preponderance, the task of crushing ISIS as military force is not that difficult. Mopping up could, indeed, be left to Syrian Army and Iranians. It is a matter of a logistics and that is where Turkey enters the equation.

b) Will Turkey stay out? Judging by the latest developments it is run by lunatics and in this case Turkey's sabotage or even entrance into the war on ISIS behalf can change the calculus completely. Is Turkey (rather Erdogan's regime) capable of suicide? Absolutely.

c) Bashar Assad. He should have been listed under the pp. "a". Russia is not going to betray its ally, so, make your calculations. This juncture automatically leads us into the much larger framework of global power realignment and the way US currently sees itself. The way US sees itself is distorted to such a degree that this vision prevents the US from properly forecasting or anticipating just about any move by anybody. The proof of that is in the open since 2008. Well, actually, since 2003. Chalabi syndrome afflicted US elites too seriously to be resolved by the present generation of American politicians. With minor exceptions, current American power elites ARE NOT treaty-worthy.  

Finally. Can Russia and Turkey clash? Yes, they can. But now I am not going to speculate on this issue. I am more interested in the possible number of 671RTMK submarines on combat patrol in Mediterranean;-)


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