Friday, February 23, 2018
Somehow I Like These Girls.
There are Cossacks in my lineage, and I have to admit--Russian women of any lineage could be gorgeous and, well, it is Friday--see for yourself:
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Self-Destruction.
No, no, not self-destruction of Adam Schiff--the man has no honor nor any other redeeming human qualifies and is basically a low life. There is nothing human left in him to destruct. To come up with this: that Russians "love" 2nd Amendment of the United States Constitution because Russians would love nothing better than Americans killing each-other--this has no name.
This is America's self-destruction. It is a complete moral and psychiatric implosion unparalleled in US history. It is a complete certifiable madness. This madness originates with Obama Administration, HRC, Democratic Party and RINOs, together with rogue elements in the so called Intelligence Community and US mainstream mass media. This cabal of hysterical psychopaths will throw under the bus everything else what is left good in America and will risk a war if needed, just to cover up what they were up to trying to remove President Trump as lawfully elected POTUS. Russia is a perfect, in their mind, enemy which is supposed to "unify" the nation. Anything goes as long as this smoke-screen obscures the real deal of State Treason which is being still perpetrated in a fight for America's future, any future.
If they "win", the United Sates will be eventually turned into completely totalitarian state (it is happening already) with brainwashed population and further descent into the third world hell-hole status. Obviously, Russia will be blamed for that. Eventually 9-11 will be blamed on Russia, the same as Challenger disaster and this time is very near.
As I predicted:
I am beginning to suspect that these morons are ready for a Hot War and it is not surprising--all their life they served only their own interests and looked down at deplorables as mere obstacle on their way to absolute power. Add here that most of them never served a day in uniform and have no grasp of what violence, let alone warfare, can bring in the face of many of them qualifying perfectly for judicial proceeding which will result in prison sentences--they will be ready for anything. Waiting for Nunes' new Memo, I only hope that he is well protected--I know he is not alone among true American patriots.
A Curious Poll.
Sputnik, the subsidiary of Ria, has recently conducted an interesting poll (in Russian). Number of Europeans from four EU nations--France, UK, Germany and Poland--were asked a simple question: if Russia is a European Country. Responses are shown in this graph. Since it is in Russian--white numbers (and segments of pie-charts) stand for "Yes", solid color (orange) is for "No", the rest is for "Don't know".
French turned out to be most decisive in rejecting Russia as a European nation, Britons were second, but it was Germany where Russia, albeit with minimal advantage, is considered to be European, with Poles overwhelmingly viewing Russians as European people. I want to forestall immediately all those "pattern seekers" if they would decide to "see" a purely geography/distance factor as a "pattern". It is not. In the end, geographically France is closer to Russia than UK, yet, it is in France where minimal number of people view Russia as the European nation.
Russians' response in comments was overwhelmingly predictable and it could be reduced to this: "Yes, we are not "Europeans" in Europe of France and UK." This is precise answer since neither UK nor France are European anymore, unlike, say, Poland and Poles who really do know who they are and what they want. I may disagree with Poles on many geopolitical and history issues, but Poles sure as hell know that they are predominantly white, Christian (Catholic), European people who still treasure their mono-culture and cultural heritage, and this heritage is distinctly European. The "Europe" of France and UK, on the other hand, is a multicultural cloaca, with post-Christian relativist "morality" and dumbed down population which was completely emasculated and racially and culturally deluded. The only things "European" France or UK have left are some architectural places, some graves of Europe's greats and some sweet memories of once cultural and intellectual greatness. That is about it. France is long ago not a whole country--with her South being Islamized with increasing speed. Marseilles is not a French city anymore, it is Islamic Arab crime-ridden shithole, with Paris' suburbs being run by Muslim gangs and it is really preposterous to view France as a "European" nation. Same goes for UK with her own version of post-greatness syndrome and with having no guts to even deal with wide spread pedophilia and wholesale rape of underage girls by Britain's generic "Asian men". I think UK still has many of those undiscovered culturally diverse towns and other localities, so--stay tuned. But with Muhammed being now the most popular boys' name in London, United Kingdom can look with optimism into her even greater even more "European" future.
Germany is a complex case, but Germany has some serious factor which plays for her in a long run, but I will avoid discussing it here. Enough to say that Germany's undisputed claim to European economic dominance can not be sustained with her current cultural (and economic) policies. So, unlike France or UK, Germany will face or is already facing this choice--to continue to be what she is today and, inevitably, fade into the obscurity, or undertake a number of policy-adjustments in order to remain economic (and political) locomotive of Europe. So, I have to agree, in this case, with French and Britons--Russia is NOT a European state in a modern sense, since Russia is European in the most profound European sense, which was rejected by France and UK. As Edurad Limonov succinctly observed recently, it is Russia which is a real West today. I can only quote myself here:
Until this geopolitical fact is understood and internalized, that Marseilles, London or Brussels are not Europe anymore, no serious discussion on Pan-European Entente is possible. This is not to mention European limitrophes such as Poland, Baltic States or even Sweden who in their Russo-phobic insanity will do their utmost to impede such a discussion.In the end, it is not enough that St.Petersburg features constantly in all public (such as Trip Advisor) Top 10 European tourist destinations, St.Petersburg is actually officially recognized as Europe's Best Tourism Destination. Again. If you get my drift. In the end, Russian Police, unlike its French counterpart, doesn't flee armed mobs, it shoots back and gets it under control and restores the order--that is why Russian cities, especially large ones, are safe. In the end, one has to see St. Petersburg, or Moscow, or Sochi, or returning back to life Sevastopol and Crimea, or Vladivostok, or visit Peterhof to understand why Russians do not care about the place once known as Europe--because they can say I am Russian and be proud of it, especially in the place which was never conquered.
Friday, February 16, 2018
Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant.
Remember a couple of years ago I posted this thing?
Run To The Hills, The US Military Is Doomed. No, Wait...
Well, nobody anymore denies a set of very real force structure, readiness, technological and operational problems and challenges US military faces. After all--a lot has happened in the last two years, not least strategically but I still stand by my assertion:
1. US Armed Forces still remain the most potent force in the world, especially US Navy.2. American soldiers and sailors are among the best in the world.
I periodically browse The National Interest to mostly get a chuckle or two and, if I am lucky, to catch some redeeming (for TNI) and competent thoughts of Lt.Colonel Daniel Davies. Today I stumbled upon Harry Kazianis' a pearl of a strategic thought titled in a good tabloid tradition of TNI:
I don't know what American military "experts" mean when they talk about "WAR" but instead of writing some long text Kazianis could have limited himself to a two very simple points:
1. Non-nuclear war (controlled escalation to a threshold) between China and US in the air has 50-50 percent chances of either side "winning" in China's vicinity.
2. The same, but naval confrontation... and here, with all my deep respect to Chinese culture and strides in modernization, PLAN is simply NOT a competitor to US Navy beyond the First Island Chain and the issue has NOTHING to do with a number of DDGs or CBGs. The issue is plain and simple THIS:
To be a real contender--one MUST have a world-class nuclear attack submarine component and here the US Navy holds an overwhelming superiority over anything PLAN has both quantitatively and, most importantly, qualitatively in its nuclear power sub inventory. Yes, PLAN did declare recently on a number of occasions that its newest SSNs in terms of quieting begin to catch up to first versions of Project 971 Akula and Los-Angles-class SSNs. But quieting, while being very important, is just one of many things which are required for a nuclear sub to be a true killer weapon. Once fleet gets away from A2/AD zones controlled by modern SSKs which guarantee against penetration of something like Virginia-class SSNs, such fleet will require a top-notch SSN, SSGN escort--PLAN doesn't have this. Plain and simple. There are also some very serious issues with Chinese ASW.
Yes, China may (MAY) hold an advantage deep within First Island Chain over US Navy and she may even increase this advantage but PLAN has no realistic way of surviving US Navy's nuclear subs in any remote or blue water zone. But Russia is not selling her Project 885 Severodvinsk nor is sharing with whatever work is being done on what is known today as Husky unified SS(G)N--SSBN platform. Here, China will have to develop a true competitive technology on her own. Doing so in nuclear power submarines field is immensely difficult, expensive and it takes time. And while amateurs point their sights towards US Navy's visually impressive CVNs, currently what dooms PLAN and completely prevents it from any serious challenge to US Navy in a remote ocean zone is underwater and is not heard or seen.
On the other hand, any land combined arms war against China in her vicinity will see US Army decimated and ultimately ground to a halt or defeated in a conventional conflict, no matter what advantages US has. No matter if a Chinese Army is "unprofessional" as Kazianis states, since Chinese will be fighting for their motherland, which US military "professionals" never did in their life and that changes a lot. So, the only thing which comes from this is a need to really find some kind of peaceful arrangement between big kids on the block. No matter how good is US Navy, and it is, despite its problems, a magnificent force, the United States is not in a position anymore to dictate anything to anybody as it was the case 20 years ago. This time is simply gone.
On Florida Atrocity, A Thought.
Remember Allen Armentrout? Remember this kid with Confederate Flag and uniform?
I may not condone what Confederacy stood for but here is the kid who already, in his young age, is a Man, a real man and he doesn't even look like what became an image of a "man" in modern day America. The kid is overweight, doesn't wear cool gadgets, doesn't wear a douche-bag beard or narrow sunglasses, but I would go with this kid into battle anytime. He took upon himself to make not an easy choice of facing a crowd of deranged SJW imbeciles and stood his ground. That is what defines a real man. Not some physical features, not how cool one looks or how much money one makes, or how many sluts he nailed down--but only by what decisions and responsibilities a man takes.
I saw in my life the most unremarkable, run-of-the-mill guys, who wouldn't pass for "anybody" in modern American culture, doing things and exhibiting fortitude and heroism as if it was a normal thing. That is what makes a man. A famous Russian meme was circulating for a while around the net.
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| It Seems We Started To Forget How The Real Man Should Look Like |
You may ask what this has anything to do with the atrocity against school kids in Florida two days ago? It has everything to do with it. I am heartbroken for kids, I cannot even conceive what agony their parents are going through--the worst nightmare of any parent, to lose a child. Yet, it doesn't matter how heartbroken I am, there is also no denial that mass-executions of school children in US, starting from a nightmare in Columbine HS, are becoming now almost a routine. A terrifying routine. Obviously the United States is not alone in this horrifying statistics, but it is namely in the US where those massacres have become an expected occurrence and they are massive. And here is what I think about it. No, this is not the issue of a gun control--it is the issue of an American culture which was feminized to a dangerous degree.
Ask yourself a question, what is this--a planned execution of the unarmed innocent kids? Is there a term which applies to this insanity OTHER than traditional mental illness of perpetrators, most of whom, somehow always seem to be very rational in planning and carrying out their evil deeds? Hardly a sign of mental illness. The answer to that which I have is very simple--they throw a tantrum. They snap and then in one form or another carry out their (always "justified") rage against innocent. The reason for that being that meaning of what it is to be a real man has been completely removed from the American culture by ultra-liberal feminazi establishment which fights any manifestation of a real manhood, since sees it as a threat to itself. In some sense, many (not all) American males' infatuation with "military porn", American football and, to a degree, weapons is often an obverse side of an almost total emasculation of, at least, American urban so called male population. Real men do not kill innocent.
Football, most of them dumb-asses, players are viewed as a visual representations of gladiators of the 21st century, military porn and action flicks most of which today wouldn't pass even the lowest of the lowest standards for realism and any rudimentary story logic, the same as masturbatory attitudes by many towards weapons--all of this is an obverse side of emasculation which reigns supreme in a large swaths of an American male universe. Truth, however, is very simple: real men do not have "anger issues", real men control their emotions, real men treat women (not some deranged cunts) with respect and never allow violence, and real men, most importantly know how to face and live with the consequences of their actions. They do not become Metrosexuals. It is this foundation on which people such as Major Filipov or Allen Armentrout grow. It is precisely this foundation which increasingly being substituted in the US with feminazi notion that throwing a tantrum, being everything about me-me-me and me being the center of the universe, is the only normal way to handle anything which one doesn't like. It is a radically anti real man notion. Come to think about it--it is not even real woman notion. Exhibitionism--a driving force behind radical (I stress--radical) feminism is also in the foundation of those young murderers' insatiable desire to become famous, to surpass each-other in the number of innocent executed victims. This is a radical anti-man notion. Real men do things for a duty and honor, not for the part in a commercial. That is why often true heroes go unnamed or unnoticed. Throw in an overall virtual and real violence of an American culture--and you get the portrait of an average American school mass-murderer: an emasculated pathetic loser ready to throw a tantrum because most of them do not have any concept of what it means to be a real man, or, in a larger sense a real human. Current American culture almost completely denies this option for youngsters. That is what new generation is being drown into:
But that is just one my thought, a very subjective one, on this whole tragedy. Guns, of course, will always be blamed and a lot of fake concerns and tears will be paraded around by the American media clowns, who, of course, always know everything and contributed mightily to this degenerating culture of emasculation, self-entitlement and self-obsession. Real men need not apply.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
A New (Old) Normal.
Obviously the recent scandal in Dutch Kingdom with its Foreign Minister lying about Putin (and Russia) in 2006 didn't make huge headlines and this is the way it is supposed to be since it is normal.
You see? No biggie. I don't know what kind of bacteria killing hands sanitizer will Lavrov use after shaking hands with this Dutch loon, but it is patently clear that BSing about Russia long ago became a Modus Operandi for Western media and political "elites". In fact, as this blog documented for years now, it is a new (or old) normal. This is the only way it is supposed to be. As an example, let's say I want to become Newsweek or NYT Russia "expert". How can I do this? Easy! I need to write an "analytical" material on how I had an access to top secret KGB (GRU, FSB, MVD... whatever) general who told me about plans to subvert US Presidential Elections... oh, wait--it has been done already. I am sure Christopher Steele met very many "top" Russian generals from all those organizations and they told him about Russians interfering in the elections.
But jokes aside, this is not new in the West. As was noted in 1988 by Whitman Bassow in an
openly apologetic work for a drab, at best, US journalism in the USSR, The Moscow Correspondent:
"Thirty years ago as UP correspondent, I met a middle-aged Florida couple in Metropole dining room who were astonished that the average Russian seemed so well dressed. "Why," exclaimed the woman, "they even wear fur hats!" The American scolded me for not reporting such important news. I countered that I frequently wrote features on women's styles, clothes, and shopping in Moscow but that not a single editor on the thousands of newspapers served by the agency would print a story, if I did write one, that a quarter million Russians walked down Gorky Street today wearing shoes. Americans, I said, should have learned in high school, not from the pages of their local newspaper, that Russians wear coats and hats."
So, the proud tradition of lying about Russia and Russians didn't go away with the end of the Cold War, it only reinforced itself and, in some sense, it is good, since leaves no illusions about kind of people who today define West's foreign policy. For Lavrov, meanwhile, I would suggest this brand--inexpensive and "kills 99% of germs and bacteria".
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| Only $ 15.88 for a pack of four. |
Yet, until there are still people like this Dutch farmer in beautiful Holland, who knows, maybe not everything is lost... yet. One may only hope.
UPDATE: I'll be damned--he resigned!
In conclusion, the thing which absolutely got me going was this in his BS:
The official claimed that he heard Putin talk about a “Great Russia” which included “Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic states,” while “Kazakhstan was nice to have” as well.
Overwhelming majority of Russians not only do not consider Baltic States a part of "Great Russia", but do not want to have anything to do with them. As bypassing their ports recently proves beyond any shade of a doubt. As long as they respect rights of Russians living there nobody gives a damn about them--let them eat their EU and NATO membership.
Monday, February 12, 2018
Winter Olympic LOL.
LOL. Those who don't know--the North Korean bob in this photo is good ole' Soviet P-15 Termit (or some of its derivatives) anti-shipping missile from 1950s.
Friday, February 9, 2018
This Guy Did More For Peace In Two Minutes Than Diplomats Did In Years.
Remember me writing about heroism of simple people doing their job when it is impossible to do it? Who in America today remembers T-4 Truman Kimbro? Who remembers today exceptional heroism of USS Samuel B. Roberts? Acts of ultimate sacrifice, such as Sasha Prokhorenko, burn themselves into national psyche. They make us recall what real men are. This week Russia honored her latest hero--Major Roman Filipov. Tens of thousands people came to honor him in a sign of spiritual and moral revival of Russia:
But it was this American former Air Force man who transcended borders by his pure humanity and did his small, in reality huge, part in conveying America which still is out there, which is down to earth, which understands:
Russian response was overwhelmingly positive and... human and it made all major networks' news. These are REAL news.
We all ask ourselves if we would have guts to do as Filipov did. As long as we question ourselves this way--we remain men.
But it was this American former Air Force man who transcended borders by his pure humanity and did his small, in reality huge, part in conveying America which still is out there, which is down to earth, which understands:
Russian response was overwhelmingly positive and... human and it made all major networks' news. These are REAL news.
We all ask ourselves if we would have guts to do as Filipov did. As long as we question ourselves this way--we remain men.
PSYRUS Got It.
A band from St. Petersburg PSYRUS really got it--using traditional Western cliches of Russia--vodka, balalaikas, Russian dances--they clearly laugh at insanity of the Russiagate and do it in style. The only thing which is left at this moment is... laugh.
P.S. Now you know where those proverbial Russian hackers are--they are on Mars. LOL.
Thursday, February 8, 2018
Not Really A Surprise.
Hindustan Times reported this on January 20th :
800-km range BrahMos missile to be tested this year
As the newspaper reports:“The Sukhoi has a range of 3,600 km. Arming it with an 800-km range missile will increase its reach tremendously, and even more, considering the option of midair refuelling,” the official said.The missile’s land and naval variants are already in service. At least two Su-30 squadrons with 20 planes each are likely to be equipped with the air-launch variant BrahMos missile, 500 kg lighter than the land/naval variants.Two Su-30 jets have been modified by the Nasik division of the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to carry the 2.5-tonne missile that flies at nearly three times the speed of sound.
BrahMos, being a derivative of Russia's P-800 Onyx missile, pretty much demonstrates an inexorable step of anti-shipping missile weapons' development, in which range and speed will continue to increase dramatically. Part of the answer to this development is, of course, in fuels and materials. With hyper-sonic Zircon 3M22 being already in IOC stage and having new, very high impulse, fuels developed for it, it is no surprise that very soon, if not already, we will see high supersonic weapons such as Onyx being capable to cover distances in 1000+ kilometer range and that changes naval warfare completely. Just to give an idea what it means to search and "secure" (in civilian lingo) the area of operations for, say, Carrier Battle Group, we may say that it will require a coverage of the area: 3.14 x 1000^2= 3 140 000 square kilometers, within which the salvo of such missiles can be launched by a single or combination of platforms. This is about the size of India and only if the launch is done by submarine or surface ship.
So, you get the idea. Modern space and over-the-horizon reconnaissance systems can provide real time picture of the surface and targeting pretty reliably. And then, of course, comes the issue of missile-carrying aircraft's ranges and that gets us altogether into the very remote sea and ocean zones. For India and her Armed Forces such a capability comes very handy if one considers that India views Indian Ocean as her internal lake and is not very happy with China being present there. In related news, as Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov stated two days ago, Russia's Pacific Fleet will get all four modernized Project 949A Oscar-II SSGNs by 2021, with the first modernized one, Omsk, delivered this year, one year earlier than planned. Each of those subs will carry 72 3M14 and 3M54 Kalibr-family missiles and who knows what else--we may only speculate.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Nunes Memo Revisited.
Things, as you may have noticed, are getting really interesting around this so called Russiagate story. I am not going to repeat points which many other, and way more competent than me in US Intelligence Community, people already stated. Among them are excellent pieces by both Publius Tacitus, at Colonel Lang's blog, and Phil Giraldi. I may add here only some points which I also already made on Colonel's blog. I repeat:
1. The significance of Nunes' (and not his only) Memo is not even in what is stated there--this to some degree was already known to many who had any brains left. Its significance is in staking out the framework of further development of the events and it is in making sure that they revolve around single and strategically crucial pivot of a clearly bogus contrived "dossier" which was the main reason for initiation of this whole anti-Russian and anti-Trump sabotage campaign. Now, after Memo was outed, no matter what amount of procedural and legalistic BS will be and is already being thrown around, the Memo, like those proverbial 95 Theses by Martin Luther, is nailed to the doors of a cathedral and can not be avoided.
2. It is clear that the depth of conspiracy is astonishing and most of Russiagate is built on lies, rumors and shoddy "intelligence". I personally have all reasons to believe that the so called "Russian government sources" which Christoper Steele claims are not really Russian government nor real sources. Steele's short stint in Moscow in 1990-92 at the height of the post-Soviet collapse and chaos by definition limits his claimed "contacts", rezidentura or whatever one calls it (a "network") to a collection of odious and now largely absolutely irrelevant political and intelligence figures who only go by this title of "sources in Russian government" in Steele's fairy tales. Steele certainly has no access whatsoever to any political, military or intelligence level in Russia which matters in current Russian government for a very simple reason of the whole framework: as events starting from 2008 has shown Anglo-American Intelligence apparatus is, well, not good. If the whopping intelligence-political failure to "handle" Russia is not a proof, then I don't know what is. If they couldn't predict something what was happening openly, in their faces, why would they be any better on anything else. As Phil Giraldi stated himself, CIA simply unlearned how to spy.
3. Most (there are, I assume, some exceptions) HUMINT sources in Russia for people like Steele can only be limited to already well known uber-liberal pro-Western "tusovka" which, while being an openly anti-Russian, exhibited itself to be also profoundly anti-Trump during election season. Apart from some Ukrainian angle in this whole story, I wouldn't exclude at all that some of those "Russians" who helped Steele to concoct his cocktail of BS could, indeed, be involved for a number of Russian internal political reasons plus making a "favor" for who they perceived at the time to be a winner of 2016 US Presidential Elections, that is HRC. It is not a secret that there were some significant hopes pinned on Trump's victory among some segments of Russia's body politic too. I will merely quote Phil Giraldi here:
One truly very interesting aspect of the Republican memo that has been scarcely commented upon is that even though the mainstream media is continuing to exercise its dangerous obsession with Russia by demanding that the Russiagate inquiry should continue full speed in spite of the concerns raised by the Republicans, there is absolutely nothing in the memo itself that indicates that Moscow tried to recruit any Trump associate as an agent or interfere in the U.S. election. The raison d’etre for the Congressional and Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigations appears to be lacking. Perhaps it is all sound and fury signifying nothing, but Russia might in reality have done little beyond the usual probing and nosing around that intelligence agencies routinely do. If the alleged Russiagate conspiracy is never actually demonstrated, which looks increasingly likely, it would certainly disappoint the many American talking heads and media “experts” who have been making a living off of bashing Moscow 24/7.
4. Once the time for "review" of State Department, as Nunes indicated, comes we may begin to see not only legal, already clear, challenges to the American nation as a whole, we may start seeing a larger framework of truly global conspiracy to unleash Cold War 2.0 both for Clinton-Liberal-Globalist cabal reasons and for internal economic reasons too. One of those reasons manifested itself two days ago in rather "impressive" dive of the Stock Market--this is just a tip of an iceberg and it is not even the most important one. But about this--later. New bag of popcorn is in order as are safety belts.
Friday, February 2, 2018
OK, It Is Out!
As was expected: DNC ordered and paid for Steele's Trump "Dossier" which is a combination of obvious BS, hearsay and made up "facts". Steele was a desperate anti-Trump nutjob. But none of it mattered to DOJ which issued, time after time those FISA "permits" thus allowing to spy on Trump's campaign. All this legal atrocity was done with the blessing of not only DNC and Clinton's campaign but, as we may have guessed, of... Mr. Obama? In simpler terms it looks like that:
1. Let's create BS about Trump;
2. Let use this BS as legal grounds to allow spying on him and his campaign;
3. Let's blame Russians for all that.
Well, if someone is not going to jail for purely legal reasons, I don't know, then something is really wrong with America, and I mean really-really wrong, because in simpler terms, after the year of sabotage, media hysteria and lies, the only term which describes all that is a National Treason on part of Democratic Party. People behind this insanity are traitors to both US Constitution and to Americans. I am sure in coming days we will be hearing and seeing more and more "outings" of slime-bags from many agencies. Clinton Clan is a criminal organization. So much is clear at this moment. It is bigger than Watergate--much, much bigger since the implications are geopolitical in scale, not just internal. Get the popcorn...
UPDATE 02/03/2018:
As Foxnews just reported, the NEXT Nunes memo will be on State Department. Is it getting warmer, folks? It is. This is just the start.
UPDATE 02/03/2018:
As Foxnews just reported, the NEXT Nunes memo will be on State Department. Is it getting warmer, folks? It is. This is just the start.
Thursday, February 1, 2018
A Rather Gassy Business.
I am no fan of Boston Globe, the rag which gives a tribune to such shitheads as Scott Gilmore, certainly, can not even pretend to be any reputable publication. Here they come again, spewing a lot of hot gas on the issue of Russian gas, which America bought and is going to eventually resell as its own gas, to Europe which is in dire need for gas, and is ready to accept Russian gas, through gas-pipes of both Turkish Stream and Nord Stream, but enough about gas.
After that a lot of smug self-righteous Bullshit is written in this editorial piece, which is expected from most American so called "journalists", but here is an interesting phrase:
Policy makers have imposed a double standard, rejecting domestic gas over solvable concerns while accepting, with apparently no questions asked, the need for foreign LNG shipments with troubling environmental and human rights implications.
If one discounts a traditional fake concern for "human rights", what is highlighted in yellow is actually a very correct statement. Here we have to abandon loony ignoramuses at Boston Globe and concentrate on the opinions of professionals in the field of hydrocarbons. I am no professional in that but I know a thing or two about SLOCs and its reliability and, what RIA (in Russian) Dmitri Lekukh calls a "transport shoulder". It is a very good piece which, unlike Boston Globe's sappy sentimental crap, should be attentively read and taken into account. The piece has a symptomatic headline: To Rob Europe: Why Second Tanker With Russian LNG Is Allowed Into the USA. Indeed, why? Here is a spread, which is even more interesting against the background of my two-weeks old piece on Russo-Chinese Alliance and Northern Sea Route (NSR), and, of course, China issuing, a week later, her White Book precisely on a huge significance of NSR for China.
1. As Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak (BTW, the guy who actually worked a lot in real industries, such as metallurgy) points out: he is absolutely not "euphoric" about Russian gas arriving to the US. Since Novatek really doesn't care where the gas goes as long as Novatek is paid. As he astutely noted: once the gas is sold and resold, the gas molecules remain "Russian" but gas does not.
2. The issue, however, is in the fact of Russia's brand new immense LNG facility in Yamal changes the picture completely and, no matter how emotional some people in the US become about this fact--Russian LNG is competitive with the US domestically produced gas inside the US. Now we are going to Sabetta and this "transport shoulder". See the maps:
#1. European "shoulder" (for some reason "above" Novaya Zemlya).
#2 Asian "shoulder".
Is it getting "warmer"? Here Lekukh makes a very interesting conclusion: If Russian LNG is competitive inside US on a huge, trans-Atlantic, transport shoulder, what is it going to do to European LNG port facilities which are literally, in a global sense, positioned next to Sabetta. Remember American plans to sell American LNG to Europe? Well, good luck competing with Novatek. Lekukh, however, goes further and states, and I think he is right, that Americans are no dummies--they know all that. The trick is in globalization of the LNG trade which will make price for American LNG competitive, but also will make already very high energy cost component in European goods, extremely high thus giving US goods an advantage over European ones.
Here, the factor of Russian gas pipe-lines begins to weight heavily and Europeans know it damn well. It is not enough that French Total SA holds 16% of Novatek shares but even SovComFlot's first ice-class LNG supertanker bears the name of late Total's CEO, tragically killed in the air crash, Christophe de Margerie. She even carries de Margerie's mustache on her bow.
In fact, they know it so well, that Germany already issued permissions for Nord Stream-2 pipeline to be laid in her territorial waters. And then we have to take a look at those "European" LNG ports in.... sure--in Eastern Europe, that is in Poland, Lithuania and other US lap dogs of no economic weight or significance but who completely bought into this "diversification" scheme without doing even simplest arithmetic. One has to imagine the faces of their leaders when hearing and seeing the news of Russian LNG being shipped to the United States? Hey, Russian LNG is so competitive that who knows (and somebody knows, I am sure, wink-wink) that Poland and Baltic States eventually will have to buy Russian gas molecules as... an American LNG. Twice the price, of course. As they say "freedom is not free". The smell of failure is really in the air.
The situation is utterly comical and two main geopolitical questions today, especially after massive Russian intelligence delegation meeting with their counterparts in D.C., are this:
1. Will Russia "play" with the US to allow US enter global LNG Trade and thus giving at least partial competitive edge which may help US to partially re-industrialize her economy.
2. Will Russia, in the same time, back Europe to a degree needed to not let it lose to the US (and China), which, granted pathetic intellectual level and cowardice of European "elites" is entirely possible.
These are no bad problems to be faced with. I wrote two weeks ago about Russia's strategic fork. This is one of them. Now imagine this factoring into the larger game with China which has her own 9% stake in Novatek and wants NSR really-really bad. Once these factors are considered one can totally understand why Massachusetts Ukrainian community is so worried and is full of... gas, as they should. In 2019 Ukraine becomes irrelevant in the larger scheme of things and if Trump releases... I am running ahead of myself here, let's just wait and see.
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