Open Thread.

Go at it!

My Talking Head On Naval Doctrine...

... and what it is based on. 

Same ol', same ol' real economy.
 

US "Academe", Good Grief.

These two guys should really flush their Ph.Ds in government and history down the toilet because their academic background is as worthless as the Ph.D in plumbing, with that difference that plumbing is a useful, in fact crucial, skill while what these two credentialed clowns preach is a sentence to all US "humanities" education. I would suggest to them to attend nearest community college and take precalc classes and maybe learn some basic facts about warfare--no operational theory, weapon design or wartime economy, no, nothing complex like that--just common facts and while at it they better revisit the Kubler-Ross model and learn to control their emotions. 

The Myth of Multipolarity. American Power’s Staying Power

The whole thing is a pseudo-academic delirium but look at what these two "experts" use as data, LOL))

That is true no matter which metric one uses. Polarity is often still measured using the indicators fashionable in the mid-twentieth century, chiefly military outlays and economic output. Even by those crude measures, however, the system is not multipolar, and it is a sure bet that it won’t be for many decades. A simple tabulation makes this clear: barring an outright collapse of either the United States or China, the gap between those countries and any of the also-rans will not close anytime soon. All but India are too small in population to ever be in the same league, while India is too poor; it cannot possibly attain this status until much later in this century.  

LOL)) These guys are sure innovators in terms of cooking books. I have news for these two sore losers--it matters critically what metrics one uses, but for this academic sinecure abusers it is an unknown quantity because they never attained any skills dealing with tangibles such as productive economy, real warfare and earning, in the end, an honest buck doing something useful instead of packaging illiterate BS into shiny big words platitudes.  But these two do not stop here, they go into the field in which they have not just zero but negative understanding.
 

But they did confirm my increasingly assertive thesis that most of graduates of Western "elite", or US Ivy League, degree mills with NON-STEM backgrounds (and even there one has to be very cautious) are primarily academic frauds unfit for any serious professional or research occupation. But they, and those cretins who published this malarkey in CFR's rag Foreign Affairs, already lost any pretense of having any not just academic--they never had one--but at least basic human decorum which hides the true nature of the man for a while. But they continue to wax "military". 

Militarily, meanwhile, most analysts still see China as far from being a global peer of the United States, despite the rapid modernization of Chinese forces. How significant and lasting is the U.S. advantage? Consider the capabilities that give the United States what the political scientist Barry Posen has called “command of the commons”—that is, control over the air, the open sea, and space. Command of the commons is what makes the United States a true global military power. Until China can contest the United States’ dominance in this domain, it will remain merely a regional military power. We have counted 13 categories of systems as underlying this ability—everything from nuclear submarines to satellites to aircraft carriers to heavy transport planes—and China is below 20 percent of the U.S. level in all but five of these capabilities, and in only two areas (cruisers and destroyers; military satellites) does China have more than a third of the U.S. capability. The United States remains so far ahead because it has devoted immense resources to developing these systems over many decades; closing these gaps would also require decades of effort. The disparity becomes even greater when one moves beyond a raw count and factors in quality. The United States’ 68 nuclear submarines, for example, are too quiet for China to track, whereas China’s 12 nuclear submarines remain noisy enough for the U.S. Navy’s advanced antisubmarine warfare sensors to track them in deep water.

Somebody explain to them, that the US ground forces are no peers to China, let alone Russia and have an astounding record of losses to the most subpar technologically but much shrewder strategically and stronger willed enemy. Plus, how can you explain to these people that they should stay away from military affairs in which they have zero background, especially in combined arms, and especially with the military which hasn't faced it since 1950. I understand their desperation, but even correctly stated advantages of the US Navy over PLAN will be offset by Russia transferring some of the most advanced military technologies of which the US can only dream about. But in the end, this pseudo-academic BS published by these two discloses something very peculiar for all their Ph.Ds (useless as they are) credentials--it is the lack of class and real culture. One can be a patriot but avoid a laughable, if not utterly embarrassing, confabulations and myth-mongering, and can, in fact it is mandated for real Patriots, face problems and challenges their nation faces in all their severity. But due to these two being a defective product of US education system the only thing they have going for them is blind chauvinism and Karen-type sense of entitlement and exceptionalism, not understanding that they paraded themselves as a freak show from Barnum Circus. They surely dispelled the myth of US intellectual "elites" being intellectual.

Larry About "Counter-Offensive" And Other Items.

Larry wrote an excellent piece about never-ending promises of VSU's "counter-offensive". 

Even If Ukraine is able to scrounge up troops and vehicles that surpass anything the Russians have in place on the front-lines in the Donbass (a dubious assumption), it still lacks the artillery, air support, logistics and ammunition to sustain such an attack. How do I know? Very simple. Just look at how Ukraine currently is performing in Bakhmut, Ugledar, and Avdevka. In every case, Ukrainian forces are retreating, albeit slowly, rather than blunting the Russian offensive. The following image (taken from liveuamap.com, a pro-Ukrainian site) shows the harrowing situation the Ukrainian troops confront.

Exactly. This proverbial "Required Force" (Наряд Сил) which is counted not as mere quantities, however important, but as forces acting against other forces through not just numbers, but combat effectiveness. As I pointed out many times before--even at the start of SMO one could see what modern army can do in mobile defense while being outnumbered several fold. This too is being studied by serious military and intel professionals and Russian Army taught a serious lesson in this matter to anyone who were watching. 

Now, the situation is reversed and Russia, after annihilating several iterations of VSU, is simply waiting for the remainder of NATO run forces to impale themselves and then... we'll see. Which brings us to these two French Nazis who executed Russian POWs. These two cowards have been apprehended in France upon their return but on unrelated charges connected with arms deals--they face up to 15 months in prison. France doesn't care about executed Russian POWs. Russians, however, do and Investigative Committee is on it and at first legal ways will be tried. Paris, as always, will decline and will expose itself, yet again, as a poodle of globalists, and then Plan B may go into effect. Meanwhile Nazi sympathizers in WaPo sing praises to Azov and other Nazi formations in 404. So, you get the idea. 

In related news, though, is a video totally in Russian (but you don't need a translation), which shows the work at Ulyanovsk Aerocomposit. Text in itself can be distilled into this: everything you see in the video is Russian-made, from carbon fiber, resins, paints, instruments, even tape-laying machines--all of it Russian-made. 

They show current work on four kits for serial MC-21 composite wings (I assume wing-to-body assembly is also done there) and this is just one of many plants Russia built literally from Ground Zero starting from 2016-2017. And this is just one example of import substitution in a full swing among numerous ones. This is happening across the whole spectrum of productive industries and it is difficult to describe the whole scale of it because how massive it is. 

Meanwhile, "strategirists" from London's own The Economist still wet dreaming on how to defeat those nasty Russkies and they found a new wunderwaffe in Swedish Gripen. 

Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war. There is a dogfight between Swedish Gripens and American F-16s.

This kindergarten level delirium from globalist sewer is expected because you cannot explain to any graduate of Oxford with degree in journalism and economics what modern integrated aerospace force is--they don't have the tool kit for that. Not to mention the fact that modern RAF is rather pathetic third rate force barely able to keep anything flying at all, not to mention being dependent on bankrupt American air war doctrine and procurement policy built around stuffing "Allies" with lame duck weapon systems such as F-35 and, while still relevant, but not survivable modern battlefield, F-16. But in the end, the question persists--where did those meaningless words' jugglers see Ukraine's "top guns"? I have news for them--Ukraine has none, all of them have been shot down and what Ukie AF has today as pilots are dead men walking because their "top gunning" is usually limited to a half mission. The half being the take off, landing being substituted with receiving R-33, R-37 or 40N6E into the empennage and then bailing out in case they survive.  

But behind those wet dreams of European midgets such as France or UK, hides not only a desperation from evaporating self-awareness as once, long time ago, great powers, which none European country is anymore, but a sheer, astounding illiteracy of their elites who literally have no clue, even when allowed for spewing propaganda. But even in this they fail because they are so UNeducated--a death sentence for the most "elite producing" machines in the combined West. This is the tragedy which is not into your face unlike histrionics of once PM BoJo or childish unsure posture of the French boy Macron, not to mention a pathetic spectacle of senior citizen abuse in Washington. No, the tragedy is in West's "elite" educational institutions producing consistently ignorant and illiterate people who are utterly unqualified to be engaged in any serious professional activity. That is why they continue to delude themselves thinking that 30-40 Gripens will make any difference in 404. But you cannot educate them, so let them dream.

Something Is Rotten In The State Of...

 ... South Carolina, LOL))

WASHINGTON — At a time when many Americans, and some of the legislators who represent them in Washington, are growing weary of supporting the defense of Ukraine, a new bipartisan House resolution to be introduced Tuesday calls on the United States to support an outright victory over Russia. “We must not repeat the error of Sept. 1, 1939,” the resolution’s chief sponsor, Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., told Yahoo News, referencing Adolf Hitler’s invasion of Poland, which followed desperate efforts to appease Nazi Germany and prevent a second world war. Notably, the resolution, which requires review from the House Foreign Affairs Committee before a vote from the full chamber, “affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against the invasion and restored to its internationally recognized 1991 borders.”

It turns out they do grow them dumb in South Carolina. Enough to take a look at another fine product of S.C. political "discourse" such as this guy: 

In related news, there are exactly zero people in South Carolina who have a grasp of WW II real history and about the same number who have any expertise in modern combined arms warfare. So, rephrasing Lois Gossett jr.  only two things come from South Carolina--steers and queers (c). 

And we know majority of them ain't steers, if you know what I mean. I wonder how this JAG would do in real military academy and service? 

My Latest Talking Head.

Revisiting Gehlen Org and modern US. Medvedev gives the green light to Poland. 

Reminder: new Russian naval doctrine talks about (Russian equivalent) Sea Control. I was honored to write my endorsement for Roger Thompson's seminal work at his request: 

I have the original 2007 edition of this book. I cannot stress enough how important and prescient this book is. Together with Elmo Zumwalt's memoir On Watch and Baer's seminal One Hundred Years of Sea Power, Thompson's book is a MUST read for anyone who studies strategy seriously.

Speaking In Volumes.

Here is a video of a purely tactical nature, which shows a complete operational impotence of VSU and its NATO "advisers", because they never fought in their life in ISR environment which provides a real time tactical and operational awareness for Russia. US got used to doing this to some peasants armed with RPGs, but to be on the receiving end... Thus, it all becomes a suicide. 

As I repeat ad nauseam--this is not Russian rah-rah, this is the reality for which NATO forces simply are not ready and will not be ready for a very long time, if ever. As I stated, look at the performance of SU-57 in tandem with SU-35s--what we know, how much we don't know is a whole other story--but BVR air-to-air combat is now a mainstay for Russian Air Force and I wonder what would Maverick do against R-37 or R-33? I am sure Pentagon tries to learn from SMO, but it will not and I explained why for years. 

In related news, now Russians are openly mocking Biden's Admin. In Ria:

Байден заслужил второй срок в Белом доме

Translation: Biden Deserved Second Term in the White House. 

Read the whole piece (in Russian). Description of GOP is also on point--a collection of cowards working for dictatorship. Few exceptions here and there merely confirm the rule.

Enter T-14 Armata.

Officially, Russian Army started the combat use of newest tanks T-14 Armata against VSU positions. In the warm-up mode for now.

МОСКВА, 25 апр – РИА Новости. Вооруженные силы России начали применять новейшие танки Т-14 "Армата" для ведения огня по украинским позициям, сообщил РИА Новости информированный источник. "Российские войска начали применять новейшие танки "Армата" для ведения огня по украинским позициям. В прямых штурмовых действиях они пока не участвовали", - рассказал собеседник агентства.Он уточнил, что "танки Т-14 "Армата" в зоне СВО получили дополнительную защиту борта от противотанковых боеприпасов". Начиная с конца прошлого года экипажи Т-14 "Армата" проходили боевое слаживание на полигонах в одной из народных республик Донбасса, добавил источник. Впервые в боевых условиях танки "Армата" опробовали в Сирии. Основной танк Т-14 "Армата" разработан в Уральском конструкторском бюро транспортного машиностроения (входит в УВЗ). Особенность его компоновки — необитаемая башня, три члена экипажа находятся в изолированной бронекапсуле, расположенной в передней части корпуса. Танк имеет комбинированное многослойное бронирование, новую динамическую защиту "Малахит" и комплекс активной защиты "Афганит". Основное вооружение машины — 125-миллиметровая гладкоствольная пушка 2А82-1М, способная применять новые управляемые ракеты с дальностью восемь километров.

Translation:

MOSCOW, April 25 - RIA Novosti. The Russian Armed Forces have begun using the latest T-14 Armata tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions, an informed source told RIA Novosti. "Russian troops have begun to use the latest Armata tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions. They have not yet participated in direct assault operations," the source said. He specified that "T-14 Armata tanks in the NVO zone received additional protection side from anti-tank ammunition". Since the end of last year, the crews of the T-14 "Armata" have undergone combat coordination at training grounds in one of the people's republics of Donbass, the source added. For the first time in combat conditions, Armata tanks were tested in Syria. The main tank T-14 "Armata" was developed at the Ural Design Bureau of Transport Engineering (part of UVZ). The peculiarity of its layout is an uninhabited tower, three crew members are in an isolated armored capsule located in front of the hull. The tank has a combined multi-layer armor, a new dynamic protection "Malachite" and an active protection complex "Afganit". The main armament of the vehicle is a 125 mm 2A82-1M smoothbore gun capable of using new guided missiles with a range of eight kilometers.

Boy, military porn piles up with incredible speed as of lately. I wonder why, wink, wink;) I guess Russians prepare a warm welcome for German Leopards and British Challengers. Actually, RIA makes a slight mistake--2A82-1M has a range of 7 kilometers shooting ballistic munitions and 12 kilometers when using ATGMs, here (in Russian). Now recall all those rumors about Russians not being able to afford anything and T-14 being merely a show piece. Remember? 

Same was with SU-57, which is now being serially produced and used in air-to-air BVR combat with the score no Western fighter can even dream about. It is always the same in the West and it simply doesn't learn. In related news, now that it was officially confirmed, "military analyst" fanboys from You Tube and elsewhere should just stop their amateurish Clanciesque BS and retire. But they will not, because tomorrow is a field day for military porn masturbators. And as you know, all of them have graduate degrees in weapons design and military science... Nah, I am screwing with you))). But in the end Maverick and his indomitable F-14 are always at their service to alleviate a huge butthurt.

About Real Economy...

.... and Russia's shipbuilding.  Just some news:

В Большом Камне начались ходовые испытания танкера "Академик Губкин", построенного на Судостроительном комплексе "Звезда" по заказу АО "Роснефтефлот". Об этом сообщили 24 апреля в пресс-службе нефтяной компании "Роснефть". "Академик Губкин" является четвертым судном серии танкеров типоразмера "Афрамакс" в портфеле заказов судоверфи, которое было спущено на воду. Торжественная церемония имянаречения судна состоялась в рамках VII Восточного экономического форума в сентябре 2022 года. Ранее танкер "Академик Губкин" успешно прошел швартовные испытания, в ходе которых проводилась проверка и наладка бортовых систем и оборудования, был запущен главный двигатель танкера, проверена его работоспособность и готовность к выходу в море. После этого танкер был отшвартован от достроечной набережной, выведен из акватории верфи и своим ходом вышел в район испытаний, в рамках которых будут проверены скоростные характеристики судна и его управляемость на всех режимах работы.

Translation: Sea trials of the Akademik Gubkin tanker, built at the Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex by order of Rosnefteflot JSC, have begun in Bolshoy Kamen. This was reported on April 24 in the press service of the oil company Rosneft. Akademik Gubkin is the fourth vessel of the Aframax tanker series in the shipyard's portfolio of orders, which was launched. The solemn ceremony of naming the vessel took place as part of the VII Eastern Economic Forum in September 2022. Earlier, the Akademik Gubkin tanker successfully passed mooring trials, during which the on-board systems and equipment were checked and adjusted, the main engine of the tanker was launched, its performance and readiness to go to sea were checked. After that, the tanker was moored off the outfitting embankment, taken out of the shipyard water area and under its own power went to the testing area, within which the speed characteristics of the vessel and its controllability in all operating modes will be tested.

But sometimes seeing is even better than reading. Here is Academic Gubkin in person:

Aframax tankers are large 250 meters long and 114,000 tons displacement vessels. And if first ones of them have been primarily assembled from Chinese and South Korean "legos", the localization of the process at Zvezda shipyard proceeds apace. And, this is how this monstrous wharf looks today. 

In this picture alone you can see roughly 400,000 tons of displacement combined being completed. Zvezda's portfolio is huge and you can read some of it on their website in Russian.  The scale of Zvezda is absolutely massive but you wouldn't find much about it in Western media. 

 

As you may have guessed it, many in the West follow the constant growth and localization of Zvezda with anxious curiosity. When one has a dry dock which can fit easily two aircraft carriers of Nimitz (or Ford) class (485 meters long, 114 meters wide and 14 meters deep)...

Many in Washington and Tokyo are wondering if those damn Rooskies will begin to build aircraft carriers there. Well, I don't know, but, the rumors started to circulate that Peter the Great will not undergo modernization and will be decommissioned. You may have already guessed who spreads these rumors, but the response from Russian Navy was pretty clear. 

МОСКВА, 20 апр – РИА Новости. Тяжелый атомный ракетный крейсер "Пётр Великий" не планируется выводить из боевого состава флота и списывать, сообщил РИА Новости информированный источник, знакомый с ситуацией в сфере военно-морского планирования. Ранее ряд СМИ сообщил, прорабатывается вопрос о выводе "Петра Великого" из боевого состава флота, в связи с тем что опыт ремонта крейсера того же класса "Адмирал Нахимов" оказался очень затратным. "Тяжелый атомный ракетный крейсер "Петр Великий" не планируется выводить из боевого состава флота и списывать. Корабль может быть выведен в резерв для последующего прохождения ремонта с модернизацией, данный вариант рассматривается", - заявил на это собеседник РИА Новости.

Translation: MOSCOW, April 20 - RIA Novosti. The heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Veliky is not planned to be decommissioned and scrapped, an informed source familiar with the situation in the field of naval planning told RIA Novosti. Earlier, a number of media reported that the issue of withdrawing "Peter the Great" from the combat strength of the fleet is being worked out, due to the fact that the experience of repairing the cruiser of the same class "Admiral Nakhimov" turned out to be very costly. "The heavy nuclear missile cruiser Peter the Great is not planned to be decommissioned and scraped. The ship can be put into reserve for subsequent repairs with modernization, this option is being considered," RIA Novosti's interlocutor said.

 

Guess from three times where this rumor originated. This is the main reason I don't have TG channel and don't read them.  Do not forget also that Admiral Kuznetsov is due to rejoin fleet the next year and the crew has been largely formed and new air defense system (newest navalized Pantsirs are being installed) and C4 complex have been completely built anew from ground zero. 

We'll see soon enough what it will become after effectively being rebuilt from ground up, including serious update of propulsion. But, once the totality of shipbuilding news from Russia is grasped, one has to admit--not too shabby for a country with "economy in tatters". Here is you Monday shipbuilding primer.

It Was Long Time Coming.

Fox News is a RINO network, a euphemism for being a uniparty's propaganda outlet from "the right". Most of what is produced there is a Reagainite neoliberal fodder and pseudo-patriotic rah-rah, which would fit well Top Gun: Maverick type of reality. Tucker was a very lonely voice of common sense there. 

Fox News announced on Monday that the network and its prime-time anchor Tucker Carlson have mutually agreed to end their association after more than a decade. “FOX News Media and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways. We thank him for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor,” the US broadcaster said, adding that Carlson aired his final show last Friday. Fox expressed gratitude to Carlson “for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor.” Neither Fox nor Carlson have offered an explanation for the break-up. The network did say that last Friday’s episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight will be the last, and that a newscast will be aired in its stead starting Monday evening. Shares in the network’s parent company, Fox Corporation, slid by 4.7% after the announcement.

So, everything what happens now was a long time coming and is only natural. Was it a Dominion "thingy"? Likely but, probably, not the only factor in Tucker's departure. Very little doubt that he was a very serious media obstacle to narrative and that irritated very many people in what becomes increasingly delusional American political discourse. Fox could be congratulated with becoming finally a tabloid, as are all US MSM, while Tucker, I am positive, will find another platform. 

Larry Speaks The Truth.

When discussing this whole FUBAR with Hunter Biden and those 50 "intel" people who still pushed the story of those nasty KGB Rooskies running a psyop against Washington. 

There is only one teeny, tiny problem. They have no facts to back up their deluded judgment, supposedly based on years of experience. Just goes to show that experience without real intelligence is no substitute for competence.

Exactly! Will somebody ever answer for what has been done to the country? But then again, many voted for that.

 

My Latest Video.

How much XX century history was written in the US by Nazis? A lot, including a perverted view on strategy and operational art, much of which was utterly falsified and... taught in US military institutions as a fact. 

No wonder they cannot win wars even against grossly inferior enemy.

Guilty Mathematical War Pleasure.

Demonstrates beautifully the work of mechanical ballistic computers (Part 1) from the US Navy--a must see:

And modern (superb) explanation of mechanical integrators.  

As you can see, Jack Monaco in his presentation uses the same US Navy's training documentary. In the same time you can take a look an Space Navigation Indicator (INK) from 1970s Soyuz vehicle--also fascinating, here is Part 1. 

I highly recommend since the mathematics is explained beautifully and it also is the same math which is in the modern computing, despite its digital processing being highly advanced. But this is a great primer. In reality, of course, what is demonstrated here is not just mechanical but electro-mechanical computing, because it since 1920s involved the use of a huge number of electric machines.

An Impulse.

In therapeutic sense a large portion of the UTube is dedicated to coming soon, very soon, any minute now some sort of the breakthrough in developing of hypersonic for US military. Because of that, such videos like this,

gather millions of views of the same type of people who applaud each Musk's rocket explosion as yet another success which for sure, very soon, any minute now will ensure humanity's (meaning the US) travel to Mars and beyond. Russians launching shitload of stuff and people to space, evidently, is not as exciting as watching failures of dubious concepts being sold to the public as an achievement. Same applies to this video, which still didn't account for the cancellation of the AARW hypersonic program last month, and the fact that the US still doesn't have:

1. High impulse fuel, such as Decilin-M developed by Russians for their hypersonic weapons which allows them to maintain hypersonic speeds throughout the duration of the whole flight. Unlike it is the case with this "sled" in the video which is hailed as some kind of achievement, you can accelerate the thing at a 10 mile-long track to M=8 by all kinds of means. But you need a consistent high impulse fuel to maintain the hypersonic flight not at 10 mile long track, but more along a complex trajectory ranging from tens to thousands of miles. That's the issue. 

As we know, Impulse is a change of the momentum (mv) of the physical body, which is 

Obviously, this is for a simplified case when the mass of a body remains constant, in case of 3M22 Zircon its mass will be constantly reduced due to expenditure of its fuel (Decilin-M). Looks like the US is still in search of such a fuel. 

2. Even more important is the ability to control missile (communicate with it) and allow missile to use its targeting system. That is the whole other can of worms and this one Russia did solve. How? I don't know--I can speculate--but I don't want to. But I am sure a wealth of data from SMO on a successful use of hypersonic weapons by Russia will continue to contribute to constant improvement of such weapons and the gap will only grow, especially in the field of the powered hypersonic flight. Rumor has it, new versions of Zircons will have an astonishing range in excess of 2,000 kilometers and speeds reaching M=15. If not already.

But speaking of an impulse, in a larger, metaphysical sense--this impulse was applied to Russia after seeing a complete insanity in Washington in the last 25 years. Necessity feeds the progress, and Russians never treated weapons lightly. And often used most advanced weapons first. But unlike artillery shells, REAL hypersonic weapons club is so exclusive and technologies ranging from fuels, materials, electronics and propulsion are so advanced, that for now it is only Russia who has them and used them to a devastating effect in 404.

Scott Gives Updates.

A very good and to the point review. 

Yes, the party is over despite VSU accumulating forces in Zaporozhie region, trying to hide armor in the buildings of former industrial plants. Russia knows it.

Some Points Of Import.

First, we should start with Algeria contract with Russia about which Algeria Times broke the news a few days ago. Here is the summary (in Russian, use Google Translate) of this news in one of Russian media, and it speaks about the contract between $25 to $37 billion. When speaking about this news, not to mention a rather convoluted way it was allegedly signed, with Algeria's Defense Minister flying to... Brazil to use intermediaries to sign it with Russians... So, sounds really fishy. Moreover, last September Russia and Algeria DID sign $7 billion (still huge) contract and it elicited a serious butt-hurt reaction from Florida cabana boy Marco Rubio.

U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-FL) sent a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling for appropriate designation of parties whose significant purchase of Russian materiel enable Russia’s destabilizing actions. 

• “Russia is Algeria’s largest military supplier. Algeria is also among the top four purchasers of Russian arms worldwide, culminating with a $7 billion arms deal in 2021. Influx of money from any source to Russia will only further enable Russia’s war machine in Ukraine. Yet, sanctions available to you have not yet been utilized.”

• “I encourage you to take the threat Russia continues to pose to global stability seriously and to appropriately designate parties whose significant purchase of Russian materiel enable Russia’s destabilizing actions.”

So, when  Rubio complains about Russia being Algeria's largest military supplier, he doesn't lie.  Enough to take a look at Algeria Armed Forces to recognize an overwhelming dominance of Russian equipment, be those numerous MiG-29s and SU-30s, or Algerian Navy's submarine force--all of it is Russian-made--to see the pattern. Many Algerians, as an example, graduated my naval academy.

Considering the fact that the contract has been signed roughly in September 2022, 7 months since the start of SMO, one can easily foresee what is in this contract, whose content otherwise is closed to public, apart from traditional modernization procedures for a huge number of Algeria's T-90 and T-72 tanks. It is absolutely clear that seeing the performance of Russia hardware in SMO Algeria wants a lot of stuff, including the "graduation" from still superb S-300PMU2 to S-400, from SU-30s to SU-57s and things of this nature. 

Could it be that latest developments in SMO convinced Algeria to expand already existing contact? Certainly, possible. It is clear that performance of Russian combat aviation, especially in terms of BVR operations, are simply unmatched with SU-35s and SU-57 simply not allowing any combat aircraft from 404 to stay airborne any meaningful time after the take off. The performance of air defense is simply stunning considering the scale of SMO. Will Russia satisfy  increasingly growing appetite of many (do not forget Turkey) abroad for latest Russian weapons systems, which now demonstrated their combat effectiveness in real war? I assume Russia can ramp up production of export versions of such items as SU-57 or S-400, among many, in the mid to long term, or, rather, once hostilities begin to wind down somewhat. But we have to wait and see if this Algeria contract will stay at $7 billion or if it did indeed grow to this rather very large sum. There is little doubt, however, that Algeria can afford a long term contract of this scale. So, stay tuned. 

Another point of interest is Rostislav Ischenko's attempt to delve into Pentagon's calculations regarding SMO (in Russian). He concludes: 

Конечно, уровень американских политиков и дипломатов критически снизился за последние тридцать лет, но в распоряжении США остались вполне профессиональные частные аналитические центры, государственные разведывательные службы и, наконец, военные, которые, может быть, и не гениальны, но простому расчёту потенциалов враждующих сторон обучены — не бог весть какая сложность. Откуда же эта критическая ошибка, стоящая США практически моментальной потери надежды на победу в глобальном противостоянии?

Translation: Of course, the level of American politicians and diplomats has dropped critically over the past thirty years, but at the disposal of the United States are quite professional private think tanks, state intelligence services and, finally, the military, which may not be brilliant, but they are trained in a simple calculation of the potentials of the warring parties. - God knows how difficult it is. Where does this critical mistake come from, costing the US an almost instantaneous loss of hope for victory in the global confrontation?

And here where he makes a crucial mistake about "private think-tanks" and, even, the US military. He also misses the fact of a strategic miscalculation across the board because of... OK, I wrote three books on that and this blog exists now in its 9th year. It is precisely about the fact of not only incompetence of institutions Ischenko lists but also about operating with the data of the lowest reliability. It makes no difference explaining to modern young Wall Street broker, CIA officer and some Lieutenant Colonel from Pentagon that they do not have proper data, both on Russia and the US, due to a complete bunk of most models, be them economic or military, which are used in the US. I do not even mention those "think-tanks" which is a euphemism for pseudo-academic whoring and selling snake oil, especially in so far as the military realities are concerned. 

But in the end, any operational planning of the campaign the scale of SMO requires not only sheer numbers, it requires a profound understanding of the issues of combat effectiveness and proper operational criteria used in the planning phase and during the operations themselves. No NATO country, including the US has such an experience other than the white board theories, much of which have their roots in beating the shit out of "small fish" opponents.  

When one's planning is based on "then a miracle occurs" and on the assumptions that George Patton was a "tactical genius" one will always get Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and other campaigns of such nature with more than obvious results. And that will be you Saturday primer.

OK, People Are Starting Friday Things.

Arioch put up some The Allman Brothers. I know late Greg was a very not a good man but when people tell me about Southern Rock and mention Lynyrd Skynyrd (yeah, yeah, I know, Free Bird and this fucking Alabama thing) I always respond--Dicky Betts and Dan Toler's playing--try to repeat this live. 

So much feel, so much soul and virtuosity. And BTW, I am happy I saw Yes on their Fragile Anniversary tour in Seattle 20 years ago. Look at Jon--he is 78 years old and he sounds as fresh as he ever sounded.

But then again, Roger is 80 years old an he rocks arenas. I know, I was there in Tacoma. 

One of the best, ever.

Comrade Li Shangfu Had A Very Productive Visit.

To understand why, just take a look. Emphasis on WHO conducted this study and why it is published now. 

Chinese military study names TikTok among tech companies involved in ‘cognitive war’ on Russia

The study concludes:

A new study by Chinese military scientists named TikTok as one of several hi-tech companies involved in propaganda campaigns against Russia. TikTok stands out as the only Chinese-owned business on the list, which contains nearly 40 private entities from the internet, space, finance and AI sectors.According to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) investigation, TikTok has joined Facebook, Twitter, Google and other Western tech giants in offering a platform for cognitive war on Russia that has “greatly undermined Russian military morale” and eroded its international image.“Combat in the cognitive domain is a new, advanced form of warfare. It is also the highest level of human [war] games,” the authors said.

The paper was published prior to Li Shangfu's visit to Moscow and as article notes:

The Alliance for Securing Democracy, a US-based national security advocacy group, noted in a report last month that Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT had more TikTok followers than The New York Times. It also found that Russian news agency RIA Novosti’s top TikTok post this year gained more than 5.6 million views while its top Twitter post had fewer than 20,000 views.  

As much as I have issues with RT, there is no comparison between contemporary Russian reporting and a trash which NYT and its cabal of ignorant agenda-pushers "journalists", trained only to brainwash already confused American public, produce daily. Soviet time Pravda had more useful and, remarkably, truthful reporting than NYT which is dangerous even to be used as a last resort toilet paper due to a risk of getting a brain cancer or psychosis by the way of anal application after #2. So, no real news here. But it looks like some type of attitude adjustment "request" was issued to Chinese owners of TikTok. I, however, have only one issue with this piece of news--neither TikTok nor Facebook or any other social network are "tech-giants". Not even close. Real tech is not anymore in Silicone Valley. In fact, it left it long time ago. But don't start me on them and Musk's latest... if you know what I mean.

I Wanted...

... to write something sitrepish but then I found a perfect, even excessive description of the latest events. So, here is a sitrep. 

It is a succinct and highly professional intro to military strategy and operational art.

 

Me Yesterday.

First, with Alexandre Guerreiro:

Then, me discussing TOE and oil.  

Enjoy, if you will.

Mmmm, I Don't Know.

It is difficult to comment on that. Not that it couldn't have happened but there are some issues:

The Iranian navy intercepted a US submarine in the Strait of Hormuz and forced it to surface and change its course, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani told reporters on Thursday. However, the US has denied the claim. According to Irani, the nuclear-powered USS Florida was approaching the strait in complete silence when it was detected by an Iranian Fateh-class diesel-electric submarine. The Iranian vessel “forced this American submarine to come to the surface and cross the Strait of Hormuz on the surface of the water,” Irani said, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency. Irani added that the US submarine attempted to enter Iranian waters, but changed its course following a warning from the Fateh. The admiral called on the US to explain why the Florida attempted to violate Iran’s borders, and declared that American vessels “must observe all international rules from now on.” The US denies that the encounter ever took place. “A US submarine has not transited the Strait of Hormuz today or recently," the commander of the US Fifth Fleet, Timothy Hawkins, told Reuters. “The claim represents more Iranian disinformation that does not contribute to regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins added.

And here is the issue, which is confusing. USS Florida is an Ohio-class former Strategic Missile Submarine (SSBN, aka Boomer) which has been converted to SSGN, meaning that this old lady carries now 154 TLAMs and is specifically designed for primarily land-attacks with conventional means (Tomahawks also can carry a nuclear warhead). TLAM's range in its most popular version--Block III/ IV--is around 1,600 kilometers, so you can easily draw the circle from say Bushehr Nuclear Plant (a possible target for attack) and you will see yourself that to attack it, the same goes for Tehran, it is enough for modern SSGN to be merely in the Gulf of Oman (and Arabian Sea) never entering dangerous Persian Gulf through an extremely narrow Strait of Hormuz. Why would one do that? I know, I know--PR and all that, but ASW has its own logic. 

Moreover, no matter how good Iranians are, but I doubt that sonar and sensor suite on their single Fateh-class sub measures up to updated Ohio-class SSGNs which still remain one of the most silent in the world. This is not to say that they cannot be detected, they certainly could be and have been... by Soviet and Russian SSNs. But something tells me that even if the contact and even ping between Fateh and USS Florida has happened it didn't happen anywhere near Persian Gulf, plus... and here it comes--Iranian Navy has three Russia-built Kilo (pr. 877) SSKs and those for decades had a title of "black holes" in the sea due to their extremely low acoustic signature. And yes, those guys, have been involved in hide-and-seek with US Navy's Los-Angeles and Virginia classes everywhere around Russian littorals. So, could it be that Iranians confabulate? Absolutely! But could it be, considering a steady loss of competence in the US across the board, that someone wanted USS Florida in the Persian Gulf for PR purposes? Absolutely! So, don't torture me with the questions--I don't know. Otherwise I will get engaged and write massive posts on Operational Sweeps, Detection Probability Densities and other "lovely" ASW thingies with a lot of math... fade in the dark with evil laughter...

;)))

OK, I Don't Know If It's A Joke...

 ... or a result of continuous abuse of all kinds of substances in Holland, but I think Russians should apologize to Estonians for making jokes about Estonians being the slowest people on Earth. Now we know who are the slowest in the head, and they are Dutch (LOL) allegedly intelligence services. 9 years after the removal of the legitimate government in Kiev sponsored by the West, and months after the start of SMO, Dutch intel people finally noticed, LOL)))

The Ukraine conflict is really about a greater confrontation between the West and Russia, while China challenges the world order based on Western values, according to the 2022 annual report by the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) of the Netherlands. Published this week, the report claims that Russia sees itself “not only at war with Ukraine, but also at war with the West,” while the West considers the conflict to be “also about our norms, values, freedom and prosperity.” According to the AIVD, while Ukraine is the military battleground, to Moscow the broader conflict is “about geopolitical relations in the world.” Russia believes it to be an existential conflict and is trying to “undermine Western democracies,” the Dutch spies have claimed. More than just a military conflict between two countries, the fighting in Ukraine “suddenly accelerated developments that have been going on in the world for a long time, changed the relationships between groups of countries, and can influence how countries interact with each other for a long time to come. In short, it turned out to be a geopolitical system shock,” the AIVD said.

Then RT concludes:

AIVD accused China of wanting to replace the “international order based on Western values,” with a world order in which Beijing would be on top. The AIVD findings come as the government of Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced plans to restrict exports of semiconductor-producing equipment to China. The US has been pressuring the Netherlands to do so for months.

Per this chip issue. For China the horizon of closing most of its needs in chip manufacturing is year-two maximum, Russia also is investing heavily both in chip production and development of lithography. For Russia this horizon is around 2026-27. This is what I learned just recently from not just professional Sinologist but a person directly involved with microelectronics and who permanently resides in China for many years. As any "sanctions" activity by the West this too will end up in a complete failure due to the fact that those people are not very good in strategic planning and assessment of resources. 

But the question stands--where were those Dutch spies, under what stone were they sleeping to not know that Russians have been stating openly about the conflict with the West for years, including from Putin himself, be that... drum roll... in his 2007 Munich speech to Russia's December 2021 Ultimatum. So, I guess we now know who runs Dutch national security circuit and the only thing we can say is that they are dutch (look up the street meaning of this term;)) Or as Russian anecdote about imprisoned Indians goes: and only three years after imprisonment did the Sharp Eye notice that their cell was missing the outside wall. 

Pepe Expands...

... on this woken, not in Western sense, giant of which American Thinker wrote about a week ago.  

Pepe is correct, it doesn't feel like a war. But if Russia goes to war, a real one, nobody wants to experience that.

Well, They Voted For That...

 ... and considering the level of sheer cretinism in NYC it is only natural:

New York City will track the carbon footprint of residents’ food consumption as part of a sweeping initiative to decrease the city’s carbon emissions from food by a third this year, Mayor Eric Adams revealed on Monday at an event for the Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice. About a fifth of New York’s greenhouse gas emissions come from household food consumption, Adams told reporters, blaming much of that total on meat and dairy. Household food consumption is supposedly the third largest contributor to city emissions totals, trailing only buildings and transportation. The Mayor’s Office of Food Policy has ordered city agencies to reduce their food consumption by 33% by 2030, and Adams has asked private corporations to cut their own emissions by 25% by 2030, insisting New Yorkers’ wasteful eating habits cannot continue without imperiling the planet. “It is easy to talk about emissions that are coming from vehicles and how it impacts our carbon footprint,” he said. “But now we have to talk about beef.” City officials urged New Yorkers to put down the burgers and pick up vegetables and beans.  

Oh, I agree totally. Not only I support this measure, granted I am not a New Yorker, but I think organizing fart police which will sniff out the content of beef and beans in New Yorkers' miasma should also be introduced as a mandatory study subject (together with Gender and Greta Thunberg studies) into NYC colleges and schools instead of math, physics, chemistry and classic literature. This new police department will ensure that New York dwellers will meet their quota of celery and tomatoes as their main cuisine and will save our planet from those horrible emissions. I also suggest to build a wall around NYC because at some point of time this is how every US coastal city will look like, including the mode of transportation:

But at least they will save the Earth.

Larry On David Petraeus.

Frankly speaking, by now somebody should have told David Petraeues that he embarrasses not only himself, which is fine, but that his rants reflect extremely poorly on the US Army. As Larry notes, Petraeus was...

... interviewed by the Georgian Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and confirms, by virtue of his responses, that he is either one of the dumbest men to ever pin on four stars or one of the most intellectually dishonest. Perhaps both.

After that Larry proceeds to methodically demolish Petraeus' "arguments", which even a lieutenant fresh from a combined arms academy would simply reject as pure military amateurism. And Larry is spot on when he points out: 

I have two words for General Dave — Iraq, Afghanistan. What major victories did he achieve in those two theaters? The answer is none. And he was not up against entrenched forces, with artillery and HIMARS, and tanks, and he failed to defeat guerrilla forces armed with assault rifles and an occasional mortar. He has never been in charge of a battle against forces using combined arms. This is just one more example of his arrogance and lack of critical thinking skills. I am not shocked by the shallowness and ignorance of Petraeus. It is those qualities that enabled him to earn four stars through his skilled practice in the art of sycophancy. And I assume that some of his proteges, who are gifted with the same degree of incompetence, are in command positions ready to lead U.S. forces into disaster.

Exactly! No American military leader has been in real combined arms war for ages. Beating the crap from backward, bought out and demoralized Saddam's Army in 2003 is NOT a combined arms, it is beating the crap from grossly, if not grotesquely, inferior opponent--nothing more, nothing less. But even here we know the result. Read Larry's excellent piece at his blog.

Which brings us to this. The American Thinker magazine noted six days ago:  

The West’s sanctions, the most severe ever imposed on a country, were meant to teach Russia the lesson that “aggression does not pay,” in the words of NATO’s Stoltenberg.  The ferocity of the sanctions, the subsequent cancellation of Russian artists and athletes in the West, and expectation of an end of the Russian Federation by political and military elites such as Former Commanding General of the US Army in Europe, General Ben Hodges, shocked Russia out of its complacency, and led it to learn very different lessons: That the West was determined to destroy it, and that its existence required it to arm itself to the teeth and end its economic interdependence with the West. The sanctions on Russia awoke the sleeping giant that had been Russia, and the West may soon be faced with the consequences.

Meanwhile, Li Shangfu is having a great visit in Russia, all against the background of Russia's Pacific Fleet showing the support for this visit. Yes, both events are coordinated, so stay tuned for the results of this visit, which, I suspect, will be extremely fruitful for both sides. Do not forget--the US cannot fight China on land, it is rather risible proposition due to its total... impossibility. But naval affairs in the region will be heating up and there is opinion out there that soon Taiwan will have issues with its chip products due to China closing the gap very fast. This has major geostrategic ramifications. Excellent Russian Sinologist Ruslan Karmanov thinks that the US is very interested in getting Japan (and ROK) into the actual shooting war with China. 10 years ago it would have been 50/50--today, no chance. As Chinese curse goes--let you live in interesting times. We sure as hell do.

Looks Like I Stepped Into... Something.

With this Tony Shaffer's claims about Russian "Spetsnaz" being decimated. So, in order for me not to repeat an answer to a rather reasonable question by our very own Whoever:

This guy Tony Shaffer was asked to comment on report about Ru Special forces losses by Judge Napolitano. To this he said he wouldn't be surprised if that was the case because according to him during US occupation of Afghanistan American Special forces also took a lot of losses as well. I get what he is trying to get at. Reading your yet another "rant" about how Americans and the Westerners in general don't know anything about anything, what are you trying to get at here? What was your issue with Tony Shaffer said? The whole thing you write reads quite bizarre with respect to what that American said.

So allow me to elaborate. First about BS term "decimation"--NO, it is not used in this case as a description of Roman practice of executing each tenth soldier to prop up the morale of the troops. Here is how it is used in English language per Merriam-Webster: drastically reduced especially in number, destroyed or significantly harmed. So, it is being used by all kinds of users ONLY in this sense, since modern use of decimation is a euphemism for annihilation, destruction, disabling etc. of anything, military forces included. Now to a substance. 

1. Anybody who uses Pentagon's data, later amplified by the propaganda outlets such as WaPo or NYT, through the "leaks" as valid when relates to Russian troops in SMO should be immediately disqualified from expressing their opinions on the matter, due to:

2. Pentagon does not know much despite using developed ISR complex 24/7 since it already strategically miscalculated due to incompetence and lack of understanding of the modern serious warfare on the INSTITUTIONAL level. While there are, obviously, some people in Pentagon who do get it, the institution itself simply has NO modern experience of peer-to-peer warfare, let alone of such scale. Zero. In terms of losses of VSU--they are in shock in Pentagon because they cannot grasp the scale of it, which surpassed US losses in WW II. 

3. The signs of a strategic, in fact--historic in nature--miscalculation regarding Russia by the Pentagon are everywhere and they exposed it as a second tier in terms of understanding of serious operational planning, logistics, developing sound strategies et al. It is an international EMBARRASSMENT for them, hence...

4. "Ghost of Kiev" mode, which also continues in "leaks" whose only purpose is for the internal consumption, hence gross deliberate underestimation of VSU losses and a palliative therapy in terms of propaganda re: Russian losses. Even those in US military who kinda get it what is going on are still largely incapable to come to terms with what they observe. It is spurred partially by withdrawal from the American XX century military mythology, partially from sheer professional envy and jealousy. 

5. Comparing operations of US special forces in Afghanistan to those with SSO (Forces of Special Operations) in Ukraine is down right BS. US special forces never operated in the combat environment which is even remotely comparable to SMO. Not even close. 

6. Do Russian SSOs sustain losses? Absolutely, but my sources tell me that those losses are within anticipated level of losses which is not even close to "decimation". Moreover, no SSO forces are even leading or are on the cusp of any combined arms formations who bring to battlefield and immense firepower, which SSO do not have and it is not designed for their primarily recon-diversionary MO. Ukraine is NOT Iraq or Afghanistan--there is NO comparison whatsoever. But whatever works for Pentagon, whose most important skill, as historic records demonstrate, is not so much in winning wars, as in propaganda and making money. 

Thus, many people on the American side, including not necessarily bad people, and former military professionals, still struggle and try to cling to even militarily not very competent "leaks" whose main purpose is to be used in the internal political struggle in Washington and to "soften up" numbers which terrify those military and intel professionals in Washington who didn't lose their professional integrity and try to operate with real facts and numbers. I thought I made it very clear in my post, but since some people, understandably, had questions, here is my (partial) response. 

And yes, among my friends were people with serious special forces background, comes with the territory when you are present or former military professional. In conclusion: for those who don't know--we, as graduates of naval academies in USSR, as is true today, had second specialty which is "a commanding officer of tactical unit of naval infantry". Number of my classmates and acquaintances went to Chechnya where they successfully commanded formations starting from regiment and up in combat. Sadly, some of them have been killed. And yes, I am appalled by the level of ignorance about Russia and her Armed Forces which has been exposed on the American side--shocking. But that also explains why the US cannot win any wars.